Clearly, Trump is on top and he's been moving up. His rate of improvement has increased since the previous poll. But it's Cruz who made the big jump. He's support quadrupled since mid-October. He's now in second place, as Carson declines.
What's especially important about Cruz is that he's maintained a good relationship with Trump:
“Well it’s a good relationship,” Trump said of Cruz. “He’s a good man. He’s a conservative guy. He’s doing pretty well. He’s doing pretty well. Fortunately, he’s not doing as well as I am, but these are minor details. He’s doing pretty well and he’s said wonderful things about me and he actually backs anything I do, because we have similar views. He’s not doing this out of a weakness, he’s doing this out of a strength. He backs virtually everything that I said — wouldn’t you say... I mean, virtually everything that I’ve said he’s backed.”Cruz is the alternative to Trump who is least likely to provoke Trump to run as a third party candidate. This makes Cruz an especially compelling alternative for those who want a Republican to win the presidency and think the American electorate will balk at the too-weird Trump. Trump may almost be seen as paving the way for Cruz by developing the same issues and by making Cruz — who also has a weirdness problem — seem, by contrast, normal.
I wonder what Hillary and her people think, who they're most afraid of. Perhaps there are so many variables that it's not worth figuring out who would be the most dangerous opponent. I've assumed that they are most worried about Rubio. Rubio is attractive, but Trump seems to hate him. I'm thinking Cruz is more dangerous, because Trump will support him. And Cruz will be harder to argue with. Hillary is excellent at maintaining a steely demeanor and she could draw sympathy with the brutish Trump insulting her. With Cruz, she will have to engage in a much more active substantive, verbal way.
ADDED: Those who want a more moderate Republican candidate should be pressuring Bush to withdraw and back Rubio. That's what I recommended in October:
[S]omebody needs to emerge as the political mainstream candidate, and I think that person will be Rubio, sooner or later. Jeb Bush should figure that out and do something to help now, when it would be most helpful. Jeb's candidacy has failed. Not completely, not yet, but he hasn't built his poll numbers, he's lost ground, and his self-presentation has been weak. I like his mild manner, but it's "low energy," as Trump puts it, and, as I'd put it, just not competitive and forceful enough to gain ground in this field. Rubio, by contrast, has some combative heft.Things have only gotten worse for Jeb. He needs to wake up and do what's right. I've watched him on a couple of shows recently and am just dismayed at the weak impression he gives. Is he oblivious? He simpers and nods to the point where Meade and I just laugh at him. It's an in-joke for us that he keeps saying the word "garner." Three times in one short "Face the Nation" interview last Sunday. On ISIS:
[B]ut we need to lead in this regard to garner the support of the Persian Gulf countries, other Arab nations and Europe.... [W]e need to garner the support of the support of the Arab world....And on Trump:
He's -- he knows what he is saying. He's smart. He's playing you guys like a fiddle, the press, by saying outrageous things, and garnering attention.If Trump heard that, I'm sure he laughed. I'd like to see his Jeb imitation.
Look at how awful Jeb was on Bret Baier's show last night (sitting with the pundits, including George Will). Don't miss when he says "garner."
AND: The only reason to say "garner" is if you think there's something wrong with a very common word that normal people just go ahead and say all the time without thinking they need to rise above it. The word is: "get."
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80 comments:
Hillary is excellent at maintaining a steely demeanor and she could draw sympathy with the brutish Trump insulting her.
Is it truly possible to insult Hillary Clinton? I think I'd buy shares in a perpetual motion machine before I'd buy that.
I wonder what Hillary and her people think, who they're most afraid of.
Anyone who articulates the truth.
You think Hillary is afraid of Trump? My guess is that Trump's on her payroll.
Cruz would really be nowhere without Trump. I mean, Trump got people talking and thinking out loud about immigration and terrorism. So if people hope Trump drops out, Cruz will likely drop with him.
What I find interesting is the impotent hopes of the Bush people. All that money to spend. Why doesn't JEB donate it to a worthy cause?
Cruz is a great Lawyer with excellent verbal skills. And he is the only Conservative who has fearlessly challenged the RINO/Obama Alliance.
But Trump is the master communicator. And his message has already registered loud and clear in the minds of the entire country. Trump is so good at it that his speeches are only a repetition of his message with a new headline or two thrown in for flavor.
At this point so many people are embarrassed to admit Trump is controlling their thoughts that they are willing to take Cruz instead, thank you very much. The same Cruz the viscerraly HATED a few months ago.
"With Cruz, she will have to engage in a much more active substantive, verbal way."
Yeah, right.
Cruz has done what his constituents voted him in for. He knows the constitution, and will abide by it. He is a master debater, and has an audiographic memory. He loves America, and will do what he can to protect us. He is presidential, and he has my vote!!!
With Cruz, she will have to engage in a much more active substantive, verbal way.
Fundamentally HCs support is institutional, she has neither the charisma nor the political positioning to appeal to voters on the retail level. Her instincts aren't suited for these appeals because she's used to interacting with the far left (who control the institutions). Ultimately she's not good enough to appeal to the center without exposing her left wing beliefs.
Cruz has his own personal limitations, but I expect him to beat her. Conservatives will love watching him expose HC and so will ignore his off-putting style. Of the centrists those disciplined enough to focus on policy will watch him run circles around her. Voters influenced by his style are going to vote Democrat anyway even if they claim to be independent or centrist.
"Anyone who articulates the truth."
Trump isn't the best matchup then, because he's had some truth problems. Cruz will be super accurate. And he'll be polite about it. Trump will trigger a lot of people to feel an instinctive protective feeling that will benefit her. Ask Rick Lazio.
Althouse: "I'm thinking Cruz is more dangerous, because Trump will support him. And Cruz will be harder to argue with."
Cruz is caricatured continuously by the left but when you actually see and hear him in action he is easily the most effective candidate in the field in terms of calm, dispassionate presentation of a particular viewpoint.
Althouse: "Hillary is excellent at maintaining a steely demeanor and she could draw sympathy with the brutish Trump insulting her."
It's easy to maintain a "steely demeanor" when the "objective" press personnel who get close to you are basically members of your inner circle and your biggest cheerleaders.
This is very much akin to "no drama" obama who, only now, is sometimes on the receiving end of mildly challenging questions from the dems with bylines.
As for drawing sympathy with the "brutish" Trump, I've got news for you, the left will call any opponent of hers "brutish". Even Carly, who the press will have no problem behaving "brutishly" toward.
Althouse: "With Cruz, she will have to engage in a much more active substantive, verbal way."
If she does, that would be a first.
I've got news for you: she won't. And the press will go utterly and full "candy crowley" for her to ensure she doesn't have to.
Do we want the first old, tired and corrupt woman socialist or the first crude Dutch New Yorker? Hmmm.
But the first smooth tongued Cuban-Canadian? No.
Hillary prefers to face Trump by a wide margin for two reasons:
1. Gold mine of dirt on Donald in the public record. Nothing like that on Cruz; and
2. Hillary could provoke Donald in a debate and he could blow up. No way would that happen with Ted. He's faced SCOTUS numerous times and was a champion debater in college.
Cruz will crush her in debate. And he is certainly no more "weird" than Hillary. Or Obama for that matter. Obama wolho is becoming more strange by the day
Hillary has a similar problem. It is very difficult to see her without thinking that she is a conniving creep. This is a female image. She seems like a witch.
I keep hearing this Trump as a 3rd party meme and can't understand it. He pledged to support the Repo candidate whoever it is. That is more than Kasich and some others are willing to do.
I think it far more likely that an establishment candidate like Bush will run 3rd party if Trump is candidate. More to deny him the presidency than to get it themself.
OTOH, Trump does expect to be treated fairly and I don't trust the Repos to do that unless forced to. For example, the head of the NH party tried to get Trump off the primary ballot.
Yeah, want him to run 3rd party? Just keep that shit up.
John Henry
Weirdly, the only ads I hear here are Christie ads. I would guess that he's trying to position a New Hampshire comeback by advertising on Boston sports radio station, but it seems like a desperation move. And none of the other candidates are doing it.
Trump may almost be seen as paving the way for Cruz by developing the same issues and by making Cruz — who also has a weirdness problem — seem, by contrast, normal.
Right on the money professor. Trump actually makes Cruz seem soft. And in contrast to Hillary!, he's actually extremely intelligent and genuine.
Scott Adams pointed something out the other day that I had not seen elsewhere.
Business Insider reports that Trump’s favorability rating among Republican voters was 23% before he announced his candidacy.
In July it had climbed to 59%.
Today it is 69%. That means it tripled this year.
As the article notes, this is surprising because Trump has been a known quantity for decades, and people generally don’t change their minds about known quantities to such a degree.
In other words, his massive support is not because he is the lesser of 17 (or however many) evils. It is because the more people get to know his politics, the more they like them. The more they get to know him as a candidate, the more they like him.
If that hypothesis is true, it is a massive shift in the US political landscape. We have been voting for the lesser of 2 evils for as long as I have been alive. Obama v Romney, for example. Did anyone really think either was a good, competent, candidate for president?
Now we are supporting a superior candidate that we actually like.
Trump is still not my 1st choice. That used to be Paul but I think he is toast. I like Cruz a lot but I worry about his citizenship and the mischief that could be caused because of it.
I like Carson a lot too but wonder if he is up to the job.
I'd be OK with Fiorina too
So perhaps Trump is #2 or 3 on my preferences. I would certainly not mind if he won. Bush? Rubio? Kasich? Christie? No way. Hilary might be better.
We need to kill the beast. That is why I favored Obama in 08 and 12. Perhaps we are still not there yet. Closer but not there. Perhaps we need another 4 years.
John Henry
Blogger David Begley said...
Hillary prefers to face Trump by a wide margin for two reasons:
1. Gold mine of dirt on Donald in the public record.
Such as?
The bankruptcies? Note that those were Chapter 11, not 7. Everybody got their money back eventually.
Divorces? Who cares?
That he paid Hilary to dance at his wedding? Yeah, you pretty much have to pay all politicians if you are in business. "Nice hotel you got there, Mr Trump. Be a real shame if anything happened to the permits." Ask Bill Gates. He found that out in the 90s with the Netscape persecution.
So what else you got that has not come out yet? If if it has not come out yet when the Repos are freaking out about Trump, when will it come out?
John Henry
John Henry said, I keep hearing this Trump as a 3rd party meme and can't understand it. He pledged to support the Repo candidate whoever it is. That is more than Kasich and some others are willing to do.
No. In the first GOP debate, Trump said he would not necessarily support the GOP nominee.
Since then, Trump has become a flake on the question.
Kasich and all of the other candidates have been consistent: they support the GOP nominee.
Maybe it's wrong; maybe it's right. But Trump has been a liar from the start, and I expect him to lie his way all the way to November 2016.
Cruz will win too, I think. His ground game in the key primary states, I hear, is highly organized and motivated.
I noticed that too. Bush is always talking about America garnering support.
I want to ask him, "Dude, do even garner?"
Anyone but Trump.
For months, I have suspected a Trump/Cruz alliance. Back in the summer, I predicted that Trump would eventually drop and endorse Cruz. I don't know if there is an actual alliance but Trump has definitely been good for Cruz because Trump's over the top statements make Cruz's pure conservative stances, seem more tame.
According to Rush yesterday, Cruz said (yesterday, I presume) that if he was elected President he would appoint Trump to build the wall. That's political genius. If it was orchestrated with Trump, good for them, but if it was just Cruz's doing, he probably managed to poach millions of Trump supporters (the ones who are a little nervous about Trump actually being president) by highlighting the issue that resonates with the most Trump supporters, and effectively pulling it and the builder Trump into his administration. Cruz may be running the most masterful campaign we have ever seen. I realize that's a strong statement but it seems like he has been building slowly and steadily for months, may be on the cusp of a major breakout, and it may have been much more methodical than most of us have realized.
Didn't Cruz's father fight alongside Castro? Shouldn't that be a deal killer?
The 'Trump setting the path for Cruz' meme is missing one thing:
Cruz has nowhere near the Charisma of Trump.
Of course, it is a blow-hard type of Charisma for Trump, but he draws people to him. Magnetizes them.
Cruz does not have this card in his deck.
I am Laslo.
Cruz is a highly intelligent, thoughtful, patriotic man who would make an excellent president. He believes in the US Constitution, something of a rarity in DC these days! He does not shoot from the hip as Trump does, but rather gives well considered, intelligent answers to questions.
There are some who would question his eligibility, and I would have been in that camp myself except for one fact. The repeated election of BO has settled that question forever, as I see it. Cruz is far more eligible than BO has ever been, and we have seen the courts and the court of public opinion come down in favor of BO.
GO CRUZ!!!
I've got news for you: she won't. And the press will go utterly and full "candy crowley" for her to ensure she doesn't have to.
12/4/15, 8:47 AM"
Drago neither Trump nor Cruz are Romney. At the debate they will counterpunch as already demonstrated in the Republican debates. The Democrats with bylines just aren't that influential anymore. Hillary is an odd bird: she has none of Richard Nixon's wit, charm, smarts, abilities and yet she has all of his vices coupled with a sense of entitlement. As for the Clinton machine digging up dirt on Trump or Cruz, so what? Whatever they find or allege is still nothing compared to what is known about the Clintons. And both Trump and Cruz will endlessly run with that as well. Hillary is starting to look a lot like the Democrat's Bob Dole (although unlike Hillary compared to either Trump or Cruz, Dole was a better man the Bill).
Garner is a signal word to evangelizing evangelicals. They sow the word of God like seeds, to later reap a harvest of souls. Jeb's signaling that he's one of them, while Trump continually demonstrates that he's not.
It's like the "servant's heart" expression that so mystified reporters covering George W.Bush and Sarah Palin.
It seems to me that most amateur analysts are working within pretty limited bubbles. How do we know what appeals to people outside our social circle ? We are all each of us Pauline Kael.
And the professional analysts may not be much better this time.
Anyway, Trump at least seems to be able to reach down into the bottom two income quintiles that are usually solid Democrat, including it seems he is more likely to get substantial parts of the black vote.
Hillary lied and pretended her life was in danger in Bosnia.
She lied and pretended Chelsea's life was in danger on 9/11.
Was she lying to seem brave? For sympathy? These sort of lies, together with laughing "we came, we saw, he died", disgust many people. Many people will vote for the Republican nominee as a vote against Hillary.
I would enjoy a video of her laughing over Kadaffis death juxtaposed with images of the chos in Libya today. Vis of her shaking hands with Assad together with images of her calling for his death.
Bill finger pointing"I did not have sex..." with headlines about the blue dress.
The politics of personal destruction turned against the creators would be delightful.
I generally concur with Althouse's analysis. Los hermanos cubanos are each running the smartest long-term campaigns.
There is more supporting evidence for this by looking at the other end of the polls: the unfavorable ratings. Trump has by far the highest negatives among Republicans (although Bush isn't too far behind), and Trump's unfavorables among all voters make him a conspicuous long-shot to win the whole thing.
Cruz and Rubio have mostly avoided attacking Trump (or any of the other candidates unless it is to return some fire), and are nicely positioned to advance when (or if) Republicans get serious about winning.
@laslo wrote:
Close, but I believe you meant mesmerizes them: link
garage mahal said...
Didn't Cruz's father fight alongside Castro? Shouldn't that be a deal killer?
Aren't you fighting alongside the Castro Bros? The ones from TX.
Final observation. Cruz is the one whose debate style could be taken as a cold rational man winning arguements by mansplaining at a long suffering grandmotherly woman.
Trump gets a pass when he attacks a woman since he attacks everybody. And Making America Great Again is a vision that trumps feminist justice claims.
It isn't prudent for Jeb to keep using the word "garner".
Bob Ellison: "Since then, Trump has become a flake on the question."
That doesn't make sense.
Trump is simply employing rather basic negotiating tactics against the party establishment.
Whether you support Trump or not that is not a difficult concept to grasp.
> I wonder what Hillary and her people think, who they're most afraid of.
I think they are most afraid of Hillary.
Jeb is running as a nice guy at a time when people are calling for the sons-of-bitches.
Henry: "Weirdly, the only ads I hear here are Christie ads."
Have you seen the newest (and quick reaction) "Jeb" ads re: the war on radical islamist terrorists (or "courageous" warriors according to garage)?
Talk about not quite hitting the mark.
garage mahal: "Didn't Cruz's father fight alongside Castro?"
Yes, against the dictator Batista.
Then, when it became clear that Castro was moving to full-blown (cookie approved) Marxist-Leninist dictator mode, Cruz's father then fought against castro.
So, what have we learned?
Cruz' father will always fight against dictators of any stripe.
That's a great position to be in.
Not to the lefties however, assuming the lefties are sufficiently recovered from all that work covering up the latest islamist terrorist activity.
Argument by assertion:
Cruz is weird.
Now, that Obama of 2008 was not weird. His preacher just yelled God Damn America. And that was not a weird problem at all. That was normal.
Reality cannot mug some people fast enough.
Cruz is good. I'd vote for him. But the task is to win FL, OH, and VA. Rubio has the better shot. It will be harder for the AAs of the world to say Rubio "lost" them for some reason. The GOP needs both the base and the squishy middle. Solution: Rubio/Cruz. Appeal to the middle and mobilize the base. Immunize Rubio against going soft on immigration. Have Cruz do what he does best, i.e., tear the other side part. First all-minority ticket counteracts first-woman appeal.
Cruz has a "weirdness problem"?
@John Henry "The bankruptcies? Note that those were Chapter 11, not 7. Everybody got their money back eventually. "
Nope. Chapter 11 can involve a severe haircut for non-secured creditors and a haircut for the secured creditors. It just means that the business can continue to operate.
BTW, I heard that polling of Trump supporters has them shifting to Bush if Trump was to pull out and vice-versa. So, there's a strong name recognition component and immigration as the issue for Trump support.
"Cruz has a "weirdness problem"?"
He's continually portrayed as weird by people who don't like him and less committed people are receiving a bad vibe that may cause them to dislike him instinctually.
Here's a description of Ted Cruz from a couple years ago in The New Yorker:
"When Ted Cruz lies, he appears to be praying. His lips narrow, almost disappearing into his face, and his eyebrows shift abruptly, rising like a drawbridge on his forehead into matching acute angles. He attains an appearance of supplication, an earnest desire that men and women need to listen, as God surely listens. Cruz has large ears; a straight nose with a fleshy tip, which shines in camera lights when he talks to reporters; straight black hair slicked back from his forehead like flattened licorice; thin lips; a long jaw with another knob of flesh at the base, also shiny in the lights. If, as Orwell said, everyone has the face he deserves at fifty, Cruz, who is only forty-two, has got a serious head start. For months, I sensed vaguely that he reminded me of someone but I couldn’t place who it was. Revelation has arrived: Ted Cruz resembles the Bill Murray of a quarter-century ago, when he played fishy, mock-sincere fakers. No one looked more untrustworthy than Bill Murray. The difference between the two men is that the actor was a satirist."
'Cruz has a "weirdness problem"?'
I've seen an argument that everyone around him hates him. Anyone know if that's true? And if true, is it important?
"Cruz' father will always fight against dictators of any stripe."
It seems none of the elder Cruz's comrades in Cuba can corroborate his story of being a revolutionary. The younger Rafael takes after his fsther. Full of shit.
The KJV of the Bible only has "garner" as a noun, as in:
"Whose fan is in his hand, and he will throughly purge his floor, and will gather the wheat into his garner; but the chaff he will burn with fire unquenchable."
A more contemporary translation is:
"His winnowing fork is in his hand to clear his threshing-floor and to gather the wheat into his barn, but he will burn up the chaff with unquenchable fire"
Don't forget John Nance Garner, "Cactus Jack," who was Vice President of the United States — "A conservative Southerner, Garner opposed the sit-down strikes of the labor unions and the New Deal's deficit spending. He broke with President Franklin D. Roosevelt in early 1937 over the issue of enlarging the Supreme Court, and helped defeat it on the grounds that it centralized too much power in the President's hands."
And Eric Garner, who died in a much-talked-about police incident in 2014.
So Cruz is weird because of appeals to non-authorities?
Althouse, your weirdness is showing.
Remarkably appropos Urban Dictionary definitions for 'Garner':
Technically there can be two meanings, a garner can be someone who is mentally lost in a mystical realm. A garner can also be very dumb. This person is cocky and thinks they know everything. They lose every argument they EVER get into...
A [synonym] for fail.
A Garner is a person who [has] nothing bad about them but everyone thinks there is everything wrong with him.
Kennedy called Garner to wish him a Happy 95th birthday in the morning on Nov 22, 1963. Garner died in 1967 a few weeks before what would have been his 99th birthday.
He has lived the longest of any president or Vice President.
Cruz is the best debater in the GOP race, no question. Best in the Presidential race too.
Trump is the best at using and exploiting mass media. He understands, loves and plays to the camera. I don't really like the guy, but his ability to control the narrative while spouting 50% BS is pretty epic.
Rubio is probably second best at both of those things (OK, Carly may be the second best debater, but she's not really in the running). Rubio is sort-of GOP establishment, but on the conservative end of that sector of the spectrum.
I'd love a President Cruz, but I could live with a Rubio.
The age contrast between Hillary and either Cruz or Rubio would be huge. I do worry a bit that Cruz may press his advantage too hard in a debate and come off looking like a bully - I don't think he is one, but once he gets wound-up he can fall in love with his argument a little too much.
I'm happy to see polls like this because Carson, Cruz and Trump, three candidates I like, get an easy majority.
But why do you care, at this point, if Bush drops out? For the money? Because those people voting for him, even if 100% go for Rubio, its not going to help Rubio much. Bush is barely a blip right now.
I read today its not the establishment vs the non establishment for Trump. Or even immigration hard liners vs amnesty. Instead, its blue collar workers who support Trump vs white collar.
And it's those white collar guys who are panicking. But Cruz, despite the fact that the establishment hate him, is a white collar guy. He is one of them. Despite all the differences, Cruz is a guy they can get behind.
Trump they hate so much that they may just dump Bush and Rubio and get behind Cruz.
Hillary and her people are focused on the battleground states, which are the ones that matter in the general election. They probably don't see Cruz playing well in the battleground states, whereas they see The Donald, who has spent his adult life in purple/blue states, better knowing how to campaign for the independent and low-information voters in those states who will decide the election.
Hillary and Bill were the two biggest liars to ever sit in the White House. And the liberals loved them for it. Now, they're all hard-nosed truth checkers, pious folk who accept nothing except the honest God's truth.
LOL. And Gee, I thought "all politicians lie". Rubio lied about supporting Amnesty,he posed as being 100$ against and once elected turned out to be 100% for it. But that's OK 'cause Trump exaggerated the number of Muslim's dancing on 9-11.
Its the same old MSM Propaganda technique. Monitor a candidates every word, ask him a ton of gotcha questions, and then seize on any statement you can - no matter how minor - and twist the words to characterize the candidate as "weird" or "a liar" or "Ignorant".
garage: "It seems none of the elder Cruz's comrades in Cuba can corroborate his story of being a revolutionary."
We are all aware of how much a struggle reading and comprehension are for you.
It's why you barely scraped your way out of some backwater "high school" some time back.
It's cute that you keep trying though, despite your latest Islamic terrorist covering activities which have been shown to be just as moronic as all the rest of your activities.
Still, one supposes it keeps you off the streets at night, so there's that.
Again, you really should look into that night IT course in Madison. You might end up being a productive member of society.
One can dream.
I don't see anything here in the comments about Cruz's proven ability to run anything. Everybody is applauding his ability to debate and his knowledge as a lawyer. Haven't we had enough of a President with no actual executive experience and the judgement, or lack thereof, that comes with that?
@Sebastian
Cruz is good. I'd vote for him. But the task is to win FL, OH, and VA. Rubio has the better shot. It will be harder for the AAs of the world to say Rubio "lost" them for some reason. The GOP needs both the base and the squishy middle. Solution: Rubio/Cruz. Appeal to the middle and mobilize the base. Immunize Rubio against going soft on immigration. Have Cruz do what he does best, i.e., tear the other side part. First all-minority ticket counteracts first-woman appeal.
I totally agree with this. The only thing missing is, What to do about Trump, who leads both Cruz and Rubio.
I do not hate Trump -- to the contrary, I like him. He brings fresh, anti-PC energy to the race. He is unorthodox, but sometimes that's a good thing.
My concern about Trump is that his base is mostly comprised of blue-collar white males,and not much else. These folks deserve a solid voice, and I respect them. I would say, though, that Trump has very little appeal beyond this to the mushy middle, and, therefore, isn't the best candidate for the General election. Policy-wise, Cruz gives you everything you need from Trump, and more. Charisma-wise, Trump trumps Cruz, but charisma won't win this election.
Finally, I'm not saying this is set in stone. Iowa votes in less than 2 months. I think Cruz and Trump battle it out there; whereas in New Hampshire, Rubio and possibly Christie battle it out there with Trump. But, to me, it looks like Trump, Cruz and Rubio in some not yet known order.
Advance all he wants, he's a Canadian. Why vote for a real American when you can vote for a fake one.
Drago said...
garage: "It seems none of the elder Cruz's comrades in Cuba can corroborate his story of being a revolutionary."
Interesting comment since he's the one who made the assertion.
Summary: Garage debates self, both sides prove themselves idiots.
That takes a special class of troll.
He ran the AG office in Texas.
I suppose we thought everyone already knew that.
I'm in love with the idea that those who want a more moderate candidate have some mechanism to tell Bush to bow out.
We have our votes, that's it. And it hasn't been time for those yet.
How about a Cruz/Fiorina ticket? Cruz could do the big picture/vision thing, Carly could manage the nuts and bolts of the Executive branch bureaucracy.
Actually the NYT story on Rafael Cruz backs much of his story, particularly being a Castro partisan, getting arrested and beaten by the Batista regime, with testimony of others imprisoned at the time, etc. thats much more than I expected, given the source.
And the lack of corroboration of the rest is not a bit surprising given the confusion of the situation. Guerilla wars are not known for good record keeping.
And the sources are hostile. Cuban government sources are unsympathetic to their enemies, it goes without saying, and R. Cruz is an old enemy, one of the the "gusanos".
If you ask me it is more than good enough a vetting. Take it from me, getting arrested by a dictators security men and being beaten up is no joke. Getting murdered out of hand in such a case is 50/50.
Trump loves negotiation and the deal. And wagering it all. I can imagine him breaking the rules and going into the convention with his VP pick. Carson or Cruz. I wager Carson. Where he promotes Dr. C as being the heart of the next administration with him being the hard hitting take no prisoners head. Oh my.
Jeb is a geek. His a lot like his dad in approach and personality. His dad could get away with it because (i) older and of a different generation, (ii) genuine war hero, (ii) head of CIA and (iv) Barbara (you expect her husband to be a geek.)
Very different from Bush 43. You always felt that the inner frat boy/smart ass was going to break out. Just different.
buwaya: "And the sources are hostile. Cuban government sources are unsympathetic to their enemies, it goes without saying, and R. Cruz is an old enemy, one of the the "gusanos".
Well, would it strike anyone as odd or surprising that the left (embodied by garage/cookie/ARMeltdown) in the US would accept, without question, each and every utterance emanating from the bowels of any communist regime anywhere in the world?
The answer is probably no, simply because the evidence of western leftist lockstep worship of communist regime pronouncements is undeniable.
And lets face it, if Fidel showed up in any major lefty area in the US today, he would receive a "tears running down faces" standing ovation from them.
Interesting comment since he's the one who made the assertion
Cray El Flaco made the assertions about being some sort of revolutionary in Cuba. Not me. Nobody in Cuba knows what the hell he is talking about.
Cruz has "a weirdness problem?" The Professor is still so far to the left that genuine, committed conservatism looks like weirdness.
He is the only real conservative, Spengler likes him, and he's smarter than the rest.
Edmund said...
Nope. Chapter 11 can involve a severe haircut for non-secured creditors and a haircut for the secured creditors.
[emph added]
Perhaps they can But did any of Trump's bankruptcies result in haircuts?
I've gone looking a few times over the past 6 months and can't find any evidence that they did. Can't find evidence that they did not, either but the impression I get from various articles is that they didn't.
Caveat: By that I mean that everyone got their money back eventually. Just not when they were supposed to have and in some cases in equity rather than cash.
John Henry
Bob Ellison said...
No. In the first GOP debate, Trump said he would not necessarily support the GOP nominee.
Since then, Trump has become a flake on the question.
Kasich and all of the other candidates have been consistent: they support the GOP nominee.
Trump has always, including in the 1st debate, said that he would support the candidate if he was treated fairly. He signed a pledge, which I don't think has ever been required of any candidate ever in any party before. The pledge was predicated on being treated fairly. Trump has always been open about that.
I don't think he has ever said anything at all about running 3rd party, has he?
So has he been treated fairly? Any thoughts about the NH GOP chair trying to get Trump removed from the ballot? Not because he did not have the signatures etc but because he is not a "true" republican.
As for Kasich, specifically, on the morning Joe show last week or the week before he was asked several ways if he would support Trump if he was the nominee. He refused to say yes. He kept saying that trump would not be the candidate so he would not answer.
One of Jeb's folks outright said, in the past week or two, that if Trump was the candidate, he would vote for Hilary.
Why is Trump the only one required to make a loyalty pledge?
John Henry
I followed a link to redstate.com about the Berdoo shooting. At the bottom of the page, along with other clickbait, was a picture of a woman with breasts, including nipples, exposed and a link to a Youtube saying "Trump Signs Woman's Chest" So I look at the YouTube and the woman being signed was not the one in the thumbnail
The woman had a crewneck sweater or pullover, fairly normal. Low but not particularly so. Trump signed her shoulder in the video. You don't even see a hint of her bra.
Redstate called is NSFW and shocking.
Probably not the dignified behavior we expect from a presidential candidate but nothing that is not done hundreds of times a year by celebrities to their fans.
Video here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecWFyFWq9GU
John Henry
He needs to wake up and do what's right.
It would astound me to see Jeb do any such thing. I don't suppose you expect it either, your suggestion notwithstanding.
If you search the candidates for people who's egos would not sink an aircraft carrier, and who therefore might just barely be said to be running to advance the country's interests instead of theirs and their cronies', I admit only two possibilities. Three at the outside. Carson is sinking under a different burden - his evident naivety. I'm not certain that Fiorina is a waste of skin ala Bush but she doesn't look to be a finisher unless it might be for Veep. Cruz is the last with this quality. And he can win.
I'm in the natural constituency for Trump, white working class fed-up-to-here, but I'm not in that camp and won't vote for the Donald in any circumstance. The rest of us still outside Trump land are split up among factions and united, to this point, only by revulsion toward Trump as well as Bush and the nobodies. I'd probably vote, unenthusiastically, for Rubio but maybe not. He needs to shut up about how domestic spying is so misunderstood.
I figure, and fervently hope, that Trump has a ceiling somewhere under 50%. We'll see pretty soon, when the nobodies start dropping off like hemorrhoids constricted by rubber bands, whether sticking close and quietly working the fundamentals will win for Cruz. I never underestimate the likelihood that the Republican establishment will shit the bed. So I'm hopeful but not optimistic.
garage mahal said...
Nobody in Cuba knows what the hell he is talking about.
Apparently garage is both in regular communication with Castro and believes Castro speaks for every single Cuban on the island. Statistically there have probably been people less capable of reaching rational conclusions than garage but odds are against any of them speaking English.
Love it when leftist trolls give political advice to their enemies. The polls this year are more BS than ever, particularly the MSM ones.
My advice, candidates, be yourself, for what is hidden will be revealed.
garage: "Nobody in Cuba knows what the hell he is talking about."
LOL
You can really tell how discombobulated garage is from the collapse of just about every narrative he has been pushing that he copied from all the lefty fever swamp sites.
One can only marvel at his "performance" today after he climbed back out of his self-imposed temporary posting exile.
He's like a small wounded animal that's been cornered but has no available weapons remaining.
You could maybe take a stab at learning some things about Rubio's pathetic and dishonest record before jumping for him: he's not just a pretty face.
That Trump would even consider a third-party run I find contemptible. Have you considered that the reason we have a Clinton to contend with in 2016 is because of the third party run by Ross Perot over two decades ago?
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