Althouse: "Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are 'no longer operational' after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said..."

June 26, 2025

"Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are 'no longer operational' after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said..."

"... on French radio on Thursday. Inspectors from the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, have been unable to gain access to the nuclear sites since the strikes. Mr. Grossi told Radio France Internationale in an interview that while evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite images alone is difficult, given the power of the bombs dropped on Fordo and the technical characteristics of the plant 'we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational.'... In the interview... Mr. Grossi declined to say how far Iran’s nuclear program had been set back by the strikes. 'Perhaps decades, depending on the type of activity or objective,' he said, echoing comments made by Mr. Trump this week at a NATO summit in the Netherlands...."

From "Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says/Rafael Grossi told French radio that there was 'no escaping significant physical damage'” after Washington dropped bunker-buster bombs on the Iranian facility" (NYT).

40 comments:

Achilles said...: I was reliably told by the New York Times, CNN and Democrats this is not true. It’s not as if CNN New York Times and democrats have been caught lying About everything for the last 10 years.; 6/26/25, 10:39 AM
n.n said...: With American funding cut, with its nuclear program aborted and sequestered, no longer a viable choice, Iran may feel less emboldened to back Hamas, Houthi, and other terrorist blocs in the Middle East.; 6/26/25, 10:39 AM
WisRich said...: From the NYT? Who just two days ago said there was minimal damage? My oh my.; 6/26/25, 10:41 AM
n.n said...: New York Times et al don't lie per se, they are ideologically prone to publish handmade tales that progress special and peculiar interests. Alls fair in lust and abortion.; 6/26/25, 10:42 AM
narciso said...: they do not but lie, they are the Devil's Mouthpiece, well one of the loudest, they stand against the Iranian people, like when they enabled Khomeinis coup nearly 50 years ago,; 6/26/25, 10:44 AM
narciso said...: as I pointed out with Sanger, of course we can go back to Sy Hersh, who fanned all sorts of lies, about the Shah's regime in the 70s, the fact he might have gotten some things right in the next 30 years doesn't make it so,; 6/26/25, 10:51 AM
JAORE said...: What a sad result from the bunker busters. Listening to CNN and MSNBC I learned that Iran would have a bomb somewhere between years from now to never,
Now the bunker busting must have accelerated the Iranian bomb efforts because the timeline for a bomb is only months away...; 6/26/25, 10:51 AM
gilbar said...: "With American funding cut.."

it's interesting.
Who provided the F-14s for the Iranian Air Force? US!
Who provided the missiles that destroyed the F-14s? US!
Who provided the money for the Iranian Nuke program? US!
Who destroyed* the Iranian Nuke program? US!

Sometimes, it seems like;
instead of fighting with one hand tied behind our back..
we're fighting BOTH sides of these wars (ALL these wars)

destroyed* obliterated? decimated? disintegrated? ground up into dust? buried? shoveled dirt over? set back? demoralized? made very unhappy?; 6/26/25, 10:53 AM
narciso said...: thats often so, with many of these so called uprisings, when the Saudi regime falls, not if, we will face this problem

they were waiting for maverick to fly off with the tomcats,; 6/26/25, 10:55 AM
Aggie said...: I, for one, would be happy to see the bombing raids continue against strictly strategic targets, until the Legacy Media says 'that's enough, now', or Iran does. Because, strictly speaking, that's what it's going to take.; 6/26/25, 11:01 AM
hawkeyedjb said...: OK then. Let’s mark Fordow as “fiery and mostly peaceful.”; 6/26/25, 11:02 AM
Lance said...: "while evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite images alone is difficult, given the power of the bombs dropped on Fordo and the technical characteristics of the plant 'we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational.'"

He's guessing. He doesn't know.

What if he's deliberately trying to fool the U.S. and Israel into believing the centrifuges have been destroyed, even though they might not be? Wouldn't that help Iran?; 6/26/25, 11:25 AM
Peachypeachy said...: cNN and all democrat party liars. F u .; 6/26/25, 11:42 AM
Peachypeachy said...: Pete Hagseth hammederd the Russian Russian maddow media this am. Glorious.; 6/26/25, 11:56 AM
Peachypeachy said...: Pete Hagseth hammederd the Russian Russian maddow media this am. Glorious.; 6/26/25, 11:56 AM
Creola Soul said...: IAEA is somewhat limited in where they can inspect. It’s usually where the host’s countries allow by saying “here’s where our facilities are “, not where IAEA goes searching for them. It’s like the drunk looking for his lost car keys under the street lights. “Where did you lose your keys? Over there. But why are you looking here? The lights better here.”
I expect the best intelligence will be from Mossad, they had these sites under surveillance for years.; 6/26/25, 12:05 PM
Smilin' Jack said...: I remember when the Israelis planted a virus in the computers controlling the centrifuges that made them spin out of control and explode. But I guess the mullahs learned from that and installed some McAfree, so we had to go back to the old fashioned way.; 6/26/25, 12:19 PM
Skeptical Voter said...: Well it would be nice if say Israeli inspectors were permitted to go down into the Fordow centrifuge halls and verify all this. Of course the entrances might be blocked by two or three hundred feet of dirt. I'd certainly trust the Israeli inspectors more than say folks from the US Defense Intelligence Agency who leaked the "low damage" report.; 6/26/25, 12:27 PM
Kakistocracy said...: Early intelligence suggests Iran’s uranium largely intact, European officials say ~ FT

Preliminary assessments indicate Tehran was able to move much of its stockpile

/"Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said.

The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack.

It had been distributed to various other locations, the assessments found. Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched ...was not concentrated in Fordow at the time of US attack.

The findings call into question US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the bombing had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

In an apparent reference to Fordow, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Thursday: “Nothing was taken out of [the] facility. Would take too long, too dangerous, and very heavy and hard to move!”/

I'll give him this: Trump has a keen sense for the vulnerabilities of his propaganda.

"The cars and small trucks at the site were those of concrete workers trying to cover up the top of the shafts. Nothing was taken out of facility. Would take too long, too dangerous, and very heavy and hard to move!" ~ Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump; 6/26/25, 1:11 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/26/25, 1:12 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I don't understand this. The inspectors have NOT - i repeat not - been let in, but this guy says the centrifuges are no longer operational "given the damage". OK so what? I have no idea if this opinion based on photos is right or not.

Further, he refuses to say how much delay that will cause the nuclear program. IOW, its a typically worthless MSM- NYT's article. No need to fact check, because there aren't any facts. Just speculation.; 6/26/25, 1:13 PM
Rusty said...: Skeptical Voter said...
"Well it would be nice if say Israeli inspectors were permitted to go down into the Fordow centrifuge halls and verify all this. "

I seriously doubt those halls exist anymore.
One of the news sources I found on "Instapundit" claimed that Mossad was on site within hours of the explosions. There is no more access to those centrifuges.; 6/26/25, 1:15 PM
Rusty said...: Just for shits and giggles lets try and imagine what 5300 pounds of explosives would do if it just exploded inside the vent. Even if that vent tunnel took some twists and turns.; 6/26/25, 1:17 PM
Kakistocracy said...: "The Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or GBU-57. likely created a powerful shockwave in the rock that would have traveled deep underground, rattling the facility below.

But those shockwaves weaken quickly as they move into the rock. Fordo's position directly under the ridge of the mountain probably maximized that protection.

In fact, going deeper is a simple solution to the threat of bunker-busters. A major conclusion from the 2005 study* was that "it's cheaper and easier for someone to dig deeper than it is to penetrate through that depth."

* Iran’s secretive nuclear site that only a US bomb could hit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-868e3c3d-25ec-43cb-bcc0-8832464b91ca

Penetration Equations
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/562498

Effects of Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11282/effects-of-nuclear-earth-penetrator-and-other-weapons

DTRA websitehttps://web.archive.org/web/20090223084920/http://www.dtra.mil/newsservices/fact_sheets/display.cfm?fs=mop

Geology, it turns out, may have foiled one of the most audacious American air operations in recent memory.; 6/26/25, 1:44 PM
Hassayamper said...: Sometimes, it seems like;
instead of fighting with one hand tied behind our back..
we're fighting BOTH sides of these wars (ALL these wars)

Of course. Huge profits accrue to cronies of the government when wars go on forever. I'll bet that shipwrights, swordsmiths, armorers, saddlers, bowyers, arrowsmiths, fletchers, wainwrights, sutlers, and chandlers prospered mightily in both England and France during the Hundred Years War.; 6/26/25, 1:49 PM
Howard said...: In the early 90s, I got a call from a college friend working on the design of a deep penetration bunker Buster. I was the only geologist he had a phone number for.

I told him they needed detailed seismic prior to final targeting. Things like cavity depth, tunnels, rock density, geologic structures. I told him they needed to deploy an array of geophones (jugs) then precisely place an array of bombs to create a saturation of seismic waves. Mossad probably had operatives whom placed the jugs.

To do this I recommended that they hook up with an oil company to figure out the particulars. If you think geologic conditions weren't evaluated in some details, than you don't understand either engineering or hot rodding.

No wonder it took 35-years.; 6/26/25, 2:30 PM
tommyesq said...: Just for shits and giggles lets try and imagine what 5300 pounds of explosives would do if it just exploded inside the vent.

Worked on the Death Star...; 6/26/25, 2:50 PM
narciso said...: I think they found the thermal exhaust vent,; 6/26/25, 3:11 PM
Fred Drinkwater said...: My own useless opinion is that the centrifuges are dead or OOS for years. And that we civilians can never know for sure. Also, the location of the mostly-enriched uranium is unknown.

I think Trump should have reacted to the MSM reports of limited damage with another round of bombs, with the implication that he/we can keep going until we get consensus.; 6/26/25, 4:31 PM
narciso said...: except after the first round of bombs, they know to expect you, this was the point in top gun maverick, why they had a short window on target, before interception,; 6/26/25, 5:20 PM
Leland said...: Tell me you don't know physics without telling me "I don't know physics": But those shockwaves weaken quickly as they move into the rock.; 6/26/25, 5:42 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: The only thing we know for sure is that Obama/Biden cash payoffs and fake agreements were totally ineffective.; 6/26/25, 5:48 PM
Tomcc said...: I'm confident that their processing facilities were pretty severely damaged. It's also possible that they moved some of the material out of those facilities prior to the bombing. (I have no idea how that is done, but I don't think you throw it in the trunk of a car. And larger vehicles should be more easily tracked, no?) My simplistic analogy is that they got some food out of the refrigerator but now have no place to cook.; 6/26/25, 6:51 PM
Jamie said...: Howard! I didn't know you were a geologist!

Know why we women geologists are bad at estimating size in the field? Because we've been told all our lives that THIIIS is eight inches!; 6/26/25, 7:05 PM
boatbuilder said...: That Rafael Grosso guy is obviously a MAGA hack, in the bag for Trump.; 6/26/25, 7:24 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: Photos today, supposedly from Fordow, showing lines of centrifuges toppled and destroyed. We shall see.; 6/26/25, 9:49 PM
Paddy O said...: This all really is a kind of quantum puzzle. Whether Fordow was destroyed or not is variable depending on who a person voted for in the 2024 election. Some scientists need to study this strange phenomenon; 6/26/25, 10:56 PM
Moondawggie said...: Kak sez "But those shockwaves weaken quickly as they move into the rock." Sure, Kak, that's why earthquakes limit damage to only 1 or 2 houses when they hit here in California.; 6/26/25, 11:06 PM
gadfly said...: Rafael Grossi has no knowledge of the damage that bunker-busters can do when dropped into a ventillation shaft in order to penetrate and blow up stuff buried 350 foot below ground under rock. He has a degree from the University of Argentina majoring in political science. He has no background in physics and he has not been at Fordo for even a look into the basement.; 6/27/25, 12:10 AM
Achilles said...: Kakistocracy said...

But those shockwaves weaken quickly as they move into the rock. Fordo's position directly under the ridge of the mountain probably maximized that protection.

Probably is doing a lot of work here.

A lot of work showing how ignorant Rich is... again.

Just for fun because I don't want to type it all out grok summarized things for me:

Shockwave Propagation in Fordow’s Geology
Rock Properties:
Limestone and Dolomite: These sedimentary rocks are dense and relatively strong, with high compressive strength (50-200 MPa for limestone, higher for dolomite). They have moderate to high elastic moduli, meaning they can transmit shockwaves efficiently due to their rigidity. However, they are brittle and can fracture under intense stress, especially if faulted, as the Zagros region is tectonically active with faults and folds.

Diorite (if present): This igneous rock is even denser (2.8-3.0 g/cm³) and stronger (compressive strength ~150-300 MPa), with lower porosity than limestone. It would transmit shockwaves very effectively due to its crystalline structure, with minimal energy dissipation.

Bonus question Rich: Why does SONAR RF in water travel farther than RADAR RF in air at the same energy levels?

You are just stupid and you post as if you know things. Just stop.; 6/27/25, 8:59 AM