"My prediction: It's not gonna happen.... President Trump is talking about it. He loves to talk about things like this. He loves to throw out ideas sometimes — by the way he's very very serious, he's very serious about Greenland.... One thing about Donald Trump — may you live in interesting times — he is the most interesting President we've had in a long time. He shakes everything up. He pushes the envelope in every possible way.... I think we're okay as a country, and we're not in a constitutional crisis...."
April 1, 2025
"Would the American public stand for [Trump using a tricky path to a third term]?"
"It would obviously be an attempt to technically circumvent the prohibitions of the 22nd Amendment. But you know that's what lawyers do all the time. Democrats and Republicans. You always try to find loopholes in in the law. Religious authorities do that. Secular authorities do that. Certainly, constitutional lawyers do that all the time. For example, when the Supreme Court was about to write its decision saying you couldn't use race-specific affirmative action to give benefit to black applicants over white applicants, Larry Tribe issued a bunch of tweets and stuff figuring out how to circumvent that, how to get around that.... Would the American public stand for it if they felt that, yeah, we'd like Trump, yeah, we'd vote for him, we think he's probably the best president, but you know the framers of the 22nd amendment, when they said you can't be elected to the third term, I think they really meant you can't serve the third term but they didn't say it but they didn't say it um so it depends what is is and it depends what elect it is, and these are very very technical arguments but, hey, I'm a constitutional lawyer, I'm a law professor.... "
Posts
79 comments:
Damned stupid argument to be having.
Like I wrote the other day, it is possible but it simply won't happen. Not only will Trump not even try to do it, but there isn't a politician alive who would run for President, win, and then immediately resign to give the office to someone else. It was an epic troll by Trump and the usual suspects bit on it hard.
Trump is just jerking people around. Not serious.
And the people who wrote the 22nd amendment knew exactly what they were doing when they put in "elected" rather than "serve".
His opponents can't not react. He is taking advantage of that to make them dance at his whim. Not a kind way to be, but it seems to be his way.
so remember the plan?
Biden resigns
Harris becomes President
She picks O'Bama to be appointed Vice President
Then Harris resigns
Remember? Remember how it was cool when the Democrats were going to do it? I do.
I admit I have not followed all the conjectures about this topic, because I think it is is too unserious to devote much time to. But if it were to happen, my theory is Melania would run. Then upon her inauguration she could stay in office with Donald as the "de facto" prez. (This was exactly how George Wallace evaded term limits.)
No. Next question.
Trump benefits from the threat of a third term in not being a lame duck with no future, when he negotiates. Unlikely he's actually interested in a third term.
Remember? Remember how it was cool when the Democrats were going to do it? I do.
I remember a bunch of Trump supporters claiming, with zero evidence, that this was the plan. Just because monkeys flying out of your butt tell you this is the plan doesn't make it true.
I also remember that Michelle Obama was waiting in the wings to be named the nominee. That was bullshit too.
my theory is Melania would run. Then upon her inauguration she could stay in office with Donald as the "de facto" prez.
You do realize Melania, because she is a naturalized citizen (who probably was issued her green card illegally), is not eligible to run for president.
Good thing you didn't give it much thought.
Trump is trolling. Get over it folks.
Hasn't Obama already done this for all intents and purposes? I'm against it in any case, and I do not expect Trump to try anything tricky. He's too old.
Yeah, Obama served a third term. Joe was his proxy. Let's try Barack for some federal crime.
There is no Constitutional scenario where Trump can become the 49th President.
Per the 12th Amendment one must be eligible to be elected President in order to be elected VP.
@Freder: Doh! You're right, I forgot Melania ain't eligible. Thanks for the correction. I change my theory to, um, Stormy Daniels maybe. She was born in Louisiana.
Trump didn't bring it up. Somebody asked him. So he took the opportunity to tease a new distraction. The most powerful man in the world needs to have a little fun with those who are asking to be toyed with. Wasn't this that Oval Office event that had Kid Rock standing next to him in sunglasses and a gaudily embroidered jacket?
He is serious this time. Will use 3rd term to end social security, medicare, and elections. Will install his family members as heirs to the throne.
Will have Musks posse identify Democrats so they can be put into work camps. Will "reassign " troublesome judges.
Will nuke China before they nuke us.
That's just for starters.
Gleason: “ I change my theory to, um, Stormy Daniels maybe.”
Yes, she is used to getting paid to give it up.
JSM
Constitutional expert Jonathan Turley explained it best, Trump likes to hand his opponents the old gag gift “Snake in a Can”.
Freder,
Many of us knew Michelle was not going to run.
It's you leftists who wanted her to run.
We on the right are grateful Michelle isn't/wasn't interested. Because she would probably win.
@Althouse, a short answer to your long question, from a hard ore Trump supporter …
NO
Read up on the lies told and actions taken by the Biden administration vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine.
The Democrats must not be allowed to regain ANY political power if we want to avoid WWIII. Sons of bitches.
More seriously, this is just Overton window widening, to make it acceptable to talk about post-47 Trump as an eminence grise.
MAGA is still very much associated with Trump. There is a real danger that it may fall apart without him at the top of the ticket.
One way to avoid that outcome is to assure Trumpers that he will still have a big role in the party.
He might to better by pulling a JQ Adams and running for the House, then going beyond JQ to get elected Soeaker in the normal way. Then he doesn’t need 48, whoever that is, or the VP, to resign. He can stay right on the Hill and be the de facto prime minister, cranking out MAGA laws, running MAGA committees, etc.
JSM
Longer answer. Trump has almost 1400 days to prove that Trumpism will survive his retirement. I hope he’s working on it.
https://www.racket.news/p/biden-lied-about-everything-including?r=5mz1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
“Sourced to tone-deaf "U.S. officials," a massive New York Times exposé reveals an unprecedented betrayal of American voters, but also Ukraine”
What if he identified as an apple? Would people have the audacity to deadname him? # OrangePhobia
Trump faces a simple political problem: tariffs will bring immediate economic pain, while the benefits—long-term economic restructuring—will take years. Trump bets voters will endure the hardship, but Americans aren’t known for patience and may vote them out instead.
I assume Trump won’t run again, despite hints otherwise. The key question for the GOP is: will voters see enough economic gains—manufacturing restructuring, onshoring, new plants—before the midterms?
Big Mike said...
Longer answer. Trump has almost 1400 days to prove that Trumpism will survive his retirement. I hope he’s working on it.
4/1/25, 9:48 AM
———————————
Implementing obsolete 19th century economic theories will guarantee that Trumpism will not last a year.
The number one threat to Trump is price increases. He promised that he would address this. Implementing policies that are certain to increase prices will not end well.
Her is a news flash - RFK Jr. has convinced Trump to get behind a plan to treat illnesses with leeches and bleeding.
More distracting drama helping the blitzkrieg go underground. It's three Ring circuses all the way down.
Trump could just have one of his children run. Not much different than Bill having Hillary run or Obama having Joe or Michelle run. It is what that former CIA guy, George Bush, did to get three terms.
We just endured 4 years of complete and total hardship - under crook joe and his puppet masters/lying hack Soviet media - and their economic wrecking ball for power.
Short answer No!!!! We saw what Obama's third term with Biden looked like. Still Trump keeps on truckin' and trollin'. He's having a grand time this term around.
I’ve been reading Stephen Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System,” a detailed look at the long-term strategy behind Trump’s tariffs, written while he chairs the Council of Economic Advisers. The plan is cohesive: tariffs aim to drive U.S. re-industrialization. Success hinges on two steps, per Miran’s Mar-a-Lago essays: first, achieving that industrial revival; second, countering the dollar’s rise and inflation—effects even Trump’s advisors acknowledge—through tools like capital flow taxes, sovereign wealth funds, or boosted oil production.
Markets and experts agree: short-term pain for U.S. assets (except perhaps Treasuries) is certain. If the strategy fails, this pain could stretch into the medium term, risking a global depression like the 1930s, given today’s geopolitical tensions and debt levels. If it succeeds, the U.S. economy could rebound and restructure fundamentally, potentially striking deals that reshape global alliances into Cold War-style spheres of influence, fostering relative peace.
In that scenario, the U.S. would dominate the Western Hemisphere long-term, plus the Middle East and Southeast Asia short-term—until TSMC relocates its strategic chip production. A Taiwan deal resembling Hong Kong’s could follow. In the Middle East, Russia might back U.S. plans (sidelining Iran) in exchange for U.S. support for a Russia-favorable Ukraine resolution. Europe would fend for itself, save for a U.S. nuclear umbrella and limited material and intelligence aid.
It's you leftists who wanted her to run.
It was certainly not this leftist, nor any other leftist I know, who wanted her to run. It was a fever dream cooked up by the right.
Trump could just have one of his children run.
@Leland, yes! Let’s run Trump’s daughter Ivanka. First female President and first Jewish President at the same time!
But I’ll be voting for JD Vance in the 2028 primary, unless I’ve passed away in the interim, in which case I’ll be voting in the Democrat primary.
AMDG,
You might want to read the 12th Amendment. The pertinent sentence is:
But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
Nothing about being eligible to be elected. Just eligible to serve.
John Henry
Big Mike, that’s part of my point.
The other part is the establishment folks that are having vapors about this why they’ve been trying to circumvent the 22nd Amendment for the past three decades (and were successful in the case of George HW Bush and Barack Obama).
Another epic troll this morning. President Trump announced that the newest Ford Class aircraft carrier will be named USS Musk. It is currently under construction, expected to be commissioned in 28. It is currently named named USS Enterprise, a good and famous name. It will be the 3rd carrier of the name.
When I saw that in Insty, I assumed it was Babylon Bee. But nope. It is Navalnews.com, a legit site, afaik.
They reported it straight but I wonder if the president has the power to name ships. I think Congress has to sign off.
I do think it is a wonderful troll, though. Assuming that is what it is.
Off to BlueSky to see what kind of shit I can stir up with this.
John Henry
Trump’s trade/tariff vision is audacious, bordering on reckless. The team seems to lack a risk manager to temper the gambles or plan for downsides—beyond consolidating power. If they succeed and maintain control, it could be the most transformative shift in the world order in our lifetimes.
If they don’t, and they lose control of their own economy and democracy or lose their power over those they are attempting to negotiate with, it’s scary to think of the consequences.
I think this is just a troll. Trump will be 82. I’m 83. I’m not demented, but I’m also not close to what I was even at 60. My votes are always to escape Democrat destroyers, but I can’t see myself voting for an 82 year-old.
As much as I love Trump, I do not want him to engage in such chicanery, and I don't think he will. He's just waving a laser pointer for the cats of the Democrat Party to chase.
Check the date, John Henry.
@AMDG: There is no Constitutional scenario where Trump can become the 49th President.
Yes there is. He runs for Congress and wins, and is elected Speaker of the House, then the newly elected Vice President resigns, then the elected President resigns before appointing a new Vice President.
But it is correct that the 12th Amendment precludes him running for VP.
Trump likes to say things that throw the media and his opponents (I know, same-same) into a tizzy. The reaction is so predictable, he might as well say outlandish things to stoke it up and keep it going. It's like watching a Manx cat chase its tail.
Thanks, Hassyamper. Now you make me feel really stupid. I'm going back to bed and pull the covers over my head.
John Henry
Trump benefits from the threat of a third term in not being a lame duck with no future, when he negotiates. Unlikely he's actually interested in a third term.
That pretty much nails it. The rest of the talk is just blather.
Of course there’s a way for Trump to serve a third term. With a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate and ratification by 38 of the 50 states, Trump may serve as many terms as he wishes. A Constitutional amendment should be a piece of cake for the greatest president in American history.
One skanky lawyer’s crazy loophole is another skanky lawyer’s novel legal argument…
"Per the 12th Amendment one must be eligible to be elected President in order to be elected VP."
A question Dershowitz explores in another context but doesn't bring back to the 12th Amendment — which had me yelling at the screen — is what does "eligible" mean?
Just push the interpretation that "eligible" means what Article II sets up as the requirements: natural born citizen and at least 35 years old.
The presumption should go against finding more requirements and in favor of democracy. Let the people choose who they want.
I'd mine Powell v. McCormack and Term Limits v. Thornton for ideas.
Those cases quote Hamilton:
"[T]he true principle of a republic is that the people should choose whom they please to govern them. Representation is imperfect in proportion as the current of popular favor is checked. This great source of free government, popular election, should be perfectly pure, and the most unbounded liberty allowed."
Use a presumption in favor of democratic choice to narrowly interpret "eligible."
What we should collectively reject is when skanky lawyers believe things like alternative electors and other stuff the founders believed was important to add is just flowery language and ‘we just don’t do that’ becomes a legal argument we’re expected to respect…
Why not Can Trump appoint himself judge on district court and rule by TRO
Wasn't this that Oval Office event that had Kid Rock standing next to him in sunglasses and a gaudily embroidered jacket?
Yes and then they shot Kid out of a cannon.
“Why not Can Trump appoint himself judge on district court and rule by TRO“
I would guess the Supreme Court will rule that Trump cannot serve a third term and that Thomas and Alito will dissent. 🤣
Just wait to see how powerful Trump is after his presidency.
Popularity doesn't last. Presidents are worn out by the time they leave the presidency. It's not going to happen.
The 12th Amendment doesn't say anyone not eligible to be elected President" can't be elected Vice President. It says anyone "ineligible to the office" can't be elected Vice President. The 22nd Amendment doesn't say that a two-term President can't be President again, it says such a person can't "be elected " President. So a literal reading says this could be done. I'm not over-fond of literal readings, but some people, including some judges, are.
I don't think this will matter, because Trump is screwing things up badly enough that our next President may well be Newsome or AOC. I voted for Trump, but this tariff mania is going to wreck the economy.
Trump has no intention of using legal legerdemain to get a third term. He’s just waving a bright shiny object to divert public attention from Signalgate and the upcoming tariff disaster.
He baits the hook, and all of America chomps on it. They cannot help themselves.
"[T]he true principle of a republic is that the people should choose whom they please to govern them."
Of course this becomes untrue as soon as any eligibility at all is required. I want to vote for Javier Milei.
Unlike Hillary, Melania is not eligible and could never pull off a pantsuit with the same flair. Melania is just not a suitable candidate.. Ivanka, however, is a kinder, gentler Trump. She could invite Dad to stay on in the Lincoln Bedroom and to be her press secretary if she wins.
Trump is just yelling “squirrel” to distract from Iran and DOGE.
And you a law professor… where have I read that before?
The 22nd was ratified in 1951. Hardly a national founding principle. Like court packing, presidential term limits is not something that is going to (should it be amended) alter the fundamental character of the republic. Thought, given the lack of interest in voting and the prospect of the disinterest not changing for the better any time soon, I wouldn’t amend the constitution to allow candidates a shot at a third term. Heck no.
Trump is trolling and the usual of rubes are frothing. As for the tariffs, they are countervailing duties. It's a game Trump reduce yours and I will reduce mine. Allow us into your markets and we will do the same. The difference this time is that he isn't joking and the Europeans don't believe him thanks to Lefty media.
The only way I'd vote for Trump in 2028 is if Harris is the Democratic Candidate.
Melania is not eligible and could never pull off a pantsuit with the same flair
...might want to edit this one for this crowd...
If everybody plays along, it's not even very complicated.
• Republicans win election in 2028
• Vice President resigns
• Trump nominated and confirmed as new VP
• President resigns
• Trump ascends to Presidency
Just because monkeys flying out of your butt
Would it be possible for you to come up with something less stupid?
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
GDPNOW — Latest estimate: -3.7 percent April 01, 2025
Any economic downturn is self-inflicted, from the series of chaotic and harmful decisions pushed by the Trump administration.
FDR was a self-styled messiah who got elected four times. The conservatives of the day then banned such wannabe monarchs, at least per the obvious path of getting elected.
Trump, a former Democrat and self-styled messiah, has perpetually characterized himself as the only one who can save the country. But, FDR died and Trump will die and the world will move on. Messiahs can never deliver on their utopian dreams. Witness the failures of the New Deal and LBJ's Great Society and Confederacy and Lenin, Stalin, and Mao. MAGA cannot be more durable, as losing focus is human nature. People change their minds every generation.
No one can save a world that doesn't want to be saved, or that chooses an alternative form of salvation. Trump today is mainly about pushing a return to pre-1913 USA laws and acknowledging the reality of multi-polar Great Powers conflicts. His vision may stick for 20 to 50 years. Still, no one in power can transcend the environment that gave them power.
I expect Trump to do a great job as President 2025-2029. When "candidate Trump" picked Vance as VP, I said, "He's (Trump's) serious!"
Vance will be a great successor to Trump.
Remember — Obama is only 63.
I don't think this will matter, because Trump is screwing things up badly enough that our next President may well be Newsome or AOC. I voted for Trump, but this tariff mania is going to wreck the economy.
He’s just waving a bright shiny object to divert public attention from Signalgate and the upcoming tariff disaster.
Who are these concern-trolls, and who thinks we should take anything they say seriously?
Would it be possible for you to come up with something less stupid?
Actually no. I think my juvenile riposte (which is an oxymoron) is the perfect comeback to the times you people make up, or believe what you heard elsewhere, shit that has absolutely no basis in fact.
And in the last couple months the number of "monkeys flying out of your ass" comments has increased exponentially. Even Althouse has started to join in with her posts (e.g., the bullshit video of Musk and that other guy claiming that 2 million SSNs were handed out like candy to illegal immigrants).
Just push the interpretation that "eligible" means what Article II sets up as the requirements: natural born citizen and at least 35 years old.
Really?! How would you react if one of your 2L's came up with this bullshit reasoning in one of your con law class. You would probably laugh him out of the room:
"Hey dumbass [or maybe asshole, you like calling people assholes], the 22nd amendment, also part of the constitution, added qualifications to what Article 2 says."
The
The only way I'd vote for Trump in 2028 is if Harris is the Democratic Candidate.
@MadMan, for my part, Harris … or Bernie or AOC or Hochul of Newsome, or, really, just about any Democrat.
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