Quoted in "Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine" (NYT).
Silver intuits that the polls reflect a "nonresponse bias": "It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them."
Nonresponse bias can be a hard problem to solve. Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits....
Who would answer the phone these days?
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization. Pollsters are attempting to correct for this problem with increasingly aggressive data-massaging techniques, like weighing by educational attainment (college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys) or even by how people say they voted in the past....
In other words, polls aren't polls anymore. Pollsters just report what they want the answer to be... within the constraint of needing to protect their reputation. And that's why the answer is always it's absolutely completely tied down to the wire and anybody's guess. And here's Nate Silver boosting hope that Kamala Harris could win while reserving credit for himself — for him and his gut.
Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them.
For "one" of the candidates. As if we don't know which one! I'm looking at the betting average — where Trump is up to 61.0 (over 37.6) — and at the mood at campaign events. Compare Kamala's funereal sit-down with Liz Cheney and Charlie Sykes to the relaxed grinning orange visage rising over the ecstatic crowd in Greenville, North Carolina Monday night.
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It’s not only that Harris is downbeat and Trump is upbeat. It’s that all Harris’ surrogates are similarly downbeat and Trump’s surrogates are upbeat. (Biden and Walz seem exceptions, but both seem permanently unaware.)
I'd rather be in the Trump camp two weeks out, than in Kamala's.
But, hey. At least they got the day off yesterday.
I see an Althouse poll in our future. Probably be more accurate than all the professional pols combined.
I've been inundated with email, text and phone polls, I never respond to any of them.
Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards
by which, i assume they me the FRAUD cards
college-educated voters are more likely to respond to surveys
He claims without evidence. I find this hard to believe. Do they have more leisure time?
I watched that funereal sit-down with Liz Cheney and Charlie Sykes and I was fascinated by the gloom, which also pervaded the audience that formed the backdrop. I was moved to ask out loud: What if when you die, there's either nothing — death is death — or there's purgatory and it's sitting in that audience and it goes on for a thousand years, but after that, there's eternal bliss?
Yah, I don’t think Silver is part of any inner circle nowadays but that statement is an accounting of fraud from the left, complete with the loaded but qualified relatively decisive. IOW a leftie squeaker but don’t you dare try to look where the votes came from.
As Americans know, much rides on this election. What an understatement!
My prayer is that there are enough sane voters that will cast their votes for the man who has done the job before and done it well.
My telephone number alter ego ‘Khin’ has been bombarded with texts re polls surveys and have you turned in your ballot yet?
We just had an election here in British Columbia and the polls were bang on (pretty much dead heat between leftish establishment party and insurgent Conservative party).
So the pollsters still can get things right if they want to.
I got a call last week from someone who set up the conversation like a pollster might, but before that person could finish, I just said "I don't follow politics" and hung up. More likely it was a voter identification effort from one of the campaigns, but who cares either way? The polls are B.S. and who needs to be led by the elbow to the voting booth?
I received a Voting Report Card from a left wing outfit. Why? What business is it of theirs, of anyone but me, if I’ve voted? Crosses the line imho.
So the pollsters still can get things right if they want to.
That is a great comment.
That is funny. Thank you!
I used to get those from my friendly neighborhood union thugs, threatening language and all…
Think about this. The Dems tried to bankrupt Trump with civil lawsuits and throw him in jail. None of those cases had any merit and the trials made a kangaroo court look like the Supreme Court. We know essentially nothing about the two assassination attempts, but the rhetoric of “Trump is a threat to democracy” certainly played a role. And Trump fights on as a happy warrior purely out of love of country. He is the mentally toughest person of our age.
Response rates to even the best telephone polls are in the single digits
Innumeracy. They try to make that sound tragic but historically mid single digits is a high response rate for just about anything. It’s maddening for me to hear supposedly intelligent medical professionals lament they can’t get 100 percent participation in vaccines. If you want people to trust you open a friggin math book for chrissakes…
Silver has been simping for Harris a bit, repeatedly and inexplicably describing her as "a good candidate," but he seems to be trying to play it as straight as he can with his poll analysis. I think he's been a bit stunned by how viciously the left turned on him.
According to the powers that be, this kind of Trump victory would be impossible. Next thing, you'll tell me Indiana football is undefeated and ranked in late October, and we know that could never happen.
I think it's force of habit. People who have complete 16+ years of school are used to answering questions and are simply more comfortable doing it, regardless of the subject. Add to that the shift in political alignment based on when people stopped going to school and its implications, and I think he's on pretty firm ground.
Greg Kihn (1949-2024) RIP
"Who would answer the phone these days? "
Yes, what a transformation this has been. My land line rings and I don't even get up to look at the caller ID. The only question is should I pull them all out of the wall and throw them in the garbage, thereby eliminating a lot of meaningless distractions.
And yet, she persisted
And yet, she persisted
Yeah, he's pretty open about wanting Harris to win in his substack posts, and the recent post giving a couple dozen reasons why Trump might win was not well received by his Democrat subscribers, who mostly want their daily dose of data-driven cope. He admitted in another post yesterday that he'd have a hard time coming up with a similar list for Harris.
I'm absolutely baffled why Kamala would trot out Liz Cheney. Who is persuaded by her presence? It's the "people who hate Trump" tour. It's the anti-joy campaign. It's the "women you want to avoid" whistle stop.
What he neglects is that both Bannon-type faux "Republican Party reformers" from the right and Democrat operatives from the left are doing a good job of scaring Trump voters from even voting. This dual disinformation campaign is what has crashed and burned Trump and several decent Republicans in the swing states in recent elections, even as Trump himself contributed to it.
Anyone who doesn't vote because he has become convinced his vote will be stolen is an idiot and a dupe. I have no sympathy or patience left for the preening buffoons who fall for the operatives leading them by the nose.
It will be a deciding factor in this race, especially in Georgia. I intend to make sure anyone who skipped voting (which is public record) is exposed for the treasonous dupes they are, and work to keep them out of political circles they're not competent to participate in.
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust …
The obligatory “if you cannot express disdain for Trump himself then you must express disdain for his supporters — deplorables one and all.”
In other words, polls aren't polls anymore. Pollsters just report what they want the answer to be...
Congratulations, Professor! You broke the code.
Liz Cheney says only elect people who are good babysitters. What Pres has ever been good with kids in a non-creepy way? TR, that lovable man? I guess FDR. Lincoln. I guess she means Dick was good with the grandkids, and should have been Pres (officially).
Everyone in the room is thinking: don't mention hair-sniffing. Don t say hair, don't say sniffing. With Maria Shriver and KH both there, don t mention nannies.
Sitting in that audience would not be purgatory for me! It would be a thousand years of bliss. Kamala Harris deserves the gloom. Liz Cheney— would Purgatory provide me things I could throw at her for a thousand years?
I think Trump supporters are going to be in for a shock 2 weeks from now. Look for a repeat -- on steroids -- of the election night shenanigans that occurred in 2020 putting Biden in office. Only this time fraud will be an order of magnitude more brazen, which will be the point. The Democrats will be telling the entire electorate that it doesn't matter at all what the people want or who they vote for. Heads they win, tails you lose, and the news media will be happy to go along with it.
Indiana with two fewer losses than Alabama? It’s a sign of the Apocalypse!
Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement
Anyone know what that was intended to mean (or how it is gauged)?
Not sure I would count Biden as one of Kamala's surrogates. If she goes down in flames, he can say he was right all along.
They are probably more likely to have a desk job and to work from home (and be available via landline).
Mike, it's not a value judgement, it just *is*. It's why the Democrats have historically needed a huge GOTV ground game because those are the voters who used lean Democrat. The GOP got away with poor GOTV efforts for years because their supporters were engaged enough to go vote on their own. If the GOP is going to capitalize on the on-going realignment we're going to have to accept that the marginal GOP voters act differently now.
"Big Mike said...
Indiana with two fewer losses than Alabama? It’s a sign of the Apocalypse!"
For a good laugh, look at Indiana's schedule. Their ranking is a joke. If they played Alabama, Alabama would be favored by two TD's.
Speaking only for myself, I lie to telephone pollsters and trash survey forms that arrive by mail. Luckily , so far, my front door has so far been un-knocked.
I answer the phone. Nothing bad happens. But they stopped polling us in August even though I acted undecided. Anyway, Rasmussen is best because you don't have to answer out loud. Public Policy Polling same.
But I did voter ID phone banking almost 20 years ago, and very few picked up even then .So these polls have been whack a long time. I really don't t think they can provide this service anymore.
@Tank, if Alabama can lose to Vanderbilt then they can lose to any Big Ten team (all 18 of ‘em). Except maybe Purdue.
Someone mentioned the event was the "Wives whose husbands have 'tagged' the nanny" support group.
@Tank, do as I did and get rid of it. About ten years ago Verizon went on a lengthy strike and days after it’s start a very heavy rainstorm cost us our landline. Verizon spent months demonstrating to us that the wife I can easily live with cell phones alone.
And just yesterday Slow Joe Biden himself expressed the opinion that Trump needed to be locked up.
Harris and Kamala are both melting down in public. They clearly know they are losing by over 20 million actual voters.
Nate doesn't have to rely on his gut for the numbers; he knows the numbers.
His gut is telling him that the post-voting adjustments will not be adequate to get the results that he so much desires in his heart, gut, and elsewhere.
"Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust..." Do we have data to support that or are we just going on vibes. Are we just counting vapid followers on TikTok? I don't even know if that is true anymore using that metric. I think the coasters undervalue the civic connections in small communities.
Early voting in PA had twice as many Dem votes as Repubs "mailed" in, and that trend will decide the election, as Dems harvest votes better than the Repubs. Harris in a squeaker, by as many mailed-in votes as it takes to defeat Trump.
I watched a bit of it as well and it was depressing. Harris' overarching message was "don't despair". Sheez! What kind of closing argument is that? What happened to the joy?
Also, I know it's been said many time before, but listening to Kamala is excruciating. She is simply awful.
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