January 28, 2012

The interplay between the Wisconsin recall and the November elections.

Business Insider has some analysis of a subject that deserves a lot of attention:
"It’s possible the recall elections will rally Wisconsin Democrats, spurring them to keep up the fight by heading to the polls in November. However, the recall election will not be cheap....

Democrats outside the state have expressed concern about sinking money into a statewide election so soon before the presidential race. There is also a chance that adding another hot contest to the year’s election calendar will induce voter fatigue, leaving would-be voters unwilling to summon the energy to make their way back to the polls again in November. In a state as evenly divided as Wisconsin, voter turnout is critical....

In the background, Wisconsin is also considering a proposal that would change the way it allots its Electoral College votes from a winner-take-all model to a representative one based on congressional districts. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that currently determine their Electoral College votes this way.... [I]f the proposal did somehow pass, it could deprive Obama of the last few votes he needs to win a close race, even if he narrowly carries Wisconsin.

48 comments:

Tyrone Slothrop said...

In politics, nothing succeeds like success. The incumbent advantage demonstrates this. When Walker beats the recall, Wisconsin fence-sitters won't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Walker's success will still be fresh in their minds in November.

NYTNewYorker said...

Voter fatigue? If this doesn't exist already in Wisconsin, it never will.

S said...

I (rebuttably) presume that the proposal to split up the state's electoral votes is entirely partisan. Even though I oppose Obama and think he's likely to win Wisconsin in a close national election, I don't like this, and it would actually give me an extra reason to hope the Republican candidate wins Wisconsin.

Kirk Parker said...

"Wisconsin is also considering a proposal that would change the way it allots its Electoral College votes from a winner-take-all model to a representative one based on congressional districts."

Terrible idea. Kiss of death.

Dante said...

A representative electoral college allocation makes lots of sense for states like CA that are beholden to a political party and as a result get very little attention from either Democrats or Republicans, yet would otherwise have lots of votes up for grabs.

It makes little sense for Wisconsin. Now that Romney has lied his way into a good position in Florida, it makes even less sense. Romney does not have the energy of a Newt Gingrich to do anything substantial as President. So why put in a law that is not good for Wisconsin.

traditionalguy said...

The candidates facial image being seen over and over again creates a link in people's minds/souls that likes what is familiar.

So the Dems will not have a chance running a newcomer. They need to run Feingold to match up against the now familiar Walker mug.

Jay said...

There is also a chance that adding another hot contest to the year’s election calendar will induce voter fatigue,

For the left, I doubt it. They never miss a chance to cheat and frankly aren't that enamored with the structure of our representative republic. Which is why the have a fetish for China, want to cancel elections, and Obama himself can declare when the Senate is in recess.

YoungHegelian said...

So, NOW, after all the hoopla over getting signatures and all the anti-Walker rhetoric, some wiser heads among the WI Democrats are figuring out that a recall election may not be a good idea in the middle of a national election year.

I'm sorry, I thought the Republicans were the stupid party....

They haven't even picked a challenger candidate against Walker yet, so all that intra-Democratic bloodletting is yet to come.

Wisconsin Democrats are like a dog chasing a car. What will the dog do with it when he catches it?

AJ Lynch said...

The 2000 prez election pushed libruls over the edge. They became even more terminally unhappy. So they and their attorneys scheme and devise strategies that they hope will shift the balance of power to them forever. Most far left libruls need mental help.

John Stodder said...

What exactly has Romney lied abou, Dante? And what is the basis for your perception that he lacks Gingrich's "energy?" Aren't you confusing lack of discipline on Newt's part for energy? He's a hummingbird; fun to watch but won't produce much of substance.

cubanbob said...

Is there some requirement in the WI election laws that the recall election be held prior to the November election? If not, then it would cheaper to hold it on November on election day. Besides why things easier for the democrats?

garage mahal said...

So, anything else going on that might effect the recalls, I wonder? #writersblock

DaveW said...

I don't know about voter fatigue, but what about getting demoralized?

Suppose for a minute that Walker wins after an expensive and brutal fight. Isn't it possible that the left - specifically unions - will feel the fight is lost and some will stay home?

I can imagine that sort of dynamic.

garage mahal said...

er, affect

Opfor311 said...

As someone who lives in Nebraska, I'd encourage Wisconsin, or any other state for that matter, to go the Nebraska/Maine method of allocating Electoral College votes. By doing so, the state encourages candidates to come and campaign for votes that they would otherwise have no chance to obtain. It also allows the country to be closer to having more democratic elections while not having to do an end run around the constitution.

James said...

"Wisconsin is also considering a proposal that would change the way it allots its Electoral College votes from a winner-take-all model to a representative one based on congressional districts."

Wisconsin Democrats were considering the idea; its not even on the radar for Republicans. Google outfits like "Center for Voting and Democracy" and you'll see its people like Lani Guinier who are really pushing the idea.

Its similar to the Secretary of State project where Dems have been trying to get "progressive" candidates elected who will decide in their favor in close elections like in Washington State and Minnesota.

kcom said...

"The 2000 prez election pushed libruls over the edge."

In hindsight, I think you're correct. They haven't been right in the head since then (no pun intended).

James said...

I've been arguing for a while now that a drawn out recall process favor Scott Walker. The anti-Obama sentiment will also favor Walker down ballot as most people will vote a straight Republican ticket.

AJ Lynch said...

Plus libruls fell in love with the Clinton presidency and the TV show, The West Wing, in the late 1990's. They deluded themslves into believing most Americans loved that too. The 2000 election was their ugly awakening.

crosspatch said...

I have always been in favor of giving two electoral votes (representing the seats of the Senators) who carry the state as a whole and then one (representing the House members) for whoever wins each House district. That would make the electoral votes more closely match the popular vote.

The drawback is that it would potentially allow a third party candidate to collect electoral votes. I believe this is one reason why the major parties don't like this idea.

Lem said...

[I]f the proposal did somehow pass, it could deprive Obama of the last few votes he needs to win a close race, even if he narrowly carries Wisconsin.

Republicans could learn some lessons from democrats..

Anything that could remotely put Obamas reelection in jeopardy is given considerable attention and priority..

So, anything else going on that might effect the recalls, I wonder?

garage according to the democrat party you got his priorities backwards.

wv bidne ; Obamas SOTU pronunciation of the word business.

edutcher said...

Be careful of that for which you wish, you may get it.

The Demos may be repeating that line again and again.

John Stodder said...

What exactly has Romney lied about, Dante?

Think he means the Newt Hated Ron blitz a couple of days ago.

At first, there were a lot of counter posts about how Abrams lied, etc.; now some blogs such as Power Line are saying it wasn't that cut and dried.

chickenlittle said...

OT, but how come there haven't been any lake ice photos this year? Is it just snowed over tundra?

I miss reading about iceholes.

chickenlittle said...

I think that the recall is doomed because Wisconsin people are going to turn out for Romney (if nominated). Those same people will send the recall effort back to Illinois along with Obama.

Lem said...

My earliest memories of Newt are that he had a knack for rattling Tip O Neil's cage.. with his after regular session speeches.. with the then mint CSPAN coverage.

Lem said...

Hi chicklitt.. I didn't recognise you by the new avatar..

I usually only read certain people.

(that's my confession for the day)

Fen said...

Stupid idea. As more states do this, they take themelves off the map. Candidates will cater to winner-take-all states. As will appropriations.

Who gets the next Super Collider? The state that may flip from 16-18 EVs to 18-16 in my favor, or the state that will flip +34 to me?

Original Mike said...

"They haven't even picked a challenger candidate against Walker yet, so all that intra-Democratic bloodletting is yet to come."

This could be great theater.

Lem said...

Btw.. don't mean to get off topic but maybe its an idea for a post..

Whats the difference between Newt and VP Biden?

Maybe somebody thought of it already.. if the republican establishment hasn't ;)

Original Mike said...

"Who gets the next Super Collider?"

Who got the last one?

AJ Lynch said...

"Great theater"? Sorry Mike, I think it would be more like a bad bad re-run starring the same old protestora AKA whining losers we saw last year in Madison.

AJ Lynch said...

"Super Collider"..heh that is what the all the chicks call me.

Lem said...

".. so all that intra-Democratic bloodletting is yet to come."

The intense dislike for Walker may assuage them to dispense with that..

(I want credit for using that word :)

Btw.. if the dislike for Obama is so intense as democrats like to claim.. doesn't the Newt Romney holocaust belie that assumption?

Lem said...

Maybe holocaust is the wrong word.. but you all know what I mean.

Original Mike said...

"...more like a bad bad re-run starring the same old protestora AKA whining losers we saw last year in Madison."

To be clear, I'm referring to the Democratic primary.

Carol_Herman said...

HA HA HA!

Yes, there's an enormous supply of "mischief money." Doesn't mean it's selling to consumers, ya know?

Wisconsin is a "toss up" state. The states that are going to vote republican, no matter what,is a known factor.

There's another reality.

Since Newt just energized the primary process ... And, it seems he tilted the table ... No one really knows what's gonna happen t'marra.

Rush Limbaugh, however, made an excellent point ... a 40-minute segment ... where he really doesn't know what to make of all the hits against Newt. Except his belief that "it's coordinated."

And, then he ends up saying: "Ya know what? It's in the GOP's best interest NOT to have a frontrunner yet!

Rush points out the obscene amounts of money Obama has. And, IF it's gonna be known BEFORE MARCH ... who is leading the GOP ... then Obama can concentrate all his fire against this one guy.

Imagine if Obama has to shoot in multiple directions?

Then Obama burns money. And, has too many targets. Where concentrating on one of them ... favors Obama.

I thank Newt for making this process so much better to watch.

Carol_Herman said...

We know from the media, that they love the atmospherics of "close elections."

Since the East Coast WAS weighted favorably to Obama ... I have suspected that the media would try to create a "wave." And, swamp the country with predictions.

Remember when they said Gore won? (Even though Gore lost his home state of Tennessee?)

Walker, however, has not arrived at the point where he is a main stage player.

Does Walker, however, expose union activity? YUP.

Can you get people to change their minds over this? You've got a "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" banner you can spare them?

Carol_Herman said...

Newt's holding back for a reason.

And, I think Santorum just left Florida.

Florida, by the way, comes in TWO time zones! Expect Tuesday's results, ahead, to be full of hanky-panky. Can such lunacy grow an audience?

David said...

"[I]f the proposal did somehow pass, it could deprive Obama of the last few votes he needs to win a close race, even if he narrowly carries Wisconsin."

It could also deprive the Republican candidate in the same manner.

For sure, it will deprive Wisconsin of influence and clout in future elections.

Lem said...

In the background, Wisconsin is also considering a proposal that would change the way it allots its Electoral College votes from a winner-take-all model to a representative one based on congressional districts.

If its politically disadvantageous to do it.. then I'm for it.
In the sense of getting spending under control..
Lets have all states do it that way.. not to mention it sounds more fair.

I'm willing to entertain the cons.. other than what I've read so far.

Lem said...

As far as getting spending under control.. I don't know whats worst.

A lame duck Obama or a fresh new spender.. between Newt and Romney,
its difficult to decipher who would spend less.

That's why Gov Walker is such an efing hero.. to me. B for brass balls.

Ralph L said...

If they apportioned all electors by congressional district, there would be even bigger fights over redistricting and the census. I think we would have even more polarized politics, as the Dems wouldn't bother appealing to non-urban areas and Repubs ignored the big cities.

Big Mike said...

I'm sorry, I thought the Republicans were the stupid party....

Only if you believed Democrat propaganda.

Carnifex said...

The fear of Demmoney drying up has to be factored with the understanding that Dead Elephants ar also sucking up money not usually allocated. I my book(a ledger), that comes out a zero sum game for both parties.

It's like a bad football team (and being a UK fan, I know bad football) saying,"We'll be better with another year of experience for our kids". Which totally ignores that everyone else is getting a year of experience too.

As a lot on here predict, I also see voter fatigue creeping up on the mob. You can only emote so much before you burn out, and your progressives have burned so very bright.

Good for Walker.

reformed trucker said...

"Maybe holocaust is the wrong word... but you all know what I mean." - Lem

Mutually assured self destruction or circular firing squad comes to mind.

Dante said...

John Stodder

Romney, in his ad he endorsed, the lie was made Gingrich claimed Spanish was a gutter language. Either Romney lied about his endorsement or he lied about Gingrich's position. Romney said during the debate he had no knowledge of the ad.

Here are other alleged lies:

http://www.newt.org/news/mitts-five-falsehoods-and-counting-cnn-debate

Michael McNeil said...

He's a hummingbird; fun to watch but won't produce much of substance.

Perhaps that's true, but it's not necessarily so. (And how do people know when they make such absolutist statements about complex folk and the unknown future?) Anyway, as Mark Levin put it just the other day, “Newt did more for the conservative movement than virtually all of his critics today.”

RonF said...

I once saw an analyzis of the last 8 elections or so where someone actually did the research and determined what the electoral vote total would have been if every state apportioned their electoral votes on a per-Congressional district basis (with the two Senatorial seat electoral vote equivalents going to the overall State's winner). I wish I could find it. Apparently only one of the last 8 or so elections would have been different, (Bush 1st I believe) and that would have been very narrow.

Carol:

"Florida, by the way, comes in TWO time zones! Expect Tuesday's results, ahead, to be full of hanky-panky. Can such lunacy grow an audience?"

The entire state of Florida is in the Eastern time zone. What are you talking about?