October 9, 2012

PPP poll for Daily Kos/SEIU: Romney 49%, Obama 47%.

Kos says:
That's a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we've ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline [sic] with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week....

Among women, Obama went from a 15-point lead to a slimmer 51-45 edge. Meanwhile, Romney went from winning independents 44-41 to winning them 48-42. And just like the Ipsos poll showed last week, Romney further consolidated his base. They went from supporting him 85-13 last week, to 87-11 this week while Obama lost some Democrats, going from 88-9 last week, to 87-11 this week....

... Obama's debate performance was an epic blunder. Romney gave his partisans a reason to get excited about him and they've responded. It should come as no surprise that people like to fight for people who are fighting for them.
That last sentence hints of anger that might be paraphrased as: We gave you a billion dollars and you didn't even bother to engage for 90 minutes.

What's one billion divided by 90? Obama threw away his supporters' money at the rate of over $11 million a minute. (And he wants to be in charge of spending all our money and much, much more for the next 4 years. Do the math!)

69 comments:

Michael K said...

They are counting on the second debate. I wonder who will be checking ID on the town hall members. I expect a hall packed with SEIU members. Maybe a gay general or two.

Bob Ellison said...

Let's face it, people: using polls to portray Obama as a runaway winner didn't work. Now we must use polls to portray Romney as a winner. Not a runaway; let's start with a small lead-- just enough to scare everyone.

Libertarian Advocate said...

In Farsi, Kos is an extremely vulgar slang term for a certain "Lady Part."

And conservatives are waging a war against women?

MayBee said...

So has Kos come out as an affiliate of SEIU now?

Bob Ellison said...

Also, Obama looked sad and pessimistic. Voters like upbeat, optimistic imagery. Maybe Obama will let us do something for him in the Oval Office, like we did for Ned Lamont.

Pastafarian said...

OK, I'll do the math.

$11 million per minute is actually pretty close to what the federal government spends these days.

So for Obama, that was about par for the course. (Obama would particularly appreciate that phrase, I think.)

AJ Lynch said...

Libruls don't do math Althouse.

SteveR said...

Romney gave people who were awake a reason to get excited about him and they've responded./fixed

clint said...

"We gave you a billion dollars and you didn't even bother to engage for 90 minutes."

That sounds like it exactly.

Not sure what that anger translates to in November, though.

Paddy O said...

This country gave Obama a lot more than a billion dollars to work with.

TosaGuy said...

I was polled last night (don't know by whom -- robopoll) so I now have to believe that polling exists.

Still don't put too much faith in any of it -- Romney needs to build on his momentum in order to win -- but it is fun to watch the KosKids become unglued.

Brennan said...

Nate! Massage baby! Massage!

Tim said...

"What's one billion divided by 90? Obama threw away his supporters' money at the rate of over $11 million a minute. (And he wants to be in charge of spending all our money and much, much more for the next 4 years. Do the math!)"

Do the math?

If people "did the math," this race would be over.

"Do the math" = 8%+ unemployment rate; = $4 trillion added to the debt; = "free birth control," = "health care reform" that will increase costs, ration, delay and degrade care; = $1 trillion "stimulus" pissed away and pet Democrat power interests groups and crony capitalism; = failed foreign policies, esp. in the Middle East; = failed energy policies based on fantasies, only driving up the cost of gas and home heating fuel; = countless dead from "Fast and Furious."

I can't recall all the debacles, so I'm sure this list is much longer.

So yes, if one "did the math," Althouse and voters like her would have decided months, if not a year or two before, to vote against Obama.

Instead, we have this little drama about Obama voters who can't make up their minds, watching the campaign for clues, when the last four years is all anyone would ever need to see what a clear failure our president is.

"Do the math." How ironic.

Seeing Red said...

--Romney gave his partisans a reason to get excited about him and they've responded--

I don't agree with this. I think 1 of the reasons the viewership was high was because people wanted to see for themselves if it was OK to vote for Mitt. They might keep it to themselves and play dumb, but I think voters were looking for a reason.

And then Barry decided to be Barry, the MSM filter was removed for both men.

Matthew Sablan said...

Headline update from Hot Air: ARG puts Romney up 1 in Ohio – with a D+9 sample.

That's... terrible.

ricpic said...

How do you reinflate a popped balloon? Well, you can patch it. But then you have a patched balloon, not the bright shiny unmarred balloon the folks bought the first time around. Or you can say, "What patch?" and pray real hard to Alinsky that the suckers will buy it, the lie and the balloon a second time around.

traditionalguy said...

That was a great and concise, if snarky, post, Professor.

You may now be eligible for full membership in the Traditional Republicans Sect. Like the USMC, it is for life.

We only need to work on converting the good liberal lady, Inga/Allie.

Brennan said...

I don't agree with this. I think 1 of the reasons the viewership was high was because people wanted to see for themselves if it was OK to vote for Mitt.

I agree. My parents tell me about the voting booth in 1980. They just couldn't cast a ballot for Carter even though they did in 1976. There wasn't Dick Nixon to kick around anymore, nor his veeps. Reagan was a new candidate.

I think this year will be very similar. Voters just know the troubles with Obama and won't give him another 4 years to try again.

TWM said...

"That's... terrible."

Not for Romney :)

elkh1 said...

"And he wants to be in charge of spending all our money and much, much more for the next 4 years. Do the math!"
And he did a remarkable job doing that in the last four years. He dug the car from the ditch and drove it to the cliff. Final destination: off the cliff.

TWM said...

"I agree. My parents tell me about the voting booth in 1980. They just couldn't cast a ballot for Carter even though they did in 1976. There wasn't Dick Nixon to kick around anymore, nor his veeps. Reagan was a new candidate."

My parents were much the same way. Carter supporters at the beginning but after four years of horror they had no problem voting for Reagan. Being from the South, part of their reasoning for voting for Carter was we needed to get a Southerner in there for a change, but he turned out to be a miserable failure and they had no problem saying, "Well, we tried."

I, too, see the same thing happening here. Many wanted to believe this guy was different for any number or reasons - youth, race, coolness, whatever - but now they see he's a miserable failure and they just aren't going to give it a second try.

Sue D'Nhym said...

"It should come as no surprise that people like to fight for people who are fighting for them."

Oh, God. We're about to get Gore redux. Remember his convention speech, which was all "I will fight for you!"

We may even get the sequel to "THE KISS."

elkh1 said...

Good news: Obama's 47% is holding.

Nathan Alexander said...

Libruls don't do math Althouse.

But liberals will claim they do.

Did anyone else notice all of the references by Obama to "the math"? I think it was at least 3, and that was echoed by his surrogates after the debate.

Why? Because when Ryan was picked as the VP candidate, the theme was that it was what Obama feared most: math. And for about a month, conservatives hammered liberals on how the math never works out for liberal policies.

Remember this?
http://www.amazon.com/Paul-Ryan-MATH-T-Shirt-CafePress/dp/B008UL1LR2

Even though the MSM embargoed the math critique, enough of it got through to the Obama campaign that they felt they needed to do the Junior High thing: the insult that is said first, wins.

That's why garage mahal is out insisting that Ryan can't explain his policies, and if he does, they were written by Heritage and not his own, anyway.

It is an attempt to inoculate Biden (and Obama) from the same accusation.

Patrick said...

There have been reports that the President left the stage last Thursday, thinking that he had done a good job in the debate.

Man, I wonder who drew the short straw, and had to tell him?

Patrick said...

Heh heh: Paul Ryan - Making Math cool.

Jay said...

OOPS!

Former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are virtually tied among likely voters, a new Gallup daily tracking poll will show, according to USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.

Oh well, the whole RV model was fun while it lasted.

Maybe Nate Silver will "dig deeper" and find Obama with a 90% chance of winning now.

Bruce Hayden said...

Maybe a bit more cynical than most here today, but the polls seem to have been all over this year, and it was really time that the pollsters took their Dem bias out of their poll results, so that they could approach reality by election time. Hard to believe that one debate would do all this.

And, for all the libs out there, keep in mind that it ain't over till the fat woman sings, and the Pres has a huge stack of money to spend, with more coming in every day. Yes, a lot of it is probably illegal, but with Holder running the DoJ, who cares?

SteveR said...

The hope of the MSM/liberal establishment is to offer up and cement the Comeback Kid characterization for Obama after the next two debates with that being the push to get the polls turned around and the election victory snatched from defeat.

I realize that's a stretch and relies on being able to create a narrative which is unsupported by facts, but this isn't 2008.

Dante said...

from Rasmussen:

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest.

whoresoftheinternet said...

Wait, the Daily Kos is calling this an epic blunder?

Don't they know that AIDS-Dementia-Complex-Andy says Obama is just playing 12th-level chess and rope-a-doping Romney?

Bueller?....Bueller?

Seeing Red said...

The 2nd debate might not go so well for Barry either, there's a lot of bad stuff that Mitt can bring up and people would wonder why they never read or heard about it.

whoresoftheinternet said...

The problem for Romney is if Obama shows any improvement at the next 2 debates, no matter how miniscule, the MSM will spin this as Obama "winning" or "coming back."

In conclusion, fuck the left.

Nathan Alexander said...

Sean Trende explains the polling shenanigans well:

First, the bandwagon effect affects fundraising. Once you move outside the partisan core, people like to back winners. This is especially true of the business community. By assiduously cultivating its front-runner status, the Obama campaign has aided its ability to press future arguments.

Second, maintaining a lead allows greater leeway in the arguments it can make. Something like the “cancer ad” from August looks hard-hitting from a campaign that is leading (and I certainly include candidate super PACs as part of the “campaign”), but would probably be described as “desperate” from one that is losing.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it affects press portrayals of the candidates and party enthusiasm. This is the most important thing here: I still think the default expectation here has been that Obama should be losing.


That's on the 2nd page of this article.

creeley23 said...

Dante quotes Rasmussen:

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world.

I think the polling models are broken and the pollsters are frantically trying to patch them in real-time. I also do not rule out some amount of partisanship.

Sam L. said...

" MayBee said...

So has Kos come out as an affiliate of SEIU now?"

Birds of a feather, etc.

Marshal said...

Let's keep in mind Romney is likely to underperform expectations in the polls after the next big event, presumably the next debate. We're going to have a slight counter-trend to the continuing major trend.

Whenever an enthusiasm building event occurs some of the increase is short term. Some people are overly influenced by the immediate, in other cases people are more likely to answer polls rather than consider them a waste of time - consider various commenters at Althouse.

The overall trend is to Romney. He's doing what he needs to, which is demonstrate to non-political voters getting their first direct understanding of him that the Democrats' and Media's (but I repreat myself) caricature of him is false. Other than not step on himself in the debates, this is all he has to do against an incumbent with Obama's pathetic record.

But in order to maintain the same level of movement he would have to crush Obama in the foreign policy debate even more than he did the last, because expectations are so much higher. This isn't likely, so Obama's support will continue to deteriorate but at a lesser rate. Combine this with the enthusiasm dissipation and the poll results will likely be disappointing if not understood in context.

Romney's slow but steady gains will continue right up to the election. He'll win any state in which he's tied right now - which is true of some key states.

alan markus said...

That's why garage mahal is out insisting that Ryan can't explain his policies, and if he does, they were written by Heritage and not his own, anyway.

Has anyone else noticed when there is a post that has a headline showing Romney at least even with Obama, Garage Mahal is missing in action, and Shilo shies away too?

Those headlines are like garlic to a vampire.

sydney said...

I finally watched the debate this past weekend. I have to say, I don't see how Obama was so bad. He seems like he always does to me, but then again, I have never been a fan. What was it about his performance that was so different than any other public speaking engagement he has had? Even with his teleprompter, he is about the same as he was that night.

I thought Romney did well, but I believe his positions make more sense to begin with.

What was it, exactly, about Obama that caused his supporters to tear their shirts and put ashes on their heads? Why did the scales suddenly fall from their eyes?

Nathan Alexander said...

Apologies for a thread swerve, but I'd really like to hear Inga's response to this.

The gist of the article is, W personalized his condolence letters, and often met in person with the parents of the fallen. President Obama sends a form letter.

This is on top of the "robo-signed letters" dismissal/disrespect toward the military fallen several weeks ago.

Bob Ellison said...

creeley23 said "I think the polling models are broken and the pollsters are frantically trying to patch them in real-time. I also do not rule out some amount of partisanship."

I'd like to believe that your assessment is correct, but I don't anymore. Bruce Hayden alluded above to what's probably happening. Pollsters do their work for money, and they only get responses from about 9% of their samples, and they have a huge cell-phone problem, and who answers polls, anyway?

Pollsters sell products, and it's natural for them to make the products attractive to the buyers. But in the first week of October, pollsters have to claw back toward reality in order to shore up their chances of getting new business in the future. Otherwise the news folks won't bother to quote the polls.

Jay said...

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 41% (Gravis)

Ohio: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Pennsylvania: Obama 43%, Romney 40% (Siena)

Chip Ahoy said...

Wanna hear something totally stupid? Okay, goes like this.

Part of the dealio for the BS was algebra for business. And I thought oh good I'll finally learn how to know for certainty which car to rent. And sure enough that was the fist thing we learned, just like the bird questions, everyone thinks of the stupidest things first so they're covered first, the rest was mostly about calculating parabolas. Which to narrow down takes a bit of intuition! to get started.

So anyway I was going along with homework and it occurred to me that numbers were just symbols for ideas, like words. And mathematical symbols are words too, and further any symbol will do.

So change them and see if that's really true. This was hours before guests would arrive, so I'm cutting the whole homework thing close. I must finish and be done with it for the weekend.

So I changed them all to ordinary Egyptian hieroglyphics, but not the right ones. Number one was papyrus, two was a snake in the shape of a 2, five was a hand, three is a mountain shape with three peaks, equal is two squares the same size, and so forth so that all numbers and symbols were reassigned and the modern day problems worked out and the answers spelled out in the contrived symbols which figured just as well as the regular numbers and symbols and when checked, it worked! I head felt pressurized with new comprehension, all this shit is just symbols! That's all. Now guests arrived. I went running around telling everybody my new realization and showed them my paper and they're all, Dude, relax, your realization is incredibly obvious and stupid. Like I'm the last one on Earth to figure that out.

Marshal said...

Jay said...
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)


The key to a Romney victory is what state beyond Ohio can he win?

Colorado is becoming more likely, the other possibilities being Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. But all of these are tough states.

alan markus said...

@ Jay:

New poll shows Obama's lead in Wisconsin down to two points

PPP (Democratic) had Obama/Romney 52/45 two weeks prior.

Jay said...

alan,

Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus was upbeat Saturday and expressed confidence about the GOP chances of claiming the state in the November clection.

"I just saw a Democratic poll come out two minutes ago and said we were two points down in Wisconsin," Priebus said, referring to a Public Policy Polling survey that showed President Barack Obama leading GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 49% to 47%.

"I never thought Wisconsin was out of reach," Priebus said. "I always thought it was a close race. Obviously we wouldn’t spend millions of dollars here if we didn’t think it would be close. It will be a battleground all the way to the end. Paul Ryan on the ticket gives an edge."

Priebus also said the party's ground game in Wisconsin is superior to the Democratic operation.

"We've been beating them for three years," he said.

alan markus said...

@ Nathan Alexander:

The gist of the article is, W personalized his condolence letters, and often met in person with the parents of the fallen. President Obama sends a form letter.

This is on top of the "robo-signed letters" dismissal/disrespect toward the military fallen several weeks ago.


Wonder if this is any correlation:

Military Poll: Romney Creams Obama by 40 Percentage Points

Jay said...

Gallup Likely Voter polling begins, with Romney up by 2, 49-47%

Nathan Alexander said...

@Alan,
Yep.

This, too.

From the poster's comment:
In the video, the Marines exhibit obvious love and respect for President Bush. His visit was not an event that followed closely on the heels of 9/11. This video was taken after the worst days of the war and after the surge created major progress in the region. The president is visiting the troops in Anbar Province, the home of the infamous Falluja and Ar Ramadi killing grounds. This visit took place after the province had been pacified. In other words, the Marines showed their love of Mr. Bush even after the darkest days of the war.

The Lejune video, on the other hand, shows Obama entering with all the pomp and circumstance of a royal visit to the peasants. Hail to the Chief plays in the background; something that President Bush didnt allow during his military visits. Obama knows that keeping the Marines locked at the position of attention means that no comparison can ever be made to the loving reception President Bush regularly received from the troops. Obama knows how the Marines feel and will always treat them exactly like the rabble he sees.

This is the real truth of the video and why it is so popular. It warms the heart of Bush supporters to see President Bush receive the love, gratitude and respect of these warriors. It angers Obama supporters because they also see the love President Bush receives and they know their man will never see anything similar from the troops. They know that these warriors loved the last president and will never give similar respect to this one.

t-man said...

Just popping in for a quick visit. My town in SE Pennsylvania (the ninth largest in the Commonwealth) went hog wild for Obama in 2008. There were yard signs and bumper stickers everywhere . This year? Crickets. Obama may still pull it out, but no one is in my face telling me they plan to vote. There is no enthusiasm for him.

Matthew Sablan said...

"What was it about his performance that was so different than any other public speaking engagement he has had?"

-- Someone of equal standing challenged him, forced him to account and then called him a liar to his face multiple times, all while Lehrer the moderator did nothing to stop the beating.

If Romney is as aggressive in the foreign policy debate, he may win the election by TKO.

edutcher said...

I'm skeptical of any KosKidz poll, largely because of the Comeback Kid possibilities.

I welcome good news, but some you take with a grain of salt.

PS Where's our little bathtub swabbie? Thought sure he'd want us to know how swell Ned Silver thinks Choom is doing.

edutcher said...

t-man said...

Just popping in for a quick visit. My town in SE Pennsylvania (the ninth largest in the Commonwealth)

K of P?

Jay said...

CNN LV poll has Romney up 1

ricpic said...

Rush is funny as hell today. Apparently there's a new Gallup poll out that indicates the post debate Romney bounce is subsiding. Rush's comment? "Sullivan, who's been suicidal lately, can come in off the ledge."

Bill said...

Speaking of enthusiasm, here in St. Louis I was noticing none of it until a couple weeks before the Republican convention. We're a very blue city in a usually red state. In 2008 there were Obama stickers and signs everywhere. This time, not so much. Then, just before the R convention, they started sprouting up. Not quite at the level of 2008 but still lots of people getting 'out & proud' in a genuinely surprising way. Not just 'I'll vote for O because he's better than the alternative' but hardcore advocacy and defense and some real Romney Derangement Syndrome (not at the level of Bush or Palin, but still).

R's have always been more subdued here and we're not into yard signs so much and we don't want our cars keyed so you can't really gauge the level of enthusiasm. I'm sure it's there and simmering nicely, I just don't know if it's enough to overcome the strong Left presence here.

creeley23 said...

I'd like to believe that your assessment [that polling models are broken] is correct, but I don't anymore.

Bob Ellison: Yes, I've read the analysis you present and there is truth to that as well, but I still think this year is strange and the models are broken.

As Silver tweeted three weeks ago: "The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense."

You might enjoy the recent Hinderaker-Ward podcast on the polls.

t-man said...

edutch -

LM

Mike said...

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Watching a meltdown is so fun. Tell me, Garage, how does it feel to have one?

gadfly said...

If there really is a resentment on the part of those who have donated to the "O" campaign, federal law, written by the Dems, provides a way out in cases where a credit card was used.

Disputing the charge on a credit card is very simple. The small print on the back of the monthly statement related to the credit card explains exactly how to do the dispute - and as long the complaint is received within 90 days of the original transaction, the charge will be reversed. The Obama campaign will be invited to send proof of your intent to donate, but in today's world, they will have no proof of signature.

Zach said...

Now guests arrived. I went running around telling everybody my new realization and showed them my paper and they're all, Dude, relax, your realization is incredibly obvious and stupid. Like I'm the last one on Earth to figure that out.

It's always hard to explain to people that something they take for granted is actually tricky and subtle.

When I was in grad school, we'd sometimes quote Douglas Adams and joke about being in the Institute for Slowly and Painfully Working Out the Surprisingly Obvious.

garage mahal said...

" Mike said...Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Watching a meltdown is so fun. Tell me, Garage, how does it feel to have one?"

Meltdown over what?

elkh1 said...

Patrick: Man, I wonder who drew the short straw, and had to tell him?

Time for another Hitler's rant?

Seeing Red said...

Via Insty:

Before attack on U.S. mission in Libya, State Dept. concluded risk of violence was high

Alex said...

meltdown over a Daily Kos poll that shows Romney +2.

Icepick said...

The first debate wasn't about Obama winning or losing. It was about Romney showing that he was up to the job. The only way for Obama to have won would have been to get Romney to make himself look ridiculous, which was a high bar.

What's happening (and I still distrust the polls) is that people that want Obama gone but weren't certain about the potential replacement are now making up their minds. My wife was one of those, and will probably vote for Mittens now, despite her justified distrust of the Republicans in general. I remain firmly committed to Attila the Hun's reconstituted zombie corpse.

Romney made those folks believe that he can be a credible President. Obama's performance didn't matter one way or the other.

gmama3 said...

While Romney did give partisans a reason to get excited, I think the biggest effect was to make people accept Romney as a presidential, intelligent successful man who is full of reasonable ideas. On the other hand it made lukewarm Obama supporters think, geeze, this guy isn't trying very hard, why should I elect him?

wildswan said...

Hey, listen. Write to the President. Let him know that he DID win. He WAS great, just the way he thought. He knows how to run a debate better than anyone, that's why some say he lost. Just jealous. Tell the President to stay the course. Lift up your voices: Mr. President, please, for the sake of the country, - DO IT AGAIN!!!

Sandi Denio said...

"Romney 49%, Obama 47%."

Looks like Obama is down to the 47% who "will never" vote for Romney. *grin*