October 21, 2016

Much less spending on TV ads in this presidential race than in '12 and '08.

Look at this graph from the NYT:



The article is "Trump Has Spent a Fraction of What Clinton Has on Ads," concentrating on the difference between the 2 current candidates, but I'm struck by the difference between the present and the recent past.

59 comments:

Nonapod said...

Among other problems, we take way too long and spend way too much money choosing a President.

Bob Ellison said...

In the year 2020, we will see Google prosecuted by the FEC for letting YouTube ads go online for free.

AprilApple said...

More proof that Trump doesn't really want to win. He makes a huge cash haul, does not spend any of it trying to win.

Carol said...

I hope Trump isn't hoarding until the last few days. Some people still don't get how early a lot of us vote. Especially this year, ya just want to get it over with.

Paddy O said...

Who is this Trump fellow everyone is talking about?

Curious George said...

"Carol said...
I hope Trump isn't hoarding until the last few days. Some people still don't get how early a lot of us vote. Especially this year, ya just want to get it over with."

The early voters are not undecideds.

Howard said...

I blame Citizens United

Laslo Spatula said...

"Some people still don't get how early a lot of us vote."

I think most people who vote early are firm in who they want -- they are not going to be swayed by television ads.

The target for the ads is not just the last-minute deciders but getting the people who would vote for you to actually get out and do it. The crescendo is needed for that push.

I am Laslo.

chickelit said...

Trump has turned campaign spending frugality into a virtue. This tacitly speaks to people's concerns about Citizen United and makes Hillary's obsession with that case look like vengeance.

chickelit said...

[insert Howard's 9:18 comment just before mine]

Paddy O said...

It happened again last evening, a sign of my age. I was watching Brooklyn Nine-Nine, relaxing after being on planes or in airports for 8 hours. It was recorded by my Tablo DVR. Being tired, and mildly distracted, I didn't even notice that the show had paused and commercials were playing. One, two, then half way through the third one I remembered I could fast forward. So I did. Weird. A throwback to back when commercials were a thing to sit through. For about 75 seconds it was like I was back in the 20th century.

By the by, anyone watch the new Luke Cage on Netflix?

Bill Peschel said...

"More proof that Trump doesn't really want to win. He makes a huge cash haul, does not spend any of it trying to win."

Gee, and Donald's still even with Crooked Hillary.

Maybe he knows how to spend his money better.

And maybe he's hurting the networks with his limited ad buys.

AprilApple said...

Most low information Americans have no idea what Citizens United is all about. Obama and Hillary told them it's about "dark money" and that's as far as they go with it.

Sebastian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AprilApple said...

Bill P - Look at the state polls. Nightmare.

Sebastian said...

"Who is this Trump fellow everyone is talking about?"

What's this TV they're talking about?

Paddy O said...

My worry about dishwashing soap is that there are multiple brands telling me they are the best I should buy. A friendly family comes on, celebrating life, but with that nagging problem of not-quite-clean dishes interupting playing with the dog and laughing on the couch together. I want to laugh on the couch together.

But if all the dish detergents do that, why does this family have problems with not-quite-clean dishes. I can't believe this is possible, not on television today, but is one of the products exaggerating? Or are the bad products not advertising? I'm very confused!

Jeff Gee said...

Paddy O: By the by, anyone watch the new Luke Cage on Netflix?

I was going to, but I heard Jessica Jones doesn't even make a cameo appearance. WTF??

rehajm said...

Trump's free media strategy is outpacing Clinton 2:1 in free media time.

With Trump spending far less on ad buys Hillary can cut back too and still saturate.

Effectiveness of TV ads is down from commercial skipping tech and alternative viewing platforms.

chickelit said...

AprilApple said...Most low information Americans have no idea what Citizens United is all about. Obama and Hillary told them it's about "dark money" and that's as far as they go with it.

I agree, April.

Steve M. Galbraith said...

If this was reversed we'd be inundated by stories in the media about how Trump is "buying the election" and how we need to limit campaign ads.

And how democracy is being hijacked. When you argue that our political system is being stolen from a leftist point of view that's okay.

You know this. I know this. Everyone knows this.

Darrell said...

Trump has shown that people are sick of political ads and you don't need them to win. Romney lost votes by pestering people as they tried to watch their shows. Hillary, unfortunately, is helped by following the Trump lead.

chrisnavin.com said...

Paddy,

Accept the power of Palmolive into your life. Dawn most certainly means eternal damnation.

Use coupons.

AprilApple said...

In my state, Michael Bennett(D-liar) has been running ads all over the place since spring. He is up 18 points.

AprilApple said...

I think we want to tell ourselves all sorts of nonsense in the hope that Trump, the cool outsider, is breaking all the conventional rules.

I'd rather win.

Darrell said...

He is up 18 points.

Because the lyin' media controls the polls. Democrats need to see a big lead so that they can pile on. If he were behind, they'd stay home. Voting for a loser makes them feel like losers.

Paddy O said...

From the chart, it looks like Romney ran a lot more ads.

I'd rather both candidates lose, truth be told, but that's not the option. What is interesting is how Trump is indeed pursuing a different approach. It's a risk.

But it's also a holdover from the primaries where he didn't need to run ads. The media was on his side then, and covered him extensively.

There's definitely a generational gap with advertising, and that might be where Trump is missing the mark.

Nothing I say matters and is worth anything. I can't believe that the people would nominate either of these two, so clearly I'm about as out of tune with the broad public as is possible.

John said...

Blogger Carol said...

Some people still don't get how early a lot of us vote.

the way elections are run in most of the upper 50 is absolute shit. No wonder turnout is so low. What surprises me is that it is as high as it is. If I lived in the upper 50, I doubt I would even register.

Here is how it should be done:

1) Govt issued voting ID card that can only be used for voting. Getting the card is about as hard as getting a drivers license and is free. The card lasts forever or until you move. Or the govt decides to upgrade to a more secure card. I'm on my 3rd card since I originally registered in 1976.

2) All voting to take place in person, at polls, on election day. With very few exceptions. If you don't care enough to go to the polls on election day, you should not be allowed to vote. (With a few exceptions)

3) Many polling places so the people voting have a good chance of being personally known to the poll attendants.

4) Sign in and verification against a list. Not on the list for some reason? You can still vote but your vote is set aside in a sealed envelope until the deiscrpancy is resolved.

5) Finger checked for flourescent ink.

6) Finger dipped in ink

7) Finger checked again to make sure the ink got on the finger

8) Paper ballot issued

9) Ballot marked with pencil inside a closed booth

10) Ballot deposited in an urn.

Sounds complex but it normally takes me 10-15 minutes to vote, including finding a parking space, standing in line and gossiping with neighbors after.

We not only never have election fraud in our state elections, we don't even have any of the "vote early, vote often", "dead voter" etc jokes that don't seem to upset anyone in the upper 50.

We also have 70-80% turnout. That is not of registered voters, that is of everyone over 18 because we have damn few people who are not registered.

Buwa has talked about elections in the Philipines and I have the impression it is similar. Perhaps you could elaborate?

John Henry

chrisnavin.com said...

Another take: Many important parts of the culture and institutions have already been lost, or are still better maintained through actions, not words, and decency, not sinking to the level of the organized hatreds. The choice of Trump was a release of anger at realization of this potential fact..

There is still the problem of ideologues and unscrupulous opportunists taking the most advantage, further co-opting and corrupting the laws, and for profound loss of liberties in the meantime.

Static Ping said...

You notice that huge bulge in Romney's spending at the end. I remember that. They had more money on hand than they could conceivably spend in the swing states and started dumping ad money in purple-ish places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the last minute. Obviously, it didn't work.

What I found curious about the election ads this year is I have seen more for some prescription drug proposition in California than for the actual Presidential election. I don't live anywhere near California. Apparently, someone is paying for national advertisements for for a state issue. Either that or the cable company is routing me the wrong ads.

Sydney said...

I wonder what the demographic break down is between people who watch traditional television with advertisements and those who watch on-demand television without advertisements.

Sydney said...

Traditional TV viewing trends by age. Looks like middle age to elderly still consume a lot of traditional TV. But do political ads matter anymore?

Wilbur said...

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AprilApple said...

If the MSM educated the public on the truth about Citizens United, the truth would be common knowledge.

The MSM is an arm of the democrat party. So, lies about Citizens United are the baseline.


John said...

I will not be voting this year. I have to be in Chicago during election week to attend PackExpo. (Anyone here going?)

Since this is a "voluntary" trip, I am not eligible for a local absentee ballot.

However, after hearing Madonna's offer yesterday, I may just vote in Chicago for Crooked Hilary.

I figure she is going to win Chicago anyway and voting for her would be a small price to pay for getting a blowjob from Madonna. ("and I swallow!")

I suspect Laslo is involved somehow.

Did anyone catch Kirby's reference to it being someone's "Turn in the barrel" last week at the State Dept press briefing? Sounds like Madonna is offering to take her "turn in the barrel"

I found Kirby's use of that homophobic and disgusting "turn in the barrel" punchline absolutely appalling. OK in a private setting, perhaps, though much worse than Trump's pussy grabbing comment. But in an official, public, setting? Broadcast to the world?

Totally unacceptable.

John Henry

John said...

OpenID chrisnavin.com said...

Accept the power of Palmolive into your life. Dawn most certainly means eternal damnation.

DAWN = Dynamic Achievers World Network

John Henry


Big Mike said...

Here's what I'd like to see. Not just paper ballots, but a place on the ballot for "None of the above." And if none of the above wins a plurality then the election is run over again six weeks later and none of the candidates are allowed to ever run for that office ever again.

Darrell said...

I'd rather get a hug from Ann Coulter than get a BJ from Madonna.

buwaya puti said...

John,
Very much like that, including the ink, plus also permanently constituted boards of national election inspectors, normally not assigned to their home province, a national system of vote tallying and audit, etc.
The vote comes in very fast, considering the communication difficulties.
They use paper ballots machine-scanned.
The most critical factors are voter rolls I think, plus voter IDs.
Turnout is also very high, 81% this year.

The whole thing can be corrupted of course, but for the most part this will require the national organization to be compromised, as it was in Marcos' day.

Corruption attempts are, that I know of, at a low level. One interesting one is to bribe or pressure likely opponents voters to have their fingers inked so they can't vote.

holdfast said...

The thing is, ads are used to "introduce" the candidates to the public - before they ran for office Obama, Romney, even McCain, were relatively unknown to the American public. HRC and Trump are about as well-known as any person could be. Not only are they known, they are pretty well-defined. And HRC has the MSM to run her smears, so no need for attack ads.

Mary E. Glynn said...

I just hate the use of graphics that essentially show butt plugs.

(I think Andrew Sullivan pioneered this graphic-info art form...)

chickelit said...

Butt plugs -- lol!

John said...

Blogger buwaya puti said...

province, a national system of vote tallying and audit, etc.

Our votes are counted locally in the polling place and results transmitted to the State Election Commission in San Juan which counts them again. Even if someone corrupted the state count, it would become obvious as each polling place knows what they sent in. Since all three parties are involved at all levels, we could count on someone making a stink. With thousands of polling places, even if a few were corrupted, it would not make much difference.

My town of 29,000 has about 5 polling places. Within each, voters are divided up into separate classrooms where the whole process takes place. For example A-D might vote in one classroom, E-G in another and so on. Each group is tallied separately, by reps from all 3 [parties, supervised by a state official.

We get results fast too. Polls are open 9AM-2PM and we normally start seeing results out of the State count by 5-6PM.

I might add that honest elections are no guarantee of honest or even good politicians. Ours are as crappy as anywhere, generally. But we get our assholes and shitheads honestly.

John Henry

Carol said...

I think most people who vote early are firm in who they want -- they are not going to be swayed by television ads.

Actually I decided on the way to the polls. Was planning to vote straight ticket downballot otherwise.

My state still uses paper ballots and they ask for photo ID. Pretty old school, except that the Dems rammed through election-day registration. This turned into such a hassle for the elections office that they really encourage early (absentee) voting now just to reduce the last minute volume. It's an entitlement now. We'll never get rid of it, because racist undemocratic etc.

Don't let it happen in your state!

buwaya puti said...

Exactly the same in the Phils, classrooms in the public schools are almost universally the local polling places.

Ditto re audits of tallies, etc.

Balfegor said...

Re: Althouse:

I'm struck by the difference between the present and the recent past.

Striking, yes . . . and good, no? Although I suppose from the perspective of the media it's kind of a disaster. Obama's 2008 campaign was like manna from heaven for them, with its gigantic and unprecedented media spend. If Trump were to succeed with his low spending strategy, they'd be in a lot of trouble.

eric said...

Blogger Darrell said...
I'd rather get a hug from Ann Coulter than get a BJ from Madonna.


My wife wouldn't let me get close enough to Ann Coulter to hug her. She knows I've got a thing for her. Never should have opened my big fat mouth.

eric said...

Blogger Carol said...
I think most people who vote early are firm in who they want -- they are not going to be swayed by television ads.

Actually I decided on the way to the polls. Was planning to vote straight ticket downballot otherwise.


What did you decide? Don't leave us in suspense!

chickelit said...

OK, serious question about the presentation of data here: What, exactly is plotted on the y (vertical) axis? It can't be dollars spent because the upper and lower amounts would cancel each other. I suspect that the real dollar amount is plotted on the y-axis and it is just reflected through the base line for dramatic effect. This is journalistic malpractice -- getting artsy with data. By analogy, the infamous hockey stick plot would have looked t-shaped.

damikesc said...

I love this development.

Mainly because it hurts the media.

A lot.

Fuck 'em.

1) Govt issued voting ID card that can only be used for voting. Getting the card is about as hard as getting a drivers license and is free. The card lasts forever or until you move. Or the govt decides to upgrade to a more secure card. I'm on my 3rd card since I originally registered in 1976.

Hate the idea of a government ID, but it seems to be the best option. Force you to swipe it when you enter a voting booth or the vote won't count. And you must present proof of citizenship (birth certificate OR your naturalization papers) to get the ID. If you're one of those poor folks who can't get an ID for any reason, you might want to find a way to make it happen. And if a clerk offers a card to a person whose documents on file aren't legit, they are PERSONALLY fined $1,000. Make it hurt to turn away from fraud.

2) All voting to take place in person, at polls, on election day. With very few exceptions. If you don't care enough to go to the polls on election day, you should not be allowed to vote. (With a few exceptions)

I'd say deployment or you have definitive proof (some form of insurance case information) of a debilitating injury. If your injury isn't enough to qualify for SS disability or your any form of worker's comp/short-term disability, then you need to get up and vote.

Also, you don't get any help to vote. At all. Nobody can assist you. If you cannot read, that is your problem.

3) Many polling places so the people voting have a good chance of being personally known to the poll attendants.

4) Sign in and verification against a list. Not on the list for some reason? You can still vote but your vote is set aside in a sealed envelope until the deiscrpancy is resolved.

5) Finger checked for flourescent ink.

6) Finger dipped in ink

7) Finger checked again to make sure the ink got on the finger

8) Paper ballot issued

9) Ballot marked with pencil inside a closed booth

10) Ballot deposited in an urn.


A required card swipe before a paper ballot is generated would make a lot of this redundant. And if somebody has an ID that is not theirs and votes, they are guilty of fraud. No option to defend. Your vote is tossed and you're barred from voting permanently.

holdfast said...

While Canada certainly has issues in its choice of politicians (cough, Justin Zoolander, cough), the election process always seemed simple and clean. It helps that there's a single agency which controls the list, so it's a lot harder to be registered in two places. After you move, if there's an election coming up you need to register in your new Riding (district) with your new address. Voting is by paper ballot, using a pencil, and counting is by hand with scrutineers of from all major parties present (or allowed to be present, I doubt the Bloc Quebecois sends scrutineers to the Rest of Canada where they have no candidates).

I understand the Federalism issue in the US, but the current patchwork of systems is a mess. I also understand the fear of a large Federal agency which would be captured by the Dems/Permanent Bureaucracy.

richardsson said...

Obama was the gift that postponed the demise of network television news. He was like the elegant architectural facade on a termite infested building. The reality is network television news has been losing audience since the 90's. When the NBC Dateline Show staged pickup truck explosions, the gotchamentary programs began falling into disrepute. When all the network news operations circled the wagons in protecting Dan Rather from his deserved fate, it was over. His sleazy attempt to bring down George W with obvious bullshit and the attempts at defense of this bonehead program were insulting: Microsoft Word on an IBM Selectric ball, anyone? Trump understands that the voters who might vote for him are not likely to be avid network news viewers. So the ad money would be wasted. The decline in spending for Clinton, I'm guessing, is similar to the joke about having a great face for radio. Unless there is a last minute blitz, they are keeping her under wraps with hopes she can stumble over the finish line.

rehajm said...

I suspect that the real dollar amount is plotted on the y-axis and it is just reflected through the base line for dramatic effect.

I think this is it. The graph is shit and constructed by someone inexperienced in representing quantitative data, no doubt. I'm thinking Journalism major with a minor concentration in Art/Woodturning.

John said...

Blogger damikesc said...

Hate the idea of a government ID, but it seems to be the best option.

Agree, but who else could issue it? It does not identify party. There is no place in govt records that party affiliation is collected. It also cannot be used for any other purpose. If I go to the bank to cash a check, they can't legally accept it as ID. If I go to get a drivers license, they can't accept it as ID. If I try to fly, even though it is a govt issued ID, TSA will not accept it.

Absent a single, uniform, ID card, issued by a single agency, you leave the individual poll workers deciding what ID to accept.

Force you to swipe it when you enter a voting booth or the vote won't count.

Now it is used to look up your name, alphabetically, on a paper voter roll. If it was electronic it could be hacked. It does have barcodes but I am not sure why. I've never seen them scanned.

And you must present proof of citizenship (birth certificate OR your naturalization papers) to get the ID. it has been so long since I got my current card that I forget the process. I am sure I had to prove citizenship, identity and residence. Like I do with my driver's license.

I'd say deployment or you have definitive proof (some form of insurance case information) of a debilitating injury.

Yes, military serving off island, students studying off island get absentee ballots. Some others that have legal requirements to be off island can get them. Since I choose (for work) to be off island, I am not eligible.

Police, fire, emergency and other services that will need to be available election day get to vote before they start their shifts. Don't know the exact process but it is not more than 12 or so hours before normal polling.

In 2012 my mother in law, then about 92 and very infirm had some special provision so she didn't have to go to the poll. She still didn't vote early, she voted that Tuesday.

Also, you don't get any help to vote.

Awww... wait a minute! In 2008 my granddaughter, then 5, helped me. She went into the booth with her, I gave her the pencil and told her to pick a name from each column.

A required card swipe before a paper ballot is generated would make a lot of this redundant.

Nope. A card swipe is electronic and can be hacked or fiddled. It needs to be manual every step of the way.

John Henry

John said...

Damisc and Holdfast,

I agree with I would not want the federal govt to issue voter ID cards. I would have no problem with them coming up with a uniform standard that states could implement, like driver's licenses.

I don't want them regulating elections but Americans have a 14th Amendment right to fair elections. Absent ID and prevention of fraud, that right is trampled.

John Henry

ddh said...

This election is the first in my lifetime when House candidates have advertised more than the presidential candidates. In fact, several whole number multiples more.

readering said...

It will be one great development of this campaign if Trump and Sanders have upset campaign fundraising and spending norms.

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