I cringed when her chief strategist and my polling colleague, Mark Penn, wrote a 350-page memo several months ago declaring her to be inevitable as the next President of the United States. It was the wrong message for a number of reasons.And now she has come in third. What can she do now? It seems she's already tried everything. After getting dirty with the insinuations about drugs and religion and after using her husband the ex-President as much as he could be used, she faces an opponent who has never gone negative and has acquired a new and powerful aura. We've already seen every possible permutation of Hillary, haven't we?
First, it raised expectations way too high, so she was left running against herself and, secondly, it sounded horribly arrogant, which I still think it was. Number three, it misunderstood—then and now—the genuine anger that voters feel and their willingness to take it out on some of the best-known candidates. Finally, one thing I know about Iowa voters is that they don't like to be told whom they're going to vote for. It is not over, but let me restate here what I've been suggesting in columns, speeches, and media appearances for a couple of months—Sen. Clinton could come in third in Iowa. Thus, arguably the best-known presidential candidate in American history has a ceiling of 25% to 29% in Iowa. Not likely to bring those numbers up, she has tried to go negative at Obama to bring his numbers down. It seems to be backfiring on her.
January 4, 2008
What happened to Hillary?
Here's something pollster John Zogby said back on December 14th:
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21 comments:
- ask Tammy Wynette who stood by her man too
At the end of the day, when people look at Hillary they don't see a warm, caring, trustworthy person and the more she tries to project that image, the phonier she looks.
That doesn't mean that the other candidates are saints, they're not, but everyone knows what Hillary is all about. She's a cold, calculating, control freak, and trying to project otherwise is pure folly.
If Hillary! loses New Hampshire, we'll have to get rid of the "!".
And now she has come in third. What can she do now?
I think the best strategy for her is to stay steady, work hard and to not panic. Any major changes now will reek of desperation.
Dax--
Then maybe she should just say, "Folks, I'm cold. I'm not going to start crying at the drop of a hankie. I'm calculating. You have to be as President. I am a control freak. That's who I am. You want to elect someone because he has a nice smile or you like his haircut, that's your perogative. I'm not going to be your best-friend president, the times are too dangerous for that."
The best thing she's got going for her is her husband. Like him or not, he was in the hot seat for eight years. He would be her first and best advisor.
Whatever John Edwards says, he and Clinton were basically tied - she got 737 delegates he got 744. Strictly speaking she came in third, but let's not oversell this. As Chuck Todd pointed out yesterday, "[n]o one HAS to win [Iowa] more than Edwards," because he has spent more time and focus there than any other candidate. The question's whether you think spending years courting Iowa bought Edwards at least 1% more than he'd have otherwise got; if the answer's "maybe," then in New Hampshire, it's going to be a different story; even if Obama still comes in first, look to Hillary to finish second if it's a rerun of Iowa.
Sheepman - Really? I'd have thought her best strategy would be to go to New Hampshire. And not only are we going to New Hampshire, John Edwards, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York … And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan, and then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House! Yeaararh!!!
George, you ought to replace Mark Penn.
We have not seen every permutation of the anointed one. Remember we know nothing about her. She has kept her past a mystery and her public papers sealed. No one dares investigate her past.
She is truly the mystery candidate and a such she may have many more permutations up her sleeve.
Peter--
I'm just my own microtrend.
Also, check out how Pres. Clinton chewed up and spit out the cowardly Pakistani PM Sharif....Like him or not, Ol' Bill was one tough dude. He did a good job for us in a nuclear war crisis I'd never heard of until a few days ago...
Hillary needs to try being clean and articulate black woman.
She already tried black, but with corn rows and gold teeth before.
George-
"You want to elect someone because he has a nice smile or you like his haircut, that's your perogative"
How you gleaned that from my post is amazingly laughable.
George -
"The best thing she's got going for her is her husband. Like him or not, he was in the hot seat for eight years. He would be her first and best advisor"
Would you like to wager that we see a LOT LESS of HER BEST ADVISER???
wrote a 350-page memo
How long would a position paper be? Nine volumes?
If she gets strafed in New Hampshire, I bet we'll quickly see a "Clinton for Veep '08!" movement in her campaign.
Which would be interesting...after eight years of "Darth Cheney", we'd trade him in for HILARY FREAKIN' CLINTON.
Nobody would put Hillary on their ticket. She hasn't positioned herself to take the number 2 spot, she's burned bridges with most of the other candidates, and she's not likeable. Furthermore, she brings no executive experience and she doesn't bring a state or region into play.
>What can she do now?
The gloves come off. She hasn't begun to get dirty.
I don't like Hill's policies at all. I agree with George, that her best approach, our at least the one that appeals to me is the "Security Mom" one:
Then maybe she should just say, "Folks, I'm cold. I'm not going to start crying at the drop of a hankie. I'm calculating. You have to be as President. I am a control freak. That's who I am. You want to elect someone because he has a nice smile or you like his haircut, that's your perogative. I'm not going to be your best-friend president, the times are too dangerous for that."
"I'm the only Dem tough and calculating enough to keep America safe"
George left out a few sentences from Hillary's come back speech:
"You say you can't trust me, tough sh**. I'm the smartest woman in the world and you all damm well better believe it. And you know something else?--I'm gonna start taking things away from you people so get used to it. One more thing, don't ever, ever get on my bad side; I don't forget, I don't forgive and I always get even.
My fellow Americans, just remember this one thing: Don't get in my way and we'll all get along just fine
Don't get in my way and we'll all get along just fine
Yah. She tried this "my way or the highway" approach with universal health care. It didn't work.
Hillary is no consensus builder. And of all the possible leadership models, her Lucy Van Pelt is the least effective.
She is just running in the wrong election. The big three (Clinton, Edwards, Obama) all have essentially the same positions on everything. And the democratic voter is going to vote for the one they believe can bring *change*. Obama is far and away doing the best job of selling that image.
Clinton's message is especially suspect: My 30 years of "experience" makes me the best candidate for "change". The public doesn't seem to be buying that statement.
- jupa (www.thejuniorpartner.com)
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