October 26, 2012

"Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio."

Says Scott Rasmussen.

ADDED: Speaking of Rasmussen, the Rasmussen tracking poll today is the same as yesterday — Romney 50%, Obama 47% — which is interesting since today's poll includes — in its average of 3 days — 2 days of post-debate polling and yesterday's included only 1. That is, that last debate seems to have had little or no effect.

89 comments:

TWM said...

Considering the goings-on in Wisconsin these past few years, this is a very scary thought.

Beautiful state, but you folks are kinda nuts . . .

dreams said...

Newt Gingrich say 53% for Romney 47% for Obama based on his experience. He has his flaws but he was mostly responsible for the Republicans finally taking congress in Jan 1995.

Jay said...

Eh.

I don't see Obama winning VA, Colorado, or NH anyway.

MadisonMan said...

I've driven in Ohio. My sister has lived in Ohio. Wisconsin, you're no Ohio.

Not quite the same.

dreams said...

Wisconsin is becoming less nuts and Romney I believe/hope will win the state.

Patrick said...

I really love WI, but the last two years have made me glad I don't live there. One can get too much political nonsense.

That said, I would find it highly satisfactory if WI goes Romney and that pushes him over the 270 mark. It would be a fitting end to the President's failure to make any meaningful response to the recall, which ticked a lot of the left off.

What are we 12 days out? Hang in there, it's almost over.

traditionalguy said...

The political epicenter of Wisconsin rolls forward, where Hans Christian Heg's memorial watches it go by as Althouse records it all.

It would be fitting to see the surrender of Emperor Obama's sword accepted by Clint Eastwood on the deck of BB64 in Norfolk Harbor, Virginia.



Erika said...

Does anyone know why RCP moved NC back into tossup status? All the polls I see there have Romney well ahead and I thought word on the street was that the Obama campaign has all but closed up shop there. I asked this on another thread but didn't get an answer.

trumpetdaddy said...

Romney will win Ohio by at least 3.5% and probably closer to 5%. All polls showing Obama ahead of Romney in the last 10 days in Ohio have oversampled Dems by between 3-5% over the Dems' high-water mark of +5 in the 2008 general election.

Mandel will also win the Senate seat over Sherrod Brown.

This is all academic. And Scott Rasmussen knows it. He, himself, is oversampling Dems and women in his own polls, both individual states and nationally.

Everyone who follows this closely knows all of these things.

Scott is just driving interest to drive business for himself. Like all public pollsters, he has to maximize the window of opportunity of the next 12 days. A too-early call of a Romney blowout is bad for future business.

Nothing wrong with that, of course, but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be sucked in.

Tim said...

"That is, that last debate seems to have had little or no effect."

Which hurts Obama, seeing how momentum has shifted to Romney.

Unless something drastic happens over the remaining days, Romney should win.

Which will be gratifying, if only because it will demonstrate that people can learn from their mistakes.

The Republic cannot survive voters too dumb to learn from their mistakes.

dreams said...

I read the reason Ohio is so close is because it has less affluent suburbanites relative to blue collar than the other swing states so that gives me more hope for Wisconsin though I'm just assuming Wisconsin has lot of that demographic.

Mitchell said...

Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio.

But not until you pick up a few more Amish.

dreams said...

Romney has wiped out the gender gap among women. I don't expect Obama to wipe out the gender gap among men.

Ron said...

if so, then Madison is the new Columbus....

And Althouse is a "BadgerEye", because "Bucky" has a new meaning...

rehajm said...

Erika said...
Does anyone know why RCP moved NC back into tossup status?


I wondered this, too. The latest poll in the RCP average was a PPP(D) tie. That moved the RCP average to +5.0 Romney, which is probably the cutoff point for tossup vs leans.

Marshal said...

Erika said...
Does anyone know why RCP moved NC back into tossup status?


They use a mechanical definition of "tossup", whenever the RCP average is within 5 points. The new PPP poll showed the race as a tie. Since the RCP methodology doesn't throw out outliers and so few other outfits are running polls in NC the PPP has a disproportionate impact.

NC isn't a tossup. In truth Florida isn't either.

dreams said...

I'm not a fan of RCP but I know North Carolina is solid for Romney.

Jon said...


There's a rumor that Ras will show WI tied at 49% today, his last poll had Obama ahead by 2.

Erika said...

Thank you for the explanation. I probably could have found it on their site but it's so cluttered I don't like to poke around there.

Darrell said...

Wisconsin is going to go solidly for Romney.

yoobee said...

Probably because the average voter doesn't put much weight on foreign policy, especially not this year. I think this is why Romney was less aggressive at the last debate.

MadisonMan said...

I have a question about Pennsylvania.

Let's assume that a once-in-a-lifetime storm hits PA on Monday (almost a given) and knocks out power to millions for more than a week (a distinct possibility). The worst effects will be in SE PA, that is, in Philly which is a bluer part of the state. Assume the voting machines in Philadelphia cannot function on Election Day. How does this change the outcome?

Matthew Sablan said...

MadisonMan: If PA is smart, they'll implement the Rice-Bush voting contingency plan that Bush implemented in 2002-03 to ensure that even if the nation were hit by a coordinated terrorist attack on election day '04 that the election could proceed.

If they are not smart, it'll be utter chaos.

trumpetdaddy said...

Yes, Ras shows WI tied at 49.

And, I say it again, Scott is assuming a D+3 nationally even though his own monthly national party ID poll shows an R+4.

Assuming a D+3 national turnout, Romney wins by 2% nationally, and 2.75% in Ohio. And that's using the media polls and the RCP average.

This is why I keep saying that Romney is not going to lose Ohio. The turnout in Ohio will not be D+3. It will be somewhere between even and D+1.5%, maybe even R+1.

As of yesterday, 220k fewer Dems and 30k more Rs have returned absentee ballots/voted in-person early than at this time in 2008 in Ohio. That's a net gain of 250k for the Rs. Obama only won Ohio by 260k votes total in 2008.

McCain won significantly amongst voters casting on election day in 2008 in Ohio. Obama had swamped him with the early/absentee voters.

That isn't happening this time round. Portman's machine is dominating as they did in 2010 and as they did to hold off Santorum in the spring.

This is all academic and has been since a few days after the first debate.

Obama's campaign is behaving as a losing campaign because it is one. It isn't a mystery. Watch what they do, not what they say.

Like Romney buying ad time in Minnesota today.

Dante said...

Who knows, Ann. Perhaps the whole presidential election will come down to YOUR IN THE MIDDLE VOTE.

Ruth Anne Adams said...

Erika,
One other factor might be affecting the NC results. Early voting began last week. Likely voters become actual voters and it's more like an exit poll.

If the early voters are just people who were going to vote anyway, then it won't change the projections much. But if early voters are previously sporadic voters or registered in 1 party who cross over, then you have some new data in the mix.

My unscientific observation is that there are many fewer Obama signs/decals/pins than last time and many many more Romney signs/decals/pins than McCain had.

Cedarford said...

It is a good sign, those trends in Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Team Axelrod has poured enormous ad money and organization into the "Ohio firewall", but the embers appear to be carrying past Ohio.
Obama is still heavily advantaged by blacks who will vote racially, and Ohio has a large politicized black population.
Team Axelrod has poured in "government union volunteers" from Chicago.

But with women finally thinking Romney is no monster out to control their lady parts and 4 years more of an Obama economy will do their families, friends, and own careers 4 more years of hurt....
It may be that worst case, Romney doesn't need Ohio.

Ruth Anne Adams said...

Althouse:
Have you decided when you're going to decide in this election?

Because if you write a good 'How Obama Lost Me' post in the right time, Rush Limbaugh could probably devote a whole show to it.

Think about it. Lots of page views if you time it right.

Bob Ellison said...

RCP, like all newspapers and TV news programs, gets its data from pollsters. RCP has established a simple, transparent average of polls. It's useful because everyone can see how it's computed.

The problem is the poll data. I believe, as many others have suggested, that the pollsters behave according to their incentives, which are:

1) To produce the polling results that the people who pay them to conduct the polls want. The people who pay them are (a) journalists and (b) campaign operations.

2) To prove that they are good predictors of election results, because future work depends on this proof of viability.

Therefore:

3) Pollsters will tend to report results that reflect the desires of their employers (incentive (1)).

4) However, pollsters will tend, even against the desires of their employers, to hew toward actual polling reality in the waning days/weeks of the election, because otherwise they will fail to get new business in the future (incentive (2)).

Note that nearly everyone on both campaign sides and in the media has been saying for months now, really since spring, things like "in the end, this race will tighten up", "this will be a very close race", and "we always believed this was going to go down to the wire, in spite of the polls. How do they know this? They know it because they know that the polls are lying.

We will find out the truth on November 7, and it will surprise many people.

garage mahal said...

I looked at 14 swing state polls yesterday and Obama was up in 11, and tied in three.

But then I seen a Romney yard sign on the east side and now I don't know what to think.

Tibore said...

I was about to make a joke that Wisconsin is the old Scandinavia... but I realized after the Walker protests that what it really is is the old Parisian Left Bank. :-S

Tibore said...

Well, Madison is, at least. The rest of Wisconsin is likely something else.

tim in vermont said...

My wife just got back from a business trip to Ohio. People there are afraid to answer their phones now. And remember when it was the thing to make fun of Mormons for door knocking? Well how do the Democrats get off the hook on that one? Never mind, we all know.

I always thought that this emphasis on Ohio was cargo cult political science. The reason no Republican has won without it has to do with the nature of its population, not an absolute need for the electoral votes.

Darrell said...

The Iraqi cellphone people are trying to compete with the Obamaphones and they come here--to Althouse.

Drago said...

garage: "I looked at 14 swing state polls yesterday and Obama was up in 11, and tied in three."

LOL

"Project New America"?

LOL

Yeah, Romney is losing in North Carolina and Florida.......riiiight.

Hilarious.

Good old garage, always willing to make a complete jackass of himself in support of his "betters".

BTW, when is that Scott Walker perp walk going to happen?

Soon?

Very soon?

Very very soon?

the wolf said...

Re-elect Obama and Wisconsin will be the new Greece. As will the rest of the states.

tim in vermont said...

Ohio will be Obama's Manginot line.

TosaGuy said...

"Like Romney buying ad time in Minnesota today."

That is so he can reach western Wisconsin. MN is not in play.

All four candidates will be in WI next week. Romney at State Fair Park near Milwaukee on Monday.

traditionalguy said...

The EXPERTS are down to playing Rock,Paper, Scissors with swing states: A Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida beats an Ohio.

What if Pennsylvania goes Romney? The Keystone State may unlock it all.

Darrell said...

Are hangups on polling calls still an Obama vote?

No wonder why Obama still is competetive.

tim in vermont said...

They are both, much to my annoyance, buying time in Vermont to reach the NH market. I don't think Vermont is in play, my solitary vote notwithstanding.

AF said...

The polling is truly confusing. Based on the national polls, Romney seems to be ahead. But based on the state polls, Obama seems to be ahead.

Obama has consistent leads in more than enough states to win -- Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa -- and he comes out leading in about half the polls in three other states -- Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

There is a real divide between the results of the state and national polls and I honestly don't understand why.

Cosmic Conservative said...

If Wisconsin goes Romney...

Well, let's just say a sea change in politics will definitely be underway.

edutcher said...

What trumpet said, the first time.

Ras wants a little drama to gin up the business.

But, if the headline is true, it's over of Choom.

But I think he knows it.

dreams said...

I read the reason Ohio is so close is because it has less affluent suburbanites relative to blue collar than the other swing states so that gives me more hope for Wisconsin though I'm just assuming Wisconsin has lot of that demographic.

A lot of blue collar here in the 'burbs, but we've been hit very hard. A couple of little shopping centers where I am have just about been wiped out.

MadisonMan said...

I have a question about Pennsylvania.

Let's assume that a once-in-a-lifetime storm hits PA on Monday (almost a given) and knocks out power to millions for more than a week (a distinct possibility). The worst effects will be in SE PA, that is, in Philly which is a bluer part of the state. Assume the voting machines in Philadelphia cannot function on Election Day. How does this change the outcome?


It could be paralysis. The current mayor of Philadelphia is a blithering incompetent on the Ray Nagin scale.

Marshal said...

garage mahal said...
I looked at 14 swing state polls yesterday and Obama was up in 11, and tied in three.

But then I seen a Romney yard sign on the east side and now I don't know what to think.


Why don't you go back to ridiculing people for not understanding that Walker is going to lose the recall election?

purplepenquin said...

Well, that explains why Romney and Obama and Ryan and Biden all have rallies scheduled in Wisconsin.

then Madison is the new Columbus

Wisconsin already has a Columbus. I recommend the pie at the Family Restaurant if ya happen to stop by.

Roger J. said...

Bob Ellison and I are in total agreement--this poll fetish has everything to do with the pollsters making sure they have subsequent contracts for marketing a political parties. Follow the money folks. A pollster who blows the results will be serving up lattes in the local starbucks. The pollster who call it accurately will be up to his/her ass in contracts. This isnt hard--except for the folks that put stock in polls during an election year.

SteveR said...

Thanks garage, now that you've weighed in I can confidently assume the opposite is closer to the truth.

rehajm said...

There is a real divide between the results of the state and national polls and I honestly don't understand why.

This. Last few days with several national polls settling around Romney +3, RCP average at Romney +.9. With those margins it's difficult to imagine a popular vote win with an EC loss.

roesch/voltaire said...

I don't think Wisconsin, which is a manufacturing, diary state, appreciates the kind of business Romney likes as this points out: The sector that typically bears the brunt of hyper-financialization is manufacturing – especially the heavy industries that need working capital to finance materials and work in process. The next most damaged are research-and-development-intensive businesses, perhaps because finance siphons away too much of the best science and math talent. Whatever the reason, when American finance bulked up in the 2000s, there was a cataclysmic fall in manufacturing employment.

Roger J. said...

AF: let me take a shot at your question. Look at sample sizes between state polls and national polls. The larger the sample size (national polling) the less the margin of error. Most state polls that I have seen have smaller sample sizes thereby increasing the MOE.

TosaGuy said...

"Wisconsin already has a Columbus. I recommend the pie at the Family Restaurant if ya happen to stop by."

The Hydro Street Brew Pub is a great spot too. I stop there before and after train trips to the Twin Cities.

Not every place has a Louis Sullivan-designed bank either.

garage mahal said...

Why don't you go back to ridiculing people for not understanding that Walker is going to lose the recall election?

For at least the 100th time: I never said once Walker would lose. Why? I seen data pouring in (like the polls I just cited) that showed a relatively easy win. If you average all the polls you get a pretty good picture of what is going on. Currently, Obama is up around 3.7% over Romney in Wisconsin. If that holds up to election day Obama is a cinch.

Michael said...

RV: Not causal. No more than arguing that because manufacturing collapsed global warming accelerated.

Patrick said...

Wisconsin already has a Columbus. I recommend the pie at the Family Restaurant if ya happen to stop by.


For reasons I no longer recall, I drove through Columbus, WI years ago to meet my brother. Is that the town with the Campbells' plant? If so, in my memory anyway, it's a nice town.

TosaGuy said...

"I don't think Wisconsin, which is a manufacturing, diary state, appreciates the kind of business Romney likes as this points out"

So how has Obama been good to either sector?

If Dane County, where gov't is the main industry, did not exist, then WI would be a lock for Romney.

edutcher said...

Roger, everything you say is right on (what else is news?).

If AF wants, there's a very good piece at PJ Media that elaborates.

Roger J. said...

Garage--I would only suggest that given the motivations of pollsters that averaging polls may be nothing more than the garbage in-garbage out factor. The Average of bad polls is a bad average. The nature of polling has changed so dramatically in the past 10 years that only the pollsters who can adjust are going to survive.

Ruth Anne Adams said...

As a Columbus girl, I recommend the old style supper club Capri in downtown Columbus and the much newer Italian restaurant around the corner, Napoli.

You will get good food at a good price with very attentive service at both.

Jeffrey Levin said...

Roesch/Voltaire

You need to look at mfg employment at a granular level. Let me give you a few amazing statistics about US manufacturing employment since the 1970's. Many, many people say that MFG employment has decreased steadily since the 1970's. That is only partially true.

If you break MFG employment down between UNION and NON-UNION a surprising factoid emerges. NON-UNION employment has not decreased since the 1970's. Its only UNION MFG employment that has decreased. Primarily in the auto and textile areas. However, the decline in UNION auto employment has been more than made up by NON-UNION auto employment growth.

So actually what has happened to US Manufacturing is that Union MFG has died. Which can be born out by the simple statistic. Number of Union Companies started since the passage of the 1980 MPAA act was signed by CARTER. Answer = ZERO.

Kind Regards

Ruth Anne Adams said...

Patrick,
Maybe you're thinking 'Stokely's'?

And you may have had to go thru Columbus before the Highway 151 by-pass was built in the early 80s.

Jeffrey Levin said...

All you have to understand about these polls is what GALLUP just put out. They are indicating that likely voter with lean D/R split will either be R+1 or R-0 this election. You have to understand that 2008 was D+13 for likely with lean and that even 2004 was D+3.

If GALLUP is anywhere close to being accurate, the polls currently in play are meaningless and you will see a 1980 esque wave election result along the likes of what unskewedpolls.com is showing.

Icepick said...

So Wisconsin is the new Ohio, and Ohio was the new Florida. Welcome to Hell, Cheese-heads!

Lem said...

Its good economics for a state to be a toss-up.

A traveling circus comes to town and spends money.

edutcher said...

Speaking of unskewedpolls, I'd advise all the Lefties to stay away from their new electoral map.

It will break their hearts.

Tim said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tim said...

garage mahal said...

"I looked at 14 swing state polls yesterday and Obama was up in 11, and tied in three.

But then I seen a Romney yard sign on the east side and now I don't know what to think."


Ha ha.
Obama-bot thinks "Project New America" and "Public Policy Polling" conduct legit polls.

The worst lies are the ones you tell yourself.

Oh-Bah-Muh, Oh-Bah-Muh, Oh-Bah-Muh, Oh-Bah-Muh.

Roger J. said...

It may be worth noting that campaigns have their own in-house polls. Those figures are not released for obvious reasons, but I think it is possible to draw inferences from what campaigns do and how they act upon that internal polling data. One also suspects, at least I do, that they are polling the party faithful which gives them an assessment of turnout and enthusiasm.

Lem said...

I looked at 14 swing state polls yesterday and Obama was up in 11, and tied in three.

But then I seen a Romney yard sign on the east side and now I don't know what to think
.

Heh.

Roger J. said...

Lem--regretably if the travelling circus is a democratic one, the locals arent going to be reimbursed.

purplepenquin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Patrick said...

That sounds correct, Ruth Anne. It was about 15 years ago, but I took that split when coming down from the Twin Cities.

purplepenquin said...

Had no idea so many folks knew Columbus WI. (Tho, I ain't sure about a Campbell's plant)

I agree about the new Italian place as well as the Capri, but ain't convinced about Hydro yet. Keep trying 'em since they are so close and 'cause they seem like nice people but the food seems to be hit or miss. Even so...if Tosa or Ruth or (practically) anybody else wants to meet there for drinks/snacks I'll be happy to do so.

Patrick said...

Timing is everything, Purple. I made consecutive weekend trips down that way the last two weekends. No idea when I'll be back. Woulda been fun.

BDNYC said...

There are 70 toss-up electoral votes in the Midwest (Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan). Any one of those states could plausibly be the Ohio of 2012.

Roger J. said...

Garage--polling and politics aside, lets talk about important shit: fishing for smallmouths in Door County--when is the best time to go? I am currently in Heber Springs, fishing the little Red for trout but am on break. Hatch is off and weather turning lousy. Your thoughts, sir?

Marshal said...

garage mahal said...
Why don't you go back to ridiculing people for not understanding that Walker is going to lose the recall election?

For at least the 100th time: I never said once Walker would lose


Yes, you're very careful with your parsing. You attack people for saying Walker's going to win, or Romney, but you're careful to never accept responsibility yourself. Why, it's almost like you have nothing substantive to say on any topic ever.

Chuck said...

LOL. This is what I wrote on the Althouse comments pages some days ago.

That Romney could lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania (along with Michigan and the other purplish states) but win the electoral college with the entirely plausible if not likely sweep of NH, VA, NC, FL, CO and NV. All that he needs to add to that list, to win, is Wisconsin.

MadisonMan said...

The last time I was in Columbus was for a funeral for my friend Tom, who grew up there. His older brother Bob still lives in Columbus. The other brother is in Nebraska.

It was a bleak and cold day. Columbus did not look good then, but no town would on a day like that.

garage mahal said...

Garage--polling and politics aside, lets talk about important shit: fishing for smallmouths in Door County--when is the best time to go?

Definitely spring during the spawn in May and into June. Egg Harbor, Fish Creek, Ephraim, Sister Bay, Washington Island and Rowleys Bay. It's an amazing fishery and a beautiful place to visit.

If you let me know ahead of time, I might join you.

harrogate said...

Good thing you have Walker there to make sure it goes the "right" way.

Tristram said...

"It could be paralysis. The current mayor of Philadelphia is a blithering incompetent on the Ray Nagin scale."

Nutter isn't that bad. Street was Nagin-esque. Or Mumbles Merino- esque (Boston). Big drop off from Rendell, to be sure.

I am sure all those helpful Balck Panthers will make sure the true voters get to some voting booths and vote.

Roger J. said...

Garage--thanks much--will continue to be in touch

Sloanasaurus said...

Althouse, you should update your post. Rasmussen now says that today's poll includes the three days that all came after the debate (Tues-Thurs).

Also, Rasmussen reported that the margin the day after the debate was Romney +2. That means the last two days have a much larger margin for Romney. Thus, tomorrows spread could swing back to +4.

As it has been since the beginning of September, much will come down to what the partisan split is. on election day For example, ABC/Wash post says there is a D+4 advantage. Gallup is saying they are even. IBD/TIPP says its D+8, which is why IBD shows Obama +2.

Note that Gallup bases its partisan split on a separate much larger poll. While the others do not. We will see what happens.

dreams said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Astro said...

Let's just hope it's not the next
'W I S C O S N I N'.'.

forest said...

Trumpetdaddy,
You are extremely well informed. That said, you are in error when you say that Obama won Oho by 259k votes. In fact, he won Cuyahoga County by 259; he won the State by 207k.
parchellan

forest said...

Trumpetdaddy,
You are extremely well informed. That said, you are in error when you say that Obama won Oho by 259k votes. In fact, he won Cuyahoga County by 259; he won the State by 207k.
parchellan

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