And we're all his friends at FiveThirtyEight, here.
The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, down from a peak of 71 percent last month.... If a friend asked me to characterize the Senate race, I’d say “it’s pretty fucking close”...
[A]s of Thursday afternoon, Republicans realized a slight lead (of 0.1 percentage points) in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot average for the first time since Aug. 2.... But the tied generic ballot overstates the case for Democrats. That’s because our polling average takes generic ballot polls as they come, which are a combination of polls of likely voters, registered voters and all adults....
[M]y mental model is slightly more favorable to the GOP than the FiveThirtyEight forecast itself. It’s worth noting, though, that some of the states where people had been most concerned about the polls being wrong, such as Wisconsin and Ohio, have shown a shift toward the GOP in recent weeks.
But the main reason why I think of the race for control of the Senate as a toss-up — rather than slightly favoring Democrats — is because there’s been steady movement toward the GOP in our model over the past few weeks.... [T]he forecast has moved in a predictable-seeming way, with a long, slow and steady climb toward Democrats over the summer, and now a consistent shift back toward Republicans....
Polls can sometimes change for reasons that don’t reflect the underlying reality of the race, such as because of partisan nonresponse bias or pollster herding....
Republicans don’t have any sure-fire pickups; Nevada is the most likely, and even there, GOP chances are only 53 percent, according to our forecast. Meanwhile, Democrat John Fetterman is still ahead in polls of Pennsylvania, although his margin over Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed. The model is likely to be quite sensitive to new polling in Pennsylvania going forward. If Democrats gain a seat there, meaning that the GOP would need to flip two Democratic-held seats to take the chamber, that starts to become a tall order. Nevada, sure, but I’m not sure Republicans would want to count on Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona....
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Nate Silver says that standard polling shows the GOP ahead by.1% and shows a steady move toward the GOP. But he knows that standard polling undercounts the GOP by at least 5%. Hmm. I wonder where his actual bets are right now.
If the polls are close, the Rs still won't be able to overcome the cheating...
So Nate is saying "we still have a chance!"
And normally, I'd be laughing at him. But look, this is 2022, and the Democrats stole the last election and nothing at all happened to them.
Why on earth wouldn't they do that now? The Democrat leadership is not acting at all worried, despite the universal poll movement away from them.
Is that because they don't care, and will manufacture enough votes to win all over? I mean, if they get caught, so what? Who is going to prosecute or overturn it? Joe Biden and Garland? Please!
I just don't see how there is any possibility of a fair election here.
Pessimism means never being disappointed.
That may be the most "I'm totally mathematical but I have a mental model that prefers democrats but acknowledges republicans are gaining" tortured paragraph I've ever seen.
I don't want republicans to win, I want democrats to lose. I think the fact that despite economic realities, war realities, geopolitical realities, border/immigration realities, transportation realities, supply chain realities....basically despite ALL OF REALITY....republicans don't have a rock solid chance of gaining ground.
That's because they suck at politicking and still, to this day, can't enunciate clearly their policy rationales.
Nate Silver: "...pretty f--- close."
Usually that "f" word is there to emphasize whatever is "close." Kind of a verbal throwaway. But here I think it has more meaning: namely, it points to the act that the Democrats will have to perform openly on the voters if the race is close. If they had a big lead, they wouldn't need to F the vote (and thus the voters). But in a close-run thing, they will need to do a lot of F'ing, and in a hurry, and thus probably sloppily and visibly. And voters may notice, and not like it. Why, they might mistakenly conclude that their votes had been denied their proper weight.
There's that "denier" word again. Sorry.
The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate
Just reading this reminds me of the 538 forecast for Hillary winning the Presidency. Whether Nate's your friend or not, I wouldn't take advice from him. I'm hearing from other sources the toss-up is the over-under on Republicans taking 52 seats.
" The model is likely to be quite sensitive to new polling in Pennsylvania going forward."
LOL
Still feeding the dem faithful their daily Cope & Hope message while setting up for the last minute "polling" result "changes" that will align 538 more with reality so that they can claim that they "accurately" called the race at the very end....while every day leading up to election day had their messaging tailored perfectly for democratical messaging.
538 aren't pollsters. They are errand boys.
The Republican-majority House of Representatives will be able to impeach President Biden.
Although the Senate will have a Republican majority too, at least five Democrat Senators will have to vote with the Republicans to remove Biden from his office.
The Republicans in Congress should keep trying. If they cannot remove Biden on their first attempt, they should impeach him every six months or so until enough Democrat Senators add their votes to the effort to remove him.
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Meanwhile, Vice President Harris must be removed from her office before Biden is removed. Study the historical case of Vice President Spiro Agnew.
Word salad. What he means is the best case scenario for the Dems now is they come out still at 50 Senators.
Per Legal Insurrection Obama has been deployed to shore up Nevada. In Ohio Tim Ryan is complaining the Dem party isn't supporting him.
Taken all together, it appears the Dems have conceded that every GOP incumbent is going to win, that the Senate seats in MO, OK, NC, and AL are going to stay red, and that they are going to lose two of the three in OH (Ryan v Vance), PA (Fetterman v Oz), and GA (Warnock v Walker). They have to hold NV to hope to stay even with a pickup elsewhere if the GOP goes 3 for 3 or Masters wins in AZ. If they were winning in OH, PA, or GA they wouldn't need to worry about NV flipping.
I used to be a fan of Nate Silver's analysis, but over the last 10 years or so, there's probably no one person who's done more to undermine the reputation of polling than him. First, he won't stand by any prediction except his last one, so everything he says before election eve is just noise. And then, actually, he doesn't stand by his last one either--he always gives a percentage prediction, so if the final results go against him, well, hey, he told there was a chance of that outcome.
My prediction is Republicans are headed for a blowout victory in the Senate as well as the House. I'd be surprised if its anything less than 53R-47D in the Senate. Johnson already has it nailed. NV likely R. I cannot imagine PA will stick with Fettermann given his incoherence, which outdoes even Biden's. In the House, for the fun of it, I say it will be 245R-190D, just to be cautious. Go ahead, laugh. We'll see.
It always amazes me now how all these pollsters STILL simply ignore the vast and growing hidden Republican leaning voters. They simply do not get, I imagine, how low so many of the deplorables are lying. The cancellation-ridicule atmosphere has only gotten much worse since 2020, when only Trump was Hitler. Now the MAGA Nazi meme is everywhere. As voting begins, these beleaguered citizens are emerging, which is why there already is very rapid movement even in most polls toward Republicans -- and there are still two weeks plus to go.
This morning when I visited Twitter, the first thing that appeared was the new Real Clear Politics "generic" Congressional Vote. Senate prediction? 53 GOP - 47 Dem.
Governor races are also looking good - if you are a Republican.
This isn't Red Wave. It's Red Tsnumami which means at least one wild card (WA or CO) might also be swept in.
Nate’s whistling past the graveyard….
I'd like to see Masters oust Kelly, "California's third Senator." So far, Kelly whose only qualification is that his wife was shot by a nut, has acquired $71 million. Most of that from California and other big donors out of state. The negative ad campaign by Kelly began last summer. Then Kelly started showing fake Republicans in his few positive ads.
Masters sounds well qualified but got off to a slow start.
Phoenix is getting "Californicated" and is where Kelly's support comes from. Also where the vote fraud was committed in 2020.
Nate Silver isn't exactly the Gold standard of forecasting is he?
The bottom line is no one knows about the close Senate races and who will win Polling is often spotty in places like Utah or GA, people aren't answering the phone calls from pollsters, and then there's the Democrat cheat factor and the unknown motivation of Independents. Are the sainted "Moderates" going to vote R because of inflation and gas prices, or will they just be moderate about the whole thing?
Besides, if the R's gain control of the Senate what does it really matter. As long you have Mitch in charge, and RINO's like Mittens, Collins, and Lisa Murky, nothing can be done, except cutting bad deals. Its more important that the House goes R. with an Republcian House we can stop all the crap that Biden and Senate want to pass.
Every prognosticator gets his comeuppances sooner or later, else we'd know the future just by trusting them.
By friends Silver means discouraged Democrats who are inclined to stay home and drink seven bottles of chardonnay before the polls close.
His pals are all Democrat loyalists and tru-beeleevers
Surprising Senate incumbents who are not really pulling away:
1. Grassley, Iowa (R): Very few polls, but the Des Moines Register made him +8 in July, +3 in October.
2. Kaus keeps pointing out Lee, UT (R): polls all by one agency, make Lee +5, but he is only at 41 or 42%, low for an incumbent, with 12% saying they are undecided.
3. Blumenthal, CT (D): very few polls, but the only one in Oct shows Blumenthal +5 as opposed to +13 by a different agency in Sept. RCP simply averages to get +9.
4. Murray, WA (D): here it is Trafalgar, which has a record of being more correct because of capturing "Trumpist" vote, vs. three other polls. The other three are Murray +8, +9, and +12, one of them in Oct; Trafalgar in late Sept. said +2.
5. I see what Silver means about AZ. GA: of six polls in Oct, the only one that gives Warnock more then +3 is Quinnipiac at +7; the same agency said Warnock +10 in June, and +6 in Sept. Trafalgar in a recent poll says Warnock +1. Now Warnock turns out to be a slum landlord, using his church as a cover.
50/50 is probably a good bet, Kamala (alas) breaking a tie.
"Democrat John Fetterman is still ahead in polls of Pennsylvania."
I don't want to hear from any Dem about any incompetent, mentally challenged GOPers ever again.
By the way, Althouse, do you approve of the increasing gratuitous use of the f-word in public discourse, where it does not serve any obvious rhetorical purpose other than to expose the crude vulgarity of the speaker?
If it weren’t for dopey celebrity candidates, Republicans would be headed to a 55-seat majority. Given the pathetic collapse of Biden and the Democratic Party, the fact that the Senate is even close for Republicans is political malpractice.
For the record, Christine O'Donnell says she is not a witch.
The betting markets are 65/35 Republicans and climbing. Nate is slowly herding so that by Election Day he can claim to be right. Rs will win 53-55 Senate seats, the House with 240-260, pick up key governors spots in Michigan and New York, and maybe I’m still underestimating.
Not good enough Nate. There’s more like a 70% chance they LOSE it.
At this point, Silver and other pollsters and forecasters are trying to claw back some credibility after their summer psyop of Democrat approval. It's a tricky rope to cross because if they swing to the likely GOP win, they'll get eaten by the Left.
Polling, et al, is a dead letter. No one in their right mind tells a stranger their political opinion. Might be an honest pollster, but then their canvassers often have an agenda to create lists of their enemies. And that call could always just be some Leftist op, or maybe DOJ op, looking to find those with unapproved of opinions.
Got popcorn.
This afternoon I saw part of a Monmouth poll that tells me Nate Silver is wrong. The poll shows the Republicans with a 35 point margin over Democrats among parents. This is not just white parents, or even white and Asian parents.* This is all parents. That’s an amazing number, and even if the true number is only half that, it’s huge.
I’ve been watching the Democrats relative to K-12 education, and it has struck me that they did not learn the lesson of Loudoun County in last year’s state elections. Loudoun County, Virginia, is partly rural but mostly a bedroom community for federal workers. In 2020 Joe Biden won the county by 85,000 votes. Then the Loudoun County School Board got heavy into CRT, prosecuted a man for protesting his daughter’s rape in a girls’ school rest room by a boy in a dress, and treated protesting parents as terrorists. In 2021 Glenn Youngkin lost Loudoun County to Terry McAuliffe, but by 15,000 votes. And Youngkin won the state by 70,000. Parents are dangerous adversaries; as a general rule men and women will fight harder for their children than they will for themselves.
__________
* Note that the news media seem to regard Asians not merely as a form of white, but as some “ultra” form of white.
Pollsters are scrambling to narrow the gap from the nonsense polls all summer, to the reality that has changed little in the last 3 to 4 months.
Go back just three weeks with individual Dems leading by margins, exceeding he margin of error rate, and try to mesh that with Republicans winning those races by 10 points.
Pollsters have already lost most of their respect, this election may sink a good many of them.
The truth the media never mentions. Polls are commissioned to deliver a result. That result is almost always to create, promote, maintain a narrative. A narrative the people commissioning the poll tell the pollsters they want.
The exception, Politicians internal polls. Those polls, the buyers want the hard facts.
Silver is a young thing and has not left his mother. That rather cryptic beginning is a reminder that the current batch of political prognosticators were still in knickers the last time inflation was the dominant factor in an election. The year was 1980 and the pollsters had Carter and the Democrats prevailing until the final week. Final result: Reagan in a landslide and the Republicans gained 12, countem - 12, Senate seats.
You had to be around then to know the mood - the same mood I am sensing now. Inflation is the ultimate buzzkiller. Even if you turn superstar you'll barely break even. All else pales in significance. There is only one factor in this election - inflation.
Nate Silver knows the 2020 voter fraud in AZ, PA, WI, GA, and MI was real. Four of the five have tight Senate races. I'd bet on it too. Unless its overwhelming on election day to outweigh absentee voter fraud...I'm expecting the same purple states to go blue.
Nate Silver is a douchebag who gets REAL election predictions wrong...like the last real one we had in 2016. The 2016 surprise tells you it was real. The fake Russian collusion afterward tells you even more.
I don't see any Democrat acting like they are going to lose any type of power. The American electorate is now defined by fear and apathy. It's a strange apathy because at the same time it's hostile.
Plus, Mitch McConnell and Utah Senator Pierre Delecto don't want GOP control of the Senate. Senator Delecto has even refused to endorse his fellow Utah GOP Senator Mike Lee who is facing "independent" deep stater Evan McMuffin. McMuffin is a darling of the Bill Kristol / Charlie Sykes clan.
Yeah. I'm expecting the worst. I'm not and election denier. I'm just a 2022 "election" realist.
This is a reason why early voting has to be eliminated or reduced to two days before the election.
Gotta be kidding with this loser.
Earnest Prole: "If it weren’t for dopey celebrity candidates, Republicans would be headed to a 55-seat majority. Given the pathetic collapse of Biden and the Democratic Party, the fact that the Senate is even close for Republicans is political malpractice."
Earnest Prole is the Steve Schmidt of Pierre Delecto's of Althouse blog.
Hey Prole, any comment on McConnell spending $9M on attack ads against the republican candidate in Alaska? On Mittens refusing to endorse Mike Lee?
Mike Lee!! Supposedly precisely the sort of candidate a nice, middle of the road fellow such as yourself is supposed to respect.
I suspect not. You wouldn't want to be seen rubbing elbows with the deplorables.
I wonder if Mitch McConnell will be watching the Senate returns on election night from Schumer's office? Given they have the same objectives, it makes sense.
One of the races the GOPe is absolutely bonkers-crazy to throw to the dems is PA Governor.
The GOPe-ers are positively frantic at the thought the Republican might win.
Ask yourself why that might be.....
He and the other democrat pollsters have tried like heck to given democrats hope and discourage republicans, but they have to face reality and start to issue accurate polls the closer we get to electon day, so they can say, "See, were were right!" Conveniently ignoring the weeks and months before when they were not only wrong, but writing fiction.
Whaddya know! Slippery Mitch McConnell has just pulled funding out of New Hampshire right at the very moment Republican Candidate Don Bolduc is pulling close to Mitch McConnells very very very very good friend, far left Democratical Senator Maggie Hassan.
That's a $5.6M hit to the Bolduc campaign. Sabotage by Mitch McConnell because, well, does it even need to be said? McConnell is undermining every one of these insurgent republican candidates that are poised to knock off democraticals...the very democraticals that China Mitch wants to save.
Gee, what a wonderfully collegial thing for McConnell to do for his democratical pals, wouldn't you say Earnest Prole?
And down in GA you can bet Raffensberger and his staff full of DNC-aligned schmucks, like Sperling, are just aching to get their hands on more of Zuckerberg's millions for election "fortifying", just like they did in 2020.
Has there ever, in history, anywhere in the world, where the leadership of a political party worked so hard to ensure the victory of their opponents as the GOPe-ers have over the last 50 years?
Blogger Christopher B said...
"...In Ohio Tim Ryan is complaining the Dem party isn't supporting him."
Well Tim, you been trying to run away from your Democratic voting record since the primary, why would they support you now. Unfortunately for you, the voters know you will go from being Pelosi's poodle in the House to being Warren's poodle in the Senate, so most Ohio voters will hold their nose and vote for Vance.
Hey Prole, any comment on Mittens refusing to endorse Mike Lee?
A Republican incapable of prevailing in Utah (!) under his own power is not going to benefit from the endorsement of the male Liz Cheney.
CT has moved from safe to lean, and that's good news for Democrats going 50/50? BWAHHAHAHAHA
Where would we be without an expert to tell us the elections will be close. Can I get paid for making that prediction?
Prole: "A Republican incapable of prevailing in Utah (!) under his own power..."
So, the answer is no.
Beloved (by the Ds) unkempt man-boy geeenius Nate Silver is a classic. I miss Rush, who one said, "I’m like Nate Silver; I have no idea what’s gonna happen. The only difference between Nate Silver and me is that I make no pretense of knowing what’s gonna happen."
[A]s of Thursday afternoon, Republicans realized a slight lead (of 0.1 percentage points) in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot average for the first time since Aug. 2.... But the tied generic ballot overstates the case for Democrats. That’s because our polling average takes generic ballot polls as they come, which are a combination of polls of likely voters, registered voters and all adults....
In a "registered voter" "generic ballot" poll, D+4 == "Tie"
The fact that they're including ANY "all adults" polls, less than a month before the election, shows a fundamental dishonesty that is actually quite shocking.
Because that's a "I dont' care if everyone knows we're corrupt" level of dishonesty
Republicans don’t have any sure-fire pickups; Nevada is the most likely, and even there, GOP chances are only 53 percent, according to our forecast.
Your forecast is shit. NV is a solid pickup
Meanwhile, Democrat John Fetterman is still ahead in polls of Pennsylvania
In 2020 the final results was D+1.2 in the Presidential race, with all the dishoensty the Dems were allowed to pull
3 weeks out it was D+5 in the polls, IIRC. So move everything 4 points to the Right
I’m not sure Republicans would want to count on Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona....
Why not? They're both going to win.
Right now, the Democrats need to worry about NH, CO, and WA. There's over 50% chance of winning each of them, but the fact that they are even possibles (and the GOP does have a good shot in all 3) is what should be terrifying the Left
Joe Smith said...
If the polls are close, the Rs still won't be able to overcome the cheating...
The polls are factoring in all the Democrats cheating. If they're close, then the reality is "not close without major cheating by the Dems"
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