Among various demographic groups, Trump picked up 13 points among those with a high-school education, earning 54 percent support with that group, and 11 points with those identifying with the tea party, earning 52 percent with that group.... Trump's standing among women has fallen slightly, down four points since October (41 percent to 37 percent this time), though he has gained three points with men (41 percent to 44 percent). Among those with a college degree, support for Trump fell by 10 points, from 41 percent to 31 percent.AND: Trump just came out with his health report. The most interesting thing is: "no history of ever using alcohol." I was also surprised to see that his blood pressure is 110/65, because he looks so orange and puffy.
December 14, 2015
Trump goes up to 41% in the new Monmouth poll of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
The next highest is Cruz, with only 14%. This poll was taken entirely after his proposal to keep Muslims from entering the United States and also after his recent outburst "What the hell is Monmouth? I only like polls that treat me well." So he's liking Monmouth today.
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31 comments:
Trump is surging, because he is taking the strongest position against the strongest threat we face (radical Islam). No secret there. Good for him.
A few more polls, though, for your consideration -- the General election:
NBC/WSJ: Hillary 50, Trump 40
Hillary 48, Cruz 45
Rubio 48, Hillary 45
Carson 47, Hillary 46
USA Today/Suffolk: Hillary 48, Trump 44
Hillary 47, Cruz 45
Rubio 48, Hillary 45
Hillary 46, Carson 45
A few interpretative comments, if I may:
1. Anyone who thinks all the GOP candidates suck, and Hillary is a slam-dunk winner, is clueless.
2. Trump runs behind Hillary in the General. I attribute this to Trump's inability to get the "mushy-middle" vote.
3. Rubio runs slightly ahead of Hillary in the General. I attribute this to Rubio's ability to get the "mushy-middle" vote.
4. These 2 polls are just a snapshot, and will likely change. So, no need to over-interpret. However, if defeating Hillary is the objective, don't dismiss Rubio outta hand. Lotta non-political junkies out there in the electorate....
When does Trump come out and say an anti-establishment election campaign is essentially a negotiation against the establishment?
He could explain every extreme position he's taken as part of a "anchoring" strategy, a shifting of the Overton Window meant to stake out a position from which to compromise, not a compromise position from which to compromise further.
If Hillary is destined to win — if — who would you want to have tested her? I think the answer is Cruz or Trump.
If you knew the GOP candidate had a good chance of winning — if — who would you want in the position of fighting for the win and then actually serving?
That's a MUCH harder question.
The party of right wing populist authoritarian bigots has found their standard bearer.
The Republicans have made a nest of close-minded knee jerk xenophobia, and now they're going to lie in it.
Hillary will either win and prove this country is lost to evil or more likely Americans will prove they are better than the plutarchs and cronies that produce those polls.
Voting for Trump over Hillary!! would be hard. Trump is appealing to the worst in people, and I'm not really sure if there would be a follow-through.
It would be hard, but not impossible. Hillary!! represents everything odious in present-day politics, and she'd be no candidate at all if she were not married to Bill.
So within a week Cruz takes a lead in Iowa and another poll shows Trump increasing his already large lead nationally. Since polls don't mean much until respondents start paying attention I'm going with Iowa.
Trump might bring disaffected white supremacists who normally don't vote into the fold. Don't discount this large block of voters. Trump supporter seem fiercely loyal.
MadisonMan
"Trump is appealing to the worst in people...."
I read this in a number of places. What are the two worst things about people that DT appeals to?
Trump looks orange and puffy. Hillary looks like she will destroy the Constitution, the national defense, the middle class and the hopes of anyone except her contributors.
"I was also surprised to see that his blood pressure is 110/65, because he looks so orange and puffy.
So do you.
Who would want to look at that face all day.
I don't know whether these polls are good for Trump or bad for him--in the primaries it seems it's all an "expectations" game, where you want the bar set low enough that the news becomes about how you were underestimated (look at Santorum, John Kerry, McCain). Better to poll at 30% and then score 40%, than vice versa.
On the other hand, Trump's whole appeal is that he's a "winner" and so he needs to be ahead the whole time. He'd benefit if Cruz, Fiorina and Carson dropped out so he'd take on their votes, while the remainder scrapped over what's left.
We'll see what the new year brings. Less than a couple months left until the first votes are cast.
"Rubio runs slightly ahead of Hillary in the General. I attribute this to Rubio's ability to get the "mushy-middle" vote."
I'd say it also has to do with generational appeal. Hillary vs. Trump looks like two rich, connected Boomers who have no problem using state power to get what they want, and both are very divisive--whatever you think of either of them, they clearly will drive the opposing base to vote against them, and fire up their own base to vote for them. I think the "mushy middle" will hold their nose for either of them, or stay home.
Rubio though does not (yet) fire up the Left--if he got the nomination, Hillary would do everything possible to tar him as a right wing woman-hater, though if Rubio is a skilled politician this won't work (also, voters can only fall for the same tired attacks for so long before they lose their potency). Rubio also is young and probably more relatable to the youth crowd that the Dems need.
Cruz is about Rubio's age, but he looks older. I think it's the hair.
"also, voters can only fall for the same tired attacks for so long before they lose their potency"
If it serves another agenda, like receiving a government check, they can fall for the same tired attacks until time stops. Everybody knows Hillary is a scumbag. Not enough are going to let that fact determine how they vote in 2016.
"If it serves another agenda, like receiving a government check, they can fall for the same tired attacks until time stops. Everybody knows Hillary is a scumbag. Not enough are going to let that fact determine how they vote in 2016."
As they say, you can fool some of them all of the time. I think the "war on women" for example will be a weaker punch next year. Of course, the Hillary gang will throw everything they got so whoever has to face it should brace himself.
Bay Area Guy said...
2. Trump runs behind Hillary in the General. I attribute this to Trump's inability to get the "mushy-middle" vote.
No, that's called the intelligent, middle independent voter who doesn't fall for calculated, xenophobic, naïve arguments that are levied against Muslims just for the sake of getting more votes.
Ann Althouse wrote:
"I was also surprised to see that his blood pressure is 110/65, because he looks so orange and puffy."
That's just one point away from being classified as hypotensive (in males). As they say in the polls, almost certainly within the margin of error. A seeming noteworthy data point because both the Trumpster and Hilary have a serial record of either memory lapses or just changing their stories as convenient for political gain.
Hypertension Research (2009) 32, 931–933;
Chronic hypotension and modulation of autonomic cardiovascular regulation
"Hypotension is defined by WHO (World Health Organization)1 as a systolic blood pressure (SBP) lower than 100 mm Hg in women and 110 mm Hg in men. Chronic hypotension affects quality of life, because of symptoms such as fatigue, dizziness, headache, cold limbs and reduced cognitive performance.2, 3, 4..."
http://www.nature.com/hr/journal/v32/n11/full/hr2009150a.html
According to the data released in July from her most recent medical report, Hilary is in exactly the same boat:
"...Her vital signs showed blood pressure 100/65.."
http://tinyurl.com/hkky2mj
Review:
Clinical Autonomic Research
April 2007, Volume 17, Issue 2, pp 69-76
This review article includes a systematic evaluation of the empirical data concerning deficits in mental ability, brain perfusion, and cerebral functioning due to chronically low blood pressure. A number of studies have provided strong evidence for reduced cognitive performance in hypotension, particularly in the domains of attention and memory. EEG studies have demonstrated that the hypotension-related poorer mental ability is also reflected in diminished cortical activity. Contrary to convention, more recent research has suggested a deficient regulation of cerebral blood flow in persons with low blood pressure. In addition to reduced tonic brain perfusion, studies demonstrated insufficient adjustment of blood flow to cognitive requirements. Altogether, these findings suggest that more attention should be allocated to chronic hypotension in both research and clinical practice.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10286-006-0379-7/fulltext.html
Blogger garage mahal said...
Trump might bring disaffected white supremacists who normally don't vote into the fold. Don't discount this large block of voters. Trump supporter seem fiercely loyal.
I always find it rich when people from Madison speak disparagingly of others being racist or white supremacists.
Madison is arguably the most racist city in the US, GM. What are you doing to combat that?
Get your own house in order before criticizing others.
How is Trump polling in Madison? If what you say is true, about appealing only to white supremacists, he ought to be polling in the mid to high 70's. Or perhaps you are just full of crap. Again.
John Henry
To the question of health, assuming that the doctor's report is true, Trump seems to be doing OK. What about Hillary? Will we get to see her medical report?
Trump gives the perception of having much more energy and stamina than Hillary. It seems like he is out there every day speaking to packed houses. Flying all over the country to do it. The speeches I've seen he always seems pretty pumped up. Speaks for an hour or so and never (that I've seen) uses a teleprompter.
That may or may not be an accurate perception but I'll bet a lot of people on both sides share it. Doesn't matter if it is accurate, we act on perception not fact.
Hillary, otho, gives the impression of speaking rather infrequently, using a teleprompter when she does, and not having a great deal of energy or pumpedupedness. Again, that is the perception and it doesn't much matter whether it is accurate.
She has had one stroke, there are rumors about her drinking and she does not look all that good, in my non-medical opinion.
So she sat and answered questions for 11 hours. I suspect that anyone should be able to do that. I spoke for 12 hours to several groups in January. Started at 6AM, finished at 6PM. I stood the whole time since I can't teach and sit at the same time.
Hilary and I are about the same age. I suspect that like me she was not in any condition to do anything challenging for the next couple days.
She has even said recently how hard campaigning is. How much will she be able to do come August when she is another 8 months older?
John Henry
"always find it rich when people from Madison speak disparagingly of others being racist or white supremacists."
I don't live in Madison.
"AND: Trump just came out with his health report. The most interesting thing is:"
"no history of ever using alcohol."
You're up, Hillary.
Hillary, like Dick Cheney, is just a bad human being. It is a disgrace that either of them ever had a leadership role in our government.
No, that's called the intelligent, middle independent voter who doesn't fall for calculated, xenophobic, naïve arguments that are levied against Muslims just for the sake of getting more votes.
They fall for economic populist bullshit Instead? They fall for Wall Street's preferred candidate as the one who will get tough with Wall Street?
If Hillary is destined to win — if — who would you want to have tested her? I think the answer is Cruz or Trump.
Completely agree. The emotional wing of the Republican party lost out to the calculating wing in the last presidential cycle. After the painful results of 2012, the only way for the calculating side to get any credence is to let the emotional side have a go with Trump. Only when Hillary is picking out drapes and supreme court justices will the emotional side go through a bit of reflection. If Rubio is the nominee and loses, the party rift we now have will seem like a sidewalk crack.
If you knew the GOP candidate had a good chance of winning — if — who would you want in the position of fighting for the win and then actually serving?
Rubio is in the best position to win it all. Trump is winning within the GOP, and there is some crossover blue-collar appeal to his candidacy, no doubt. But the degree to which he has been successfully caricatured by the media to independents and Democrats is not understood in right-wing circles. My top two candidates for successfully running the country have either dropped out or declined to enter the race.
Democrats need to learn, rank and file democrats who aren't liberal and who may be blue collar, will have their jobs threatened by mass influx of illegal aliens. And some still have respect for the rule of law. A small few.
Kaus's immigration points have always been directed towards the harm caused by illegal immigration on wages. And bernie sanders has made some of the same points.
Who do the liberal liberals who want unfettered immigration think they are speaking for? Illegal immigration are not their constituents.
As to Trump rising in the polls, lets remember, they are polls. They could be a democratic plan to make republicans look like Donald Trump. who are the people they are asking? We hear the result, but I have no idea about the methodology behind the polls. They could be media driven, causing all credible candidates to drop out, and then we are left with Trump and no one is actually going to vote for him.
He's really hoping hard that the Democrats will slam him for the no data conclusory report. He would love that. For once he will respond to the criticism and release all kinds of detail. Then he will ask why Hillary does not do the same.
I see a lot of news stories about a "release of Trump's medical records." That's not true. What Trump got was a letter from a friendly doctor.
It isn't a medial record. Whether there was any recent examination isn't even entirely clear. "Medical records" are examination and treatment records. "Medical reports" are what litigators get when they pay $2400 to their favorite, reliable opnionators.
This guy who is Trump's doctor -- is his name Dr. Leo Spaceman or something like that? -- is he a gastroenterologist? Why is the unbelievably healthy Trump seeing a gastroenterologist? Why not a regular primary care physician? Internist/family practice/etc.?
And let's review this laughably non-medical bs about Trump being the "healthiest individual ever elected to the Presidency." Trump, at 70, would be the oldest person ever inaugurated. Older than Reagan.
George W. Bush was 54 and riding mountain bikes. Jimmy Carter was 52 and a runner who neither smoked nor drank. Carter also has set a record that might not be broken for generations, for the longest lifespan after leaving office. Trump wouldn't break it. Barack Obama was a smoker in his 40's; but what other health issues did he / does he have?
Mediaite has way more fun with all of this (including Trump getting the name of "his" doctor wrong) than is routinely possible with all of your clothes on:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/meet-harold-bornstein-personal-physician-to-donald-trump/
yeah well those educated idiots with College degrees from places like UW, and taught by "law profs" that do not know what a natural born Citizen is and /or whom voted for a Usurper---TWICE!!, can't be that smart.
It was an unholy alliance of Blacks, women, and educated idiots who gave us the destroyer of America, and whom are still unapologetic of that alliance today.
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