December 26, 2013

"Republicans have a 49%-44% edge over Democrats in a generic ballot, a key 2014 midterm election indicator..."

"... according to a new CNN/ORC International poll," says a new Breaking News email from CNN. Here's the article:
Two months ago, Democrats held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates. 
Whoa! 2 months ago the Dems were up by 8 and now they are down by 5? That's a 13-point change in the spread.
That result came after congressional Republicans appeared to overplay their hand in the bitter fight over the federal government shutdown and the debt ceiling.
So the Republicans were unusually low at that point. By the way, it's absurd for journalists to adopt the term "government shutdown," at least not without putting it in quotes. It's an inflammatory propaganda term. Obviously, the government didn't shut down.
The 13-point swing over the past two months follows a political uproar over Obamacare, which included the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov and controversy over the possiblity of insurance policy cancelations due primarily to the new health law.
Why say "botched rollout" and not "collapse" or "utter ruin" or something more dramatic, equivalent to "shutdown"? You know, it's not just the "rollout," which suggests the initial stages of the system as it lumbers into motion. And "botched" suggests some pesky messiness that can be forgiven.
"Virtually all the movement toward the GOP has come among men," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Fifty-four percent of female voters chose the Democratic candidate in October; 53% pick the Dem now. But among male voters, support for Democratic candidates has gone from 46% in October to just 35% now."
Younger men, I take it. They are ones for whom the reality of Obamacare most diverged from the hope-and-dreams.
According to the poll, only three in 10 registered voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress next year.... Democratic voters seem particularly unenthusiastic about voting, and that is likely to benefit the GOP. Thirty-six percent of Republicans say they're extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. That number drops to 22% among Democrats.

Another GOP advantage is the President's standing with the public: 55% of registered voters say that they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes the President than one who supports him and four in 10 say they are likely to vote for a candidate who supports Obama.
Get ready for the anti-Obama Democrats. What will they look like? Perhaps they'll grind away at him from the left on issues like the NSA surveillance and drone warfare. They could say Obamacare was devised as a sop to Republicans who outrageously avoided all responsibility for it when it failed, and single-payer was always the only good answer, and it's where we must go now.

56 comments:

MadisonMan said...

I don't understand how there can't be motion in the polls among women, and the fact that there is no motion actually makes me question the polls' veracity.

Dr Weevil said...

Maybe you didn't mention this because it's obvious, but "controversy over the possiblity of insurance policy cancelations due primarily to the new health law" should be "shock and terror over the simple fact of millions of insurance policy cancellations as a direct result of the new health law". Even that leaves out the fact that they knew it would happen, intended it to happen, and lied through their teeth when they repeatedly said it would not happen. What contemptible liars the media have become.

NotquiteunBuckley said...

This is old, from three days ago, but raises questions about CNN.

"Opposition to Obamacare rose six points among women, from 54% in November to 60% now, while opinion of the new law remained virtually unchanged among men," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "That's bad news for an administration that is reaching out to moms across the country in an effort to make Obamacare a success."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/12/23/cnn-poll-heath-care-law-support-drops-to-all-time-low/

TosaGuy said...

The nation's Pajama Boys who in college parroted the themes of victimology of women, minorities, etc. in order to get chicks are now learning that those women still believe that stuff and that policies have been enacted for which those men will fund.

Contrary to what Pajama Boy may think, his beliefs will not protect him from paying once he is evicted from his childhood room.

Broomhandle said...

The media told them to be upset about the shutdown and then a month later the media told them to be upset about Obamacare. Independents are sheep herded by a television.

SGT Ted said...

They could say Obamacare was devised as a sop to Republicans

Not when no Republican voted for it. Nor were any GOP members consulted.


The "individual mandate" idea was ROMNEYS for s State plan in a liberal State. Not the GOPs adopted plan.

But, the Democrats WILL keep trying to spray some of the stench onto the GOP. That's what they always do. It will not work. The GOP is clean on the ObungleCare debacle. That's the reason the polls are cratering for Democrats and the GOP is gaining an advantage.

garage mahal said...

Nor were any GOP members consulted

Really? There are over 100 accepted Republican amendments in ObamaCare.

Carol said...

The "individual mandate" idea was ROMNEYS for s State plan in a liberal State.


too nuanced

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Nor were any GOP members consulted

Really? There are over 100 accepted Republican amendments in ObamaCare."

LOL Let's see a list. Because I know that most of these "amendments" were technical changes.

tim in vermont said...

Keep shoveling, Garage. Keep shoveling.

PB Reader said...

42% is the percentage of people who would still vote for democrats that have committed and admitted to murder AND rape.

Michael K said...

"I don't understand how there can't be motion in the polls among women, "


HaHaHaHaHa

I can explain it to you when the blog owner isn't looking.

garage mahal said...

Make that 161 Republican amendments.

According to a HELP Committee document about bipartisan aspects of the health reform bill the committee passed July 15, 2009, its final bill included "161 Republican amendments," including "several amendments from Senators [Mike] Enzi [R-WY], [Tom] Coburn [R-OK], [Pat] Roberts [R-KS] and others [that] make certain that nothing in the legislation will allow for rationing of care," and reflected the efforts of "six bipartisan working groups" that "met a combined 72 times" in 2009 as well as "30 bipartisan hearings on health care reform" since 2007, half of which were held in 2009 [HELP Committee document, 7/09]. And according to the Senate Finance Committee's September 22, 2009, document detailing the amendments to the Chairman's Mark considered, at least 13 amendments sponsored by one or more Republican senators were included in the bill.

EDH said...

Get ready for the anti-Obama Democrats. What will they look like?

More. Free. Shit. Intergenerational transfer paid for mostly by the young.

Is that a winner politically?

If Elizabeth Warren is emerging as a kind of spokeswoman for the new economic populism that many Democratic activists want the party to embrace heading into 2014 and 2016, this speech that Warren is currently delivering on the floor of the Senate suggests the push to expand Social Security could become a key issue in the argument over the Democratic Party of the future.

By planting a flag on the need to expand Social Security, Warren may have just added this issue to the pantheon of preoccupations that are driving those who want to see the party embrace a more economically populist posture going forward. Liberal bloggers such as Atrios and liberal groups like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, have been pushing for a Social Security expansion, arguing that Democratic priorities should be centered on the idea that declining pensions and wages (and savings) are undermining retirement security, and that the party should above all stand against undermining the social insurance system.

The Drill SGT said...

Get ready for the anti-Obama Democrats. What will they look like?

Manchin,

but regardless they will all vote for Dirty Harry as the majority Leader and when their votes are needed, tow thw party line.

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Make that 161 Republican amendments."

List please.

Deirdre Mundy said...

I can believe the no movement among women thing...

Married women already couldn't stand him.

Single women have fallen for the whole 'Obama the boyfriend' thing.


So now they'll stick by him no matter WHAT he does, because there's nothing worse than admitting to your parents that they were right, he was a total jerk, and that you should have gone for that nice young man who adored you and could support you... but he was boring and now he's married with a wife, a house, kids and a steady job and you're still having screaming fights with Barry and throwing plates at his head but still insisting that everything is GREAT!

Better to stick with him than here your dad say "I told you so. And there's this nice young guy at the office I'd really like you to meet!"

garage mahal said...

List please.

You have google.

Original Mike said...

"amendments ... [that] make certain that nothing in the legislation will allow for rationing of care,"

That's going to make "If you like your plan ..." look like a mother's expression of love for her child.

Glenn Howes said...

Well one of the amendments was that Congress and its staff would have to go unsubsidized to the exchanges, and that was voided by regulatory fiat. Maybe all those amendments were similarly ignored, can anybody name a Republican amendment that isn't being ignored by the Administration.

B said...

Curious George said..."garage mahal said...Make that 161 Republican amendments."

List please.


Curious George, he has pushed this line of BS before. gm feels the need to apportion some or all the blame for Obamacare to republicans. That will slowly morph into - if those insistent republican clarifications of the ACA, gm's 'amendments', had not been there the ACA would have been successful.

Also, asking him to provide links or lists will only get you information that actually shows gm to be a liar or fool (both actually) and he'll have to adopt the tedious 'you can't prove to me that the sun doesn't rise in the west' schtick.

Rather than let him jack the thread, consider the source, assume he's misleading and/or outright lying and move on.

Michael said...

The "amendments" which GM references are interesting. I troubled to look at some of them which I can guarantee GM did not. I appreciate GM bringing the topic up since examination of the "amendments" refutes the point he wishes to make and underscores his reliance on lefty headlines.

garage mahal said...

Also, asking him to provide links or lists will only get you information that actually shows gm to be a liar

I already provided the link that proved not only were Republicans consulted, there are 161 Republican amendments in ObamaCare.

You aren't very bright, are you?

garage mahal said...

I appreciate GM bringing the topic up since examination of the "amendments" refutes the point he wishes to make and underscores his reliance on lefty headlines.

My point was refuting this claim: "Nor were any GOP members consulted"

Obviously Republicans were consulted.

Did you have a point?

Original Mike said...

His point is that the amendments were not substantive. The one you list is certainly not.

TosaGuy said...

Yet Garage's Democrats would not pass any GOP amendments that would limited the number of people kicked off of their insurance or experience significant rate hikes or cause their employers to consider dropping their sponsored coverage, or basically make all low-wage jobs top out at 29 hours.

garage mahal said...

His point is that the amendments were not substantive

Guess we'll just have to trust him at his word.

Michael said...

GM. dont trust me. Look for yourself. You made no point that a fourth grade Civics class wouldnt be able to make.

garage mahal said...

You made no point that a fourth grade Civics class wouldnt be able to make.

Knocking down ObamaCare myths is that easy.

TosaGuy said...

Here is a list of GOP Obamacare amendments that were rejected by the Democrats.

B said...

garage mahal said...You aren't very bright, are you?

Why, yes, I am. But it is easy to see that your bringing up republican amendments is a deflecting attempt to disarm criticism of the ACA by somehow assigning some level of responsibility to the republicans. And you think you make some telling point when you do.

You're a stupid, smarmy, lying fuck garage. I'm tired of you and all the other fatuous, pucker-assed, superior assholes like you who dissemble, distort, deflect, and unabashedly lie about every issue. Facts, data, common sense...none of them matter in the attempt to entice those to whom they do matter into playing by your rules.

And the worst of it is that you succeed in getting much smarter people to engage you as if you had any intention of having an honest dialogue.

garage mahal said...

But it is easy to see that your bringing up republican amendments is a deflecting attempt to disarm criticism of the ACA by somehow assigning some level of responsibility to the republicans

Again, I refuted the claim "Nor were any GOP members consulted".

That you're a whiny, miserable little cunt who can't follow the simplest of debates is not my problem.

Mark Nielsen said...

Garage, you need to be able to do better than that. "Consulted" would, to my mind and the mind of pretty much anyone else with a shred of intelligence, mean more. If there was all this "consultation" going on, you'd think it wouldn't have had to be crammed through the way it was. You'd think it might have at least picked up the votes of, say, the Maine Sisters.

No, there was no consultation. Amendments *plus* some R votes would mean something. The amendments by themselves show nothing.

Though thanks for bringing this up, because I do think it's interesting to see that this is now becoming a talking point of the left. It looks a bit like surrender -- admission that the law is a disaster. I did in fact Google it, as you suggested. What I found was a whole lot of lefty sources touting this line, creating an echo chamber picture of a cooperative process producing the ACA. But no reasonable mainstream source would go near the claim that Republicans contributed significantly to the law.

Troll better. Your desperation is showing.

B said...

Again, I refuted the claim "Nor were any GOP members consulted".

Really? You think that was my point? Or for that matter that you succeeded in refuting the point SGT Ted was making? I made a mistake I said I in the past that I would never do again and followed your Media Matters link on republican amendments to the ACA (amendments being a purposeful distortion and misuse of the term).

No, you didn't refute a damn thing you lying fuck. No one bought it.

Original Mike said...

The Republicans were given a choice; death by phaser, death by hanging, ...

garage mahal said...

Or for that matter that you succeeded in refuting the point SGT Ted was making?

Clearly I did. Now fuck off.

khesanh0802 said...

@ Garage

None of the three amendments offered by the GOP made it into the final bill. There are no longer high risk pools (there were once and they worked well for me); insurance companies can not sell across state lines; and there are no pools specifically for self-employed or small business ( this was intended to allow these people to consolidate into groups for cheaper coverage).

Obamacare was a Democratic entity then and now.

khesanh0802 said...

@tosaguy
Great research. Link refutes GM with out having to resort to ad hominem attack.

B said...

Clearly I did.

In order to claim that you have to double down on distortion, dissembling, and deflection. There is a word for people who make that the defining public aspect of their character.

khesanh0802, gm is the poster boy on this site for those on the left who have nothing going for them except to poison the discourse with lies and prevent honest dialogue. You call it ad hominem. You could call it just following the advice of our esteemed president and punching back twice as hard. Or you could call it having enough of it and calling him out for what he is.

garage mahal said...

In order to claim that you have to double down on distortion, dissembling, and deflection.

The claim "Nor were any GOP members consulted" was absurdly easy to refute. I can't tell if you're just really dumb or just a big crybaby. But I really don't give a fuck what you think either way.

B said...

But I really don't give a fuck what you think either way.

Fair enough. I actually feel the same way about lying fucks like you. I will, however, reserve the right to point out what you, and those like you, are when you exhibit it.

Because I'm so damn tired of it.

garage mahal said...

I will, however, reserve the right to point out what you, and those like you, are when you exhibit it.

You haven't pointed out anything. You're unable to even engage in the debate. All you ever do is cry like a little baby on the sideline where you can't get hit. I can't imagine anyone being impressed by that.

n.n said...

Single-payer would have exacerbated the Detroit Effect. Obamacare was designed to obfuscate local or regional stagnant or recessive economic conditions, while preserving progressive inflation. It is especially critical in highly financed and subsidized areas. The Democrats are particularly vulnerable in their districts. They have to pay their protection... I mean welfare money or suffer the consequences.

Chef Mojo said...

garage is technically correct as regards "consulting."

This, of course, assumes the same sort of "consultation" a whore makes to a priest during confession, knowing that in a half hour she's going to be flat on her back, and the priest is pretty much powerless to do anything about it.

And when she gets nicked by the cops, she can always comfort herself that it was the priest's fault.

garage mahal said...

Liberals wanted single payer or a public option. Those advocates were never consulted.

B said...

Chef Mojo said...garage is technically correct as regards "consulting."

No. He isn't. His link is to a Media Matters distortion. It's fluff. For one example, it's saying that because Obama said he'd listen to them on some specific concerns they had that they in reality had any voice in consulting about the bill. The republicans made it clear from the start they would not vote for the ACA and didn't. The 'amendments' gm refers to, the voice of consultation offered the republicans, was a chimera. The fact that some concerns intersected with republican concerns was nothing more than coincidental with adjustments to the language in the bill intended to give shaky democrats cover.

gm's proof is nothing more than words piled up until you get a self-referential swamp. That is a Media Matters specialty and what they did in this case. So one can buy into what I think and thought then was an honest examination of what went down like the Fox news' report or the reactive Media Matter spin.

This is not the first time this has come up on Althouse. Nor will it be the last.

Original Mike said...

"Liberals wanted single payer or a public option."

So? That was not a concession to Republicans. They didn't have the democratic votes for that.

Kirk Parker said...

Somebody: "List please.

Garage: "You have google."

Me: No, no we don't. Yes, we do have Google. Yes, Google is magic and way beyond magic (in the Arthur C. Clarke sense). No, Google is still not up to the task of elucidating what is the Mind That Is Garage Mahal.

Rick Caird said...

I see Garage is posting misleading comments and insults again.

Surely, Garage knows that the version of ObamaCare that was passed came out of Harry Reid's office at about the 3AM the night before it was voted on and passed in the Senate. The idea was to get it through the Senate before Scott Brown was sworn into the Senate and available to vote against the bill. There were no amendments allowed.

Then, House, under Pelosi, passed the Senate bill "as is" so it did not have to go back to the Senate. So, to say any Republican amendment were included is disingenuous. The only things that were included were what Harry Reid wanted included.

I am forced to conclude Garage Mahal is dishonest.

Rick Caird said...

Garage also tells us: "Liberals wanted single payer or a public option. Those advocates were never consulted."

That is another lie. There were never enough votes to pass single payer. Lieberman was against it in the Senate and Barney Frank specifically said that what they passed was the "fastest way to get to single payer". So, to say advocates of single payer were never consulted is nonsense, wrong, and misleading. Hmmmm, that seem like par for the course for Garage Mahal.

President-Mom-Jeans said...

Why you guys bother to argue with Althouse's pet leftard overweight idiot who was too stupid to attend college is beyond me.

Nice to see her and Meade are so evenhanded about their censorship on this blog though.

Ugly.

President-Mom-Jeans said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jon Finch said...

george mahahl...a consultation occurs when someone seeks the advice, guidance, counsel and expertise.

the gop submitted 7 and then some amendments. the democrats accepted 161 of them. only a few are considered substantive, and from what i read are designed to put the ACA in check.

In the end, not a single republican voted for it. so the takeway, no matter what you want it to be, is that this is the democrats baby and that's it. they own it all.

Jon Finch said...

george mahahl...a consultation occurs when someone seeks the advice, guidance, counsel and expertise.

the gop submitted 7 and then some amendments. the democrats accepted 161 of them. only a few are considered substantive, and from what i read are designed to put the ACA in check.

In the end, not a single republican voted for it. so the takeway, no matter what you want it to be, is that this is the democrats baby and that's it. they own it all.

Andy Freeman said...

Shorter Garage: The Repubs caused the problems with ACA/Obamacare because they voted against it and the Dems are not responsible because they voted for it.

The rest of us think that the Repubs said, by voting against it, that they didn't like it as a whole, even if some might have liked some pieces. Meanwhile, the Dems, by voting for it, said that they liked it as a whole, even though some of them might have disliked certain pieces.

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