ADDED: ABC has Harris at 51% and Trump at 47%. In its previous poll, at the end of August, Harris had 50% and Trump had 46%. They remained exactly the same distance apart in percentage points — 4. That's less obvious when you say "Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level."
September 15, 2024
"Vote preferences haven't moved meaningfully.... Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level in ABC/Ipsos polling."
I'm reading "Harris seen as debate winner while maintaining slight lead over Trump: POLL/Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris shows little impact, the poll found" (ABC News).
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Well, there goes the theory that the effectiveness of celebrity endorsement is directly proportional to celebrity height.
Oh my God. So serious about the celebrity endorsement? I would be embarrassed to even mention it. Artists have a different orientation and it's not cerebral. I don't look to them for guidance on politics lol.
It’s teh WAP Election!
Last night, my liberal neighbors were playing an Ezra Klein podcast so loud that I couldn’t get to sleep. When I came over to knock on the door and ask them to turn it down I saw a big MAGA sign in the window. This election is over.
Is "The Worse, The Better" having a moment? 😉
The betting markets have the race at 53%/46%, so its still pretty much a tossup.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
51-47 among reg. voters, 51-46, among adults, 52-46 among likely voters.
She says less relevant with fluff. He says more relevant with fluff. The celebrity endorsement is fluff. The press recycles the fluff with their own layer of fluff. Then we vote... and they announce their preference and a plausible poll.
Trump was poorly prepared, let himself get baited, and did a lousy job. But Harris had a job to do, which was to convince the undecided voters that she had a set of plans and policies that she would put in place to improve the economy and deal, not just with the border but with immigrants already here and doing things like running around Colorado apartment complexes with semiautomatic rifles. And she failed, utterly. It did not help her cause that making faces while Trump was speaking is far from presidential.
Both lost.
I'm waiting for ZZ Top to weigh in.
I'd place more confidence in the predictive value of betting markets if people investing in them reflected a much broader cross-section of the electorate.
People should be paying a lot more attention to the ground games here. I hear the Dems are way ahead of the Repubs on this. I think this will make a sizeable difference because of all the mail in ballots. And by "way ahead" I mean by a factor of 10 or more in terms of spending and personnel on the ground. OTOH, Elon says he is doing something about this, and you should never underestimate Elon.
Trump is also being outspent by quite a bit overall. How are the airwaves looking there in Wisconsin?
I expect more DNC-sponsored comment activity too.
well within The Margin Of Fraud
let me know if/when Trump is up by more than 20 points
(which would mean: he'd STILL lose)
I've been saying that, quoting Lenin, for a long time https://althouse.blogspot.com/2020/05/at-sunrise-cafe.html?showComment=1588474719445#c2347460089672847461
Democracy is analogous to a toxic parody of #MeToo. Show me the votes!... and day after pill.
"ABC has Harris at 51% and Trump at 47%. In its previous poll, at the end of August, Harris had 50% and Trump had 46%. They remained exactly the same distance apart in percentage points — 4. That's less obvious when you say "Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level.""
Good catch. So the headline should read "Harris Fails to Improve Polling Versus Trump Despite an Allegedly Disastrous Debate for Trump." Their chosen headline suggests that Harris improved her polling by a percentage or two since we are expecting an improvement for Harris and the question we are asking is "how much did Harris improve in the polling." The answer to the question we are asking is "Zero."
I think if this election was ruled in a Democratic court of law, we would have to conclude that both candidates are not viable, and are, in fact, serial predators and probable "burdens". Send them both to Planned Presidenthood.
The R candidate should be 6-10 points ahead. and will need to win by a ton to overcome the cheat and the illegals voting.
Agree.
what's the 12 year old girl vote like? Nancy Pelosi is working on a bill to let 12 year old girls vote. It's for the children.
No surprise there. Nine years after he first ran for Trump says that he still only has “concepts of a plan” for some issues.
On the economy, he plans to give tax cuts to billionaires and make distortionary changes that would explode the deficit (again). He wants to remove the independence of the Federal Reserve, and impose what is in effect a national sales tax on all imports — whether they’re from allied countries or not — which would raise prices for consumers.
Under Biden and Harris, real median incomes and labor force participation are higher than they were in January 2021. Unemployment and the deficit are lower. The stock market has set record after record, boosting the savings and pensions of tens of millions of workers and seniors. And the US has had the fastest per capita growth in the G7, by far.
trump has been campaigning for 9 years ,Harris 5 months and she is showing him for the old ,senile man(BIDEN) that he is ! Wait until the SWIFTIES start hitting the election offices and getting their parents on board. Taylor 280,000,000 followers and trump has the wonderful Laura loomer 9/11 denier,(inside job) Ted Nugent shit in his pants washout out and who can forget Chachi. ALAN LICHTMAN ( picked 9 0F 10 last presidential winners,all over KAMALA..Nate Silver picked Clinton 74% to 28% and has had to leave his previous gig for incompetence..ALAN for the win. 45 BEAUCOUP DINKY DAU
I watched the debate. I didn't think Trump did well, but I'm still going to vote for him......I think most people have made up their minds. It would take a truly spectacular gaffe to sink either candidate. Harris has a lot of potential in that field, but Trump also says a lot of dumb things.....I do think the Taylor Swift endorsement counts for something. I think she can actually move her fans to register and vote. These aren't undecided voters. These are lazy voters who make up a great deal of the American electorate.
Don’t worry, Trump may not be paying much attention to the ground game now but he’ll make up for it by releasing the Kraken after the election.
Polls are all over the place. The three most accurate polls (at least from 2016 on) are Atlas, Rasmussen and Trafalgar. These suckers have Trump up 3 to 5 points. And even these polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 by 2 points.
HOWEVER, the polls that are being ballyhooed by legacy media have Harris up 6 points and on pace for a 400+ votes in the electoral college.
You can believe whatever you want at this point. For example, a lot of the polls legacy media is relying on show Harris stomping on Trump in Pennsylvania. If that were true, why did Harris know the exact number of Polish people living in Pennsylvania (800,000)? A strange thing to say during the debate and something, I think, that points to bad internal polling.
Trump slipped through the cracks the first time That WILL NOT be allowed to happen again. Voting is irrelevant.
12 years is well within the first trimester of life, a third of the way to adulthood in some jurisdictions.
No. You are wrong. After Chi Com Covid - the dems have taken credit for very marginal upticks in economic growth - which had nothing to do with them.
Under Trump - he gave tax relief to EVERY income bracket. The "only billionaires get tax cuts" - Is just a Maddow BS lie. Blue-Anon.
Under Biden-Kamala - we have massive crime waves (and lies about crime stats due to the feds not keeping track) We have massive inflation - due to government spending. Millions of illegal entrants allowed in - and given free money - all ultimately paid for by tax payers.
Stop lying- You paid leftist hack.
I think so.
Kamala has threatened Elon Musk to stay in line - or else. An Authoritarian attack on free speech.
Diplomacy is out the window in regards to WAR - and your democrat party is now the Party of war. Dick and Liz Cheney have endorsed Kamala.
Just like TayTay's non-existent baby-bump, her airheaded base of support is a mile wide and as deep as a tabloid mag in a grocery store's checkout line.
It's almost as if the average swing voter realizes that a different standard applies, and that performance in the Reality Show that Presidential Debates have become--much less an endorsement by Taylor Swift or Beyonce-- don't matter.
Trump is the TaylorMade candidate with a swift swing... vote. Four! I mean, fore!
At Trump's campaign rally Friday in Las Vegas, the GOP presidential candidate announced the endorsement of "Latin music superstar Nicky Jam": "Do you know Nicky? She's hot!" Someone get the net for this old man, NICKY is a man , I hope don't try to grab him by the "pussy" ?
I agree. Harris won the wrong debate. She didn’t even try to win the important debate, which was convincing swing state voters that her policies would materially improve their lies.
She's having kittens. A little catnip, when she can afford it. She's a pet parent.
Where do you get your talking points from?
Yes.
Swift's endorsement will mean next to nothing (in terms of votes) in the long run.
According to the Census Bureau Household Income Survey:
In the first two years of the Biden Presidency, real income dropped by 2% to 5% from every tenth percentile cohort. For example, the bottom 10% of households saw their income shrink 3.1% while the 50% percentile saw it shrink 2.7%.
Conversely, even with the pandemic, four years of Trump raised the income of those cohorts 8.1% and 8.2% respectively.
Each of the five lowest cohorts gained more under four years of Trump than eight years of Obama. Furthermore, Trump's annualized gains beat Obama's across all cohorts.
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...
The R candidate should be 6-10 points ahead. and will need to win by a ton to overcome the cheat and the illegals voting.
Quit hyperventilating, and especially spewing unsupported claims about what the margin 'should be' pulled out of your nethers. No Republican candidate, not even the winners, has cleared 51% of the popular vote since GHWB in 1984, and a 6 point national lead would tend to indicate a Reagan 1984 landslide which ain't happening anytime soon. Even Obama's margin in 2008 of 7% only netted him 28 states plus DC.
Most knowledgeable observers concede a Democrat has to be ahead by at least 3 percent in a national poll in order to win at the Electoral College. At a 4 point difference Harris is barely into winning territory with Trump currently running much better than he did in either 2016 or 2020.
Harris was trying to prove that she was a serious candidate during the debate. The big news of Swift's endorsement that very night was a weird juxtaposition for me.
Whenever I read one of Dinky's comments, I wonder why mental hospitals were closed in the 80s.
If Kamala wants to debate again it could mean their internal polling looks bad for their boss, the first African Indian American black woman of color vice president of the United States of America 🇺🇸 (just being inclusive)
You know who else had a lead in the polls? AND in the popular vote? Never-president Hilary Clinton.
Why do we pay so much attention to voter polls when it is the state's, with their electoral vote wh decide the presidency?
We should be looking at what states each will win and how they get to 270
John Henry
And HOW MUCH DID THEY WEIGHT the poll to Democrats in order to produce that outcome? If you don't know what I'm asking, then you don't understand push polls that the media does to create the false impression that the race is close and that Democrats are leading.
What is the predictive history of degenerate gamblers and other slot-machine junkies?
The media is attempting to portray this as a normal election - when in fact it is FAKE. It is unprecedented in our nation's history that a sitting President is deposed and, in a coup, replaced as the candidate of any political party. This isn't normal and doesn't represent how our elections have historically been conducted. The media are the enemy of the people.
He's been out longer than that.
"Harris seen as debate winner ..."
Notice how ABCNews just asserts this, without evidence? Who has seen her as the debate winner? What is that person's name? How did they decide she was the "debate winner?" All of this is just fake AI-written garbage.
Faced with a choice between bad and worse, I am going for bad. Trump for president. It could be worse.
Since they missed killing him, the only way left for the Dems to beat Trump is to cheat, bigger than last time.
How can what occurred last Tuesday be characterized as a “win” for Harris, when she never answered a question? That was a joke.
Facts cut a hole in Rich and his System of a Clown.
"ABC has Harris at 51% and Trump at 47%. In its previous poll, at the end of August, Harris had 50% and Trump had 46%. They remained exactly the same distance apart in percentage points — 4."
Just for sake of argument, forget margin of error, these results are bad news for Trump. While the distance between them is the same, 4%, the number of undecided went from 4% to 2% where the new decided split 1% for each. The result is even if Trump gets all of the remaining undecided there are only 2% available so the best he can do is loose 51%/49%.
Bottomline, Trump need to convert voters who are now expressing support from Harris to Trump voters, which I suspect is harder than just getting the uncommitted, which he has been that successful at anyway.
They are also thin markets where someone in Hillary’s team can take some petty cash out of a drawer, buy a long position and make it look like the electorate is breaking for her…
Thanks for the chuckle, Lilly.
Ezra klein thats funny oh your serious
Many Trump supporters whose opinions I trust agreed that Harris won the debate.
It is the easiest decision of all time.
Name them.
What was the poll's party weighting? I'll wait ...
Funny how just a few days ago the election was over. Trump was finished after a ‘president’ bidenesque debate loss, then the coup de grass of the swiftie rejection.
They caught the car but didn’t know what to do with it?
If you really trust IPSOS. And you shouldn't.
what was the composition of the samples
My congressional House district is a toss-up. The incumbent is Republican, but she faces a very strong challenger. The Democratic National Committee and the Harris campaign just dumped $2 million into the the challenger's coffers. So far Trump's Republican National Committee has donated 0 to the Republican incumbent. Something is seriously wrong here. I sincerely hope this isn't happening elsewhere.
I thought she won the debate the morning after (when I actually watched it). Now I am not so sure. What the Democrats thought was the biggest gaffe and the one they immediately jumped on was pet-eating comment. However, do you see what happened over the last 5 days? The Democrats have had to openly admit that there are 20,000 new Haitian refugees in a city that had less than 60,000 people prior and all due to the policies of the Harris/Biden Administration. So now the media is in a rear-guard action trying to explain how having 20,000 new foreign residents is benefit to the city of Springfield and all the other small cities Harris etal. have distributed similar numbers with similar ratios- and that rear-guard action is a political loser.
I think that’s right. Post-debate internal polling must have told a very different story than the spin. Trump would be all over a second debate if he thought he had ground to make up. Trump’s a businessman. You don’t keep negotiating when the deal favors you.
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1835347010527822267
who's the representative,
I'm just going by what I hear from people and see in my city. I know no one who will admit to voting for Harris. Not even my liberal hair on fire sister in law who, 4 years ago hated Trump, but who now says she's voting for him, reluctantly. I have not seen one Harris sign, anywhere. No paper signs, no bumper sticker, no tee shirts, nothing. I see Trump flags in ghetto neighborhoods, I see them in neighborhoods with multimillion dollars homes, even hanging from apartment balconies. I see MAGA hats and tee shirts.unless it's shy Harris voter syndrome, it doesn't look good for her. I live in a blue capital city of a formerly red state, now more blue, until Harris.
There is a certain kind of, very dated, complacency that afflicts Republican political efforts. The notion that people will turn away from pain rather than continue to embrace it, and so it isn’t necessary to sell to them very hard. That simply isn’t true anymore, if it ever was. The electorate is too ignorant, too inundated with a hail of bullshit, to recognize how their choices directly impact their lives. Corn Syrup politics.
"I'm waiting for ZZ Top to weigh in."
Not sure of the other two original members, but I'd bet on (the late) Dusty Hill pulling the lever on a straight D vote.
Fortunately Trump took the high road this morning with a four-word all-caps announcement: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”
Orange politics can best be understood as a return to middle school.
I’ve never been called by a pollster. And there’s a good chance if they have ever called my number my phone has blocked it.
This isn't normal and doesn't represent how our elections have historically been conducted.
Wrong! The current primary system has only been in place since 1972. Before that candidates were chosen in the proverbial "smoke-filled room" (some, but not all, states had nonbinding primaries starting in the early 1900's).
if we believe that "lonejustice" is an actual person (and, Not just Chuck pretending).. Then "his" representative would be Mariannette Miller-Meeks (who in 2020 won in the People's Republic of Johnson County by SIX votes; and in 2022 (won by a Staggering 8,744 votes)..
Will she win again? Chuck, i mean "lonejustice" says she faces "a very strong challenger" and that the Democrat Party has ALREADY spent $2 MILLION dollars on the race..
Of course, Chuck, i mean "lonejuctice" says it's a "toss-up"..
this would be NEWS to people that actually live IN Iowa
“ Project 2025 – Lie
National abortion ban – Lie
“Very fine people” hoax – Lie
Will be a Dictator – Lie
Blaming Trump for Afghanistan- Lie
Racism and division by Trump – Lie
Never said she will ban fracking – Lie
Rally goers leaving early – Lie
“I will go over my plan” – Lie
Police died on Jan 6th – Lie
“Bloodbath” comment – Lie
Trumps stance on IVF – Lie
Won’t take guns – Lie
Trump weak on foreign policy – Lie
Trump friends with Putin, Un – Lie
Trump inciting Jan 6. – Lie
No military in combat zones – Lie*”
https://x.com/BelannF/status/1834602202364571712
https://amgreatness.com/2024/09/15/on-truth-and-lie-in-an-extramoral-sense/
JuiceBox Mafia for the pre-Victory Mince!
Lem, that was my thought as well. Republicans historically have be undercounted in national polls, and Trump even more so. The actions of Harris' team speak volumes more than the media-massaged national polls.
Apart from the cogent replies above, why do we even care about the popular vote when the election is determined by the count in the electoral college? Unless Comrade Kammie's lead in each swing state is such that she wins the state's electoral votes, the national polls are meaningless. More (attempted) FUD. Thanks for playing.
So Hill died a stupid, silly man. That’s a shame.
They text me but think I’m ‘Khin’…I’ve had the same phone number for decades.
Don’t whine, Earnie… your Swiftie Fan Club membership will pull you through this!
other than that, it was a fine performance,
Thank God we have Field Marshall Freder to correct our mistakes.
"There is a certain kind of, very dated, complacency that afflicts Republican political efforts. The notion that people will turn away from pain rather than continue to embrace it, and so it isn’t necessary to sell to them very hard. That simply isn’t true anymore, if it ever was. "
Bingo bingo. I blame the Contract With America, and 9/11. The first nationalized house elections, which meant less focus on the nuts and bilts of voter turnout. The latter hurt the GOP because the dem response to it was so awful that for about six years the GOP was able to run on simply not being the dems.
A lot of the hostility to Trump among Republicans is simply anger that the world is no longer 2004 and they haven't adjusted.
Never-president Hilary Clinton
Bears repeating.
His "Ground Game" has to be better than Romney's.
Nope. There is no way that 50% of American citizens are supportive of Harris and The Party- No effing way. These polls are as cooked as Biden's vote count in 2020. It's fabricated by conspirators to defraud and deceive the citizens.
DD45 arrives with his or her DNC talking points .
National polls are meaningless as are media polls.
The only polls I would trust are the state by state polls that the candidates pay for.
I don' t worry about polls. It's vote counting I worry about.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/09/an_unserious_debate_in_which_trump_got_the_strongest_play.html
"I didn't think Trump did well, but I'm still going to vote for him"... Oh, thank gawd you're not going to vote for Harris just because Trump's debate performance didn't do it for you. But there's still time for him to displease you between now and November, isn't there? A mean tweet, a rejoinder delivered crossly, a campaign statement not worded correctly, and that's it, right?
Sorry America, gotta leave you to the tender mercies of anti-Americans/democrats/terrorists/child abusers because I just don't approve of Donald Trump.
"Trump also says a lot of dumb things" I bet you think the eating cats and dogs thing was dumb, don't you? Except, thanks to Trump's bringing up the issue before the nation, voters who otherwise would be tuned out are questioning the policy of importing millions of hostile foreigners who don't belong here.
It's very discouraging, when our nation is under a siege of evil forces, to constantly hear supposed conservatives/republicans denigrating a very successful republican president and candidate for trivial matters, imperfect manners, and things they do not understand because they are ignorant and arrogant and think that they are a better person than Donald Trump.
Dinky Dau… Satanist to his short and curlies.
Seems now they have people massaging data to insist there aren't even 5000 new immigrants in and around Springfield. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1834808909452001532.html
So either there are 20000- or there aren't....
Or- as is likely the real case, no one knows any actual real number. Could be more, could be less. By a significant amount in either direction.
https://donsurber.substack.com/p/singing-kamalas-praises-in-the-wrong
Really? I live in a pretty solidly red part of semi-rural AZ, and I know plenty of Harris supporters. Also lots of Trump haters, of course. I found Peter Theil's take on the election interesting. He believes the election will be a decisive win whichever way it goes, but if it is close, it automatically goes to Harris. I expect her to "win" in the end, one way or another, but I'm sure as hell going to be casting my vote for Trump. Hell, I'll even swallow my pride and vote straight ticket Republican. Like the Southpark creator (one of them) said, "I hate Republicans, but I FUCKING hate Democrats"
Iman
"So Hill died a stupid, silly man. That’s a shame."
I'm pretty sure the point was that graveyards typically go 100% Democrat.
Oh brother.
To me, the winner of a debate is the person who makes the more convincing argument in favor of that person's side of the issue and/or in attacking the opponent's side of the argument. Based on that definition, Trump won overwhelmingly. The issue being debated was, in essence, "Would the country be better off with him or with kh as president for the next four years?" Trump won because kh could not answer basic questions such as, "Are Americans better off today than four years ago?", "Why have you changed your position on so many issues," and "Why haven't you already done in the last 3.5 years the things you're now promising to do?" She failed utterly to make a coherent case for her candidacy. Moreover, she resorted to one lie after another to provide the supposed meat of her argument. Trump OTOH made the case for what he would do as president and why a 180-degree turn away from the Biden-Harris administration is needed. He could have made his case BETTER than he did (e.g., I don't think he mentioned fentanyl coming across the border even once), but the case he made was infinitely more compelling than what she presented.
Concluding thought: I think a lot of people judge these debates based on what they imagine the reaction of OTHER people to what they witnessed. If people just use their own judgment and common sense as a guide, I think far more people would concede that Trump was the winner.
Hating Taylor Swift is a bad move. Should have stressed that with a Trump economy, more fans would be able to afford her recordings, her memorabila and her concerts.
It's the economy, stupid.
he did?
Trump could have chosen a more graceful way of pointing out that a sudden influx of 20,000 migrants can point burdens on a town of 60,000 people. Beyond that, I don't think it's fair to say that Haitians are hunter/gatherers of domestic pets. This is America. There are cheaper and better meats than domestic pets. You only have to go to the supermarket and shoplift them. Beyond that, there's the fact that no matter how long you marinate a cat, it still tastes stringy. And don't get me started on how difficult it is to strangle a cat. I suppose an argument can be made that fat, lazy Labs are good eating and can feed a family of four for a week, but it's ridiculous to claim that cats are a viable source of cheap food.
Secret Service agent fired on a man who appeared to have a gun on Trump Intl Golf Course in Palm Beach. The man was later arrested by Sherriff's Deputies on I-95 Not much info yet
Assassin or some poor guy holding his putter?
https://nypost.com/2024/09/15/us-news/shooting-reported-at-donald-trumps-golf-club-while-ex-president-was-on-grounds/
Marty H - Trump and Vance should be shouting that from the rooftops.
The things is -we all know it. We all feel it. Life is super expensive and more difficult under Biden/Harris/democrat rule.
Well, they tried to murder Donald Trump again today.
They fucked up and did it in Florida, however, so this time, the Secret Service and the FBI won't be able to cover it all up.
The lead investigative agency is the Palm Beach County Sheriff ... not the incompetents from Washington, DC.
And oh look, they've already caught the guy fleeing up I-95. DC would be up I-95 from the golf course where the Secret Service shot several times at a man holding what they believe was a gun and who they believe fired multiple shots at Trump.
Gunshots near his golf course just now. Secret Service shot at someone,. Later arrested.
Gunshots near his golf course just now. Secret Service shot at someone,. Later arrested.
The Left will continue to try to assassinate Trump. For the Left, that's what democracy looks like. Like Mao wrote, down the barrel of a gun.
There are a lot of Dims who don't do much other than hold their putter.
Eh, that is nothing as serious as calling in a bomb threat to a city hall.
And that will be amplified on social media. And what will be it's effect on the polls?
The Supreme Court's email database has been leaked by Democrat insiders to the New York Times.
More protecting our Democracy by the Deep State.
Trump must be leading in the polls that really count because the Deep State foot soldiers are still trying to kill him.
More surprising is that the Cheney and Putin endorsements haven't moved things. Could any endorsement move things? Trump even got a Joe Biden endorsement with that hat, and still nothing.
🤣
Economics 101. Large scale tariffs result in declines in domestic output and productivity, higher unemployment, more inequality and real exchange rate appreciation implying a loss of international competitiveness, while having only small effects on the trade balance.
Maybe cable TV can at least try to explain and educate. Does not even have to be a Wharton professor, any high school teacher will do..
Economics 101. Large scale tariffs result in declines in domestic output and productivity, higher unemployment, more inequality and real exchange rate appreciation implying a loss of international competitiveness, while having only small effects on the trade balance.
That makes no logical sense.
Where (and from whom) did you take Econ 101?
I lived in Iowa and voted Republican there for 50 years. If both you and gilbar are correct, the Dems having to drop that kind of external money into a district that includes Johnson county, the Quad Cities, and portions of the Des Moines metro is money they can't spend else where. And it looks like MMM is running against the same Democrat she beat in 2022.
Concepts of a plan: where do you get your talking points from?
That's the theory, but under Trump , despite the tariffs, GDP, productivity, and inflation were all in historically great shape before the pandemic.
Prices were low. Middle East peace treaties were getting signed. Russia was staying out of other countries. Gas prices allowed free travel. Cats and dogs were living together. It was great.
The good news is that the shooter was apparently using a (likely semiautomatic) AK-47. So, he missed. The weapon was never designed for distance shooting. He probably would have done better with a standard AR-15 in 5.56, or in even better long distance calibers. I would ask though why the Secret Service missed. Surely someone close in had a distance weapon, and was trained for using it. I am willing to cut them slack for now. The ones I met Friday here were very professional.
And barbecues were sticking to accepted meats.
Assassin or some poor guy holding his putter?
If you try putting with an AK-47 you are apt to have a lot of bogeys. OTOH, the other members of your foursome are unlikely to challenge you when you tell them how many strokes you took.
Sunny
@sunnyright
·
1h
Donald Trump has now experienced as many assassination attempts as Kamala has experienced interviews.
The Secret Service found an AK 47 clone nearby.
Has Inga been accounted for?
These people, the left, must really be afraid that Trump will cause peace to break out. I know after he is elected properity will return.
Another registered republican gun nut in West Palm? The righties really want to get rid of this guy, (Cheney ,Bush and the Narly Neo -Cons) And a pet owner.
the Dems having to drop that kind of external money into a district that includes Johnson county, the Quad Cities, and portions of the Des Moines metro is money they can't spend else where.
After a divorce in 2009, I moved to and lived in the Quad cities for 10 years, until 2018. Johnson County is about 80% Democrat. The QCA is probably 60% Democrat. Every woman I dated was a registered Democrat, including the woman I married. If Democrats are worried about those areas, they are in trouble.
For those who haven’t seen it yet : Shaun Hannity:
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1835404860105343191
Looks more like a classic CIA sniper nest, with bulletproof backpack, black SUV getaway vehicle (only spotted by an alert citizen who got the license plate and was a good ways back to Langley by the time it was pulled over); a calm, cool collected non-panicy suspect pulled out of the vehicle who is refusing to answer cop questions and has demanded an attorney before even being asked what he was accused of doing.
I saw the. On 95! I had no idea what was going g on.
TSOL played in Stuart Friday night. Revolution was in the air. They were old and boring.
According to Hannity, the S S got that information from a drone they were flying.
In any case, it looks like they probably got the guy, very much alive.
https://truthsocial.com/@CitizenFreePress/posts/113143612392498600
The pollsters' rho is a concept of a construct correlated with the deviation of a sample population from their desired outcome. That said, Roe, Roe, Roe your...
Question for Harris: "Your administration put a bullseye on Trump. Should you be held accountable for your actions?"
More details are filtering in. You have to hunt for it, but there is a picture of the rifle leaned against a fence. It is described as “AK-47 style rifle, however its barrel is very long and there is a scope mounted. It looks to me like a Dragunov SVD, which is a Russian-designed semiautomatic sniper rifle chambered in the Russian 7.62x54R cartridge. I understand it to enjoy an excellent reputation for accuracy.
C'mon Bruce! After the lousy gun handling they exhibited in Butler, PA they all need to run out to the range and drilled until they drop from exhaustion!
Bullshit. Trump is hated by millions of people without any one group putting a bullseye on him. He puts the bullseye on his OWN back. Maybe Trump should be held responsible for his own hated filled lunatic rhetoric.
From his social network stuff, the guy was advocating for the US military to be given leaves of absence, so that they could all go and fight in Ukraine. That’s not right wing. That’s a Binden/Harris fiasco/war, likely, I think, partially a result of them bribing the Biden family. So, no, not a right wing gun nut, but a Dem party stalwart.
I stand corrected.
Inga doesn't feel that Harris and Biden should be held accountable for their actions. Noted.
Trump’s mouth has put him in danger. Stop blaming his political opponents for Trump’s own actions.
"own hated filled lunatic rhetoric."
That's funny.
OF COURSE Biden and Harris shouldn’t be held accountable for attempts on Trump’s life. Trump has said FAR worse of his political opponents that actually do put them in danger. When you seriously say Biden and Harris are responsible you sound as nutty as Trump.
Swift's endorsement is beyond awesome and brat. Bobby Kennedy's is....well, not mentioned by the legacy media therefore doesn't exist..
"Stop blaming his political opponents for Trump’s own actions"
Not sure to whom this is directed, but I didn't blame Trump's political opponents for anything, I just want to know if Harris and Biden should be held accountable for their actions. Maybe its directed to someone else.
"When you seriously say Biden and Harris are responsible"
Fact check: I didn't say this.
I'm merely asking if Harris and Biden should be held accountable for their actions the same way and to the same extend Trump was held accountable for his J6 comments.
Then if you don’t agree with this, WHO are you quoting and why? Provide a source for your quote.
Inga (5:32pm): "Trump has said FAR worse of his political opponents that actually do put them in danger."
I can't help being reminded of something Tom Wolfe said ~50 years ago: "The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States, and yet lands only in Europe." Similarly, evil right-wing rhetoric "actually" puts left-wingers in danger, but somehow it's the right-winger that was actually shot, and then shot at.
Gerda, Trump specifically told his followers to go march down to the Capitol and “fight like hell”. Trump instigated the riot and wanted the certification of the election to be stopped. So, YES, Trump Is responsible for Jan. 6th.
The Inga Protocol has been activated! Little Bich Concepts can't be far behind.
I don't know what it is, but it looks to me more like it has a pistol grip buttstock. I'm expecting it's going to turn out to be a polymer stocked Ruger Mini 14, one of the "tactical" versions. Guy had two back packs with ceramic tiles in them which indicates an attempt at improvised body armor. I suspect this guy is probably a real gunstore commando type.
Inga: My apologies. This is just silly wordplay (and I plead guilty to being part of it). I try to avoid this usually, but I fell prey to temptation this time.
BZZZT. Dinky Dick wrong again!
They should have a real debate on something along the lines of, "Resolved, the Treaty of Versailles caused WW II," with one candidate arguing the affirmative and the other the negative. That would tell us which candidate knows more history and is better able to argue on his or her feet. I would be happy to vote for the winner.
Inga said: Trump specifically told his followers to go march down to the Capitol and “fight like hell”. Trump instigated the riot and wanted the certification of the election to be stopped. So, YES, Trump Is responsible for Jan. 6th.
Here is the question: Is Inga a bigger idiot or a bigger liar?
My lifelong Democrat wife thought that Trump was the instigator until I gave her the transcript of Trump's speech. She still hates Trump, but acknowledges that he asked people to protest peacefully and patriotically.
You are a crazy and nasty little liar Inga. Sober up and change your diapers.
Tariff Myths, Debunked
Your one-stop shop for breaking through the tariff fog.
https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/capitolism/tariff-myths-debunked/
But here's the deal. The Republican candidate is a physician and veteran. Because the district is so heavily Democratic, she only won her last race by less that 1 percent. This is amazing. Iowa City and Johnson County are the equivalent of Madison Wisconsin and Dane County. Can you imagine if Madison and Dane County had a Republican Congresswoman? Isn't this something you would want to work hard to defend and keep? But Trump's RNC refuses to put a penny in the race. What a waste.
The Dispatch, huh? Are they the ones that misspelled 'Capitalism'? I won't have an opinion until I hear from The Lincoln Project.
Econ 101 teaches you the simpleton version of econ, before all the complexity and unintended consequences. Believing basic propositions blindly is a prescription for failure. One example, Ivy League economists who screwed up the conversion of the Russian Economy to "Capitalism" in the 90's.
I think more likely, he had the ceramic tiles for a sniper’s nest, as someone else suggested.
What’s going to be interesting is to see whose those 4 shots were. One story is that Secret Service saw a muzzle stick out from a bush, and immediately started shooting at it. He then panicked and ran. Story is that they had multiple shooters set up with rifles on bipods almost immediately. Being an optimist, I hope that’s how it went down. They left a hole in their coverage (or the shooter moved in, after the team working two holes ahead had come through), but acted quickly and decisively like they didn’t in Butler 2 months ago. But, those were mostly DHS agents, pretending to be Secret Service.
The predictive history of degenerate gamblers is still better than that of ABC polls.
Biden wasn't replaced in the proverbial smoke-filled room at the convention, which was the prior norm. He was ousted by a small handful of people with outsized power (e.g., most of the country didn't get to vote for or against Schumer/Pelosi, but they drive the leftist agenda).
"After a divorce in 2009, I moved to and lived in the Quad cities for 10 years, until 2018. Johnson County is about 80% Democrat. The QCA is probably 60% Democrat. "
The problem is that the Quad Cities are all Union Democrat, not BatShit Democrat. Democrats who want industry to survive are different.
“Here is the question: Is Inga a bigger idiot or a bigger liar?”
Good sir, I implore you: Embrace the power of “and”.
"Your one-stop shop for breaking through the tariff fog."
If you believe that there is a "one stop shop" to decide whether tariffs are an appropriate policy, you are pretty dumb. sorry man.
Inga said: Trump’s mouth has put him in danger. Stop blaming his political opponents for Trump’s own actions.
Let's think about this statement for a minute.
Trump understands as much about trade as any man could who doesn’t read and doesn’t listen. He is an economic illiterate of the lowest order.
His last tariffs cost US taxpayers $61 billion to bail out the farmers he drove bankrupt. No thanks.
Peter Navarro is the brains behind Trump’s tariffs-fix-everything policy. As I understand it, Navarro acknowledges the cost of inevitable retaliatory tariffs from the rest of the world, but either argues that the inflation it will bring about is outweighed by the benefits of protectionism (ie protecting US manufacturing base, jobs etc). History suggests otherwise because we have been down this road before in the 1930s. Google Smoot-Hawley tariffs for a sense of what’s in store. The thinking then was that America was too important and its domestic market too huge for the rest of the world to even contemplate retaliating. They were proven wrong by events and if anything America is less dominant of a force now than it was in the 1930s. Retaliation brings about global recession. Simple as that.
As for Navarro’s obsession with levelling the playing field with China, I suggest this article from the Cato Institute that refutes Navarro’s thesis point by point. For the uninitiated, the Cato Institute are a GOP bastion of libertarianism and not Democrats.
https://www.cato.org/regulation/fall-2018/peter-navarros-conversion#the-fairness-argument
Sounds like Inga thinks it's okay to kill people who say things you don't like.
Rich thinks a new name to hide behind will add gravitas and credence to his foolishness. Inga is okay with killing President Trump. It is his fault. People such as Inga that say such things should be........
“His last tariffs cost US taxpayers $61 billion to bail out the farmers he drove bankrupt. No thanks.”
How, does this person believe that this is true? Demophiles just lie in your face.
Every single election year the polls skew towards the Democrat in September by at least 10 points.
They will always come back to reality by the end of October.
Kamala Harris and NYC Mayor Eric Adams are eerily similar. And neither can stop laughing at extremely inaplropriate times. Either they are of the same breed of dolt, or I smell a political strategist. Or both.
A bill which won't get through the House.
All the polls that are sharing their internals are assuming a likely voter ration of 7D 5R 5I. Since that would represent a dramatic shift in Presidential voting patterns, I am not buying what they are selling.
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