October 18, 2012

Real Clear Politics Electoral College map has Romney ahead 206 to 201.

With 131 toss-up states. I don't remember seeing Romney on top in Electoral College votes before.

56 comments:

gerry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Drill SGT said...

you havent

gerry said...

That is so sweet. And Ohio is just +2.4 RCP average, For Obama.

The preference cascade is gaining momentum.

TosaGuy said...

Obama won't win any state that GWB won in both 2000 and 2004.

Drago said...

According to garage, Romney is not gaining, it's just that the electoral college map is becoming less "skewed"....

Dan in Philly said...

"Undecides" always break in favor of who they think is going to win. Last election about this time it was clear O was going to win, turning his win into a rout. This time....

Drago said...

Tosa: "Obama won't win any state that GWB won in both 2000 and 2004."

Keep an eye on Iowa, that one could get away.

John Lynch said...

Wheels are coming off.

What I think the massive negative campaign against Romney accomplished was to keep a lot of voters undecided.

The fact that Obama couldn't get to 50% should have been a warning sign.

Now that the undecideds are deciding, they are breaking for Romney.

Speaking of undecided, decided yet?

Drago said...

RealClear still has Florida as a tossup.

Dream on.

MikeR said...

Take a look there at the chart of "RCP Electoral Spread" for all of 2012. You are correct: It has been blue (Obama ahead) throughout, with just that tiny drop of red from today.

Note, by the way, their "no tossups map" http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
which assigns each tossup a direction. There, Obama is still ahead. We'll see if that changes as well.

alan markus said...

I don't remember seeing Romney on top in Electoral College votes before.

True that. Under the map image there is a column showing "RCP Electoral Count".

Below that is a link that for "More Electoral College Map Changes". Back in April Obama was at 280. October 1st he was 269.

great Unknown said...

A little pedantry here: it should be 131 toss-up "votes", not "states". Unless you are trying to outdo Obama's 57 states.

MikeR said...

I also see, by the way, that Nate Silver gives Romney an 86% chance currently of winning North Carolina.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
I recommend that site, by the way. He may be a lefty, but he cares about reality. He annoys liberal commenters there just as often as conservative. I also heartily recommend his great book, "The Signal and the Noise". Best thing I've ever seen on how one makes predictions, and not too much intrusive math.

great Unknown said...

A little pedantry here: it should be 131 toss-up "votes", not "states". Unless you are trying to outdo Obama's 57 states.

TosaGuy said...

"Keep an eye on Iowa, that one could get away."

Gore won Iowa in 2000.

John Lynch said...

MikeR-

The no tossup map is still blue because the oldest polls in the average are keeping them in Obama's column. In a week those polls will drop off.

MikeR said...

John, I hope you're right, but my license as a prophet expired a while back. I don't know how "momentum" works in politics, and I don't really believe anyone else does either. Just have to wait and see.

Larry J said...

Obama: "It's just a flesh wound!"

TosaGuy said...

"John, I hope you're right, but my license as a prophet expired a while back. I don't know how "momentum" works in politics, and I don't really believe anyone else does either. Just have to wait and see."

You are absolutely correct, but I humbly suggest that a campaign would prefer to be expanding their map at this point in time rather than contracting it.

Tim said...

#ObamaFail:WelfareSpendingJumps32%inFourYears

John Lynch said...

MikeR-

I agree. I'm bad at predictions. But, suppose you were a partisan Democrat looking at the data. Would you be happier with it then you were last month?

John Lynch said...

Expect really long posts by liberal writers and commenters showing how Obama is really doing better.

Drago said...

Tosa: "Gore won Iowa in 2000."

Absolutely right.

I was only thinking about 2004.

Drago said...

John: "Expect really long posts by liberal writers and commenters showing how Obama is really doing better."

Andrew Sullivan is elated.

JohnJ said...

"Keep an eye on Iowa, that one could get away."

Iowa, unbelievably, has been voting since the end of September. Every visit here by Obama or his surrogates has obsessively emphasized early voting.

"Vote now! …before you give it any more thought."

MikeR said...

"You are absolutely correct, but I humbly suggest that a campaign would prefer to be expanding their map at this point in time rather than contracting it." Oh yeah!

furious_a said...


"B-cubed" -- Big Bird and Binders -- will turn it around for Team Obama.

FORWARD!

Jay Vogt said...

Iowa here. For a variety of admittedly antecdotal reasons. I cannot see Romney winnning here. Obama took the state by 9 last time. It's too much ground to make up.

I think it's still uphill for Romney overall. However b/w/o of my crude excel analysis and using the past 30 days of RCP daily averages the std. dev. of an Obama "move" is about exactly one percentage point. Romney's on the other hand, is 1.23 (or about 23% more). In short, it has been exceeding difficult for Obama to move his daily number more than 1% from a sub 50% position. Yet, for every 1% move by Obama, Romney has the opportunity to move the needle 23% more. Clearly there has been less upside potential for Obama.

Will that trend continue? Beats me.

Mark said...
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Mark said...

Five-Thirty-Eight has both MI & PA leaning Obama while Real Clear has them as a toss-up. 538 has NC as a toss up and Real Clear has it as a leaning Romney. This leaves 538 at 237/191 Obama/Romney. It still appears pretty fluid and I expect it will be very close.

Scott said...

More than half of Obama's electoral votes come from just three states -- California, Illinois, and New York. There is something basically wrong with that.

Chuck said...

Others caught it before I did. Should be "...with 131 electoral votes to be decided in toss-up states..."

Only because Ann is so engagingly fastidious (and routinely smart)about langugage.

Gahrie said...

Romney beats Obama at least as badly as Obama beat McCain.

Republicans increase control of the House and take control of the Senate.

Aiken wins.

Gahrie said...

More than half of Obama's electoral votes come from just three states -- California, Illinois, and New York. There is something basically wrong with that.

And it would be worse under a system without the Electoral College, which is exactly why the Left is so desperate to get rid of it.

Big Mike said...

As the great Unknown pointed out, I think you mean 10 tossup states, not 131. Last time I checked there were still just 50.

I think the rout is on. In a comment on a weeks-ago post I predicted Romney by 100 electoral votes. Today's RCP map shows where he'll get them.

The only question left is whether he'll have the coattails to pull in Thompson and most, if not all, of the rest of the tossups for Senate. And he needs to hold or expand the current Republican edge in the House.

traditionalguy said...

Landslide is too weak, a word. There is a tsunami coming.

chickelit said...

( ILL )

campy said...

You guys are in for such a rude awakening on Wednesday 11/7 ...

Dante said...

More indications getting your own base out to vote is more important than the Mighty Middle:

What’s most important for Mitt Romney is that he’s strengthening his position within his own base,” Denno said in a news release. “With the race this close, turnout is crucial. If the election had been held four months ago, some of Romney’s supporters might have stayed home. That’s less likely now.

edutcher said...

As Richard Gephart once famously observed, the fat lady hasn't sung, but I do think I heard her rehearsing backstage.

Levi Starks said...

Republicans are ticked off. they're going to show up in droves and vote for Romney just for spite.
Democrats are disillusioned, and have found out that being in charge isn't as much fun as they'd hoped. They just want the election to be over so this whole BAD "dream" will go away.
We may in fact see a trouncing as bad as when Reagan whupped Carter.

Drago said...

campy: "You guys are in for such a rude awakening on Wednesday 11/7 ..."

Why? Did you set the alarm for 4am?

john said...
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edutcher said...

Hell, there are people who think IL is in play.

(would that it were)

john said...

Scott said...
More than half of Obama's electoral votes come from just three states -- California, Illinois, and New York. There is something basically wrong with that
.

It is theoretically possible to win nearly 70% of the popular vote, the greatest popular landslide in history, and still lose the electoral college. Theoretically; it would never happen. Conversely, one only needs to take a simple majority in 11 specific states to get the electoral win.

Barr will turn Florida for Romney. Go Rosanne!

campy said...

Why? Did you set the alarm for 4am?

Keep that great sense of humor. You're going to need it.

Mike and Sue said...

I'm happy. But where is California? I do not see it in the likely Obama column.

Mike and Sue said...

Oh wait. I see Cali in the solid.

Alex said...

Don't get cocky kid.

edutcher said...

BTW, where's our little mascot, shilol?

You'd think he'd want to share this historic moment?

tim in vermont said...

Draco,
I think maybe his appeal is becoming "more selective."

Better crank those cloying and annoying radio ads to 11! That will fix it, I am sure.

Michael said...

There are no Obama signs in the yards this year, no stickers on the cars. Many people of good faith who voted for Obama have been bitterly disappointed in what he has done and left undone and not done at all. They will not vote for him this year. And they are very quiet about this shift.


The pollsters and the pundits are going to be very surprised. Again.

bagoh20 said...

I went and did my own map as RCP lets you, which is cool.

I got Romney 271, Obama 267

That includes WI going for Romney and giving Obama MI. The Michigan polls are all a week old though.

furious_a said...

Obama's firewall is on fire.

Crunchy Frog said...

New Susquehanna poll has Romney up by 4 in Penn. Haven't looked at the internals though.

Ctmom4 said...

RCP moved New Jersey from Dem to leans Dem. New Jersey!