October 14, 2009

The Dow tops 10,000.

And:
A year after accepting a bailout from Washington, a resurgent JPMorgan Chase reported another round of surprisingly strong profits on Wednesday, strengthening its position at the pinnacle of American finance.

... $3.6 billion in profit for the third quarter...

147 comments:

Alex said...

All hail Obama, he cured the stock market!

former law student said...

Could the bailouts have worked?

Nahhhhhhhhhhhh.

Our grandchildren's grandchildren will work 100 hours a week to pay off that debt.

Triangle Man said...

Alex, just like Clinton before him.

k*thy said...

It's probably a big reason that Sub-Zero just called back and added over 200 positions. People are thinking they have the extra to spend on home remodeling.

chickenlittle said...

Equities signalling inflation ahead!

jwr said...

... Goldman Sachs is also paying out $20 Billion in bonuses this year after getting bailed out last year, it's all a farce as the dollar loses more and more of its value by the day and we get saddled with trillions more debt.

Parker Smith said...

And increases in the price of gold are outpacing the increases in the markets - make of that what you will, but it does take a bit of the shine off of this, I think.

Charlie K. said...

Another Obama failure! The country is falling apart!!

John said...

But the increase in the Dow is offset by the fall in the dollar. In real terms, the markets are pretty stagnant. Remember, if a company is priced in dollars and the value of the dollar goes down, the price of the stock has to go up just to keep its same value.

Original Mike said...

Did the "Dow 10,000" baseball caps come out again?

The first time the Dow crossed 10,000, traders on the floor were sporting "Dow 10,000" baseball caps. Then, when the Dow fell back below 10,000 for the first time, some of the traders brought the caps out again.

Those jokers.

John said...

"Could the bailouts have worked?"

They seem to have bailed out Goldman Sachs, which sadly I think was the real reason behind them. But, there are still a gazillion zombie banks and Congress is pushing for lending to people who can't afford it in order to prop up the housing market. The stock market went up a lot in 1930 to. It was called a suckers rally.

Balfegor said...

Our grandchildren's grandchildren will work 100 hours a week to pay off that debt.

Sure, but it was totally worth it, so all those bankers could collect their bonuses again.

John Lynch said...

OK, gold and the stock market don't typically go up together. One or both is a bubble.

Eric said...

... $3.6 billion in profit for the third quarter...

As I understand it not all the banks were actually in trouble at the time of the bailout. The healthy banks were forced to take bailout money to keep people from identifying the ones that were in trouble.

So it's not surprising some of them are posting healthy profits.

Balfegor said...

But the increase in the Dow is offset by the fall in the dollar. In real terms, the markets are pretty stagnant. Remember, if a company is priced in dollars and the value of the dollar goes down, the price of the stock has to go up just to keep its same value.

I have noticed this, and it does seem like some of the larger volatility in the stock market over the past while has been tied to fluctuations in the dollar, at least when I eyeball it.

That said, though, when did the Dow crest 10,000? When I look on Google Finance, it looks like it almost got there twice, and then fell back. I've been waiting all day to see if it hits 10,000, and I missed it?

Balfegor said...

Oh, heading up again. Will we make it?

LarsPorsena said...

This isn't going to last. This is a sucker's rally. But, if you are a fan of BO, by all means, take out a second on your home and go all in.

There is a complete disconnect between the economy and the market.
The stimulus money that went to the banks has been pumped to the market.

Balfegor said...

Oh, nevermind. It looks like it momentarily hit 10,001.58 at some point, it just doesn't show up on the plots. Oh well.

Balfegor said...

The stimulus money that went to the banks has been pumped to the market.

Strictly speaking, I don't think the stimulus went to the banks. For the most part, it didn't, at least. The bank bailouts were TARP (under Bush II) and TARP II (under Obama). The Fed has also made various policy changes to assist the banks.

Lem said...

you could not pay me to get on that hot air balloon so soon.

Eric said...

OK, gold and the stock market don't typically go up together. One or both is a bubble.

Not necessarily. The most likely reason they're both going up is because they represent physical things. This is a direct result of the devaluing dollar.

You would expect to see the price of gold and other commodities (like oil) go up along with equities. Which they have, in spades. Land, too, but we won't see the real estate numbers for a quarter or so.

Original Mike said...

you could not pay me to get on that hot air balloon so soon.

I agree with Lars (sucker's rally). I'm trying to decide when to jump out of the basket.

garage mahal said...

No "Obama stumbles" tag?

kathleen said...

Bailout worked GREAT for the bankers, as it was meant to. that's why some of us didn't want it passed.

bearbee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rhhardin said...

The bailouts were to bypass a dysfunctional legal system by avoiding the bankrupcy avalanche that would otherwise result, tying up capital in court for a hundred years.

The stockholders did not get bailed out. There were mostly more or less wiped out.

Bank profits presumably are rebuilding capital under new owners.

What happend beyond that is liberal mission creep.

Money velocity is still zero, as a side effect or symptom of bank capital rebuilding.

There's another crisis in commercial loans coming, unless Obama stops this overregulation and taxing of everything very fast.

Jon said...

Next milestone: Unemployment tops 10%.

AllenS said...

Last week I received my quarterly summation of my mutual funds, and they are still worth less than what I paid for them. I don't trust the market. Something stinks.

bearbee said...

OK, gold and the stock market don't typically go up together. One or both is a bubble.

Gold responds inverse to the dollar. Dollar chart

Took 26 years for the Dow to surpass the 1929 high with strong bear rallies in between:

Dow high pre-1929 crash: 381.17
Dow at 1929 crash: 198.69
Dow 1929 post crash bounce: 260ish (+31%)
Dow 1929 year end: 275ish (+38%)
Dow 1930 high: 290ish (+45.7%)
Dow 1932 subsequent retracement:: 41.22
Dow overall top to bottom decline: 89.2%
Dow in 1955 surpasses 381.17

David said...

Completely wrong, RH. Except in the case of Lehman, the stockholders and the bondholders of the banks were bailed out. Now I happen to think this was a distasteful but necessary step, but to pretend that the TARP money and other policies (guarantees of commercial paper, anyone?) did not directly and greatly benefit financial institution bond and stock holders is plain wrong.

LarsPorsena said...

"There's another crisis in commercial loans coming, unless Obama stops this overregulation and taxing of everything very fast."

Big commercial real estate problems for years 2010 thru 2012. $500 billion in loan calls in each of those years. There's gonna's be a whole lotta' repo-ing going on.
Lot's of nonperforming retail, warehouse, and office going down and back to the banks. The worst is not behind us.

David said...

Right now the stock market is giving much more weight to the positive of rebounding profits than to the negatives of potential inflation, interest rate increases and even higher (it's quite possible) federal deficits, which would make federal borrowing crushingly expensive. I'm short the stock market. This hasn't been a successful strategy yet, but I'm not giving it up.

On the other hand, I should remember what Keynes said: "The markets can remain irrational a lot longer than I can remain solvent."

rhhardin said...

Completely wrong, RH.

Look at a chart of, say, Citicorp.

From over $55 to $1.03, which might as well be zero except then people really would be buying it all up.

(I don't know if the link works as given or if it depends on internal cookie settings as well.)

Shanna said...

So...now we're only down 4 or 5 grand from last year. Yay?

rhhardin said...

Inflation kills the stock market, by the way. It's not an inflation hedge.

Gold isn't much of a hedge either, varying over a factor of ten in _purchasing power_ since the 70s. It's a commodity speculation.

There are inflation hedges easily available: Treasury TIPS bonds, and I-series savings bonds.

Both will tax you for gains on inflation, the former each year even though you have received no money from them (a big drawback except in an IRA), and the latter when they mature (but you can buy only $5k a year).

SteveR said...

My late baby boomer outlook is to expect to remain broke, work until I die, and never see anything in the way of Social Security and Medicare that helps in a meaningful way. Anything beyond that will be great.

These folks lamenting the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars from investments is a world I don't live in.

I am happy and that's beyond value.

Scott M said...

Wait...

Nancy and Henry taught me that jobless recoveries were bad. How can this be good economic news?

Original Mike said...

Completely wrong, RH. Except in the case of Lehman, the stockholders and the bondholders of the banks were bailed out.

Can you explain your comment further, David? I don't see what you're getting at.

LarsPorsena said...

Dow 10,000 with 10% unemployment.
Dow 11,000 with 11% unemployment?

David:
"On the other hand, I should remember what Keynes said: "The markets can remain irrational a lot longer than I can remain solvent."

My shorts are being squeezed too;-)

Grim said...

I give Obama full credit for this rally. Just as I will give him full credit when it crashes to 5000 in the next few months. Responsibility is an unforgiving bitch.

MadisonMan said...

This isn't going to last. This is a sucker's rally.

I first heard this about 3000 points ago.

Balfegor said...

We have decisively crossed the 10,000 mark! ジーク・ジオン!!

Original Mike said...

MM - I mean long term. I do not believe valuations will survive the debt we, apparently, are going to incur over the next few years. Short term (say the next year) I have no clue.

traditionalguy said...

The great liquidity in the markets is pushing fund managers to invest in something not to look bad to their customers. Staying in cash is not easy to defend when the dollar value is shrinking. Most likely this market will bust again and we will see a double dip recession. Drilling for oil is the only avaiable magic bullet to prop the dollar, but that is illegal according to Congress and Obama who frankly seem to thrive in chaos and crisis of every form and fashion.

Pogo said...

One of these things does not belong:

The Dow tops 10,000.

Bloomberg reports retails sales fell 2.1% in September – the biggest decrease this year.

Mortgage lenders expect the peak in foreclosures to come about a year from now, and the bottom of price declines in 2013 or beyond.

The privately employed are taking deep pay cuts. The total weekly pay index for production workers, representing 80% of the work force, has fallen for nine consecutive months, unprecedented in over the 44 years.

Chip Ahoy said...

Yay! Hurray! Socialism, intergenerational theft, and expansion of government into every aspect of our lives is vindicated!

* dances by crossing my arms and squatting and alternately sticking my legs straight out *

edutcher said...

I heard a lot about a "paper" recovery at the beginning of the year. Regardless of the Dow, nobody's lending, so nobody's growing or hiring.

Paper it is.

WV "jijacrat" garage, LE, Montagne, etc.

TosaGuy said...

Like the Nobel Political Prize and foreign policy, 10K Dow is a clear line in the economy. Both events fully place all subsequent outcomes (both fairly and unfairly) squarely on Obama's shoulders. He can no longer blame George W. Bush. He owns it.

Daniel said...

Greatest story never told.

Titus said...

Do straighty women enjoy having their nipples bit, somewhat hard, right before they are ready to climax?

My British/Indian boyfriend orders me, "bite my nipples hard" right before he climaxes. He also enjoys blowing on my face.

Would straighty women be ok with a man blowing a load on their face or would they find that humiliating?

My advice though is to close your eyes right before he says I am going to cum.

Also, after we shoot our loads, he unconsciously plays with his foreskin and I find it distracting. We are talking after we do it and he is yanking that thing left and right and up and down. I don't think he should do that but I don't know if I should tell him.

Flexo said...

One of these things does not belong:

The Dow tops 10,000
.

BUBBLE

There is absolutely no rationality to the rise, at least if we are speaking of American investors. I wonder how much of the rise is due to foreign interests buying up stock in American companies and/or to speculators pumping up the price.

My advice? Now that folks have regained some of their losses from before, SELL -- sell the stock and buy guaranteed bonds.

EDH said...

Ladies and gentlemen, start your trailing stop losses!

Original Mike said...

There is absolutely no rationality to the rise

My take is it is rising now because it over shot on the way down.

Cedarford said...

John Lynch said...
OK, gold and the stock market don't typically go up together. One or both is a bubble.


My bet is on gold in a speculative bubble due to financial and other insecurities - notably the crazy Muslim factor and the limit to which the US can borrow.

Gold and silver are notorious for stratospheric spikes, then collapses. Along with certain other commodities in the precious metal sector, and oil.

Look at a tem year chart on gold. The trend is up as the dollar devalues thanks to free trade and deficit spending. The spikes are greedy Swiss, NYC, metal producing countries, and Israeli types speculating.
A good sign this is a bubble is that the savvy investors are not rushing out to start new or reopen old gold mines unless they will be bringing gold to market in the next 2-3 months.
=====================
Pogo said...
One of these things does not belong:

The Dow tops 10,000.

Bloomberg reports retails sales fell 2.1% in September – the biggest decrease this year.


Both belong, Pogo. The market always anticipates future good news or bad news.

vrwcshirts said...

All hail Dear Leader. He has allowed the stock market to hit 10,000.

Daniel said...

It's funny how liberals are talking about the jobless recovery, just like they did during the Bush boom. And yet conservatives are all talking bubble/fakery/stimulus failure, after 8 years of empty stock market increases and bitching about the greatest story never told.

Inconsistent douches.

Pogo said...

The market always anticipates future good news or bad news.

Really?
It failed to anticipate the crash of 29, the crash of '87 or this one.

Until it crashed, which is a bit ex post facto.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

This is just a feature of Obama's new investment plan. Under the plan, government sets all daily stock prices.

Titus said...

Every time I see that Bob's Big Boy icon I get hungry.

They had good food and when I was young my parents used to take me there for breaky and dindin.

Are Bob's Big Boy or Mark's Big Boy still around.

I loved their special sauce on their burgers

former law student said...

Pogo -- he didn't say the market guessed right.

I got used to my stocks going down after reporting good news -- "the market" had already run up the price based on expectations.

Original Mike said...

It failed to anticipate the crash of 29, the crash of '87 or this one.

I think he meant it anticipates the economy (it's kinda hard to anticipate yourself).

Not that its track record is anything to write home about.

bearbee said...

Gold chart since 1975.

Gold in a 22 year bear market from 1980ish to 2002ish. Long consolidation.

Fear pushes investors to gold. Dollar losing safe-haven. China and others exchanging dollar surplus for gold.

Titus said...

I had a Bob's Big Boy Bank when I was young.

I always tried to bouffant my hair up like his.

I loved his hair.

I am going to Lizzy Borden's house this weekend. She was acquitted of murdering her parents you know but she had to live with all the gossip the rest of her life. The House will be haunted this weekend to celebrate the holidays.

And run don't walk to Paranomal Acitivity. The Blair Witch Project of 2009. Cost $10,000 to make and has already made $10 million. It's fabulous

Original Mike said...

re: Big Boy.

I ate at one which had the neon letter "g" burned out.

Thought you'd like to know, Titus.

former law student said...

Bob's Big Boy is resurging in Southern California. Big Boy -- minus the Bob's; formerly Elias Brothers -- are all over Michigan. Corporate headquarters is One Big Boy Drive, Warren MI (hometown of Eminem).

www.bigboy.com

As far as special sauce goes, the Big Boy predates the Big Mac.

As a kid I enjoyed their fish n' chips in the fake British newsprint.

Titus said...

I am into Matzo Ball soup right now.

Thank you.

Titus said...

OMG, I loved the fish and chips with the fake newspaper too.

Lightly breaded cod filets with french fries tarter and slaw...delish.

Titus said...

What I want to know is "Where are the Jobs"?

I tell you where they are.

In Biotech in the Boston area. We have added 300 new positions Q3 and Q4 this year and will be adding another 500 jobs next year.

Good paying jobs too.

Clinical Research, GMP Manufacturing, Validation, QA/QC, Compliance, Business Development, Finance, Marketing, Sales, Cytogenetic Technologist, Biochem Techs, Accessioning, Etc.

Great Benies, excellent opportunity for growth and development and a lovely liberal place to live.

If you are a fag you can even get married.

Come on down!

Original Mike said...

Big Boy -- minus the Bob's; formerly Elias Brothers -- are all over Michigan.

My Bi Boy was in Escanaba.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Ladies and gentlemen, start your trailing stop losses!

Amen.

L. E. Lee said...

Funny, more progressive states seem to have higher standards of living and are more culturally advanced. States with lower standards of living (i.e. Mississippi) tend to be more politically conservative. I guess the market is trying to tell us something and people are voting with their feet.

L. E. Lee said...

BTW, I would encourage my Althouse Hillbilly friends to buy gold. Now! Do it before the Obama crash happens!

Titus said...

I have been skiing in Escanaba.

I also went to Houghton, isn't that where Michigan Tech is?

They used to have a good college hockey team. Is it Houghton or is it somewhere else?

L. E. Lee said...

In fact Althouse Hillbillies would be smart to put all of their money in gold.

Issob Morocco said...

I would posit that this rally is based on the last 12 months of cost cutting (i.e. layoffs) and productivity increase that come with fewer employees. Without job creation (note to liberals, not job saving) these companies will not drive topline growth because when the cost cutting and productivity increases end, which they will, if not already, then they will be stagnant.

I dare say we have not yet seen the bottom of the jobless market as the ripple effect is just now reaching the outer edges of economic engine. Less consumer spending will push down sales and hence profits, leading to the second wave of joblessness next spring.

It is truly amazing to see the lack of effort this administration puts forth to help turn around the economy. Seems like they almost want it to be crushed.

Cheers!

Original Mike said...

I also went to Houghton, isn't that where Michigan Tech is?

Yep. Beautiful country.

The Michigan Tech Huskies were a college hockey powerhouse in the 60's and early 70's. Not so much anymore.

Friday is the start of the new season! Go Badgers!

Eric said...

It's funny how liberals are talking about the jobless recovery, just like they did during the Bush boom.

Except that, unlike during the Bush years unemployment is actually pretty high by historical standards.

Eric said...

I guess the market is trying to tell us something and people are voting with their feet.

That's so true. People are moving out of California in droves. If it wasn't for the illegals LA would be starting to look like Detroit.

chickenlittle said...

Titus: You should consider getting a big long cowmat for your bedroom. After sex, you guys could turn it into a big slip 'n' slide. It would be easy to hose off too.

Titus said...

I used to go out with a guy that had two Shih Tzus and he called them "the cleaning ladies" because after we blew all over his sheets they would come and lick it all up.

Isn't that a cute story?

L. E. Lee said...

Eric wrote
" People are moving out of California in droves."

Yes, people are leaving the politically conservative "ex-burbs" in droves. The last time I checked San Fran and other progressive areas were rocking.

TosaGuy said...

Liberal enclaves are fine places to live if you can afford to live there.

garage mahal said...

Friday is the start of the new season! Go Badgers!

And I got tix :) And the wife doesn't want to go I don't think, so if any Althousians want to go, they could go with garage mahal, for free! I know I know you're probably saying "what's the catch"? None!

AJ Lynch said...

Garage:

Would this person have to stay with you for the entire game?

Are the seats together?

If yes, would the person have to speak with you and explain the game and sport to you?

Can the person bring his Big Number One Foam Finger?

Heh.

L. E. Lee said...

TosaGuy wrote
"Liberal enclaves are fine places to live if you can afford to live there."

Tosa, rank the fifty states by standard of living and then look at which states are "red states" and which states are "blue states". Our federal system, often referred to as our democracy's laboratory is showing us something.

Shanna said...

And I got tix :) And the wife doesn't want to go I don't think, so if any Althousians want to go, they could go with garage mahal, for free!

If only Wisconsin weren’t a bunch of miles away. And really cold.

Original Mike said...

If I didn't have my own tickets, I'd take you up on it, garage (assuming I'd get to bring my Big Number One Foam Finger).

Original Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Titus said...

I always say you have to pay to live in fabulousness.

yes, you don't get much space and parking is a bitch but I love be able to walk to fabulous restaurants, cafes, stores, etc.

And we haven't been impacted by the Real Estate bubble out here as much. A unit in my building sold for 20k over the asking price and it was on the market for 3 days. There was a bidding war. I live right next to Harvard though and the area is very transient so things tend to sell fast here. The broker said another couple who lost out on the unit wants in the building, and yes they are fags. I don't want any more fags in the building. There are already 2 other fag couples and only 12 units-that's enough. I think we need to put a maximum number of fag households in the condo laws.

Original Mike said...

Maybe Madison Man is free.

Eric said...

Yes, people are leaving the politically conservative "ex-burbs" in droves. The last time I checked San Fran and other progressive areas were rocking.

Check again. And the massive river of red ink in California hasn't overflowed its banks yet. Absent a pretty large federal bailout, the state is set to become a much less attractive place. Apparently those rocking progressive people don't actually produce much, and are having trouble making ends meet as the taxpayers pack up and move to Texas.

In general, people are moving out of blue states and into red states. Like you said, voting with their feet.

garage mahal said...

AJ
Optional
Yes
No
Yes

O.M
You have season?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Tosa, rank the fifty states by standard of living and then look at which states are "red states" and which states are "blue states

Define standard of living. Your idea of what constitutes a good standard might be different than other people.

Eric said...

But as a resident of California, let me thank you all in advance for that massive federal bailout. After all, we deserve it, what with America's moral compass and all.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

L. E. Lee said...

Funny, more progressive states ... are more culturally advanced.

That may depend on your definition of 'culturally advanced'. Of course, if you go with the liberal standard of 'abortions per capita', then you are absolutely correct.

MadisonMan said...

I don't like going to hockey games without a Beer Garden. Ever since they left the Coliseum, not so fun.

chickenlittle said...

@Eric: Check the links here. I think they support your arguments.

AJ Lynch said...

Garage:

You, of course, know I am just kidding with you.

MadisonMan said...

Ignorance: Massachusetts has the lowest per capita abortion rate. Mississippi has the highest.

(Note: from memory; possibly incorrect -- but I think the gist is right)

L. E. Lee said...

Eric

"In general, people are moving out of blue states and into red states."

Blue states, because they are popular places to live, can be expensive. As the more progressive areas of traditionally red states grow in population they start swinging blue. Look at Virgina, North Carolina, Nevada, etc.

garage mahal said...

You, of course, know I am just kidding with you.

haha yep, Always.

wv - gatio: the ratio of gays at Titus' apartment complex

Balfegor said...

Re: L.E. Lee:

Funny, more progressive states seem to have higher standards of living and are more culturally advanced. States with lower standards of living (i.e. Mississippi) tend to be more politically conservative. I guess the market is trying to tell us something and people are voting with their feet.

You know, I don't think "voting with their feet" means quite what you think it does. The South is the primary destination for internal migrants, while New England loses the most people to internal migration. If "voting with their feet" is the standard, "progressive" states are the clear losers and "conservative" states the clear winners.

Triangle Man said...

The Fed is pumping out dollars and they have to go somewhere. Look to see if companies are overvalued and then decide if values can continue to rise.

Eric said...

Madison Man: Nope

per 1000 women:
1. New York 30
2. Florida 27
3. Delaware 23
4. Rhode Island 22
5. Nevada 21

43. Mississippi 5
43. West Virginia 5
43. South Dakota 5
46. Kentucky 4
46. Idaho 4

There's only 46 because the latest data for California, Wyoming, Louisiana, and New Hampshire isn't in yet. California always makes the top five.

Eric said...

L. E. Lee, so your contention is people are leaving blue states because they're popular places to live?

MadisonMan said...

Thanks for the correction. After I posted I thought: Wasn't that for divorces? But no -- Massachusetts is very low. Nevada is very high. Mississippi is just sorta high.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Madison Man-

You had me worried, since I posted my snark without checking my facts.

According to the CDC, in 2005 Massachusetts had 17 abortions per 1000 women age 15-44, Mississippi had 10.

New York was highest at 29, Kentucky was lowest at 3.

Balfegor said...

Blue states, because they are popular places to live, can be expensive. As the more progressive areas of traditionally red states grow in population they start swinging blue.

I think the causation is a little more complicated than that.

First, when population density increases, I think people become more comfortable with an overbearing government, because you kind of need that for a city to function the way people expect cities to function.

Second, in urban systems, you get more crushing inequality, the way you see in New York City or in California, where you have utter destitution and the impudence of wealth in constant juxtaposition. This kind of dysfunctional social environment tends (understandably) to make people more sympathetic to the state forcibly redistributing property than when you live in some middle class town or suburb where the range of incomes is comparatively narrow and class markers are less salient. You may all be poorer, on average, than the plutocratic urbanites, but you can still keep up with the Joneses, as it were.

Third, cities do serve to concentrate wealth and enable people to become richer -- they introduce geographic efficiencies that you don't have with a string of towns along a highway, or a bunch of isolated exurbs. And when you're rich, you can afford to adopt all the liberal affectations. It's middle class people who can't afford liberalism, high taxes, free love and all that rubbish -- it makes them into poor people, and makes poor people even poorer.

L. E. Lee said...

No Eric,

My contention is that people are seeking out the blue areas of traditionally red states. Places like northern Virgina, Atlanta, Austin, Houston, etc. People are not moving to the hardcore red parts of these states. And yes people do figure in the high cost of living that goes along with popular blue states and seek out other less expensive areas that are similar. (Even if they are overall red states.)

Balfegor said...

Yes, people are leaving the politically conservative "ex-burbs" in droves. The last time I checked San Fran and other progressive areas were rocking.

Yeah, um. No. Look at page 8:

In contrast, San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont had the largest average annual rate of net outmigration (14.7 per 1,000), followed by New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (11.4), Boston-Cambridge-Quincy (9.5), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana (9.3).

San Francisco is actually doing the worst at retaining residents out of any metropolitan area in the country.

chickenlittle said...

The Fed is pumping out dollars and they have to go somewhere. Look to see if companies are overvalued and then decide if values can continue to rise.

Why can't government worry about pumping out dollars the way they worry about us pumping out carbon dioxide?

Eric said...

And yes people do figure in the high cost of living that goes along with popular blue states and seek out other less expensive areas that are similar. (Even if they are overall red states.

I suspect it's much simpler than that. People move where the jobs are, especially in times of high unemployment. Since urban areas tend to have more jobs, that's where you go when you're moving to another state. Because that's where you found a job.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Eric said...

...so your contention is people are leaving blue states because they're popular places to live?

Like Yogi Berra said, "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

Titus said...

The primary reason I hear people moving out of Mass is cost of real estate.

Mass is a relatively high income, high educated state. One of the highest in the country. Divorce rates are some of the lowest in the country.

And Boston is one of the most walkable cities in the country as a result we are one of the least fat cities.

They get more bang for the buck in the South.

Also, the guys here are really hot which is most important.

I have been everywhere and haven't seen hotter guys anywhere. Lots of italians, jews, irish and hot combos. They make me horny.

Also, lots of Euros. "The Athens of America".

Oh and Brazillians, they are hot too.

former law student said...

San Francisco is actually doing the worst at retaining residents out of any metropolitan area in the country.

If you're out of work, you're better off living just about anywhere else, because of the cost of living. Plus the Bay Area attracts a lot of young people who move back home when the economy is tough, for homesickness. Later people move back when they or their parents need help.

The population is backfilled by immigrants, mostly from Asia.

former law student said...

The South is the primary destination for internal migrants, while New England loses the most people to internal migration. If "voting with their feet" is the standard, "progressive" states are the clear losers and "conservative" states the clear winners.

I would divide this into "cold states" and "warm states." In fact, those who would rather pay their air conditioning bill than their heating bill, and those who would rather cut grass in January than shovel snow, are turning red states blue.

L. E. Lee said...

Titus, pasty white Althouse Hillbilly blubber butts don't get you off?

What if they wore their red plaid caps with the ear flaps while you did them?

Yawww PIGGY!

daubiere said...

is this "hillbillies" routine supposed to be funny? ive seen this commenter use it in a few different threads but it doesnt make sense. althouse doesnt seem like a "hillbilly" site whatever that would be. is the implication that people here are unsophisticated? because even as a sometimes infrequent reader i dont get that impression either. i wasnt born in this country so maybe im missing some other use of the word "hillbilly", but i dont think so.

and is it even acceptable to use the term "hillbillies"? that seems politically incorrect and awfully class-ist for someone who seems to want people to think of them as a liberal. when did liberals decide that it was ok to dump on the rural poor? when did it become politically wise to tout high income urban areas as the best places in the country while sneering at everywhere normal people live? that seems like a basic abandonment of the historical first principles of liberalism and the democratic party?

i encourage this kind of embarrassing snobbery. thats whats going to bring the good ship democrat crashing into the rocks come 2010 and 2012.

tell us more about how san francisco is "rockin". talk about the unsophisticated "red states". tout your fabulous restaurants and exclusive nightlife. im sure the unemployed workers of america will be happy to hear what the "progressive base" thinks of them.


wv: antotin. the typo that ended the promising legal career of one of scalias clerks.

Titus said...

I do miss Wisconsin though.

Love "The Supper Club".

Love Friday Night Beer Battered Perche with soup or juice, salad bar, baked potato, american fries, hash browns, or french fries.

And a brandy old fashioned natch.

At night I go on Wisconsin small town chamber of commerce websites and find the "dining" page and read the menus. Horicon, Onalaska, Black River Falls, Tomah, Sparta, Rice Lake, Park Falls, Minocqua, Marinette, Fennimore, Prairie Du Chien, Reedsburg, Richland Center, and on and on.

Some of their menus aren't that cheap either. Some of them are like $20.00-30.00 and entree. I am like who in Park Falls is paying for that? Maybe people from the Twin Cities.

Titus said...

And when I go back to Wisconsin I have no interest in going to the new hot trendy Madison restaurant.

I want the supper club. With bread sticks and Owl's Nest cheese spread.

My favorite is The Bridge, which is on Lake Wisconsin in Okee just north of Lodi. Love it so much. Their perch is to die for.

You can't get perch on the east coast.

daubiere said...

" Titus, pasty white Althouse Hillbilly blubber butts don't get you off?"

lol i like that the person who touts the superiority of northeastern and bay area metropolitan living has the nerve to call other people "pasty white".

the only people in my large city with "blubber butts" sure arent pasty white i can tell you. theyre also rather culturally unsophisticated, undereducated and generally low income earners. are you going to make fun of them? or are those kind of unsophisticated exempt from this nuanced, "sophisticated" progressive scorn?

hehe

daubiere said...

"With bread sticks and Owl's Nest cheese spread."

is owls nest cheese spread made of actual owls nests? i picture something like that chinese soup made from bird saliva nests.

Titus said...

Did you know that many of the small town supper club menus have deer and bears and blue spruce trees on them?

And many supper clubs have place mats with all kinds of different fish on them. Some of them actually have "contests" where you have to identify each fish. Isn't that brill?

Owls Nest is a supper club in Poynette Wisconsin and they make Owl's Nest Cheese spread. You can even buy it out here. It is delish. Owl's Nest also has a fabulous deep fried Walleye Pike-yum. No walleye out here either.

chickenlittle said...

No walleye out here either.

Don't forget da carp.
Garage likes carp.

Titus said...

Carp? You don't eat carp.

Carp is nasty.

chickenlittle said...

That whole hillybilly thing is a hoot and so five days ago. Link.

My family was from the hills and I am proud of it.

chickenlittle said...

Carp is nasty.

I think so too but garage defended eating it once. I think it was back in 1989.

L. E. Lee said...

Now daubiere,

Being an Althouse Hillbilly has nothing to do with being rural or poor. Rather it is a state of mind.

Be sure to put all of your wealth in gold before the Obama Crash of 2010.

Titus said...

I am watching a PBS program on Joan Baez. She was really pretty and still pretty.

I know she is a commie but she is pretty.

Titus said...

Oh and I miss deep fried cheese curds. Sorry fried mozarella isn't near as great.

I also miss the Plazaburger so bad.

former law student said...

Owl's Nest cheese spread.

I can get Kaukauna Club where I live but it's not in a crock like it was when I was a kid.

My wife grew up with Win Schuler's Bar-Scheeze.

Bruce Hayden said...

If Lee wants to call me a hillbilly, then fine. There are very few places in truly "Blue" America that I would like to live. I like being able to walk to work, or go skiing in the morning and be at my desk before noon. I like having the traffic stop on US 395 outside the office when I cross the street, and if you have problems, like your car breaks down, you get immediate offers of help. I love that I don't have to lock my car, and that I am not going to get mugged going to or from work.

And, for that, what does it cost me? Not income tax, since we don't have one here (yet - but the CA people are migrating here, so that is bound to end). No, what it costs me are the art galleries and museums I never attend, the shows I don't go to, an orchestra that I would fall asleep listening to, and maybe a couple of other things that I really don't miss.

I hate NY City and LA. San Francisco, Wash., D.C., Boston, and Chicago aren't much better. Millions of self-important people vying for the same air space, packed too tightly for comfort.

So, I will just accept being culturally deprived, since I much prefer skiing, hiking, camping, sailing, and even shooting, to all the art and culture available in those Blue cities that Lee is so enamored with.

Titus said...

Joan Baez, the commie, did Bob Dylan and her sister Mimi died of cancer 10 years ago.

She told Mimi she shouldn't be a singer. It has become very emotional at this moment. I feel a need for a group hug coming on. Mimi called the family and said she wants to die. Her relationship with her son Gabe is strong. She was very promiscuous for quite some time, in other words she was a big slut.

My parents are currently in Door County, which my mother always reminds me is like the Cape. I am like yea, sure mom.

I wish I was around in the 60's. I would of been a really cool hippy but I am sure I would of been dead by now.

Titus said...

I would like to have a city and country place.

The country place could be anywhere in The Berkshires, Vermont, New Hampshire or Maine-quiet and away from things but not to far away.

Brattleboro would be cute. Or definitely Portland, Maine which is adorable. Lake Sunapee would be fine too. The maximum from Boston would need to be two hours. I would not want a place on the Cape. The drive is a bitch and it is too crowded and touristy.

I don't even use many of the conveniences that are near me and pay for but I do need to know they are close at hand. I love walking to get groceries and dinner and a bottle of wine and a movie and etc. I hate getting into my 2008 BMW 328XI and drive.

I never drive anywhere when I go out which I do enjoy. No worry about drinking and driving. Also, I love to be able to run out my fab loft and hair a cab in a second.

Titus said...

FYI-the country place would still need an element of fabulousness to it.

I couldn't have a cottage in northern Wisconsin-too remote. I would definitely enjoy staying in one of those remote places for a weekend because I would find it exotic but I wouldn't want a place there.

Even in the country settings of Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire it has quite a bit of fabulousness. It never feels redneck in those places and I smell redneck a mile away.

When you are in northern Wisconsin it can feel kind of redneck and really poor. You see homes up there and say to yourself, "does someone really live there"?

traditionalguy said...

Titus...Anyone who likes Joan Baez is a good person. She had too much integrity for a real hippie lifestyle in the 60's. Her voice still thrills me.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Titus, if you ever find yourself in Minocqua, consider the Norwood Pines Supper Club. The walleye is excellent.

Original Mike said...

Garage: Yes. Both Friday and Saturday nights. I'm kind of a hockey nut.

Triangle Man said...

The maximum from Boston would need to be two hours. I would not want a place on the Cape.

When traffic is bad you can barely make Kittery in 2 hours, but I hear that OOB is becoming fabulous.

bagoh20 said...

My portfolio has more than doubled in the last 4 months, but I will send it all to Obama if he agrees to resign. Wait, that won't work, he never keeps his word.

For me, the market indicates only one thing: investor confidence based on whatever. This feeds on itself in both directions and accounts for the irrational nature of the market. The kind of companies I invest in have, for the most part, had good earnings all along, yet their stocks have swung down and up by over 100%. Irrational is the norm.

L. E. Lee said...

bagoh20 wrote
"Irrational is the norm."

Capitalism thanks you for your confidence.

Leland said...

Dow graph at 10,000 looks more like a summit or plateau rather than say an Everest base camp.

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