Said RFK Jr., at a Cabinet meeting last Thursday, quoted in "Experts Doubt Kennedy’s Timetable for Finding the Cause of Autism/The nation’s health secretary announced that he planned to invite scientists to provide answers by September, but specialists consider that target date unrealistic" (NYT).
Why did he phrase it like that? I do not get the "by September." I could believe that scientists could be chosen to report their best ideas by a particular deadline and that a fact-finder could declare an answer, the way a court, after hearing evidence, could resolve an issue for the purpose of ending a dispute. But that's not the same as knowing.
I note that he did not say we will know what causes autism. He said we will know what has caused the autism epidemic. Perhaps we will know — or have a pretty good answer to the question — whether the increased numbers are caused by more people seeking the diagnosis, or a changing standard in giving the diagnosis, or some substance (or combination of substances) in the environment, or (to quote Kennedy) "different ways of parenting." To seek a cause for the epidemic is to ask what has changed. But a lot of things have changed over the years.
Plenty of people were already worried that RFK Jr. was not firmly rooted in science. His "by September" statement stokes that worry — and makes me think he likes to tweak the worriers.
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Why did he phrase it like that? I do not get the "by September. I assume RJK Jr. already knows the answer. "By September" is just the timeframe he need to gather is proof now that he has access to more information.
Rosanne and Johnny Case September when it Comes
I'm beyond exhausted trying to figure out if Trump and his people are cunning or reckless or something in between. They're doing stuff, and that's great.
We need a vigorous research and debate about the rise of autism: Is it the result of better diagnosing? Chemical/environmental factors? Social?
What are the odds the findings will create ANY sense of consensus? Because we need that in public health, a minimal level of consensus.
You're right to distinguish between the causes of autism and the causes of the epidemic.
The causes of the epidemic are already known- that is why RFK can confidently predict the answer by a/any present of future date.
The cause of the epidemic is the complex interweaving of incentives for parents, schools, teachers, and the affected children to identify as many young people as possible as autistic. It's a combination of financial, social, and practical/logistical benefits that accrue to the said identification.
None of this has any relationship to the actual disorder that is autism, and remains present in a low steady state in all societies.
Something nefarious or not on the up and up caused the massive autism spike starting with the children of Generation X. It affected by son, although he is not severe, it has caused major limitations in his ability to get out on his own. When I had him tested by a neuropsychologist in 2019 they determined “he’s right on the border, but we’re not going to diagnose him.” What a joke. He’s ‘right on the border’. But without the diagnosis he does not qualify for any help or assistance. Now he’s 22. We’re on our own.
For so many families it’s too late. It’s a lifetime condition. But IF we are a moral society, and IF our medical ‘experts’ and scientists have an ethical caring bone in their body, one would hope they are interested in finding the root cause to prevent this from happening to more children and more families.
Oh, it's a long long while
From May to December
But the days grow short
When you reach September
September: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PAb1z9SBQk
"We don't know what causes Autism and Asperger's, but we do not it's NOT the massive spike in vaccinations" So just put that out of your mind, quit asking questions, and go get your mRNA booster.
The COVID mRNA shot took vaccines out of the medical scientific realm. The fight, the mandates, the LIES about its 'safety and effectiveness', made all vaccines political. Even amongst the medical profession. Now they are a sacred cows to the believers. To question them is 'unscientific'. Such bullshit.
Once you get something like this into the political realm the search for truth goes out the window. Liberals and COVID have trashed the ability for science to search for the truth. To much money involved in vaccines. And that's nothing compared to the Global Warming/Climate Change scam. They successfully and shamefully turned science into a secular religion.
Shit. Liberals are willing to give children puberty blockers and cut off their genitals. University of Wisconsin is all in. You think these people give a shit about what caused the massive autism spike?
The increase is almost certainly a combination of many factors - increased publicizing of autism, broadening the definition to encompass a greater range of people, the substantial increase of chemicals in our water supply (fluoridation, microplastics, hormones and other chemicals) and in the food supply (massive amounts of hormones and antibiotics), things that affect the attention span of a young, growing child (proliferation of television and now smart phones that require no active involvement by the user), chemical moderation of young unruly boys-being-boys, etc.
West TX Intermediate Crude said...The cause of the epidemic is the complex interweaving of incentives for parents, schools, teachers, and the affected children to identify as many young people as possible as autistic.
I'm assuming by this statement you don't live with autism and it hasn't affected your life, or the life of one of your children. This is not a made up condition. It is very real. It is, of course, a spectrum with different levels of severity.
It's not global warming. It's not a red badge of courage for suburban white women like transgenderism. . It's very real. The spike is very real. There is no "incentive" to wish this upon a child and a family. It is truly a tragedy for children and families affected.
Plenty of people were already worried that RFK Jr. was not firmly rooted in science. His "by September" statement stokes that worry — and makes me think he likes to tweak the worriers.
Anybody who takes this bullshit seriously is an idiot. I will bet anyone on this site (including Gusty Winds), that September will come and go, and no new "knowledge" about autism will emerge. They will just backpedal and pretend Kennedy never said this.
It is kind of like the DOGE mess. Trump is raising the estimate of savings from $2 trillion to $150 billion and you all will be astounded. Then he will announce that chocolate ration is being increased and you all will cheer.
One of the causes of increasing autism (and AD/HD) diagnoses is loose criteria for the diagnoses and a desire by parents to have a "medical" explanation for their children's behavior.
I see that Fredo is bleating his usual angry nonsense. There really is no point in responding to brainwashed lefties.
I don't think there's any real question that the "epidemic" is mostly about increased diagnoses rather than increased incidence. That doesn't necessarily mean the increased diagnoses are incorrect (though I think they are).
When they started talking about an "autism spectrum," autism stopped being a health issue and became a health policy issue. As a society, we draw a line between autistic and quirky or sensitive, and how many kids have autism is a function of where we draw that line.
On the one hand, the headline is less damaging than the actual quote. Having a conference in September is doable. Revealing the answer in four months isn't. On the other hand, the headline substitutes "the cause of autism" for "what caused the autism epidemic" and claims Kennedy promised more than he actually did
Autism has been around for a long time but wasn't recognized as such. There were always people who could do nothing but stare at the fire. The consensus now seems to be that Kennedy's aunt was autistic. There's a strange situation now where even some people who expanded the definition of "autism" themselves claim or admit that there is no "autism epidemic," just a change in definitions, standards and diagnosis. You might think they'd want there to be an epidemic to justify more funding.
Three Reasons Not to Believe in an Autism Epidemic
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4232964/
Can anyone here name a disease that is not on a spectrum of severity?
"Expers" can not abide a goal, a target, an aggressive deadline. Because they are too busy not meeting goals, targets or aggressive deadlines.
He’s not science. Real science told us that being 6 feet was the proper distance to keep away the Covid virus. And that masks worked to stop it. Or…they didn’t. Or they did. Whatever.
Real science told us it could not have come from a lab working with enhanced bat viruses, but we should keep our eyes out for pangolins. And, of course, the vaccine will prevent Covid. Well…maybe not prevent, but rather, enlarge your heart.
Yes- let’s hear real science’s objections to RFK.
Sounds to me like he already knows more about the cause than he's letting on and he'll have the proof he's expecting by September. It's a strong, unambiguous statement. Not the kind he typically makes in his current role.
Trolling the leftmedia is the favorite pastime of this administration. As Salena Zito pointed out some time ago: The leftmedia takes Trump literally, but not seriously. Wiser people take him seriously, but not literally. (Or some such.) It’s telling that the leftmedia parses every word from the Trump folks after giving a free ride to Joe Dementia for years.
If you’re promising to solve autism by September, why not also promise a cure for cancer? I say go big or go home.
who are these experts did they find the cause of autism, if it's not mercury, what is it, are they the same ones who diagnosed adhd
Currently, the autism rate is 1 in 35. A roulette wheel has 38 slots. Odds are, the autism ball is not going to land on one of your kids or your family. I think that's what allows people to say, "it's just an increase in diagnosis" or "people just want a medical explanation for their child's behavior."
NOBODY wants that ball to land on their slot. If it did, you know its VERY REAL. And if it didn't, say a prayer and thank the Good Lord.
Gusty Winds, thanks for the perspective. My son's about to turn 21 and I can only imagine how much more challenging his life would be with autism.
There really is no point in responding to brainwashed lefties.
Or even reading their takes. Some peeps on here you just KNOW what you're going to get each time.
Gusty, not one person on here has said autism isn't real. I'm sorry for your struggles, but, if anything, it makes your input less valuable, not more.
One way to tuck RFK Jr back into the Science fold is to have him say Autism is caused by… you guessed it, climate change.
Statistical inference from significant changes are scientifically admissible evidence in climate science, gender ideology, social Diversity, etc.
Also, inferences from signals of unknown origin and fidelity are a model of scientific belief.
I see that Fredo is bleating his usual angry nonsense. There really is no point in responding to brainwashed lefties.
Really?! Then take the bet. I don't like to predict the future, but "RFK Jr has definitively found the cause of the autism epidemic" is not a headline you will see by the end of the Federal government's fiscal year.
The increase is almost certainly a combination of many factors - increased publicizing of autism, broadening the definition to encompass a greater range of people, the substantial increase of chemicals in our water supply (fluoridation, microplastics, hormones and other chemicals) and in the food supply (massive amounts of hormones and antibiotics), things that affect the attention span of a young, growing child (proliferation of television and now smart phones that require no active involvement by the user), chemical moderation of young unruly boys-being-boys, etc.
Even if this is all true, what exactly do you think we can do about it? The administration is gutting environmental protection, medical and public health research and telling the oil companies (the purveyors of most plastics) that with the proper bribe Trump will let them do anything they want.
FWIW, the frequency of ADHD diagnosis can be correlated to the formulas used to determine how schools receive special ed funding.
One way to tuck RFK Jr back into the Science fold
When was he ever in the "Science fold"?
FWIW, the frequency of ADHD diagnosis can be correlated to the formulas used to determine how schools receive special ed funding.
Are you saying this is a good thing or bad? There should be a strong correlation between the two.
"Freder Frederson said...
The administration is gutting environmental protection, medical and public health research and telling the oil companies (the purveyors of most plastics) that with the proper bribe Trump will let them do anything they want.
Examples of any of these. Or just another drive-by BS post.
skydragon netting, flacking for Moderna, a
Fifty years ago autism had a different definition definitely definitely a different definition definitely.
Today I might be autistic.
All these comments and no one made the analogy to is uncle saying we’d be on the moon by 1970?
We ah naht solving autism becawrs it’s easy - we ah solving autism becawrs it’s hahd!
JSM
Other factors have been mentioned, but I wonder if an additional one is people putting off having kids until older.
It’s generally well known that an older mother increases health risks in the child - especially if it’s her first. Less well known is an older father increases risk too, such as schizophrenia.
But I have not heard of any research in this area.
Are you saying this is a good thing or bad? There should be a strong correlation between the two.
I think (correct me if I am wrong, Christopher B) that the correlation is not between ADHD diagnoses and finding, but between how a school determines if someone has ADHD and funding. In other words, the funding follows the diagnostic test rather than the diagnostic results, which would push schools to looser diagnostic tests.
The Bridge (2011-2018) Danish/Swedish version with Sofia Helin, makes aspergers heroine seem like an excellent girlfriend to me. There's a Brit/French version The Tunnel, and a horrible Mexican/US version, of the same plot. Seasons after the first are ad lib. Shows that the story line character has legs. Nobody knows how to resolve it but the D/S version is best.
'I don't think there's any real question that the "epidemic" is mostly about increased diagnoses rather than increased incidence.'
You couldn't possibly know what % of the increase is from detection sensitivity/drift. Sure, I would *guess* over half of the increase is this. But parents' age, obesity, and novel to-be-identified environmental insults could plausibly have caused the majority of the increase.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/04/14/archive-emails-privilege-logs-suggest-epas-endangerment-finding-was-unlawfully-predetermined-review-needed/
tim maguire said...
Gusty, not one person on here has said autism isn't real. I'm sorry for your struggles, but, if anything, it makes your input less valuable, not more. I don't need or want your sympathy Tim. All I want is for someone to find and publish the truth so this can stop happening to future children and families. Right now that person with the courage to do it is RFK Jr. What moral person would be against that??
You said don't think there's any real question that the "epidemic" is mostly about increased diagnoses rather than increased incidence. That doesn't necessarily mean the increased diagnoses are incorrect (though I think they are).
If I read this correctly, you don't believe the spike in Autism rates is real. You put epidemic in quotes, and state you believe the increased diagnoses are incorrect. In your mind there is "no question". What exactly is it you think is real?
Also to make the claim that input from those affected is less valuable is just plain shitty. I'm guessing the life of your children was not affect so you really don't care.
they are certainly been diagnosed as such, for what 20 years now, where are the studies,
If you don't have a deadline, you're probably not going to get it done.
Far too many young men in our sons' age-group cohort are on the autistic spectrum, most in now declassified Aspergers range, to just be occurrence of more rigid screening by pediatricians. These young men are usually loners, struggle with work and social situations, not likely to get married or to become fathers themselves, and remain semi-dependent on their aging boomer parents for life-direction and some modicum of social connection.
Technical reports are quite often placed on deadlines. Just think of the famous Kennedy speech at Rice University. What about the Manhattan project?
Exactly what boat builder said. Of course this has to be completely foreign to an attorney whose whole goal is just a bill and Bill and Bill forever like Jondyce and Jondyce.
Won't be surprised if MMR vaccine is named as cause. Based on parents we know, this milestone vaccine seemed trigger-moment for concurrent changes in behaviors and preferences in their toddlers eventually diagnosed as "being on autistic spectrum".
Every time I hear Junior's name on the Legacy Democrat Progressive media, it is followed by 'vaccine skeptic'. It's a style rule, like making sure to work in President Trump's age in every story. And in both cases, the style guide apparently mandates that these points be made deliberately, positioned within the story in the most strongly critical way possible, like when Junior' makes a comment on the importance of getting the MMR vaccine to help quell the outbreaks 'says Secretary Kennedy, a noted vaccine skeptic'. They are still saying that Junior' doesn't believe in vaccines.
Now, imagine if Obama had just made this announcement. Imagine the swooning and prostrating that would go on. A second Nobel would be pulled from the box and polished up, made ready. 'How aspirational, how inspiring' the media would coo, as Obama stands nobly, nose upward, sagely counseling 'Forward!'. It's impossible to find the amount of ridicule and contempt they deserve.
Not Illinois Resident said...
Far too many young men in our sons' age-group cohort are on the autistic spectrum, most in now declassified Aspergers range, to just be occurrence of more rigid screening by pediatricians. These young men are usually loners, struggle with work and social situations, not likely to get married or to become fathers themselves, and remain semi-dependent on their aging boomer parents for life-direction and some modicum of social connection.
You are absolutely right. Sadly, most of these young men are hidden away, and not visible to the world or the "it's just a change in the way they diagnose it" crowd. To add insult to injury that are mocked and labeled "incels."
The saddest part is if you know some of them, they don't have a malicious bone in their body.
I suspect much of the increase is the same cause as the exponential increase in gender dysphoria.
"I do not get the "by September."
Because by August, nobody will remember anything about any of this.
Also, that's conveniently the end-date for the current Federal budget and everybody knows science ceases to occur without USAID funding.
Gusty, please reread what Ann wrote, and what I wrote.
We both note a distinction between the mental disorder of autism, and the epidemic of diagnoses of autism.
When a condition has only subjective and arbitrary diagnostic criteria, its prevalence can be dialed up or down by adjustment of how hard it is sought, and the very definition used to make the diagnosis. Both of these factors have been subject to major adjustment over the past few decades, with subsequent major increased in the number of people who carry that diagnosis.
I doubt that you believe that autism is uniquely unaffected by the incentives that affect every other condition known to mankind. Some people definitely are autistic, most are not.
A definite minority will seek the diagnosis, or have it sought for them, if the incentives are right. That in no way implies that you or anyone else who is affected by the disorder does not deserve every available type of support and help to deal with it. On the contrary, it means that people who seek the label without justification are stealing resources from people like you who really need them.
Ten years ago (May 2015) “Wired” magazine looked into the rise of autism and tied it to the rise of demand for software developers. The idea was that men on the autistim spectrum (meaning, I think, men with Asperger’s Syndrome) used to have limited access to female companionship because of their awkward social skills. But many of your best software developers out in Silicon Valley can pull down salaries north of $250K, which does wonders for their marriageability, Asperger’s or not. And Asperger’s is inheritable.
Today NPR had an entire show on the plight of young males in modern public schools, premised on the idea that the kids aren't ADHD, or autistic, or troublemakers, but that - and this is where NPR really jumped the shark of their ideology - but that little boys might just maybe perhaps at least a little be - gasp - different from little girls. They did this piece without a shred of recognition for their cognitive dissonance.
Close members of my family are highly vaccine skeptical and post things like this (which was posted above): "Won't be surprised if MMR vaccine is named as cause. Based on parents we know, this milestone vaccine seemed trigger-moment for concurrent changes in behaviors and preferences in their toddlers eventually diagnosed as "being on autistic spectrum"."
Anyone who says or shares anecdotes like this bothers the shit out of me. It's facially stupid as any sort of scientific understanding.
There are 3.6 million babies born a year. And the MMR vaccine is a 2x vaccine schedule. ~80% of kids over the last 3 decades got the MMR vaccine in the U.S.
This means ~5.76 million MMR vaccines are administered a year. About 16,000 per day, every day.
So the theory is that over the last ~3-5 decades, 16,000 MMR vaccines per day were given and some number of kids had an immediate and irreversible behavior change that ultimately manifested in autism spectrum disorder permanent outcomes. And that somehow this isn't easily detectable, measurable, defineable
Note: The theory doesn't posit how many kids on days they didn't get MMR vaccines suddenly developed behavior changes, it just says if a behavior change emerged post MMR that must be the trigger of autism.
Decades of research have gone into proving this link. NOTHING to show for it. And it's STILL going today.
I would love for the link to be as simple as MMR vaccine = 1.5-2% incidence of Autism. That would be clear, measurable, concrete, and actionable.
It's not. It never was. And it's derailed good autism research for 2 decades on the back of stupid anecdotes that then suck up attention, funding, and subsequent research.
Those who continue to posit it literally set back actual Autism research.
Mikee, ref NPR re-thinking automatic ADHD diagnoses:
I don't think it's cognitive dissonance. I think it clicked that trans-boys (i.e. kids with XX chromosomes and short haircuts) could start getting diagnosed with ADHD too, and subjected to the same indignities as cis-boys. Can't have that.
JSM
“ NOBODY wants that ball to land on their slot.”
Truer words have never been spoken.
Today NPR had an entire show on the plight of young males in modern public schools, premised on the idea that the kids aren't ADHD, or autistic, or troublemakers, but that - and this is where NPR really jumped the shark of their ideology - but that little boys might just maybe perhaps at least a little be - gasp - different from little girls.
@mikee, + 1. How to get it across to the sort of indoctrinated trash who teach elementary Ed that little boys are not defective girls is still to be determined.
It's not just an increase in diagnoses (which is probably what ADHD is). I've been teaching for 28 years, and the numbers of students with serious difficulties has increased both steadily and in spurts. The biggest change was around 2014, when suddenly WOMEN started showing up with autism spectrum behaviors that are not play-acting or attention seeking. There is something biological going on.
If I had to put a bet on a single cause, I would say sub-clinical auto-immune inflammation at crucial periods in development caused by the adjuvants in vaccines and exacerbated by the shifting of the vaccine schedule earlier and earlier.
Vaccine makers are very proud that they've reduced the amount of antigen in the vaccines, but in order to do that, they've cranked up the amount of adjuvant. The problem is that adjuvants indiscriminately fire up the immune system, so it will respond to the antigen, but it will also respond to anything else, also.
And how would you identify sub-clinical brain inflammation in a newborn or small child? They get restless and cry a lot? THAT will really stand out from regular newborn behavior, won't it?
Also remember that the "Science" was so certain that the covid shots could not cause heart attacks or strokes because "vaccines don't cause heart attacks or strokes." That, by the way, is the still the dogma, even though we know that the covid vaccines can cause myocarditis, and myocarditis can cause heart attacks and strokes.
I hope I am completely wrong about this, but the fact that no one has bothered to test some very obvious hypotheses makes me fearful about what might have been done to children through arrogance, selfishness, and groupthink.
I just read an article on the rise of ADHD diagnosis in the NYT today and it makes me more RFK Jr. sympathetic. So much settled science isn't really settled and so many doctors are unwilling to change their minds.
"So much settled science isn't really settled..."
Some is more settled than others, but no science is truly 100% settled.
Some is more settled than others, but no science is truly 100% settled.
It is not in the nature of science to be 100% settled. People who say "the science is settled" are politicians not scientists.
It is not in the nature of science to be 100% settled. People who say "the science is settled" are politicians not scientists.
Exactly.
I read it as “we’ll (all) know by September.” Meaning, HHS already knows and the report is being finalized.
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