April 18, 2025

"The single worst thing I think this White House could do politically is what they are doing, right?"

"Creating a causal relationship between their signature economic policy and prices going up. And so if... we do see that inflation or we do have a recession... this White House will be blamed... And that creates the perfect conditions for Democrats to have a good midterms and feel good about 2028. And that's nothing to do with their own vision.... Right now, it seems like the chaos, they're kind of used to. Donald Trump up against his usual enemies. And I think there is some leeway — for art of the deal... negotiation, things like that. But the guy who says he'll eat a rat for Donald Trump is the exception. If those prices increase, the only person who will be blamed for that is the president. And if you're a Democrat, that's the best thing that could happen for the prospect of the party returning the power, right?"

Said Astead W. Herndon, in "Do Trump Voters Like His Tariffs? We Went to Michigan to Find Out," today's episode of the NYT "Daily" podcast.

Was there a guy who said he'd eat a rat for Donald Trump? There was a guy who said he wouldn't care if prices go up, that he would "survive," "adapt," and: "I'm the kind of guy that'll, if I'm starving, I'll eat a rat. I'll eat cockroach. I'm a survivalist." I wouldn't say that's eating a rat for Donald Trump. It's eating a rat for himself — to survive. The implication is that he's self-reliant. He doesn't look to the government to solve his problems. The podcast made it sound like a "Fear Factor" challenge or a sick devotion to Donald Trump, the man. 

Anyway, I'm trying to highlight the idea that — on the tariff issue — those who are rooting for the Democrats seem to think their best strategy is to do nothing but hope for inflation and recession: "That's the best thing that could happen for the prospect of the party returning the power, right?"

141 comments:

mikee said...

So the Democrats think the only way they can win an election is to have the country fail. Got it. Thanks for making that so very clear, again.

RideSpaceMountain said...

These people just do not get it...

Millions of us can live in a world without electricity.
Without reliable access to food or medicine.
Without cell phone towers and telephone lines.
Without 3rd parties providing security.
Without intricate logistics for products from far away places.
Without running water.
Without plumbing.
Without tax-based regulatory structure of any kind.
Without heat in the Winter and AC in the Summer.
Without an economy in all but the most basic form.
A world without roads, bridges, railroad tracks, or port facilities.
And most important of all, a world without them.

Millions of us can not only live, but thrive, without those things. They can't, but that is not our problem. Maybe when the untouched shelves of the vegan section at their local Publix empties they can just eat each other.

Kate said...

We know that the US needs a return to manufacturing. Tariffs may not be the best way to achieve that, but at least Trump is trying. If Dems believed in industrial revitalization, they could advocate for their own plan. They don't, though. They're content to manage the decline.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

@RSM:

This one's for you.

Howard (not that Howard) said...

I seriously am so done with the media-driven propaganda notion that tariffs will cause inflation. "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."

Those who don't understand Friedman should be remediated.

pacwest said...

Not a good look for the Dems, hoping the economy goes in the shitter, but they are right. If this blows up in Trump's face it's in their best interests as a party. Salivating for American failure. The party of Obama. Godamn Amerika.

doctrev said...

It's absolutely idiotic that the Democrats have chosen to die on this hill. Sure, tariffs will cause prices to rise, which is natural when you stop trading with the Chicoms. But union types in Pennsylvania and Michigan aren't as retarded as Democrat NPCs apparently are. If President Trump continues to maintain tariffs on China, the Democrats need to write off industrial states like Ohio and Michigan for a generation. This might be replaced with states like Arizona and Nevada, but if union men overwhelmingly break with the Rats, that's the end of the party.

tommyesq said...

Gee, they have given the tariffs a whole 16 days to produce all of the effects sought, and now propose a change in policy to deal with an election that is 1299 days away.

RideSpaceMountain said...

Thanks OneOhOne, but urban cowboy is about as close to country as I get. Everything enumerated above is a luxury. I enjoy luxuries, but never at the cost of my freedom, independence, or dignity. Lots of people are willing to part with those things for luxuries, and as Benjamin Franklin once said, eventually "they'll have neither."

narciso said...

aktually they are going for the weakest fruit of the tree,

I read the Times when i'm at the deli, for entertainment, but I don't take it seriously

Howard said...

Everything right now is a sideshow except for the economic and otherwise Cold war versus China. Right now the Chinese are calling president Trump's bluff. The Chinese strategy is that they can take a lot more economic pain than we can.

How this resolves over the next 3 months is the real issue for the legacy of this Trump administration. If you can strike a beautiful deal with China, then he will be a superhero. It's a big risk with potentially huge reward and a pretty awful downside.

Absolutely the Democrats only Hope right now is failure. That too is a huge risk because they will not be able to take any credit if Trump manages to pull the rabbit out of the hat.

narciso said...

we're on pins and needles Howard, about that,

tim maguire said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
narciso said...

so the Dow has been basically flat for the month, its not ideal but compared to the Ragnarok we were promised was going to happen sigh,

Wince said...

Just like when egg prices were the Democrat talking point once Trump took office, the Democrats are now counting their tariff chickens before they are hatched.

Even if tariffs are imposed, there are myriad ways the burden (incidence) of the tariffs will be incurred on the exporting country. China is already "dumping" exports at below cost prices to keep its troubled economy alive.

Even the cost of tariffs has to be compared to the benefit. The Kaldor-Hicks adjustment to Pareto optimality used for decades to promote global free trade should be equally applied to reciprocal tariffs intended to -- well, actually promote global free trade.

Kaldor-Hicks efficiency, a concept in welfare economics, judges an outcome as more efficient if those who benefit from a change could hypothetically compensate those who are harmed, leaving everyone at least as well off as before. This is a less stringent criterion than Pareto efficiency, where a change benefits at least one person without harming anyone.

stlcdr said...

Considering tariffs, specifically levied against China, while people say ‘all our stuff is made in China!’, what are these goods, specifically? All the consumer goods are luxury items - even if they are Chinese junk. All the true luxury items made in China are just that - items we can live without.

Further, tariffs are places on the imported cost, not the final retail cost we see in the store. It’s made for 2 dollars and sells for 40: what is the tariff on that?

We are not going to have a recession because of this.

tim maguire said...

Milei first harmed the Argentine economy before it took off due to his reforms. Trump is trying something similar—pain up front for big gains later.

It’s not that his supporters don’t mind higher prices or lower stock values, but that they are willing to give Trump’s reforms a chance. They’re willing to wait and see.

Which is a far more sophisticated and adult response than the temper tantrum his critics insist we are obligated to throw.

narciso said...

its hard to really gauge things properly because Xi has a whole host of outlets that are lesuo, compromised in mandarin, who tell us these things,

Howard said...

Argentina is but a pimple on the body of world economics wow the United States is the brains and heart. You are comparing apples to aphids

Howard said...

China is the arms and legs.

Lazarus said...

Biden was running around the country last year saying that Trump wanted a recession and hoped it would happen when Biden was still president. The business cycle is a reality. Politicians and their hangers-on always hope that it happens when the other guys are in charge. Those hopes are usually in the background, though. Politicians and parties usually have other things to talk about. Today's Democrats are on the 20% side of 80-20 splits on issues, so they can only hope and dream of an eventual recession.

narciso said...

that includes the Financial Times edited by a Whitehall legacy, Ed Luce, as with many papers on this side of the ocean

narciso said...

yes the market was probably frothy like a Cappucino, because of all the monopoly money that has been shoveled into it

Peachy said...

Ann said:
" on the tariff issue — those who are rooting for the Democrats seem to think their best strategy is to do nothing but hope for inflation and recession:"

That's it.

The hate-filled Molotov cocktail left are rooting for failure - so they can get back to power- which allows them to open the border and stuff their pockets with USAID and other nefarious tax payer funded personal profits.

Bob Boyd said...

The reason the Republicans got Trump was exactly this kind of thinking: Make promises to get elected. Don't keep them because that's what's best for the Party.

Kakistocracy said...

The entire MAGA philosophy is based on the idea that an elite cabal of woke experts has ruined America. Their skepticism of experts does not allowed them to take seriously any pushback to their ideas. They’re fully committed to their ideology and nothing any experts say is going to change that.

In fact expert criticism only reinforces their beliefs.

Like the Brexiteers.

The power of faith.

BUMBLE BEE said...

News Flash. The sky is NOT falling, unless you're paid to say so.

tommyesq said...

Right now the Chinese are calling president Trump's bluff. The Chinese strategy is that they can take a lot more economic pain than we can.


This. You can safely assume that the Chinese government has infiltrated the press at least as much as the government and is behind many of these "journalistic" endeavors.

Butkus51 said...

China seems to have a lot of democrat friends.

Wince said...

Kakistocracy said...
The entire MAGA philosophy is based on the idea that an elite cabal of woke experts has ruined America. Their skepticism of experts does not allowed them to take seriously any pushback to their ideas. They’re fully committed to their ideology and nothing any experts say is going to change that.

Likewise, the expert class is terrified they will have to endure the humiliating revision of their over-priced college textbooks. Go to Greg Mankiw's blog to hear that other side. The Harvard faculty consensus Mankiw (W Bush) and Summers (Clinton, Obama) is incredibly weak tea. Speculation. Ad hominem.

A total WOW! for any student of economics.

Peachy said...

Kaky - once again you get it wrong.
It's Team D who trot out the "experts".. who are often not experts - but merely hacks.
Similar to the covid lab leak cover-up.

john mosby said...

RSM: your “millions” is maybe tens of millions. Food is the limiting factor. I can do everything on your list except raise my own food. Even if I knew how, I don’t own agricultural land. Nearly all the MAGAites are in the same boat. Yes, we have a lot of hunters, but there’s not enough game to support 150M people.

Even our agriculture is based on mechanization. Lose the logistics chain for petrol distribution and even the farmers might starve.

I do agree with your larger point that MAGA is better prepared than the left for a breakdown of civilization. And with what may be your implied point: MAGA can bring about a breakdown of civilization much faster than the left could.

JSM

Peachy said...

Make America Great Again - offends the Soviet collective left.

Kakistocracy said...

^^ Yes — why should people care that 10% of their portfolios have been vaporized in a matter of months because of the whims of Trump’s incoherent tariff policies?

 Coming to realize that this a feature not a bug for a lot of his base. It seems to validate a grievance bias.

Pretty sobering really.

Nihilism on display.

Dave Begley said...

"There was a guy who said he wouldn't care if prices go up, that he would "survive," "adapt," and: "I'm the kind of guy that'll, if I'm starving, I'll eat a rat. I'll eat cockroach. I'm a survivalist."

That's the context fallacy or bullseye fallacy.

Pick out one extreme comment, focus on it and draw the bullseye around it. That then frames the issue.

Jersey Fled said...

Just for reference, the month over month March rate of inflation was -0.10%. In other words, prices went down.

So we’re talking about imaginary inflation at this point. And as famed economist Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Dave Begley said...

Right now Japan has a 30% tariff on US beef. Probably the same for pork. If he can get those Japanese tariffs lowered, farmers make more money.

Iman said...

Democrats gonna democrat. When they aren’t actively working to crush souls and destroy America, they are praying like Romans with their eyes on fire for it to happen.

Wince said...

Howard said...
Argentina is but a pimple on the body of world economics...[y]ou are comparing apples to aphids.

Isn't that the point? None of these countries can forego the US market?

Political Junkie said...

I think the analysis is correct. Reagan was loved by the electorate, but high inflation asnd interest rates contributed to a strong D midterm election in 1982.

Iman said...

kaKA love love loved it when Biden’s willful actions nearly doubled the price of every commodity during his Feigned Reign of Error.

Earnest Prole said...

The single worst thing I think this White House could do politically is what they are doing, right? Creating a causal relationship between their signature economic policy and prices going up.

I watched dumbfounded as Joe Biden branded the worst inflation in forty years “Bidenomics” and drove his approval ratings on the economy down to 33 percent. Surely Donald Trump has the good sense not to make the same mistake with tariffs.

Luke Lea said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mccullough said...

$37 trillion in debt and a Stock Market based on Smoke & Mirrors. Everyone should get ready for survival no matter who is in office

Luke Lea said...

Tariff reform is all about short-term pain for long-term gain. Whether the voting public will stand for it remains to be seen.

There also appears to be a major fiscal crisis rapidly approaching, one that is almost certainly going to lead to big tax increases all across the board. One big increase I would like to see is removing the income cap on Social Security and Medicare taxes.

Another possibility, though it would require abolishing overseas tax havens, would be a progressive tax on consumption, the advantage here being that, unlike with a graduated income tax, even very high marginal tax brackets would not discourage savings and investment. In fact just the opposite.

Here's a lobby-proof version of a progressive consumption tax that I came up with after many years of searching: https://shorturl.at/u7ecL

But no matter what, tough times ahead. Will be interesting to see how Trump handles it all.

narciso said...

except tax raises will not bring more revenue, stop trying to fix things the wrong way,

Wince said...

Kakistocracy said...
^^ Yes — why should people care that 10% of their portfolios have been vaporized in a matter of months because of the whims of Trump’s incoherent tariff policies?

Look at the S&P or NASDAQ 5Y charts. The markets are where they were a year ago. Who was crying then?

The asset inflation due to the hot money
policies of the Biden administration pushed PE ratios higher, especially in the "Magnificent 7" -heavy NASDAQ. The market still should be nowhere near a bottom.

That it appears we've established at a "bottom" at these still high valuations tells me that the tariff announcements were a catalyst for a correction that was overdue and perhaps incomplete. Confidence in Trump policies have seemingly established a bottom, at least for the time being.

n.n said...

Anti-Trumpers like labor (e g. slavery) and environmental (e.g. Green blight) arbitrage, redistributive change schemes (e.g. progressive prices through debt), and human rites to alleviate "burdens" of evidence.

n.n said...

The kleptocracy strikes back.

n.n said...

The kleptocracy doubled-down with passage of Obamacares that is a first-order, and, in fact, primary forcing of progressive debt and unaffordable education, housing, food, medical, etc. The ethnic Springs and CAIR only served to exacerbate the deficits. So does the performance of human rites in liberal sanctuaries.

RideSpaceMountain said...

JSM said, "I do agree with your larger point that MAGA is better prepared than the left for a breakdown of civilization. And with what may be your implied point: MAGA can bring about a breakdown of civilization much faster than the left could."

This has been modeled many times. Not a shot needs to be fired for 20,000 guys who know how to operate a backhoe to cripple the logistical network feeding every city in this country with a population of 100,000 or more in less than a month. The roads will be closed. Trains will not run. Your cell phone will not work. The lights will not come on at night. The food in your fridge will be useless in 72 hours. The stores will be closed because they will be empty. The fiat in your wallet will be useless. No...we do not accept bitcoin.

I'm not even talking about subsistence farming. Those "tens of millions" you referenced already have a year's worth of supplies or they haven't been doing it right. The overwhelming cohort of fiat-flush urban progressives don't even realize how slavishly precarious their political loyalties make them to people that couldn't give a flying fuck when the lights go out. The community alliances they think exist are flimsier than giftwrap and cease to exist within two seconds of the lights going out.

My entire point was designed to echo the sentiment of Peter-Peter-Rodent-Eater that self-sufficiency was, is, and always will provide those who value it political independence as well as economic and social independence.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

That's right kaka. We systematically reject all experts who have a demonstrated record of failure and misery, which is each and every one the ones that support Democrats regardless of facts on the ground.

When an expert has a demonstrated track record of CORRECT statements regardless of political expediency, like the three from the Great Barrington Declaration or Art Laffer or Milton Friedman, then we take their pronouncements VERY seriously. But we have been fed so much BS from the DNC-Media-approved "experts" that they have completely lost their ability to sway the public. It was the general population that abandoned masks and booster shots long before the experts admitted they were wrong.

Many (Fauci cough cough) have NEVER admitted all the lies they fed to us.

Kakistocracy said...

The U.S. now faces the difficult task of negotiating trade deals with over 180 countries during Trump’s ‘90 day pause’—an absurd timeline. Even if “deals” are reached, their durability is questionable. Can businesses plan long-term investments amid such chaos? Unlike governments, businesses must think in years, not days. Shockingly, Xi Jinping’s China, with its party bureaucracy, now offers more predictability for businesses than the U.S. This is not just surprising—it’s scandalous. Trump’s supporters should have foreseen that, unrestrained, he would unleash disorder. The allure of the “strongman” is a timeless folly. History shows that absolute power corrupts, especially in the hands of demagogues who crave it.

The one silver lining of Trump’s trade policies is their stark reminder of this truth. They are harbingers of chaos. The world’s challenge is to survive the folly. The US must end it.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

these still high valuations tells me that the tariff announcements were a catalyst for a correction

Exactly. Pre-election many experts were warning that Tech Stocks were do for correction (and indeed they make up 70-80% of the recent correction).

A year ago Business Insider was warning of a tech bubble. Last July The Motley Fool was warning about the Tech bubble leading to a market crash. Last September C Tech News was warning of a tech bubble. In March TheStreet.com was warning about an overinflated tech bubble.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

"Were due" not "do" oops

hombre said...

What, exactly, are the currently measurable results of Trump’s tariffs? Nothing but bullshit from the Democrat Media Cartel.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Kaka be spinning some serious horse excrement today! Face it nerd, your side spent 40 years indoctrinating America's youth in "trust your own instincts" and that there are no absolute truths because you have "your truth" to guide you, and every fact is malleable, and that America is a racist sexist hellhole and NOW you want to know why we don't trust YOUR experts?

GTFOH!

Big Mike said...

The Democrats appear to be indulging in their favorite economic fantasy: the myth of the “stupid American peasant.” Most of us didn’t go to Ivy colleges so we’re all ignorant, right?

No one will look at a shuttered American factory that could not compete with cheap Chinese goods, realize that with a 145% tariff it becomes financially viable, and set about reopening it*
because out degrees are not ftom Ivies and therefore we are stupid, right? No one will respond to Canadian limber bring subjected to tariffs by reopening sawmills in the US.

BTW, employment is up, jobless claims are down, and both Astead W. Herndon and Jerome Powell are fools.

AMDG said...

There are two things that will kill Trump:

1. No matter how you lay it out the tariffs will make everyone poorer. When the impact is realized Republicans will pay the price.

Donald Hoover, I mean Herbert Trump, mean Donald Trump’s bizarre obsession with obsolete 18th century economic theories will be his undoing. Every time tariffs of this magnitude are imposed a depression follows.

2. Trump is compounding the idiocy of his tariffs (a case can be made for decoupling from China but everything else is retarded) with his decision to seed the economy with as much uncertainty as possible. Companies are doing nothing now because they do not know what their supply chains will be like six months from now. That alone is going to lead to recession going into the 26 midterms.

With any luck the Courts will end this madness since they clearly violate Article I Section 8.

For all you Mercantilists - does it make sense to put the fate of the world economy in the hands of one man? To me the concept is unAmerican even if the policy is a sound one.

Will you say the same thing when President AOC declares a climate emergency and bans meat and the noted Al combustion engine. Think about it because that is what you are asking for.

narciso said...

yes that is the fallacy of static analysis,

Harun said...

I think tariffs will hurt in surprising ways. Watch for US factories to lay off workers if they cannot get critical parts for the products. For example, China banned the export of magnets.

Big Mike said...

____________________
* In blue states, of course, the bureaucracies will do their best to throw roadblocks in the paths of people trying to reopen shuttered but now viable sawmills and factories (and steel mills). Sorry, working class and middle class blue state voters, but this is what you voted for.

hombre said...

Kak: “Trump’s supporters should have foreseen that, unrestrained, he would unleash disorder.”

Remember the studies concluding that lefties because of their silo and groupthink are clueless about the opposition while the opposition because of the leftmedia, etc., understands them. Here’s an example. This person thinks we elected Trump to preserve uniparty “order.” Also, that Trump supporters are susceptible to Democrat talking points.

Hassayamper said...

Shockingly, Xi Jinping’s China, with its party bureaucracy, now offers more predictability for businesses than the U.S.

That's been the case for decades, thanks to the piratical American "lawsuit lottery" legal system, the delegation of the legislative powers of Congress to the regulatory whims of corrupt and crusading bureaucrats, and our penchant for periodic moral panics like the George Floyd madness. All of which can be laid at the feet of the Left.

As long as you're OK with mandatory piracy of your intellectual property, and the need to cultivate lucrative "guanxi" under the table with the nephew or brother-in-law of the Party official supervising your operation, doing business in China is as predictable as the sunrise.

loudogblog said...

"Was there a guy who said he'd eat a rat for Donald Trump?"

As far as I can tell, G. Gordon Liddy never expressed a public opinion about Trump. (G Gordon Liddy died in 2021.)

Drago said...

It makes perfect sense the LLR-democraticals, like Abacus Boy Rich, the forever bitter and lashing out DeSantis holdovers, like AMDG, and the faux "objective" above it all fakers, like Earnest Prole, occupy the exact same rhetorical space.

It will always be thus.

n.n said...

Tariffs are designed to make labor and environmental arbitrage games unaffordable and to return capital investments to domestic development. Companies like Apple will be have to reconsider their priorities. This is part of a fiscal and economic correction similar to WWII but without opening mass abortion fields.

Kakistocracy said...

“To try to stave of tariffs, Vietnam is expediting approvals of a $1.5 billion Trump Organization resort”

Anxious Trading Partners Promise to Buy American to Stave Off Trump’s Tariffs ~ WSJ

He planned to extort these countries all along. This action from February is revealing:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security/

narciso said...

oh noes how did we ever by without Chinese magnets

mikee said...

Howard above confidently states, "China is the arms and legs" of the world economy. I would use another bodily part to describe China, at least its government.
https://x.com/OvaThinka/status/1285952395055431687?lang=en

Drago said...

LLR-democratical Rich: "He planned to extort these countries all along"

LOL

"Extort"

Try and find a love that is as protective of you as Abacus Boy Rich is of his ChiCom heroes.

AMDG said...

Drago said...
It makes perfect sense the LLR-democraticals, like Abacus Boy Rich, the forever bitter and lashing out DeSantis holdovers, like AMDG, and the faux "objective" above it all fakers, like Earnest Prole, occupy the exact same rhetorical space.

It will always be thus.

4/18/25, 11:23 AM

——————————-

There are no serious people who think that Trump’s tariffs are sound economic policy.

As usual Drago does not address the issue, instead he take ad hominem shots at people who think his Lord & Savior is wrong.

People like Drago have surrendered critical thought to their cult. In this they are no different than the leftists they claim to oppose.

If Donald Trump came out in support of pedophilia Drago and his ilk would join NAMBLA and then crucify all people who think they are nuts.

AMDG said...

The idiocy of the Trump tariffs is best exemplified by what he is exempting from China.

In addition the subsidizing of farmers who will be crushed by the tariffs are further indication stupidity of the policy and an example of why tariffs will not raise the revenue that the Big Buffoon claims they will.

bagoh20 said...

"So the Democrats think the only way they can win an election is to have the country fail."
They're right about that. Therefore, failure, or the appearance of it, is what they will be working on feverishly until they do.
It's disappointing that voters are so easily convinced that the people drilling holes in the boat can be better than the ones bailing it out.

Iman said...

Some of these comments/commenters lead one to wonder just how many “Americans” are on the ChiCom payroll.

Jerry said...

As Mike (MJB Wolf) said - the 'experts' on the left have shown that as subject matter experts go they were more invested in a proper political solution than an actual reality-based one. Especially if it didn't provide a 'proper' resolution.

The problem is that the advice, the results, didn't correspond with reality. It's like firemen advising to put kerosene on a building fire. It's like electricians mandating 18-gauge wire on 100-amp circuits, plumbers putting half-inch piping on a high-volume low pressure supply. Bad advice pushed by authority figures doesn't gain trust, it erodes it and eventually breaks it completely.

The question then becomes, 'who benefits'? And by how much? During Covid the left let their absolute authoritarian freak flag fly, ignoring DECADES of practice in how to handle epidemics.

And for 4 years we watched the Dems screwing up the economy.

NOW we're supposed to believe they've got a handle on the economy. That they're really, really concerned with how Joe Sixpack in flyover country is doing, and worrying about the future effects of what Trump's doing.

What they fear is what if it visibly, clearly works it'll stomp the 'great ideas' they've been pushing for decades into the dirt. So it's got to be stopped however possible, talked down constantly, and an impression of failure must be established before it even takes effect.

Far as I'm concerned, the Dems have been mostly in charge for the last 16 years, with the establishment under Trump's first four years fighting any change they could because it 'wasn't how we've always done things'.

I'm ready for a change. NYTimes doesn't. That's understandable - but they're dying, and fighting change isn't going to work.

hombre said...

I’m so busy trying to find and catalog the economic damage done to countries by extorting tariffs from the US for decades that I have little time to respond to the seditious lefties posting here.

William said...

Sadly analysis of the current market with all the bars and graphs and trenchant quotes has been swallowed by the blogborg. Let me briefly restate my case: People don't always act in their rational self interest. I point you to the example of WWI. However when dealing with their economic self interest as opposed to things like religion, nationalism, and the rights of transgender athletes to play volleyball, people more often than not act in their rational self interest. Both China and the US have more to gain by trading than by a trade war. I expect to see some sort of agreement worked out in the near future. When that happens, the market will have a V shaped recovery.....Anyway, that's my hope, and my money is where my mouth is. We'll see how it goes. In any event, chaos is more energizing than entropy, and you can be sure that something other than a slow slide to oblivion will happen.

Earnest Prole said...

If Trump tanks the economy or causes prices to rise like Joe Biden did, no amount of excuses from Trump’s simpering little bitches will make any difference whatsoever. A majority of ordinary Americans are thankfully nonideological and utterly deaf to clever red or blue explanations.

hombre said...

AMDG: “There are no serious people who think that Trump’s tariffs are sound economic policy.”

This ridiculous statement could only exist in an environment where the mass media is controlled by the Democrat Cartel. Tariffs are no less sound than corporate taxation. Tariffs are imposed by virtually every trading nation in the world. Soundness is defined entirely by circumstances, not leftist politics or TDS.

Drago said...


AMDG: "As usual Drago does not address the issue, instead he take ad hominem shots at people who think his Lord & Savior is wrong."

This "issue" has been addressed ad infinitum on Althouse blog for years. There is nothing more to say about "theory" and different interpretations of economic history. AMDG knows this full well having been in the middle of those discussions.

We will see if Trump's multi-faceted plan to alter the trajectory of future ChiCom economic dominance is successful.

AMDG: "If Donald Trump came out in support of pedophilia Drago and his ilk would join NAMBLA and then crucify all people who think they are nuts."

What's particularly ironic about this comment from GOPe globalist suckup AMDG is that his GOPe globalist heroes actually did align with the democrat enablers of groomers and pedophiles and are currently fighting tooth and nail against Trump as he battles the dem/GOPe uniparty.

Drago said...


Hombre (to GOPe globalist suckup AMDG): "This ridiculous statement could only exist in an environment where the mass media is controlled by the Democrat Cartel"

As evidenced by every AMDG post, thats an environment where AMDG clearly feels most comfortable....assuming Ken Griffin et al doesn't order him to feel more comfortable elsewhere.

AMDG said...

hombre said...
AMDG: “There are no serious people who think that Trump’s tariffs are sound economic policy.”

This ridiculous statement could only exist in an environment where the mass media is controlled by the Democrat Cartel. Tariffs are no less sound than corporate taxation. Tariffs are imposed by virtually every trading nation in the world. Soundness is defined entirely by circumstances, not leftist politics or TDS.

4/18/25, 12:30 PM
————————-$

And every trading nation in the world is poorer than the US and the gap is widening.

hombre said...

Try searching anything with the word “tariffs.” At best you get a hit on lefty Wikipedia purporting to define tariff followed by mediaswine hysteria: TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP. It’s no wonder Democrats can stay ignorant.

AMDG said...

Drago: GOPe, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.

Trump’s tariffs are idiotic and will make everybody poorer.

The end result will be unified Democratic control by 2028 and the sacred “America First Agenda” will be laid to waste and President Newsom (or AOC or Bootyplug) will reopen the borders, eliminate all voter ID, and resume lawfare against Trump and his cult members.

All because people are afraid to tell the King he has no clothes.

Trump’s idiocy will go down in history as the worst political own goal.

hombre said...

AMDG: “And every trading nation in the world is poorer than the US and the gap is widening.”

Lefty logic. This must be a result of tariffs, right?/s

It is simply not possible to reason with this level of absurdity.

Drago said...


Hombre (to GOPe globalist suckup AMDG): "It is simply not possible to reason with this level of absurdity."

Believe it or not, AMDG was actually much more absurd across the board as the DeSantis campaign crashed and burned in Iowa. For the last several years, AMDG's talking points and rhetoric has been indistinguishable from every other Althouse lefty.

Temujin said...

Again- the Democrats haven't had a new idea since the 1960s. They sell fear. And this time around they are selling fear while hoping for the worst.
They believe this is leadership and vision.

AMDG said...

hombre said...
AMDG: “And every trading nation in the world is poorer than the US and the gap is widening.”

Lefty logic. This must be a result of tariffs, right?/s

It is simply not possible to reason with this level of absurdity.

4/18/25, 12:48 PM
—————————
Tariffs are a tax on the nation that levies them.

Tariffs retard economic growth.

Retarded economic if growth makes everyone poorer.

Trump’s justification for tariffs - that trade deficits represent an American taxpayer subsidy of other countries is profoundly ignorant.

The idea that the US manufactures nothing is nothing short of a lie.

The end of the dollar as the reserve currency will be devastating.

Darkisland said...

I'd be willing to bet $10 or so that we get to 29 with no major changes in tariff rates coming into the us. Probably major changes in us imports to other countries.

There could be a few exceptions for certain companies or goods.

There will also be a broad tariff of 10% or so on all imports coming into the us. Some exceptions perhaps. I like the idea of a general 10% tariff. Or as it used to be called customs duty.

Darkisland said...

Exceptions for certain countries, not companies

gspencer said...

Trump's guy understand the concept of Deferred Gratification.

Peachy said...

I think the tariff deals are going to take some time to work out.
All the folks who insist this or that - might all be wrong.

Drago said...


AMDG: "The end of the dollar as the reserve currency will be devastating."

LOL

Make sure you keep us updated hourly on this one!

AMDG said...

Drago - what positions have I taken that could be classified as left wing?

The only people taking left wing positions are the Trump worshippers:

1. Tariffs have long been a leftest goal. A good chunk of the Big Buffoon’s policy is straight from pre Clinton Democrats (Gephardt). Bernie Sanders has been a long time proponent of tariffs.

2. The concept that the President can reorder the world’s economy without Congressional input is Wilsonian.

3. The idea that the US can walk away from the world and nothing bad will happen is straight from George McGovern (“America come home”).

4. The idea that the Social Security and a Medicare cannot be touched has been Democratic doctrine for the last 40 years.

Drago said...

Peachy: "I think the tariff deals are going to take some time to work out."

So much more than tariffs are in motion.

Peachy said...

Temujin said:

"Again- the Democrats haven't had a new idea since the 1960s. They sell fear. And this time around they are selling fear while hoping for the worst.
They believe this is leadership and vision.
"

Worth a nice hearty bold.

Peachy said...

Drago - like what?

Drago said...


AMDG: "The only people taking left wing positions are the Trump worshippers:"

Well, that explains all the left wing love for Trump supporters..../s

boatbuilder said...

AMDG: With any luck the Courts will end this madness since they clearly violate Article I Section 8.

You keep saying this. It's not true. There are multiple statutes by which Congress has delegated tariff authority to the Executive, which have been used by every administration over the last 50 years to impose broad and specific tariffs. Obama imposed a tariff of 520% on Chinese steel, and 35% on Chinese tires, for example.

Congress, not the courts, has the authority to check the Executive regarding tariff policy. Your desire to have some judge interfere with the process is profoundly unconstitutional.

AMDG said...

Boatbuilder - The question is can Congress delegate powers that are solely reserved to Congress on such a large scale?

Could Congress delegate its impeachment powers to the executive?

Drago said...

Peachy: "Drago - like what?"

Non-tariff trade barriers, including BS technical/safety barriers (i.e. EU rules on car safety. EU/Australia rules on food safety), etc.

Strategic considerations: is our trading target needed to help isolate/engage the ChiComs? Not act as a pass thru for the ChiComs? In a position to act as a geo-military ally?

Is our trade target in a position to purchase US debt at current or slightly lower market rates?

Things like that.

AMDG said...

Drago - The Progressives hate the Trumpists because of social issues. When it comes to economics there is not much room between Trump and Progressives.

Drago said...

boatbuilder (to GOPe globalist suckup AMDG): "Congress, not the courts, has the authority to check the Executive regarding tariff policy. Your desire to have some judge interfere with the process is profoundly unconstitutional"

But AMDG's desire to have some judge interfere with the process is perfectly in line with previous and current New Soviet Democratical lawfare tactics.

Unexpectedly.

boatbuilder said...

Boatbuilder - The question is can Congress delegate powers that are solely reserved to Congress on such a large scale?

It is what they have done--for long enough that it is taken for granted that the Executive has plenary authority to negotiate trade deals and to impose tariffs.

What you want is judge-made "law" to prevent the Executive from acting upon the authority which Congress has delegated. Because you don't like what the elected President is doing.

Call your congressperson. That is how Constitutional democracy works.

Drago said...

AMDG: "Drago - The Progressives hate the Trumpists because of social issues."

Your "understanding" of the current and past decade of the political landscape, including relevant subgroups beliefs and motivating factors, is every bit as "thorough" and "spot on" as the DeSantis presidential campaign tactics and results.

Rusty said...

Who else are the Chinese going to sell to besides us? We're their largest market. Their industries are geared to supplying the US market. None other. We not only know how to manufacture things we know how to manufacture things efficiently. What is China going to do when they can no longer steal our proprietary ideas?

hombre said...

AMDG: “Tariffs are a tax on the nation that levies them.”

This Democrat talking point does not get you out from under the “poorer than the US” absurdity (12:37). But please explain: If tariffs tax the levying country by raising prices and are therefore bad, how are the increases in corporate taxes invariably imposed by Democrats that raise prices good, or even benign?

Hassayamper said...

There are no serious people who think that Trump’s tariffs are sound economic policy.

Fuck the "serious people". All those Top Men have put us $37 trillion in debt, with a dollar that today is worth what 3 copper pennies could buy from the Revolution until 1913.

I'd like to see your "serious people" tied to stakes on the roof of the Federal Reserve right before we burn it to the ground.

narciso said...

yes they come off like the ministry for silly walks in terms of credibility

hombre said...

AMDG: "Drago - The Progressives hate the Trumpists because of social issues."

Nonsense. They hate him because he is an apostate Democrat who threatens to shut off the grift spigot that enriches their elite and funds Gramscian Marxism.

Big Mike said...

If Dems believed in industrial revitalization, they could advocate for their own plan. They don't, though. They're content to get personally wealthy from the decline.

@Kate, FIFY

RCOCEAN II said...

I find this endless NYT's propaganda so BORING! It never changes, it never will change. Its been going on since August 2015.
Trump bad.
Orange man wrong.
Walls closing in on orange man.
Another mistake by evil Orange man.
Our new insightful analysis: Orange man wrong
A new NYTs perspective: Orange man evil.
X-Burts dislike Orange man
Orange man Authoritarian says somebody.

Its like Goddamn Pravada under Stalin.

RCOCEAN II said...

And I love how so many people who couldn't explain international trade to you, or gave a thought to Tarriffs in their entire lives, are now X-Burts on both.

Nancy said...

So happy to see the rats tag! Althouse, can you bring back your drawings?

Jim at said...

Remember when Rush Limbaugh said he hoped Obama would fail? High Treason!!!!! according to the left.

Yet they openly root for America to fail if they're not in power.

narciso said...

well they were previously ukraine experts and before that experts on epidemiology

AMDG said...

hombre said...
AMDG: “Tariffs are a tax on the nation that levies them.”

This Democrat talking point does not get you out from under the “poorer than the US” absurdity (12:37). But please explain: If tariffs tax the levying country by raising prices and are therefore bad, how are the increases in corporate taxes invariably imposed by Democrats that raise prices good, or even benign?

4/18/25, 2:03 PM

—————————

What makes you think I am an advocate of corporate taxes?

At some point all taxes are paid by people whether it be through direct levies or passed on through higher prices, lower investments (slower growth = decreased wealth), or lower dividends.

JIM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
JIM said...

I have never heard a single Democrat voter show any awareness of the Inflation rate rise during Biden's time. What's up with that? Prices skyrocketed the most in 40 years. Yet, Kamala came a lot closer to winning than I thought she would. What's up with that? I'm thinking Democrats would gladly suffer a recession if it helped their electoral outcome.

Mason G said...

"I'm thinking Democrats would gladly suffer a recession if it helped their electoral outcome."

Bill Maher (not the most hardcore progressive on the block):

June 8, 2018: Maher acknowledged that the economy was "going pretty well" but expressed hope for a recession, stating, "I feel like the bottom has to fall out at some point. And by the way, I’m hoping for it. Because I think one way you get rid of Trump is a crashing economy. So please, bring on the recession. Sorry if that hurts people, but it’s either root for a recession or you lose your democracy."

narciso said...

a reference I've made on more than one occasion

Harun said...

I am in the import/export trade. I don't think people understand what's going to happen. 1) American factories rely on some Chinese parts. 2) Oil production, tractor parts 3) Trump has not planned for any compliance - I can tell because since June 2024 Chinese freight forwarders endlessly spam me with offers to evade tariffs. I turn them in to Customs, but these firms still exist. One of them is a very large famous freight forwarder, Forest Shipping. The sales lady bragged about undervaluing imports.

Trump's entire presentation seemed designed to be a big TEE VEE EVENT. LIBERATION DAY.

If he wanted to target China why did he hit everyone including...israel....australia...its dumb.

And by naming it like that....well, good luck if this goes sour...which it will.

I could support 10-20% tariffs, BTW. or higher if it was done gradually with a plan. Trump also needed to be ready to cut IMMEDIATE deals - you notice no deals have been made, just "talks."

China just banned magnet exports to all countries. Guess what some American products use? magnets. Japan has a stockpile of them when China did this to them before. President Trump couldn't be bothered to consider such a precaution...in fact, I don't think they did any planning at all.

so what's going to happen?

American companies will mostly comply. We will pay the tariffs. We will run out of key components like rare earth magnets and have no stockpile. Factories will lay off workers. Chinese offshore importers who sell on Amazon? They can cheat at will because Customs is understaffed and doesn't know how to catch cheaters - I literally sent them evidence and they didn't care. So good luck - you're going to see less American companies and more Chinese companies...and then Trump will have to cave in about 2 months.

Also, people who think China is full of peasants are living back in 1992. China is now cheap because of automation, and possible currency manipulation - Trump could have pushed something there, but decided to just have a big TV show event instead.

Harun said...

I hope I am wrong, but everyday I see more evidence I am not wrong. The silver lining is Trump is willing to back down sometimes. And I moved 50% of my production to Vietnam.

BTW, I also got my products quoted in America by a factory a block away from me. .Their price? Double the retail price.

They have the same machines...or WORSE than Vietnam. Vietnam has all the automated laser cutting, turret presses, robotic welding they have but newer machines.

And Vietnam struggles with Chinese prices!

deepelemblues said...

I am shocked that left-wing journalists think a Republican is doing THE WORST POSSIBLE THING

narciso said...

its not they are never wrong, which they are,

Iman said...

After Trump’s November victory, it took a long time for many TDS sufferers to heal from the solid kicks their testes and/or ovaries - along with their dreams and aspirations - received. Most of these individuals took extended vacations from this blog.

It was an enjoyable respite from having to read their warped takes on contemporary life. A time of honesty and good faith.

Oh, well. All things must pass.

narciso said...

there's probably a salve for that,

AMDG said...

deepelemblues said...
I am shocked that left-wing journalists think a Republican is doing THE WORST POSSIBLE THING

4/18/25, 5:16 PM

—————————————-

Was it part of Trump’s plan to put a 99’day moratorium on the Bind Markets when they started feeling “queasy” (his word) about the tariffs?

Was it part of Trump’s plan to exclude higher end items from the Chinese tariffs?

Was it part of Trump’s plan to announce subsidies for the farmers who would get screwed because of his tariffs thus negating inflow of funds to the treasury?

Face it - Trump has no plan. He thinks tariffs are good and trade is bad. Beyond that he knows nothing. When it comes to economics he is locked firmly in the 18th century.

narciso said...

ironic how every major country does use the tariff as a tool including some of the most populous like China and India

tcrosse said...

A few years back, in this space, I asked how many Covid deaths Democrats would accept if it got rid of Trump. Another commenter answered, as many as it takes.

jim said...

So, how will the demonocrats effectuate their nefarious plan to sabotage donald's well thought out tariff/trade war plan?

Kakistocracy said...


My hunch is that the beatings will continue until morale improves. There is now little doubt that stagflation will engulf America late this year.

The challenge which is not being talked about is the corporate debt refinancing wall that will hit starting Q3 and lasting 2-3 years.

We would normally see a QE response to provide liquidity to soften this...but I don't think Powell can flood the market with liquidity just when inflation really takes off again thanks to the insane tariffs.

And as for four rate cuts? Unlikely whilst inflation is going the wrong way.

It's a perfect storm -- it's inevitable earnings will crash, and things will spiral.

BTFD? Only if you have a screw loose.

Iman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Iman said...

Time will tell.

wildswan said...

Trump is doing a lot of things at speed; he's not just doing tariffs; he's doing waste,-fraud-and-abuse, immigration, over-regulation, rebuilding the military, shipbuilding and manufacturing, ending educational rot. We can't know the effect of doing a lot of needed reforms all at once. My idea is that countries and companies everywhere will recognize that the US is getting needed medicine and our position will strengthen. Prices are falling internally, I know that.

The Dem party slogan in 2026 will be "Viva TCF" (Treason, Crime and Fornication). The Dems are sure they'll win the mid-terms anyhow, just because the party out of power always does. I wonder in these years of real reform if that will be true this time. Based on the past, Trump had no chance in 2024, did he? Will "Treason, Crime, Fornication for all" be enough for a Dem victory against Make America Great Again?

Mason G said...

Will "Treason, Crime, Fornication for all" be enough for a Dem victory against Make America Great Again?

They'll likely need some voter fraud, too. That's their go-to, only idiots knowingly vote for the crap they advocate for.

Drago said...

LLR-democratical Rich: "My hunch...."

....has never panned out!

Not even a single time, nor even partially.

Kakistocracy said...

Trump administration set to impose steep fees on Chinese ships docked in US ports ~ WSJ

"Plan alarms farmers and other exporters while Beijing warns of higher shipping costs and supply chain disruption"

"US farmers have expressed dismay that an overly-punitive fee structure would harm their ability to export goods by forcing ships to visit fewer American ports in an attempt to reduce the fees they have to pay"

Booking ocean freight is complex enough as it is. This is one of the dummest ideas from a regime which is overflowing with dumb ideas.

'Let's pick a fight where we have one card and they have fifty one. I'm a very stable genius'

This is a wonderful experiment on which is more important, consuming or producing.

The problem is, Trump's advisers know that these sorts of grand pronouncements appeal to his base enormously. So he can say "We're going to build ships/phones/cars here. We're going to make all your clothes here." and they go "Yeah, jobs! Great!"

They have absolutely no understanding of (or if we're being honest, care for) any of the economic reasons or nuance as to why this simply is not possible and will not work. All they care about is making these grand promises, then blaming absolutely everyone else, when they're unable to materialize.

Nobody is going to restore US ship building, especially Trump. It is quite possibly the worst place to try run a shipyard. High labor costs, strong dollar (weakening daily), strong unions, high material costs, politician uncertainty, and fierce competition from Asia.

Current newbuild costs are 2-3x that of Asia. And that's before Tariff man's policies spike inflation to the moon.

So when this whole 'ships' thing just doesn't happen, it will be "I wanted to bring all these great jobs back to America, so life will be like it was back in the 50s and 60s. But the mean Democrats and Chinese stopped me." Doesn't matter that that will be patently untrue. To the masses that make up his base, it will make perfect sense. Especially Drago....

Expect to see a huge uptick in shipping traffic to Vancouver, Montreal, Vera Cruz and Manzanillo. Also expect the Chinese to tack on docking and transportation fees to the price of goods. The American consumer is the big loser in this scenario.

Rusty said...

"so what's going to happen?

American companies will mostly comply. We will pay the tariffs. We will run out of key components like rare earth magnets and have no stockpile. Factories will lay off workers."
Only until whatever is needed is sourced another way or manufactured in house.
What you see as a dire crisis the marketplace sees as an opportunity. And as we all know," Where there is a market, that market will be met."

Kakistocracy said...

There are many ways to measure the effects of out of control and unreasonable irrational tariffs, but most aren't very accurate. Market flux, price indexes and GDP may be useless at the moment.

We're seeing some mass layoffs already as some markets have been completely frozen by uncertainty, and small businesses are going to start dropping like flies as there supply chain volatility increases.

MAGA has now come home to roost, and like all things MAGA, is proving to be the antithesis of what they thought it meant, but exactly how anyone outside of the MAGA bubble knew it would.

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