ALSO: "Crew of HMS Bounty forced to abandon ship as Hurricane Sandy bears down on East Coast."
AND: My "coastal cities" theory could apply to Milwaukee (and tip Wisconsin to Romney). In the most extreme, it could tip Illinois (because of Chicago).
MORE: Nate Silver says:
[I]t is probably unwise to anticipate what affects [sic] the storm might have within particular states, such as whether it might affect the Democratic parts of Pennsylvania more than the Republican ones. Hurricane Sandy is just too large a storm, and has such unpredictable destructive potential, to make reliable guesses about this.Why would it be unwise to anticipate something? It's just speculation based on the available evidence. I suspect Silver is saying that because his methodology involves processing polling, but I don't see what's unwise about thinking about other things unless you impute more weight to the evidence than it deserves. And even if you do... so what? We're just guessing about what will happen in the future. No one is relying on any of this. We're just talking about the future event as we pass the time waiting for Election Day.