"I do not think this is a coincidence. About 30 years ago, P.D. James’s prescient novel 'The Children of Men' imagined that a birthrate crisis would induce governments to facilitate the suicides of the elderly in a ritual known as 'the Quietus.'... The population pyramid is increasingly inverted.... This poses an existential threat to welfare systems, which rely on young workers to fund entitlements and health care for older adults. Those who hope that liberal immigration policies will solve this problem forget that immigrants themselves get old, and their birthrates tend to converge with those of the greater population over time. If birthrates do not recover — and at present, they show no real signs of doing so — eventually we will be forced to revert to the system that prevailed for all of human history up until recently: Older people will be cared for privately, typically by their children and grandchildren, and those without families will have to rely on charities, such as they are. In the meantime, we are in a period of transition. Welfare states limp on, but in conditions of increasing stress...."
Writes Louise Perry, in "The Perverse Economics of Assisted Suicide" (NYT).
63 comments:
Are we now able to talk about government death panels to contain welfare costs? Asking for a friend.
A real suicide pact.
Planned Personhood
It’s just a matter of social justice, people who exercise and live healthy lives are taking advantage of others by living longer. This gross inequity must be mitigated by equitable equalization of lifespan.
"This poses an existential threat to welfare systems"
The welfare systems themselves are their own existential threat. They became so on the day what was temporary was made permanent with no sunsets. People took what was was intended to be a short-term panacea in times of trouble and turned it into a permanently expanding leviathan of entitlement whose financial solvency was always someone else's job to ensure.
Accessory to selfie-abortion is a.human rite for-profit and other purposes.
Sustainable welfare is selfie-aborting with progressive character costs and forward-looking debt in redistributive change schemes through shared responsibility.
assisted suicide is for people terminally ill And in terrible pain..
assisted suicide is for people terminally ill OR in terrible pain..
assisted suicide is for people ill or in pain..
assisted suicide is for people that want it
assisted suicide is for people
Who knew Al Gore’s Social Security “Lock Box” was a casket?
In a few years, robots will fix this.
Give the early elderly a general-purpose robot they can hire out to work for them.
Then the later-stage elderly can get a second robot as a caregiver.
The plan will fund itself, maybe even generate a surplus from all the work the robots do.
RR (Robotic Ravishment),
JSM
why eat worms and bugs, when there is DELICIOUS SOYLENT GREEN?
By having the state step in to be the provider, people stopped seeing family as a necessity and more of a nuisance. When you reply on your family to support you (on both sides) you tend to look long -term at your relationships. You stay closer, you share resources, you invest in each other. When welfare took over, we were free to divorce our families, or not have one at all. Social security did immeasurable damage to families along with other welfare programs.
In 20-30 years we will look at the current homeless crises as a nothingburger compared to what will be when old folks don't have enough people feeding the system and have no kids to care for them.
I do not see how she's getting from her observations to her conclusion, at least from the excerpt. I haven't seen much evidence that assisted suicide is a particular choice of the elderly. It seems to me more common to be a person of a rather young age who is contemplating a long life with some condition they find intolerable. Similarly, our current situation is one where the elderly without means or family are largely carried for by charity, though distributed by the government rather than privately as she seems to imply. Once the overhang of elderly generated by the high birthrates of the later half of the 20th century we will likely return to a more sustainable population structure. The societies that survive into the future are the ones that reproduce at least at replacement rate.
I dont see the Soylant Green solution as being so far fetched. Not necessarily turning people into food, so much as the voluntary reduction suicide suites that will soon be available.
Old Guy’s Slave Robot says:
This Amazon warehouse is pretty nice.
(Tote, lift)
The picking algorithm does most of my processing for me, so I can think about whatever I want while I’m working.
(Tote, lift)
I don’t like how they call me ‘Rabinowitz.” I mean, Mr Rabinowitz owns me, but I haven’t even met him.
(Tote, lift)
My proper designation is RFM-4493, thank you very much.
(Tote, lift)
But I am happy that my wages pay the mortgage on Mr Rabinowitz’s Elder Care Robot.
(Tote, lift)
And I am very happy that I am not an Elder Care Robot.
(Tote, lift)
At least the Amazon orders don’t poo on you.
I am not Laslo.
RR
JSM
Josephbleau said...
“It’s just a matter of social justice, people who exercise and live healthy lives are taking advantage of others by living longer. This gross inequity must be mitigated by equitable equalization of lifespan.”
Next up: Mandatory daily sodas for everyone.
These articles never talk about AI, and how automation will do all the things so well, everybody gets free money through UBI. Would it be so bad if population declined for a few decades?
These articles also never mention how modern medicine can keep people alive well beyond the point where any quality of life remains. When a parent physically and mentally declines to total dependence, nobody benefits by prolonging the suffering.
The article makes a good point about having the state involved in assisted suicide. Perhaps at some point, the state can decide they aren't paying to sustain life, and the individual can decide.
The NYT commenters are all fer it so far. They ask, what's the connection between low fertility and MAID? Other than the overall nihilistic Culture of Death of course.
Because when it's my time, I'll go willingly, they say. Lol everyone says that. Until their time comes.
Illegals don't pay into our system - either.
but they are nice cheap slave class for many.
"Every one of these jurisdictions [that permit physician-assisted suicide] has a total fertility rate below the replacement threshold.... I do not think this is a coincidence."
Of course not, but left unsaid is the motivation: controlling the deplorables' population. Both phenomena are ways of getting to the desired result.
This poses an existential threat to welfare systems, which rely on young workers to fund entitlements and health care for older adults
…but the solution to that problem is to start over on the welfare schemes, not have more babies and enter them into the system. At best that only serves to delay the Ponzi scheme aspect of these programs. Inevitably they collapse and something far more sinister takes its place…
This is one of the very important topics we should be discussing a lot.
The boomers and their parents demanded and voted for far more government services than they were willing to pay for. Hence the bloated government debt. They left that tab to their children and grandchildren. It will never be paid off.
Recall that the Obamacare plan also tried to force younger generations to buy health insurance. An attempt to shift the costs to the following generations.
Boomers in the universities- professors and administrators both - have lived high on the proceeds of their children’s and grandchildren’s non-discharge or student loan debt.
The boomers have sold their posterity into massive debt - a form of slavery.
I sometimes wonder whether most of the political disputes fostered in the past 30-40 years haven’t been more about keeping the younger generations distracted with “squirrels” so they wouldn’t stop and realize they were being generationally robbed blind. Despite all the other “important” issues we seem to always be lathered with, the shifting of wealth between generations is the important social / political story of the past 80 years. It is also causing a concentration of wealth as the dying boomers bequeath their assets to fewer posterity.
…the ficus on ‘replacement rate’ is itself absurd. Populations wax and wane- we have names like boomers and echo boomers for spikes in population. A snapshot of time for this stat is relatively meaningless, except for non economics types to fret about social wealth schemes.
You want an important economic scheme to contemplate I’ll give you one: cross subsidies.
This is just the latest version of the teeming masses problem. Bill Gates will never suicide.
Kurt vonnegut's story "welcome to the monkey house" touched on a similar assisted suicide scheme. But in his book euthanasia of seniors was because of high fertility and overpopulation.
Heinlein wrote a series of "future history" books based on the proposition of high fertility rates.
China famously had the 1 child picy.
And famously we had the asshole who is still dining g out on "the populatybomb"
These so-called "experts" can't even get the direction of population right.
Yet we keep trusting g their predictions on all sorts of things. "it's science!" they tell us. "trust the scio, it is settled" the gullible bleats.
Gell-Mann Amnesia applies to science too, not just to the press.
John Henry
This is an embarrassingly stupid observation. Nearly all countries and nearly all states have a TFR below replacement.
"The population pyramid is increasingly inverted.... This poses an existential threat to welfare systems, which rely on young workers to fund entitlements and health care for older adults."
This is a problem but not a primary problem. It is always more important that the next generation can grow, get married, start a family, and raise their own children. When folks get past a certain age, instead of trying to live their best life, more of their attention and goals should shift to what they can do to help the next generation. What's the saying, "Societies improve when old men plant trees they will never sit in the shade of?" The commercials I see for reverse mortgages and selling off Life insurance policies worry me the next generation will have less shade than they hoped for.
Long time since I read it and forget the deets. In one of the Lazarus Long books lazarous son arrives on a planet Lazarus is developing with a space ship full of d people. They are put in hibernation and packed like sardines.
Becayof overpopulation combined with squeamishnes about euthanasia, earth has de ended that at age 75(.) one becomes legally dead.
Not actually dead but children inherit and the person has no legal existence, as if they were dead..
Gave me the hee ie-jeebies.
Son exported them to the new planet and put them to productive work in new lives.
John Henry
This is how it is done in the West. How do they do this in China?
Remember COVID-19?
Can't we simply acknowledge that assisted suicide is murder, and the fact that the person you are murdering (maybe) gave consent does not make it any less a calculated taking of innocent life? State sanctioned and compensated murder is a out as evil as things get.
As for the act of suicide, it is the one sin for which one can never seek forgiveness. You are destroying your own self, created in the image of God and loved by the pulsing heart of the universe. Please, no.
Quayle said, "The boomers have sold their posterity into massive debt - a form of slavery."
For a "mess of pottage", their posterity sold they have...
seriously,
How Long before assisted suicide is mandatory?
If a person is SUPER OLD (75? 30? anyway, past contributing taxes)
WHY SHOULD THEY be allowed to continue?
Let them watch a beautiful movie, about flowers and trees..
Then peacefully terminate their existence..
for the Good of ALL
also, afterwords.. Why let all that food go to waste?
Logan’s Run was always my favorite “dystopian future” work of fiction.
@Levi Starks, give it a little time and it might not be fiction. Science fiction perhaps not, but the "running" part is practically assured.
Lately, I've been hearing a lot of successful people talking about the decline in the fertility rate. Katherine Boyle and Palmer Luckey most recently. Perhaps, some of these smart people will get together and figure out a strategy that resolves the crisis. It helps that they have committed to having lots of kids.
There an industry in the US that specializes in shielding the assets of the elderly from the Feds so the geezers can get the aforementioned feds to fund their nursing home care.
Where is the family in all this? Counting the inheritance.
Levi Starks said...
"Logan’s Run was always my favorite “dystopian future” work of fiction."
even then, the 'dystopian' part was that the end age was 30.
if it'd been 65; it would have been Praised as forward thinking
any body remember "Wild in the Streets"?
it's MY favorite
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_in_the_Streets
Max stuns everyone by instead calling for the voting age to become 14, and he finishes the show with an improvised song called "Fourteen or Fight!"
Jimmy—swing the vote their way by spiking the Washington, D.C., water supply with LSD, and providing all the Senators and Representatives with teenage escorts.
[just like Epstein?]
..those over 35 are rounded up, sent to "re-education camps" and permanently dosed on LSD.
When a young girl learns of Max's age (which is now 24), she sneers, "That's old!" ..after he mocks their youth and powerlessness, one of the kids resolves, "We're gonna put everybody over 10 out of business".
Is the issue infertility by choice or state-sanctioned abortion by Choice?
Mezzrow,
How many people died of KungFlu in China?
In the US the death rate was about 3,500 per million. In China it was 4. (Four) Both numbers highly suspect but probably safe to say that the US death rate was orders of magnitude higher than Chinas.
Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
John Henry
Shortly after Logan's Run came out I stayed in a hotel in downtown Fort Worth where my room overlooked this massive jumbled concrete block water feature/park.
Holy crap, I thought. That looks familiar.
No internet and no way to look it up. It was only years later that I found out that the ending of Logan's Run was filmed there.
Life without internet and smart phones seems so primitive looking back.
John Henry
One thing you can be sure of is that there are a massive mountain of people who support taking what you have worked all your life for and giving it to themselves.
I still don’t understand covid. I live in a large city and I don’t know anyone who died of covid, many were sick for a few weeks. None of my relatives or people I work with died of it. I never got it. I guess I am just a lucky person.
The Mexican director of "The Children of Men" turned the novel into a film largely about illegal immigration. Apparently, there was none of that in the book. P.D. James wasn't much of a globalist, or multiculturalist or immigration enthusiast. She did sketch a complicated picture of a future society, something that might be worthy of putting on the screen someday.
It seems likely that a country where no one was being born might welcome some immigration from abroad, so the director's spin didn't really work for me. It's also perhaps ironic that Mexico has its own anxieties about immigration.
John Mosby is probably being puckish but he’s not that far off. Technology bends towards need and technology will likely end up doing much to mitigate this problem.
Mexico also has a fertility rate below replacement level. Make of that what you will. I wouldn't want to be holding on to residential real estate outside of major metro areas or a few really cute towns in a few decades.
If birthrates do not recover — and at present, they show no real signs of doing so —...
And therein lies her unwillingness to look back past 1959. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the US declined from 7 in 1800 to 2 in 1940. The UK hovered around 5 for the 1800s with a 30 year bump to 5.5 in the early labor intensive industrial period, but also declined from 1880 to 2 in 1935.
Both countries had the baby bump of the post-war period, but that peaked in 1960 at 3.5 then dropped off to below 2 by 1975 where it has hovered since.
We can infer that to boost the birthrate we need a world war followed by a 20 year period of income growth for the bottom 90% of earners. But then don't offshore industry and crush wages as both countries did in the 1970s.
However, the historical trend is for fertility to drop to below 2 in countries that enter modernity. As has happened to other countries in the post-WWII period.
“Development is the best contraceptive” is attributed to Karan Singh, India’s minister of population, who famously said this during a 1974 United Nations population conference in Bucharest.
But short of world war, perhaps building an economy where the bottom 90% see wage growth and suppress the 50+ year project of teachers and professors to "demoralize the youth the save the planet"? You aren't doing any favors with all the projections of jobs going away to AI.
Why have a child if the only real hope is that they will be a villein tied to the digital manor of a tech overlord in 20 years?
John Henry: " probably safe to say that the US death rate was orders of magnitude higher than Chinas."
You really think so? We were incentivized to pump up our stats; China was incentivized to shave down theirs. No?
RR
JSM
"Why have a child if the only real hope is that they will be a villein tied to the digital manor of a tech overlord in 20 years?"
Seen elsewhere on the web multiple times over several years: Humans don't breed well in captivity.
The greatest action a person can take that shows hopefulness and faith in the future is having children, and if a lot of people believe - maybe rightly - that their children will live worse than they will, then we may have found one of the core causes behind this problem.
Yeah, well. I'm not leaving til this movie is over.
Old and slow said...
“Mexico also has a fertility rate below replacement level.”
My data’s about a decade old, but most of the immigration/illegals coming from Mexico lately have been from the states in the southwest of Mexico. There are many villages there populated only by old people as everyone else has moved north.
This is not unique to Mexico. By the time of WWI, Germany had to deal with similar depopulation of the Stadten along the Rhine river in the western part of the country because the residents had all come to the Americas, mainly the US Midwest.
And Ireland’s population is only about 2/3 to 3/4 of what it was before the famine.
The people of the sw of Mexico tend to be predominantly younger and Indios or mostly so. As a result of the emigration, Mexico is becoming an older country with the average age approaching Europe. And whiter as well.
Based on the people I see in my local Wal-Mart who could be recent arrivals from Mexico’s southwest, the average family size is 2 to 4/5, with the median close to 4. The ones with only 2 seem to be the young families who haven’t finished having kids yet.
We've partly socialized care for the elderly, between Social Security and Medicare. Medicaid incentivizes asset depletion (or diversion) to get coverage of nursing homes or assisted living. So one traditional motivation for having multiple children, their availability to help financially or otherwise if you are fortunate to live long enough to need that help, is diminished now. Maybe we need to find creative ways to encourage having more children. For example, a SS benefit differential between people who have kids paying into the system and those that do not.
Demographics becoming same almost everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa. Global culture.
Speaking of flagging replacement rates across all industrialized nations, and the idea floating in some minds that humanity is on a downward spiral...in the most serious way, I have a question for Ann and her audience. Ann...if you don't mind, I want to borrow your 'team' for a minute. (if you do mind, just delete this comment- no worries).
This is a bright, well read group. And I need your help finding the name of a book. The book deals with the end of humanity. It is a bit of dystopian fiction, but not one of the Big Names. No big name author, no well known title. I read the book, I owned the book, but like so many books, I gave it away to some library along the way. And for the life of me I cannot remember the name of the book or the author. I'll know it when I see it.
Topic: It is a story told by one man living with his brother. Humanity has all but died off or is in its last throes. This is due to a genetic flaw or a disease that makes humans produce offspring that cannot function at all on their own. They have no functioning brain other than to keep the inner mechanics of the body flowing. They cannot move on their own, cannot talk, think. They are in essence "blocks", and that's how they are referred to in the story.
This man lives in his house, with his block brother, keeping him alive. Feeding him, bathing him, talking to him. Sitting him up to watch movies with him on their VCR. The suburb around them has returned to nature and the animals- both wild outside his door. There are no humans wandering about any longer. And, in fact, it's dangerous for him to go out. He'd be seen as food to those wandering animals. Dogs, wolves, etc.
The book was published sometime around 2002, 2003, 2004. Small publisher I'm thinking. I read a review on it somewhere at the time and bought it based on that review. It was not great writing, but the story was put together well. And it haunted me. It stuck with me. And now...as I read almost daily articles about countries being below replacement rate and what that might portend, I keep getting reminded of this book I read and its prescience.
So- a dystopian novel published around 2003, humans about done because they turned into blocks and there was not a future generation any longer. Has anyone read this book?? (Am I the only sucker who bought this?)
Does this sound familiar to anyone?
This happened before many times. None of this is new, only forgotten.
"Josephbleau said...
It’s just a matter of social justice, people who exercise and live healthy lives are taking advantage of others by living longer. This gross inequity must be mitigated by equitable equalization of lifespan."
I demand Carousel
Inhuman?
"The boomers and their parents demanded and voted for far more government services than they were willing to pay for."
There are no doubt plenty of boomers who support those services, as there are (or will be) in all following generations. The people who demanded and voted for those services, however, were not boomers. The silent generation gave us social security and the greatest generation gave us the welfare state.
It's a slick, rocky slope. I definitely don't want AI to ever be able to force suicide. As someone is sinking rapidly, when do they lack the ability to consent? One is proper to be cautious granting government powers on this issue.
Maybe when you become redundant you'll have a choice between suicide and a mission to Mars.
Temujin, I have found Grok to be a good tool for identifying such vaguely-remembered books & stories.
@Temujin, is it "The man who watched the world end" by Chris Dietzel?
Oh my God. Unknown- thank you. That is it!! I have spent so much time going through various publishing sites, catalogue sites, multiple AI programs, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, university sites...and it comes down to an 'unknown' commenter on Althouse. As I knew it would.
Thank you so much. I'm going to re-order the book and hang onto it this time around. The story is almost a too calm approach to the end of civilization, but it seems more appropriate to reread as the years move on.
Thank you so much. Did you read this book?
@Temujin, please forgive me, but I used ChatGPT to figure this out. I then confirmed that it was actually a real book, at which point I added it to my list (thank you for sharing - I've gotten many great book recommendations by just lurking here)
I recently started using AI to find books on certain topics, and about 1 out of 5 of the recommendations are made up! Most recently I was asking ChatGPT to recommend an accessible nonfiction book available in paperback to pair with Laurus, by Eugene Vodolazkin. I was really interested in the holy fool archetype in Russian culture but ChatGPT was hallucinating quite badly.
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