... Gallup’s survey — and some other generic ballot polls — are still polling registered rather than likely voters, whereas its polls of likely voters are generally more reliable in midterm elections. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve found that the gap between registered and likely voter polls this year is about 4 points in the Republicans’ favor — so a 10-point lead in a registered voter poll is the equivalent of about 14 points on a likely-voter basis.
August 31, 2010
Seriously? The GOP has a 10-point lead on the generic ballot? Actually, it's more like a 14-point lead.
After trying to minimize the 10-point lead — "probably an outlier of sorts"— Nate Silver delivers the bad news to NYT readers: