From "Thermonuclear Blasts and New Species: Inside Elon Musk’s Plan to Colonize Mars/SpaceX employees are working on plans for a Martian city, including dome habitats, spacesuits and researching whether humans can procreate off Earth. Mr. Musk has volunteered his sperm" (NYT)(free-access link).
Scientists haven’t determined whether people can have children in space. Mr. Musk has said children won’t be allowed on the first flights to Mars because of the dangers....
In his 2013 interview for the science video, he said he hoped to create his own species on Mars.... “I think it’s quite likely that we’d want to bioengineer new organisms that are better suited to living on Mars,” he said in the interview. “Humanity’s kind of done that over time, by sort of selective breeding.”
I take a long break to review the plot of "The Island of Dr. Moreau." What was Moreau's motivation? Anyway, wanting creatures suited to the insanely hostile environment of Mars seems beneficent, doesn't it? I mean, beneficent after you're already there... in that place where no one's gone yet. The madness is traveling there in the first place, injecting human beings into that hell. Maybe you need to bioengineer them into not minding cruelty and extreme deprivation.
Back to the Times article:
[Musk] also has a strategy for warmth. In a 2022 podcast interview, he said he would tackle the planet’s icy temperatures with a series of thermonuclear explosions that would warm the planet by creating artificial suns. Hundreds of solar panels, potentially built by Tesla, will help heat homes and create energy, three people familiar with his plans said....
The colony will center on a giant dome for communal living, with smaller domes scattered around it. Discussions have lately focused on what materials to use for the domes. Mr. Musk is particularly concerned with making sure the city looks cool, two other people said....
Yes, make sure the city looks cool.
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63 comments:
Ok, well, the Cybertruck makes a lot more sense now...
Mars, receive an honored guest
Elon Musk is laid to rest
Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat.
"a citizen-led government that rules by consensus." Hmmm. That's not gonna go over well with members and supporters of a certain political party.
I don't care how cockamamie it sounds, at least he's trying to produce the 21st century we were promised.
Ad Astra, Per Ardua. Good luck to you Elon.
Given that The Boring Co. already exists, I wonder if he might change his tune and go with a The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress model, in which virtually everything is underground. That plan saves on a lot of materials and provides a built-in at least mostly finished pressurizable space - I would suspect it would cost a lot less to spray a thin membrane over internal rock walls to hold atmosphere (assuming there will be fractures and fissures in the rock) than to pressurize an above-ground dome.
You probably don't have to pressurize to a full atmosphere - lots of humans and animals thrive at less than that, at elevation. And we're all (except maybe Althouse) used to being at about 10,000 feet-equivalent in planes, if memory serves.
Freder Frederson said...
Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat.
Considering the cosmic radiation on Mars is already 1000x that of Earth, I think a few nukes may be the least of his worries.
I imagine what he's really learning from buying twitter is that rule by consensus will never work.
For a smaller scale example of why, a while back there was a televised chess match between a grandmaster and the popular vote of chess enthusiasts watching the game. I forget the details, but you can guess how the game went--having one side move by popular vote meant they always did the most obvious thing. No multi-move strategies, no sly insights, no surprises were possible.
Direct democracy will always follow the lowest common denominator path.
"And we're all (except maybe Althouse) used to being at about 10,000 feet-equivalent in planes, if memory serves."
Who would get into the tube that is a plane if you knew you would never get out? It's just life in the tube forever.
"a citizen-led government that rules by consensus"
Who would agree to submit to be marooned on a place that promises a citizen-led government that rules by consensus? Remember these citizens will all be the weirdos who submitted.
None of that is new information. Musk has always been very open about his views on Mars.
Who would get into the tube that is a plane if you knew you would never get out? It's just life in the tube forever.
Japanese shut-ins?
I suspect that a lot of the early Mars population will be there for only a couple of years- scientists, workers, and such- but that you'll slowly get a small subset who decide that they like it. However, it's never going to be the massive population of science fiction.
"Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat."
Actually, they don't if you do it right. But I don't see how they warm the planet, unless they're used in a terraforming scheme.
A very interesting and confusing fact about Martian radiation is that background atmospheric and soil radiation levels are consistent in comparison with large thermonuclear type detonations due to the presence of large amounts of 17 to 21 MeV neutrons.
In other words, there really isn't a good explanation for background Martian radiation except A) there was a massive thermonuclear exchange at some point in the distant but not ancient past of Mars, B) large exoplanetary impacts with bodies containing large quantities of iridium or Uranium 235 that coalesced during impact to generate fissile critical masses, or C) a natural runaway fission process occurring with large, ancient radioactive deposits similar to those in Oklo, Gabon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor).
(A) is highly implausible, but it does create very interesting possibilities for science fiction.
He is S.R. Hadden.
Field Marshall Freder: "Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat."
Yeah, the physics dude/rocket engineering design leader/revolutionary space development genius/energy storage leader whose vision has propelled him to the position of richest dude in the world doesn't know any of that.
Are you moron lefty Lilliputian little brains finished embarrassing yourself for the day or are you just really getting started?
Actually, they don't if you do it right.
If you could produce a thermonuclear explosion without a Plutonium pit or Tritium this might be true. I do not believe that technology exists.
However, it's never going to be the massive population of science fiction.
In real science fiction, the kind where the authors were often scientists or engineers and calculated things, I don't think it was ever assumed that a "massive" population would emigrate. Extraterrestrial human populations grew by breeding, just like terrestrial ones.
Two other stories come to mind - The Marching Morons, I think it was called, in which some global government understood to convince all the people at the lower end of the IQ bell curve, as well as anyone who wasn't productive, that living on - was it Mars? I don't recall - was like living in a resort. So they boarded spaceships in their millions and were shot out of the atmosphere to nowhere.
And of course Hitchhikers' Guide, in which the home world was imminently going to be attached by a space chicken or something, so it was determined that everyone should evacuate in there enormous vessels. The A Ark would contain all the thinkers and inventors, the C Ark would contain all the actual workers, people who could do things, and the B Ark did contain all the middlemen. And the B Ark was sent off first, for reasons that made sense to its denizens at the time, but that now they didn't quite recall. And it was intended to crash-land on the destination planet, for similar reasons. And the planet turns out to be (spoiler alert for the two people who haven't read it) Earth.
In contrast, you have all the Golden Age authors who posited that it would be primarily the most motivated, intelligent, and capable people who would emigrate.
Jamie: "Given that The Boring Co. already exists, I wonder if he might change his tune and go with a The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress model, in which virtually everything is underground."
Mars was and is and will remain the primary goal for Musk's vision of human interplanetary expansion over the moon for several key reasons, which includes survivability at a distance (the moon could be compromised too easily by negative earth impacts) as well as availability of fuel resources needed to support spaceflight operations from Mars.
But hey, I am sure Field Marshall Freder has some cool insider type info he could use to really bring Musk up to speed on the science and tech of it all.
"In his 2013 interview for the science video, he said he hoped to create his own species on Mars..."
Reavers. He's gonna create the Reavers. Someone tell Nathan Fillion to suit up.
Prof. Althouse wrote: "Maybe you need to bioengineer them into not minding cruelty and extreme deprivation."
That work already has been done. "Nature, red in tooth and claw."
"Yes, make sure the city looks cool.". I read his intent there as similar to Steve Jobs being fanatical about circuit boards, no user would ever see, needing to look good. The idea seems to be every detail is important when creating a new thing, as that encourages deep overall coherence.
Do not forget that its highly likely that there will be large multiple waves of Tesla bots/Optimus that will do a great deal of work with the astonishing amount of cargo and prefabricated facilities made possible by Starships gargantuan capacity.
And with the carry over production at scale techniques from Tesla, the efficient cost effective designs of Starship, making permanent drop off of tens if not a hundred starships, creation of Martian factories that can produce all needed materials and goods made available by minibg ops, in fact factoies making factories, Musk's longterm goal of a million person colony on Mars quite realistic.
Considering the success of the Times in its predictions about the likely success of Twitter under Musk’s leadership (i.e., within epsilon of zero) you’d think they’d refrain from further comments on Elon Musk and his plans. They lack the creativity and the brains to grasp anything he does.
He is S.R. Hadden.
Or D.D. Harriman.
I am guessing the thermonuclear explosion part was taken way out of context. One way to possibly use such explosions to warm Mars is to liberate the CO2 at the poles. Now, I don't think it would do much to warm Mars- Mars is just too far from the Sun for any greenhouse effect to warm the planet to even an average temp of 0 F, and the CO2 liberated would eventually all redeposit as dry ice, at least that part of it that didn't get blown away out of Mars' gravity well by the Sun.
Freder Frederson said...
"Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat."
He knows. Better than you. Obviously, any thermonuclear device would not be exploded near any populated areas and, if done right, the radiation would quickly dissipate. Just look at Hiroshima. It's a beautiful, thriving city with normal background radiation today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQUvfJcbhk
I think Musk will die on Earth. We might get men on Mars before his death though. I hope to see it happen before I die but don't expect to.
Mars was and is and will remain the primary goal for Musk's vision of human interplanetary expansion over the moon for several key reasons, which includes survivability at a distance (the moon could be compromised too easily by negative earth impacts)
I wasn't suggesting that Musk change destinations - only that he consider going underground on Mars, for the same reasons that Heinlein suggested it in TMIAHM: it ought to be cheaper, and it minimizes the possibility of a catastrophic decompression.
"The Expanse" had an interesting take on life on Mars and in the Asteroid Belt. The government of Mars was, appropriately, bellicose, and the Belters, a perpetual underclass with physical infirmities due to low gravity, were drones who were exploited. They followed an organizer who harassed both Earth and Mars with a view toward interstellar domination.
No matter how interplanetary colonization plays out, the human condition continues as such.
Ann Althouse said...
"Remember these citizens will all be the weirdos who submitted."
Maybe you should ask the weirdos who submitted to live at Palmer Station?
As I keep saying, the lack of a Martian magnetic field means Oxygen generated to form a breathable atmosphere will be continually scoured off by the solar wind when it rises into the upper atmosphere. So terraforming the atmosphere will not work.
But I wish Musk well, as he has already fundamentally changed the nature of rocket technology. His launches have sent SIX THOUSAND TONS of payload into orbit, including more than 5000 comms satellites. He's obviously made great strides toward fulfilling his long-term objectives.
Still, Isuspect anyone actually travelling to Mars to live there will have a dismal underground existence.
They filmed a lot of the exterior scenes for the movie "The Martian" in Jordan. Maybe Musk should try and buy some land there and pretend he's on Mars.
Sure, settling Mars may be his ultimate goal, but I expect that his intermediate goal is industry in space around Earth. Likely much faster to self replicating self sufficiency.
What a government by consensus might look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBHrS_2aRP0
Freder Frederson said...
Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat.
You think saying something stupid and pretending Musks thinks that is a good idea says a lot about the people your are trying to impress.
Democrats are just stupid people.
One thing that is readily apparent is that Elon Musk is much more intelligent and knowledgeable and capable that you are.
You are actually pretty clearly below average. Today you have just been spectacularly stupid in multiple posts.
Bruce Hayden: "Sure, settling Mars may be his ultimate goal, but I expect that his intermediate goal is industry in space around Earth. Likely much faster to self replicating self sufficiency."
Its not.
Its Mars. First and foremost.
Now, contractually, if there are other entities with other goals that want to contract with SpaceX for objectives that can be derivations off the largest objective and wont alter SpaceX primary objective focus and are willing to pay for the privilege, then SpaceX is all ears.
Outside party satellite delivery to orbit, general mass to orbit for other parties, support for NASA "cutting edge" (wink wink) delivery of a few dudes to the moon (feel like I've seen that one before), Cargo and Crew Dragon for ISS support, 3rd party comms networks, sure. All good money makers along the way.
But make no mistake: its Mars.
Unless, of course, Field Marshall Freder and the LLR-democraticals and New Soviets Democraticals et al use weaponized govt and courts to steal Musk's businesses.
Mars was and is and will remain the primary goal for Musk's vision of human interplanetary expansion over the moon for several key reasons, which includes survivability at a distance (the moon could be compromised too easily by negative earth impacts) as well as availability of fuel resources needed to support spaceflight operations from Mars.
BUT he is planning a base on Moon to use as a stepping stone to Mars travel.
Mike: "BUT he is planning a base on Moon to use as a stepping stone to Mars travel."
That's NASA's vision that Musk is happy to collect a pretty paycheck to support.
If anyone believes NASA can rely on ULA (Lockheed Martin + Boeing Space) with Blue Origin (Bezos engines( to get it done, it would take 30 years...maybe.
Mike: "BUT he is planning a base on Moon to use as a stepping stone to Mars travel."
I don't think so. Why battle gravity twice. It would be much easier to put a refueling station and habitat in high earth orbit and fuel up and stock up from there. That's a lot less mass you have to get off the ground.
Blowing off nuclear bombs high in the atmosphere mitigates particulate radioactive particles.
I love a Star Trek future. I hope Musk succeeds.
However, what is his plan for sharing his successes with the rest of humanity? Most inventors either want to impact society or have an ego that demands the credit for it. A branch of humanity will live on Mars and go its own way? That seems weird, even on a Musk scale.
If you wanted to terraform Mars, you would have to raise its mass significantly and try to give it a magnetic field which can be done but is beyond our capabilities right now. It is a pity that we can't physically combine Mars with one of Jupiter's larger moons.
Kate: "I love a Star Trek future. I hope Musk succeeds.
However, what is his plan for sharing his successes with the rest of humanity? Most inventors either want to impact society or have an ego that demands the credit for it. A branch of humanity will live on Mars and go its own way? That seems weird, even on a Musk scale."
Interestingly, Musk is a huge fan of the Asimov's Foundation Series, where just that sort of thing, by necessity, will occur as distances become vast...and just from Earth to Mars is vast enough.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/elon-musk-recommends-science-fiction-book-series-that-inspired-spacex.html
From Elon's X feed just today:
Elon Musk@elonmusk
"Asimov's Foundation series was part of the inspiration for making life/consciousness multiplanetary.
Being multiplanetary greately extends the probable lifespan of civilization.
We must build Terminus."
3:13AM 11 Jul 24
A funny response seen on X to Musk's "extend human life" viewpoint is that instead of building a colony on Mars, just send Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab to Mars to have humanity flourish!
I don't think colonizing Mars is feasible but attempting it will lead to developing the technology needed to mine the asteroid belt.
We can adapt comfortably to a 10 or even 15 thousand foot atmosphere but that assumes 780,000ppm nitrogen, 210,000 ppm oxygen.
Suppose you increased oxygen to 310,000ppm. Could we survive at 40,000 feet?
How important is the atmospheric pressure (14.7psia sea level) if there is enough oxygen?
Anyone know?
John Henry
"I don't think colonizing Mars is feasible but attempting it will lead to developing the technology needed to mine the asteroid belt."
Increasing the supply of natural resources and improving the standard of living of everybody here on earth? The "End of the World Climate Alarmists" won't like that one little bit.
SNHU would occasionally turn me loose to teach Undergrad economics.
I would use The Moon is a harsh Mistress as a supplemental text.
I am glad to see so many favorable mentions here.
It is perhaps the greatest economics novel ever written. Tied with Atlas Shrugged.
I'm pretty sure I've compared Musk to Delos D Harriman before in these comments as well.
I can see Musk getting a Mars colony going then being forbidden to go by shareholders, govt, doctors, age
I also see him bootlegging a spaceship and going Anyway
John Henry
I wonder if Musk has any ideas for dealing, long-term, with Martian gravity, which is about 40% of Earth's. I suppose over time -- a long, long time! -- human muscles/skeletons could adapt to lower gravity but that could take 1000s of years. What to do in meantime for permanent residents?
He's trying harder than the rest of the world to propel life beyond earth.
A noble goal.
If he fails, at least he tried.
People who hate Elon are usually leftists ideologues anyway, so fuck 'em.
'Guess he doesn't know that Thermonuclear explosions release a whole lot of radioactivity as well as heat.'
I think he knows.
Last I checked he's just a bit smarter than your average Democrat...
Dr. Robert Zubrin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin) has a new book out 4/2024: “The New World on Mars” and in this book Zubrin says that Elon Musk with his SpaceX company has reduced the cost of putting payload in Earth orbit by orders of magnitude. Zubrin goes on to discuss the natural resources available on Mars, including large reserves of water ice available at certain locations.
If you have water ice, you have oxygen to support life.
And hydrogen for energy.
You just need to separate the h2o molecule.
John Henry
Who didn’t know this about Elon Musk that it is “news”. SpaceX was created to build the rockets to get to Mars. Musk knew he would need better batteries to store power getting and at Mars, so he created Tesla to both perfect batteries and vehicles. He knows that living underground would be best, because there isn’t trees and other stuff to use as building supplies, so he created the Boring Company to burrow living spaces underground. Yes, all his business endeavors are to get him to Mars. Starlink will give him a GPS and communication network for Mars that rivals Earth.
Joe Smith: "Last I checked he's [Musk] just a bit smarter than your average Democrat..."
The average goldfish is smarter than your average democrat.
Musk ==== Ozzy [mandias]
Mars ==== Xanadu - rename
If you have water ice, you have oxygen to support life.
===========
earth can then export carbon!!!
John Henry
About 1% of earths. Not very much.
I grew up in the 1950's reading the sci-fi of the '40's and thereafter. In my early teens I assumed that when I grew up I would see great satellite wheels orbiting the Earth (like in "2001 a Space Odyssey") and would be able to visit Luna and Mars in my lifetime.
OK, that didn't happen. For example, we used to imagine that Venus was a "water planet, as Mars was a "desert planet". See non-scientist C.S. Lewis's wonderful novels.
But I DENY any claim that humans won't establish settlements on Luna, and Mars, and beyond.
We CAN'T LIMIT THE HUMAN RACE TO the world of Trump and Biden. We never have.
While I greatly admire Mr. Musk and his creation of Space X, the premier space travel organization (suck slough water NASA). This whole colonize Mars/Moon or whatever planet/planetoid only works in fiction. Craters on Mars/Moon are pretty indicative of many destructive meteor strikes so the whole dome thing seems pretty sketchy. Of course mankind can go subterranean there, but can do that here for less moola! As one may guess, I'm an O'Neill space habitat true believer, The High Frontier.
"Craters on Mars/Moon are pretty indicative of many destructive meteor strikes so the whole dome thing seems pretty sketchy."
Meteors strike the earth, too. With the same frequency? I don't know. But there's weather here to obliterate the evidence.
MikeD: "As one may guess, I'm an O'Neill space habitat true believer, The High Frontier."
I am an "All Of The Above" type of fellow, so your challenge is accepted.
ron winkleheimer:
I don't think colonizing Mars is feasible but attempting it will lead to developing the technology needed to mine the asteroid belt.
If you have the tech to mine the belt, you have the tech to mine Saturn's rings where there is all the water you can manage.
Neither of those need be done by humans and at SpaceX's current goal of 144 launches this year alone, once liberated of the governmental impositions here, that can and will skyrocket. {Beavus}Heh, skyrocket. Heh.{/Beavus}
So a fleet of drones built on Mars and mining both the belt and rings will provide enough raw materials for humanity for quite a while. One asteroid and no more precious metal issues. Asteroid 16 Psyche is estimated to have resources currently worth $10,000,000,000,000,000,000 (that's quadrillion), for instance.
Humans will live subterranean (yes that's correct, I looked it up) there and the habitat will be as luxurious at the finest of an all amenity hotel. We already have physical training in orbit now, at 40%g it will be easier than that. The colonization will not be like here with people everywhere doing whatever. It will be a hive of tech and industry.
One interesting possibility will be Mars becoming the center of human society, leaving Earth to be turned into a huge park.
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