And today is the NYC primary: "The contest has narrowed into a two-man sprint between Andrew M. Cuomo, the state’s scandal-plagued former governor, and Zohran Mamdani, an assemblyman and democratic socialist with a short track record, with a crowded field of nine rivals trailing behind. Polls suggest the outcome is a tossup" (NYT).
That's a stark choice — whether to go out at all and, if so, Cuomo or Mamdani. I would think a lot of people would find both men unappealing and, of this group, the it's-too-hot decision is highly attractive. Then there are the people who actually long for Cuomo/Mamdani. Of this group, is it the Mamdani type or the Cuomo type who stand up to the challenge of facing intense physical discomfort for their man.
I see the Cuomo group as pragmatic and the Mamdani group as passionate. Not sure how that interfaces with heat. The heat is personal, specific — about you, right now. In that light, I'll predict Cuomo prevails. But he needs to prevail with more than 50% or that "ranked-choice" voting could throw the nomination to Mamdani.
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66 comments:
The best way for NYC to learn about socialism and the progressive fascist movement is to experience it first hand.
Chicago, Seattle Portland LA and a few others are alread Learning.
Removing all of the illegals and cutting off federal funding to the people receiving benefits illegally will be the shorter term solution though.
NYC's loss is everyone else's gain. Gooderer. Betterer. Harderer. One of the world's most overrated communities.
The 3am ballot drop will occur in a nice, air-conditioned facility.
Is there mail-in balloting in this election?
or that "ranked-choice" voting could throw the nomination to Mamdani.
Witchcraft.
Original Mike said...
Is there mail-in balloting in this election?
Silly rabbit!
Fer sure. All printed out with the winners name already filled in waiting to be delivered after the voting ends.
I’m venturing out in the heat to vote for Cuomo, the saner one, i.e. the one not pushing government grocery stores and no police.
The NYT got it a bit wrong. The outcome is most certainly a tosser, not a tossup.
The angry base is fired up.
I predict the rage-filled guy will win.
Cuomo should get it. Corrupt, but less frightening.
On the other hand, the commie promising free stuff is appealing
Mamdani was an unknown outside of NY 2 weeks ago, and recent polling shows him in the lead. However, polls are more tools the persuade rather than gauge voter preference. Maybe the polls are to convince people Mamdani is close enough if he GOTV. Maybe it is to scare everyone else to get behind Cuomo. Whatever the outcome, I’m glad I am neither in NY or stuck with voting in the Democrat primary.
"I’m venturing out in the heat to vote for Cuomo, the saner one, i.e. the one not pushing government grocery stores and no police."
Is Mamdani the idiot who recently said he wants grocery stores to lose money, or was that some other idiot?
Mrs. X said...
I’m venturing out in the heat to vote for Cuomo, the saner one, i.e. the one not pushing government grocery stores and no police.
I think Cuomo wins with voters.
It the reason NY gives IDs to illegals and registers them to vote is so democrats don’t have to worry about voters.
If the machine chooses Mandani then you know that the globalists aim to try to burn it all down.
I predict that Cuomo's not going to get 50%. The city and the country are about to get a lesson on Ranked Choice voting's true meaning.
It's 'rank', the adjective, not 'rank' the noun or verb.
A Hobson's choice for any sane resident of NYC.
Who in NY votes only for the "hottest candidate"? AOC wouldn't have won in 2018 if she'd been elderly, plain, transgendered, or male.
The young left has been screaming for a party split since Occupy Wall St. and the Bernie Bros became a thing. Let them break up, as that's what happens when a political pendulum swing reverses. The other side wins for a couple generations, while old-era bad ideas die off and as new ideas develop.
The left establishment simply left ran out of ideas and people willing to take a bribe. Their last gasp was to pull near-corpse Joe Biden out of retirement in 2020. The new generation left (AOC, Hogg, Saint Greta, Mamdani) will evolve into sane folks or neo-Hitlers in the next 20 years.
Cuomo = old era Democrat in a defensive posture.
Mamdani = zealot willing to die for...ideas proven to be failures many times in the 20th century but that he himself hasn't tried...and his ego demands that he try 'em again...
It would've been useful for the article to lean into each candidate's positions, as I'm sure I wasn't the only one unfamiliar with Mamdani.
Scanning quickly, he supports free bus fare, free baby baskets, free childcare, rent caps, and $65m towards the city providing 'gender affirming care'.
Good that the Democrats are seeing more young energy, just a shame it's the exact brand of democratic party that'll doom the party to national failure.
“I see the Cuomo group as pragmatic and the Mamdani group as passionate.”
The pragmatic thing to do is to stay home. Always. No election is ever decided by one vote. They can’t even count that accurately—every time they do a recount the totals change.
Everything is free ... the tax payers are tapped out, and the city and state coffers are bare.
how did that happen?
What do you predict when the other side shows up with rocks bottles and knives? Asking for a friend.
Democrat Party members torn between voting for the mass murderer or the Muslim terrorist.
I don't think it's a toss-up. I think Mamdani will lose handily. One of the reasons is that Mamdani's supporters are the kind of people who are less likely to show up and vote. 100 degree heat will exaggerate that already existing tendency.
I also think that Cuomo is merely personally distasteful while Mamdani is scary, so Cuomo's supporters and even a lot of "a pox on both your houses" types will turn out for Cuomo.
I did my civic duty and voted for Cuomo. We survived eight years of De Blasio. If worse comes to worse, maybe we can endure Mamdani. He's more likable than DeBlasio. Younger too......There's a candidate called Paperboy Love Prince running. I ranked him #2 to show my disdain for the system. I bet he gets a lot of ranked votes just because of his name.....This election also offered a chance to vote against Alvin Bragg. He'll probably win though. Unlike Mamdani Bragg's not young and personable. He's fat and obnoxious.
Smilin' Jack: "The pragmatic thing to do is to stay home." You're probably right but out I go. I kept my democrat party registration just so I could vote in the primaries, where all the action is in New York.
Michael Fitzgerald: "Democrat Party members torn between voting for the mass murderer or the Muslim terrorist."
And, in the clown world we inhabit, the mass murderer is less frightening.
I know a girl in New York City aint voting for the sexist pig cause he needs to learn a lesson. Or something.
Eric Adams - the media and the corrupt democrat party sure did make him vanish.
One hot second after Eric Adams complained about Biden's Illegals overwhelming the city - he was smothered and destroyed by the corrupt leftist mob.
"Passionate" = Crazy
The white left in NYC sure are racist. I include mad-mani in that pot of soup.
Cuomo was forced out as governor - how is able to claw his way back? My guess is backroom groveling/ring kissing to the mob.
no mention of former Mayor Eric Adams. anywhere.
Biden won. Didn't matter.
David Hogg won. Didn't matter.
Cuomo will lose.
Won't matter. Cuomo will be the candidate.
My guess is backroom groveling/ring kissing to the mob.
Cuomo IS the mob.
I'm not so sure Cuomo will take this. It seems to me he thought he could coast to the nomination and was caught by surprise, without any kind of energetic response to Mamdani's surge in support. The bigger problem is that the Republicans thought that too, and didn't bother to field a credible candidate. And yes, if Mamdani wins, I think a credible, charismatic, moderate, law-and-order Republican could beat him. Curtis Sliwa lacks at least the "credible" part. Maybe the Republicans could pull a Kamala/Biden move and replace Sliwa if Mamdani wins. I don't know who that would be, maybe Malliotakis (the Staten Island member of the House).
"If you want to know which party rules over your city, just look at which the one party ranked choice voting never provides a chance to."
- Curtis Sliwa, (R) Candidate for Mayor, NYC
Adams is not on the Democratic Party primary ballot, but I think he'll be on the November ballot. if Cuomo loses and withdraws, Adams might win in November. He's a better choice than Mandami.......I'm glad that someone with the policies of Bella Abzug looks like AOC. It's more bearable that way. Alvin Bragg is both hideous in his policies and in his outward appearance. If Mamdami loses, I hope that in the future he runs against Nadler or Bragg or some other NYC eyesore.
For what it's worth, predictit.org has Mamdani at about 54-46. Those are probabilities, not vote percentages.
This primary is entirely meaningless.
Both Cuomo and Mandami are candidates from other parties for the general election, which means neither one will be eliminated by this vote. It's the general election that matters, and that's NOT under RCV.
The most screwed up part about NYC voting is that you can run under multiple Parties in the GE. You should only get one bite at the apple. The rule should be, always and everywhere:
If you run in a primary you can't run as an "independent" in the GE, and you can only run in one primary
That they've f*cked that up makes the rest a joke
Adams will be on the GE ballot, as will Cuomo, Mandami, Curtis Sliwa (founder of the Guardian Angels), and some others
I think ranked choice is more likely to help Cuomo than Mandami. The voters who don’t have the passion for Mandami and lack the enthusiasm to rank Cuomo first may still give Cuomo second, third, fourth, or fifth place votes.
That’s the idea of ranked choice, let the voters pick their passion from the heart as their first choice and then the boring candidate that they know in their head they will have to settle for.
“Polls suggest the outcome is a tossup" (NYT).
Yeah… as in tossup your lunch.
Today's election is pretty meaningless- the winner only gets the Democrat slot on the general election ballot- all of the serious candiates (those above 10% poll support) will still be on general election ballot under minor party lines.
With that out of the way, the heat will greatly favor candidates whose support is on average younger.
I’m surprised no one has started calling him Mamzer Mamdani yet.
Adams is running? I did not know.
The 2021 primary was ranked voting. Go look at the wikipedia. It shows the insanity of "ranked Choice". In round one, Adams had 30 percent. The next two had 21 and 20 percent. With a mess of other candidates splitting the remaining 29 percent.
Somehow after 9 rounds, Adams won over Mr. 21 percent by 50.4 to 49.6 percent. I challenge anyone to tell me how this reflected the will of the voters. Or how you get from 69 percent not voting for Adams in the 1st round to him barely winning. Its crazy. Its not transparent. The nexus between who won and the votes is unclear. And the opporturnity for fraud in counting the votes is the usual x10.
All those who lost let Adams have a clear shot in the GE. What evidence is there that Mandani will run in the GE even if he loses the D primary?
BTW, my vote would be for Mandani.
Mamdani wants to cap rent increases, strengthen tenant protections, and create a Social Housing Development Agency that would build publicly owned affordable housing. Mamdani wants to build 200,000 new units of affordable, rent-stabilized homes over the next 10 years and double the amount of spending to rehabilitate homes for the city's 400,000 public housing tenants.
Looks like he's looking out for the poor and working class in NYC.
I see that Rcocean is not just a moron when it comes to Israel.
Only if you think rent control, public housing, etc. actually helps the poor. The track record on that says the opposite. As with his position on defunding the police. And then there's all the free this, free that, to be funded by raising taxes on the rich, who will hasten their departure from the city. Where does that leave the poor?
Ranked Choice Voting is where you take a democratic process and turn it into a popularity contest, leaving plenty of room for the mean girls in the party to decide who's popular - and who isn't. I'm convinced that each round of voting facilitates another layer of voter fraud being applied. The only reason it would be hawked as a solution for voters, is that it provides an advantage to those needing a legitimized distraction.
Mamaluca Mandami's leftist core may turn out to vote, but how many young voters with fashionable progressive views are that hardcore? How many Brooklyn influencers are going to wait in long lines in the heat? Older voters usually turn out more reliably. Given the problems older people have with the heat, the very old may stay home, but surely there must be enough sane adults in the outer boroughs to offset the progressive hipsters.
Cuomo at least has some experience running things. Mandami doesn't. Like Buttigieg, like Biden, like John Lindsay many years ago, he may turn out to be an empty suit. If you're unfortunate enough to think of his platform as a good one, don't expect him to actually succeed in implementing it.
Remember when the slogan, "Vote for the Crook: It's Important" actually told you who to vote for?
“Mamdani wants to cap rent increases, strengthen tenant protections, and create a Social Housing Development Agency that would build publicly owned affordable housing.”
Good idea. Maybe he can get the plans for Cabrini-Green from Chicago. Didn’t do much for the poor, but it looked really cool when they blew it up.
RCOCEAN II said...
Looks like he's looking out for the poor and working class in NYC.
6/24/25, 2:01 PM
You want to vote for Mamdani because he cares about the New York working class. I want to vote for Mamdani because I want the wealthy Manhattanites who backed Kamala Harris to suffer horribly. We are not the same.
Who votes when it is incredibly hot? The dead, the comatose in nursing homes, ....
A problem with ranked choice voting (probably not the only one) is that when there are e.g. three candidates, someone could garner (heh!) say 40% of the vote, with two others getting 35% and 25%. Once the 25% candidate is eliminated, it is possible that, say, 15% of his/her voters did not select a second choice, 8% picked Mr. 35 as the second choice, and 2% picked Mr. 40. This would result in Mr. 35 winning, as he would now have more votes than Mr. 40, despite him only getting (in the second round, no less), 43% of the overall vote vote, which does not meet the 50% threshold. How does this happen? They simply disenfranchise the 15% who did not make a second choice.
I think a better solution, if ranked choice is to be done, would be to have a "none of the rest" option, and if no one can get to 50% of all votes cast, including the "none of the rest" voters, it goes to a run-off.
The only non-evil choice is Sliwa. He's been around long enough to know how to get things done. His Guardian Angels group was majority-minority and pulled different racial and ethnic groups together throughout the city, despite some mild anti-white posturing that he has abandoned. He hates Trump, a prerequisite for any NYC race, though his policy positions closely align with Trump's. He has saved the lives of countless people and helped turn the city around, while giving young women and men purpose to fight crime.
But New Yorkers will choose one flavor of fascism or another.
"They are a better expression of morality than our city deserves." -- MARIO Cuomo, 1981, speaking of Sliwa's Guardian Angels
Left Bank of the Charles said...
I think ranked choice is more likely to help Cuomo than Mandami.
Well, apparently you're not paying attention to any of the polling, which has Cuomo in the lead up until the last round of RCV, where the vote goes down to the granny killer vs the socialist lunatic, and the NYC voters, once they can only vote for 1 lunatic, finally push Mamdani ahead of Cuomo.
But thank you for playing.
The RCV ballots won't be processed until July 1, so we won't actually know until then
I have never faulted the concept of political contests being decided by runoff elections. So, why are they so anathema to party hacks that want to see 'ranked choice". Things that make you wonder. A runoff presents a different set of considerations under a fixed set of easily-understood rules. Ranked Choice provides permutations that are not clear at all, and potential for outcomes that are easily not what was wanted by the democratic voter.
Enigma said..."Mamdani = zealot willing to die for...ideas proven to be failures many times in the 20th century but that he himself hasn't tried...and his ego demands that he try 'em again..."
I recall an old lecture by Jordan Peterson where he mocked the arrogance of young socialists who think that they somehow are better or smarter than Mao and Stalin, so when they try to implement their ideas, the outcome will somehow be different. Great stuff.
“Arrow's impossibility theorem is a key result in social choice theory showing that no ranked-choice procedure for group decision-making can satisfy the requirements of rational choice.[1] Specifically, Arrow showed no such rule can satisfy the independence of irrelevant alternatives axiom. This is the principle that a choice between two alternatives A and B should not depend on the quality of some third, unrelated option, C.[2][3][4]”
Details and proof in Wikipedia.
Goodness.
The Chicago Tribune is telling NYC voters that socialist teacher union fraud grifter Brandon Johnson has fucked up Chicago so bad, that they should not vote for Mamdami since he will be twice as bad. Even the corrupt and dishonest NYT wants nothing to do with the socalist islamist.
Let's go Brand-oh wait.
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