August 14, 2012

Primary day in Wisconsin.

Low turnout expected. You know what that means: Extra weight to your vote if you vote.

Meade and I took advantage of early voting — which is officially called "in-person absentee voting." I don't like having to do that. I like the theater of going to the polling place on Election Day, but we just couldn't do it this time.

39 comments:

Sheridan said...

If Thompson is selected as the Republican nominee for senator, does that imply an inter-connectedness with the recent win by Walker and the selection of Ryan as VP? What are the internal linkages in Wisconsin that tie candidate selections together? Or are there no linkages?

Pogo said...

Here in MN the Secretary of State made today the time to vote on voter ID, so as to prevent the peons from demanding it in large numbers, knowing that only the stalwarts show up on primary day.

Well, and me too.

Curious George said...

"Sheridan said...
If Thompson is selected as the Republican nominee for senator, does that imply an inter-connectedness with the recent win by Walker and the selection of Ryan as VP? What are the internal linkages in Wisconsin that tie candidate selections together? Or are there no linkages?" If Tommy wins it's because he is Tommy. Which foes a long way here in WI. Nothing more.

edutcher said...

Theater?

I'd like to be part of your household for a couple of days, just to see how you approach everyday life. I have a feeling even life with The Blonde wouldn't be that dramatic.

purplepenquin said...

If Thompson is selected as the Republican nominee for senator, does that imply an inter-connectedness with the recent win by Walker and the selection of Ryan as VP?

Actually, Tommy is the probably the least favorite of the Walker/Ryan supporters. (Well, maybe Neuman too, since he did some attacks on Walker during the primary). The Koch Brothers ran ads against Thompson when he first announced he was running, while they gave/give strong support to both Walker and Ryan.

One of the Fitz brothers is running for the Senate seat. Given the way they closely worked together in the last year I was really surprised that Walker hasn't stepped up for him, but some bloggers are theorizing that he ain't in the race to win but rather using it as a transition role towards being a lobbyist.

Beta Rube said...

I think I'm voting for Hovde. He and Ron Johnson make nice "citizen politician" bookends for the WI Senate team.

Lauderdale Vet said...

It's Primary day here in Florida, too :)

Fen said...

Why is Insty still down?

Curious George said...

"purplepenquin said...
One of the Fitz brothers is running for the Senate seat. Given the way they closely worked together in the last year I was really surprised that Walker hasn't stepped up for him, but some bloggers are theorizing that he ain't in the race to win but rather using it as a transition role towards being a lobbyist."

Walker has not endorsed Fitz, or any candidate, simply because it does not help him. All the GOP candidates have support with part of Walker's base, why piss off the majority of them by endorsing one candidate?

Tibore said...

But professor, compared to the events of the recall drive, can the polling places on election day really be called "theater"? ;)

edutcher said...

Fen said...

Why is Insty still down?

I was there a couple of minutes ago and everything was OK.

edutcher said...

Now he's down again.

He had this yesterday.

The Farmer said...

Glad I read this, I completely forgot!

purplepenquin said...

Extra weight to your vote if you vote.

Same thing when ya vote for a 3rd or 4th party in the general election. With the ballot access laws and whatnot, your vote goes a lot further when you vote outside the TwoParty Duopoly, especially for a presidential race...and the bonus is that you don't usually have to hold your nose while doing so! (Well, maybe sometimes you don't have to hold your nose as much!)

Michael Haz said...

The candidates' internal polling data is all jumbled up as a result of the Ryan selection.

Some candidates' data crunchers think that the Ryan selection froze in place the candidates standings as of last Saturday morning. That would likely predict a Thompson victory.

Others think that the Ryan selection will mean that Romney/Ryan can carry Wisconsin, thereby removing the need for voters to crossover and vote for Thompson in the general election. This will free some voters to vote for a candidate other than Thompson. That especially benefits Hovde.

Most candidate's staffs simply say "beats me" as to who will win. There isn't any polling mechanism or precedent that applies to this election.

Here's a contest to keep your eyes on: Who will replace Paul Ryan in the 1st congressional district, if Ryan becomes VP?

Will Mark Neumann return to Janesville to run for the seat he once held? Will Tim Cullen try to capture the seat for the Dems? Have Tom and Kris barrett been house shopping in Janesville? Hmmm...

My pick: Former state senator Van Wangaard. Solid Republican, good name recogintion, already lives in the district.

Thorley Winston said...

Here in MN the Secretary of State made today the time to vote on voter ID, so as to prevent the peons from demanding it in large numbers, knowing that only the stalwarts show up on primary day.

What are you talking about? I voted this morning and none of the proposed constitutional amendments were on the ballot.

Curious George said...

Michael Haz said...
The candidates' internal polling data is all jumbled up as a result of the Ryan selection.

Some candidates' data crunchers think that the Ryan selection froze in place the candidates standings as of last Saturday morning. That would likely predict a Thompson victory.

Others think that the Ryan selection will mean that Romney/Ryan can carry Wisconsin, thereby removing the need for voters to crossover and vote for Thompson in the general election. This will free some voters to vote for a candidate other than Thompson. That especially benefits Hovde.

Most candidate's staffs simply say "beats me" as to who will win. There isn't any polling mechanism or precedent that applies to this election."

I've read this a few times and not sure I understand why a Ryan selection "would freeze standings in place".

The second paragraph makes no sense to me. Assuming that voters think Ryan on the ticket helps Romney carry Wisconsin in the General, what does that have to do with voters having to cross over and vote for Tommy in the general? And how does that help Hovde? (my guy)


Ruth Anne Adams said...

Curious George,
Let me hazard a guess. When Wisconsin was seen as solid blue or leaning blue, people would have to cross over [not vote straight ticket] to elect Tommy Thompson. He has cross-party appeal and it was thought that he was the *only* candidate for whom moderates would cross over to vote for.

BUT if the state now leans red because of Ryan, then it doesn't matter who is on the GOP Senate slot because any straight party ticket would select him, too.

By the way, Hovde's my guy, too, and I gave him money even though I haven't voted in Wisconsin since the late 80s.

phx said...

You know what that means: Extra weight to your vote if you vote.

I was never great in math, but I don't think that's correct.

Michael Haz said...

@Curious - Ruth Anne got it right while I was driving home.

As far as freezing the results, I meant that the Ryan selection sucked the media out of the senate race. None of the senators had the opportunity for one big last pre-election push.

All four candidates had rallies scheduled for Saturday or Sunday. All the rallies were cancelled, and instead, the candidates wound up standing in the parking lot outside the Romney/Ryan rally shaking hands with citizens and asking for their votes. None was invited into the rally.

The exit polling must indicate that Thompson is falling. His campaign has bombarded our home phone with robocalls all afternoon. I think we got eight of them between noon and 6 PM.

I voted for Hovde. I have no idea whether he'll win, and I'm pretty good and Wisconsin electoral politics. The news I'm getting tells me that the voters may be breaking for Fitzgerald in larger than expected numbers.

Pogo said...

@Thorley

you're right!!

I just voted and saw the same thing. Very strange, as even some election judges I know we're wondering if that'd affect turnout.

MadisonMan said...

I voted for Hovde.

Pathetic choices on the Democratic side.

Petunia said...

There was a young man with Down syndrome voting ahead of me today. He was registered and gave his name and address with no problem. The lady who came in with him sat and waited for him to vote and didn't help him at all.

He asked a poll worker for help finding "his" candidate's name on the ballot, and the name he gave really didn't resemble the candidate's actual name, and he didn't know what party he was in or what office he was running for. But the name he gave was closer to one name than any of the others, and one of the other poll workers, who was across the room, told him to vote for that person, who just happens to be the local favorite.

Not the Senate race, BTW.

wef said...

So now the probability of your vote influencing the outcome goes up from roughly that of being struck by lightning four days in a row to that of being struck three days in a row. What's that? A 25% increase or something?

Jason said...

I voted for Hovde. I have no idea whether he'll win, and I'm pretty good and Wisconsin electoral politics. The news I'm getting tells me that the voters may be breaking for Fitzgerald in larger than expected numbers.

Ive also heard that Fitz is doing better than expected. That being said, if he doesnt clean up in SE Wisconsin, I dont see how he can do any better than a distant third. I live in SW Wisconsin, and didnt hear or see one ad of his the entire campaign.

One of the Fitz brothers is running for the Senate seat. Given the way they closely worked together in the last year I was really surprised that Walker hasn't stepped up for him, but some bloggers are theorizing that he ain't in the race to win but rather using it as a transition role towards being a lobbyist.

Walker is endorsing Travis Tranel over Dave Kuhle down here in my neck of the woods for State Assembly on the Republican side, so Walker staying out of this was a choice...probably because he prefers somebody other than Tommy and didnt want to get stuck backing a loser if Tommy goes down tonight.

Curious George said...

"Michael Haz said...
@Curious - Ruth Anne got it right while I was driving home."

Got it. I'm not sure most people connect the dots that way but we'll see. I hope your right.

I also think that any of these guys will beat Baldwin. The general elction and Obama will only tighten the vote. She will lose regardless.

frank said...

One wonders if all the Hovde, Neuman, Fitz voters are pulling for Harry Reid, lol.

Calypso Facto said...

Thompson leading with just 3% reporting right now. Although Hovde is close. It'll be interesting, but I agree with CG in the end that any one of them will win against Baldwin.

frank said...

CG,CF: Of course "any" will beat Tammy, sure thing, right? Then again--how many indies and dems will cross-over if TT is on the ballot? Let's be REAL CONSERVATIVE--like RIGHT WING "thinkers" say about 2-3% will go with Romney/Ryan if TT is running. Now predict Hovde/Neuman 'draw' for the top of the ticket, heh.

Calypso Facto said...

Not sure if I follow you, frank, but if your saying that Thompson is a "safer" choice, I agree. Just perhaps not the best from a conservative or libertarian perspective. That doesn't invalidate my guess that either Hovde or Neumann could beat Baldwin too.

12% in and Hovde has the lead. I'm a little surprised. Looking at the map I figured Hovde and Neumann would be cancelling each other out and Thompson would cruise.

frank said...

CF--not important--I think we can agree 1 county will decide the race--the 1 that reports results tomorrow--or next week, lol.

but I am a robot said...

I voted for TT because he can give a great speech.

Calypso Facto said...

60% in and Thompson doggedly holding onto a 3% lead over Hovde for most of the reporting cycles.

Calypso Facto said...

83% in and they're calling it for Tommy. Tommy v. Tammy in November.

frank said...

Dodged a bullet there. I guess money can't buy a senate seat in Wisconsin anymore, lol. Are we getting that sophisticated?

Calypso Facto said...

I guess money can't buy a senate seat in Wisconsin anymore

Said without a hint of irony about the seat Herb Kohl, one of the Senate's richest members, occupied for so long....

The Farmer said...

Michael Haz said...
The news I'm getting tells me that the voters may be breaking for Fitzgerald in larger than expected numbers.


LOL!

The Farmer said...

Jason said...
Ive also heard that Fitz is doing better than expected.


Where were you guys hearing that?

Michael Haz said...

Where were you guys hearing that?

From exit poll workers in several districts in central Wisconsin.