March 12, 2014

"Last night was scary, Ann."

The subject line of email received just now from the Democratic Party.
Republican super PACs and outside groups rode to the rescue of a straight-up corporate lobbyist -- spending $5 million to tear down his Democratic opponent....

In a district that Republicans have held for almost six decades, we nearly pulled off an incredible upset thanks to grassroots support from Democrats like you -- but we fell short for one reason: We got outspent in a Republican district. 
But didn't the Democrats dump money into that race first? It was a Republican district, and the Democrats decided to try to pull off an upset, and that triggered a response from the Republicans, who ultimately threw money in there too. From the Washington Post today:
[Jolly] struggled to raise money in the campaign, lagging behind Sink, who unlike him, did not have to endure a contested primary that drained resources....

As a result of Sink's money advantage over Jolly, she enjoyed a head start...

GOP groups rallied to Jolly's side, spending some $5 million in an effort to narrow the financial gap, compared to about $3.75 million from Democratic organizations.
The Republicans stepped in and deprived the Democrats of a victory that they were hoping to leverage in their fundraising email that would have gone out instead of the "Last night was scary" one I got.

I wonder if the "Last night was scary" message only goes to female names on the Democrats' email list.

81 comments:

tim maguire said...

It hasn't so much been Republican for many years as it's been held by 1 person for many years and that person happened to be Republican. It is not, demographically speaking, a Republican district.

That long-standing congressman recently died. So this is the first time in decades that this seat has been up for grabs and the Democrats decided to make a big play for it.

Too bad for them...Obamacare! and the Republicans came back and grabbed it.

madAsHell said...

We got outspent in a Republican district.

People that use "got" in place of "were" deserve to lose.

cubanbob said...

The Democrats are good at fundraising. Too bad they aren't any good at competently governing.

Gerrard787 said...

Thanks Ann for your blog. As a Canadian I find your site provides some of the best insights into the dynamics of the American political system and I truly enjoy your writing style.

Looking forward to reading many more posts!

Paul Zrimsek said...

Once you've lost a few elections it really ought to stop being scary.

traditionalguy said...

Scared yet? The War on Women by the White GOP Men's League is going to get ugly.

St Petersburg is mostly retirees. They value the health care programs that Obama's Gang are out to destroy and re-distribute.

chickenlittle said...

Sinkholes are scary because they appear suddenly and portend the disintegration of underlying structure.

B said...

Whenever these bulk emails use your first name, I'm reminded of HAL.

I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.

Marshal said...

It's easy to see how Democratic partisans understand so little about the society we live in. So many have internalized the activist mantra to only trust partisan approved sources, but those partisan sources actively mislead them.

rehajm said...

I wonder if the "Last night was scary" message only goes to female names on the Democrats' email list.

It was in pajama boy's inbox this morning...

RecChief said...

Democrats thought they were going to win based on early and absentee voting (something that happens a lot, banking on absentee voting) and they never got the separation that they were looking for.

Which brings up a question, why do Democrats favor absentee voting and early voting so much?

Blue Ox said...

We got outspent …

Someone better tell Dave Weigel.

"The Democrats were outgunned and outspent! That's not actually true, though it's the basis of analyses from the Nation and the Center for Public Integrity. Going into the last week, outside groups boosting Sink had outspent outside groups for Jolly by $1 million. Sink's campaign outpaced Jolly's, in campaign spending, by a similar margin."

Or the Tampa Bay Times (numbers thru 2/27).

Republican TV

David Jolly: $352,998
NRCC: $1,759,812
American Action Network: $356,752
American Crossroads: $357,215
Chamber of Commerce: $745,218

Total $3,571,995

Democrat TV

Alex Sink: $1,523,434
House Majority PAC: $731,479
DCCC: $2,044,456
LCV Victory Fund & Sierra Club Political Committee: $346,786

Total $4,646,155

Danno said...

Bloomberg says the Ds spent over $5 million and the Rs spent $4.5 million, so how is that being outspent?

Math is hard!

hombre said...

According to Time.com, Democrats outspent Republicans in the race. WaPo says otherwise.

How do we decide who's lying? I'll go with the WaPo as the liar. For Time.com, it's probably an admission against interest to acknowledge Dems spent more.

Shouting Thomas said...

The theme of how "scary" it is when your opponent wins an election is kinda stupid.

Most of us accept political defeat with a shrug of our shoulders.

"Oh well, we'll get 'em next time," is how most of us respond.

Which is as it should be.

RecChief said...

here is an article about Democrat digital fundraising strategies:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/who-scares-democrats-more-than-the-koch-brothers-nate-silver-20140311

eric said...

I think the Democrats are counting money spent in the Primary as money spent by the Republican.

I don't know what Jolly spent in the Primary, but that may bring him up higher than Sink.

YoungHegelian said...

I get those Democratic fund raising e-mails, too, as well as the Republican ones. The Republican ones aren't quite so "screed-y" but both seemed aimed at the educational level of a 6th grader. I'm thinking "Can this approach really work?" & then I remember that the most successful e-mail that the Obama campaign sent out started with the subject line "Hey".

RecChief said...

This from Josh Kraushar at NationalJournal:

"
All told, Democrats held a $5.4 million to $4.5 million spending advantage.





"She's known as a tough independent businesswoman who knows how to get things done, yet [her campaign] seemed to run a more process-oriented message," said one Democratic operative involved with the Sink campaign. "I wonder if they ever really thought they could lose."

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Last night was scary

They should be scared. Obama won that district in 2008 and 2012. Sink won the district when she ran for governor in 2010. Sink was very well known, liked and extremely well financed.

The Repub candidate was a disaster. He was a political aid and then lobbyist. He is recently divorced and was campaigning with his 25 year old girlfriend. He was flat broke after the primary.

Danno said...

Actually those numbers were from a link from NBC News at -

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-thoughts-personality-vs-politics-florida-election-n49731

Sink campaign: $2.2 million
DCCC: 2.0 million
House Majority PAC: $776,000
LCV/Sierra Club: $343,000
Total Democratic spending (includes other groups): $5.4 million

Jolly campaign: $560,000
NRCC: $2.0 million
U.S. Chamber of Commerce: $1.2 million
American Crossroads: $357,000
American Action Network: $357,000
Total GOP spending (includes other groups): $4.5 million

Jay said...

didn't the Democrats dump money into that race first?

Well, of course.

And they would have been better off lighting $100 bills on fire.

Jay said...

By the way, this Sink goof ball was the one who said we need illegal immigration because....maids and landscapers.

Totally a woman of the people and in touch with the common folk...

PB Reader said...

All they seem to have left is rationalizing, which will soon start to provoke outright laughter and ridicule.

Danno said...

Another noteworthy piece of info from this race, is that a Libertarian candidate took almost 5% of the vote and the R still won.

Fritz said...

I get those Democratic fund raising e-mails, too, as well as the Republican ones. The Republican ones aren't quite so "screed-y" but both seemed aimed at the educational level of a 6th grader. I'm thinking "Can this approach really work?" & then I remember that the most successful e-mail that the Obama campaign sent out started with the subject line "Hey".

Both are overestimating their target audience.

Jason said...

Ann is correct... I got the exact same email... But a different subject line. Mine was "We got outspent. You'll never guess what happened next."

Granted, the name the send emails to asking for money every day on my account is Vladimir Lenin or Che Guevara, depending on what list they use.

Jason said...

Democrats. They say they believe in women's equality. They don't even think women can read a real subject header that doesn't include an appeal to emotion.

The Drill SGT said...

Bottom line:

Dems had a strong candidate with 100% Voter ID, and more money with an anchor around her neck.

GOP had a less known lobbyist, who wasn't a great campaigner, with less money, and a Libertarian in the mix. And Obama/Obamacare

In a District that went for Obama in 2012

bad Dem juju here folks.

Michael K said...

"St Petersburg is mostly retirees. They value the health care programs that Obama's Gang are out to destroy and re-distribute. "

Retirees are on Medicare and that effect of Obamacare is still theoretical. I'm on Medicare and the effect is still not seen or felt. The people who are affected directly are the younger voters.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Granted, the name the send emails to asking for money every day on my account is Vladimir Lenin or Che Guevara, depending on what list they use.

Ha! I used to use "Vova Ulyanov" because I assumed their computer would automatically delete a "Vladimir Lenin". I guess I over estimated them.


I wonder if I can remember the password to that old email account? I wonder how many thousands of emails are in their?

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

their? their?!? My mother would have had a sad.

David said...

"I wonder if the "Last night was scary" message only goes to female names on the Democrats' email list."

Trying to woo females by complaining that you have been outspent?

Bad strategy.

richard mcenroe said...

Um... didn't that district go for Obama... TWICE?

MadisonMan said...

I don't believe Gerrard787 is really from Canada because there is no 'eh' in his post.

richard mcenroe said...

"Which brings up a question, why do Democrats favor absentee voting and early voting so much?"

Trunk. Ballots. Some dissembly required.

richard mcenroe said...

"We got outspent. You'll never guess what happened next."

The Dems actually outspent GOP by 2.5 to 1 all in.

eric said...

Richard, the reports I'm seeing say they outspent the Republicans by 1 million, or 5.4 to 4.5 million.

Where are you getting your numbers?

Brennan said...

The email wasn't from George Clooney. Ergo, it wasn't only intended for a female audience.

RecChief said...

there's a few people out there who are giving the electoral success to Jolly's ground game, the GOTV effort, and not so much to the Obamacare effect....who knows.

gerry said...

He was a political aid and then lobbyist

...and he was an OFFSHORE DRILLING lobbyist (according to Rush Limbaugh). And the Dems STILL couldn't win this election.

Bad Dem juju, indeed.

Big Mike said...

@Drill SGT, more P.T.!

Oh, wait. That was 45 years ago. I couldn't do the first round of pushups anymore, much less ask for more of them.

In a way last night was bad for Republicans but probably good for the country. Maybe some Democrats on their way to being ousted will start to push back against Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and their collective lack of empathy for the ordinary taxpaying voters.

Of course that means they'll have to stop drinking the Kool-Aid, so maybe not.

Danno said...

Michael K - Are you paying attention to what Obamacare is doing to Medicare Advantage funding?

Emil Blatz said...

I've been here in FL for nearly 7 years. I feel qualified to opine that Alex Sink is da stink.

Jim Gust said...

On the effect of Obamacare on Medicare, the Medicare Advantage program has been severely curtailed effective the first of this year. That's a lot of unhappy seniors, who are talking to their friends about it.

That should not have been a factor in Florida, as my understanding is Medicare Advantage continues to be allowed in that state.

CWJ said...

Reading here about Jolly's backgound and elsewhere that Jolly was the opponent against whom Sink wanted to run, makes me wonder if Sink did a Claire McCaskell during the Republican primary. If so, this would be as if Claire lost to Akin. OUCH!

Browndog said...

Should have sent Russ Feingold down there with some elks before the election.....

Michael K said...

From a Slate piece on FL 13-

In 2014 barely 47 percent of voters chose Sink to represent them in Congress.

Does that 47% number ring any Romney bells ?

Yes, I'm aware of the Medicare Advantage effects and they may be greater in Florida as I understand there are more members there.

Washington Monthly is in full denial mode as in "old white folks."

Let's hope that is the conventional wisdom on the left. It couldn't be the wonderful ACA, could it ?

eric said...

As Inga would say, keep doing what you're doing Rethuglicans, you're going to lose!

Marshal said...

Big Mike said...
Maybe some Democrats on their way to being ousted will start to push back against Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and their collective lack of empathy for the ordinary taxpaying voters.


I don't think job loss has the same impact on the left. They know there are plenty of academic (and government, and NGO) sinecures available to those who go down fighting for the left.

mccullough said...

Sounds like the DNC is bummed that the IRS did not do its job in cracking down on GOP outside interest groups.

JRoberts said...

"'We got outspent. You'll never guess what happened next.'

The Dems actually outspent GOP by 2.5 to 1 all in."

You've got to believe this e-mail was composed long before the final results came in, but immediately after the Dems decided which villain they would blame for their victimization if they lost.

RecChief said...

"You've got to believe this e-mail was composed long before the final results came in, but immediately after the Dems decided which villain they would blame for their victimization if they lost."

You think facts might get in the way of their fund-raising email? Please reconsider your premise.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

the name the send emails to asking for money every day on my account is Vladimir Lenin or Che Guevara, depending on what list they use.

I am Marie Antoinette :-). They can all go eat cake....or pound sand. Whatever.

n.n said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
n.n said...

Perhaps if Democrats actually sought and implemented health care reform (i.e. availability and affordability), rather than preserving and exacerbating the status quo, then more people would welcome their good intentions.

Of course, as long as they continue to denigrate individual dignity and devalue human life on principle, then it will be trying indeed to betray my integrity for promises of bubble economics and redistributive (i.e. recycled) change.

Hopefully, this sentiment is shared by a democratic majority of Americans. Neither promises of sex, nor money, nor ego gratification, nor even convenience will purchase my vote. I am not a "good German".

That said, the Republicans need to get their house in order. Whether by design or incident, there are convergent interests which do not promote the general Welfare of Americans.

Strelnikov said...

Scariest part: Wasserman-Schultz' hair.

But that's always the case. So,nothing to see here. Move along.

RecChief said...

"That said, the Republicans need to get their house in order"

Absolutely

Sam L. said...

I read elsewhere some $12.3 million was spent on this election, so $5 mill...yeah, less that half.

Levi Starks said...

I replied to the message I received, I said "please stop lying"
Obviously I know they won't do that, but we'll see if they cut me out of the Email chain...

campy said...

The dems are not technically lying about being outspent, it's just that they're counting the entire production budgets of Faux Noise and Rush Limbaugh's show on the gop side.

lemondog said...

In a tizzy over outside $$$

Outside groups dwarf candidate spending in Florida special election

GOP to Dem: 20% v 12.4%

Scott M said...

In a tizzy over outside $$$

Since this is really about who controls both houses of the federal Congress, I think the argument could reasonably be made that there's no such thing as "outside" money.

Sure, Jolly's election doesn't mean anything in terms of numbers of votes or control of the Senate in and of itself, but as a source of positive spin for the GOP Senate hopes, it's huge. If Sink would have won, it would have been huge for them.

So, with both using the wholly local race nationally, which eventually leads to holding both houses...

Nope...no such thing as "outside" money.

southcentralpa said...

Yes, scary, but not in the way they think: http://www.wkow.com/story/24932697/2014/03/10/police-violent-home-invasion-one-of-worst-attacks-in-madison

Yeek...

traditionalguy said...

Medicare was being massively raided for ObamaCare money once and is suffering the same cut to fees that pay Doctors for our treatments. The over 65 group are not simpletons. They know their Medicare Plans are targeted as the level of their services paid for is planned for restriction.

Pinellis county is home to some very smart 65 to 95 Medicare folks.

Curious George said...

In November the electorate will be the hunter, Obamacare will be the club, and the Democrats will be the baby seal.

lemondog said...

Nope...no such thing as "outside" money.

Still no reason not enrage Florida voters against those dang corporate 'carpetbaggers,' if that's the correct term, coming in with their dirty money and influencing the vote.

Kirk Parker said...

YoungHegelian,

"I remember that the most successful e-mail that the Obama campaign sent out started with the subject line 'Hey'. "

Makes perfect sense: they want to come across as your drinking buddy/f*ck-buddy.

David Davenport said...

...He is recently divorced and was campaigning with his 25 year old girlfriend.

My kind of guy. I would have voted for him.

Not likely to endear him to golden years wives, however.

RonF said...

More money was spent on that campaign by the Democrats than by the Republicans. Yet somehow the Republican outside money is a scandal.

Paul Zrimsek said...

I wonder if the "Last night was scary" message only goes to female names on the Democrats' email list.

Interesting question. Is "last night was scary" the sort of thing a woman would normally take as a compliment?

viator said...

And the GOP establishment fought Jolly all along the way and turned on him a week before the election:

Pollutico

More amazing that he won and yet another bad omen for the Dems. Another meme at work here was the GOP establishment's lust for amnesty contra the opinion of GOP base and Jolly's campaign.

Phil 3:14 said...

Let's not forget its a slave state.

Shawn Levasseur said...

I'm on the same mailing list.

I got the same e-mail.

It started

"Shawn --

What happened last night in Florida was really scary."

But the subject line itself was "We got outspent. You'll never guess what happened next:"

It may not be a gender thing though. In e-mail marketing, alternate headings can be a form of live experimentation to see which approaches get better responses. It's a feature of most bulk e-mail services.

The Crack Emcee said...

Phil 3:14 said...
Let's not forget its a slave state.


Maybe the names Trayvon and Jordan Davis can keep that fact in the forefront of your minds,...

Todd said...

Hey Crack!

So here is where you went! I was still over on the other thread waiting on your response to my question as to what "justice" looks like to you. Got an answer yet?

Thanks!

The Crack Emcee said...

Todd said...
Hey Crack!

So here is where you went! I was still over on the other thread waiting on your response to my question as to what "justice" looks like to you. Got an answer yet?

Thanks!

Again? How many times have I stated that here? How many times have I repeated myself? Do I have to do it for every individual white person who's online in the Western world? Here's a question I haven't seen before:

What does "justice" for blacks look like to you?

Todd said...

Well that is exactly what I am asking. You keep saying you want justice. What is that to you? If you say you want to own the moon, that is off the table. If you say you want a 1 year subscription to Reason magazine, I can live with that. I suspect the reality is somewhere in between but I don't know because you won't say.

So, what do you want? What does justice for all US black people look like to you, Crack?

Thanks!

Todd said...

Oh and as to your question as to what justice for blacks looks like to me, the answer is "the same as justice for all people". A reality where MLK's words are in affect. Where someone has the opportunity to be whatever they want to be. Not the right to be something but the right to try to be something. That is not universally available in this country but the USA is the closest to that reality that you will find anywhere.

Your turn.

Thanks!

Gahrie said...

St. Trayvon was a wannabe thug wwho got exactly what he was asking for.

Gahrie said...

St. Trayvon was a wannabe thug wwho got exactly what he was asking for.