- Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
- Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
- California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
- Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
- Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
- Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
- Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
- Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
Meanwhile, Trump beats Joe Biden by only 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. That is, Biden loses to Trump by only 3 percentage points. All those other possibilities are worse: Harris loses by 6, Bernie by 6, Newsom by 8, Gore by 5, Hillary by 7, Warren by 10, Buttigieg by 10, Shapiro by 8, and Whitmer by 10.
I like how the most surprising inclusion — Gore — does best.
Saddest exclusion: Kerry. If Gore is in, it's mean to leave out Kerry.
Most interesting effect on Trump: Shapiro. Trump is at 48 or 48 for everyone else, but slips to 46 for Shapiro. There's a lurch toward undecided.
Posts
78 comments:
Nobody knows who Shapiro is.
I might switch to undecided bc Shapiro is attractive.
Why didn’t they poll FDR?
…last I heard Biden isn’t going anywhere. Why the polling? Are they trying to hurt Biden’s chances?
Jimmy Carter, like Trump, is still eligible for a second term.
What did the Democrats think was going to happen? If you didn't want Biden to run for re-election, you had to primary him. He is NOT taking the hint, Garland will be marched out in handcuffs is he tries to prosecute the Bidens, and all the alternatives are even more extreme.
It makes sense that the polls would be a relative advantage for a President, even an awful one.
Shorter Emerson College Polling: Ohpleaseohpleaseohplease!
Poll is wrong.
Bernie Sanders is not now and never has been a member of the Democrat Party.
Not in 40 years in politics.
John Henry
I'm sorry, but why does Pete Buttigieg show up on these lists? He's been a failure as Transportation Secretary.
This shows how weak the Democrat bench is, if this bunch of losers and has-beens is all they could come up with.
Biden might fare better than the others today (extraordinary enough in itself), but he has one more debate with 2 more months of decline before he gets there. So unless this is all one big rope-a-dope, when it’s over, the Dems will be looking back on June 27 as a fond memory.
Meanwhile, Trump beats Joe Biden by only 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. That is, Biden loses to Trump by only 3 percentage points
I think Ann is trying to imply how poor a candidate Trump is but all I see is what poor human beings Biden voters are...
Josh Shapiro has been very low-key, even here in PA, though with (D) majorities in both houses of the Legislature, there's not a lot of drama. He did promise to OK funding for private schools in 2023, then reneged after opposition from his party, before the bill was signed. Now he's also looking to cut funding for cyber charter schools.
"There's a lurch toward undecided."
For a minute I though you were talking about John Kerry.
What I find interesting is that the Dems apparently thought they could win with Biden. But how could they have thought that his cognitive decline wouldn't be exposed in the debates? Did they think they could push him over the finish line with a combination of gaslighting and election fraud? Or was the plan always to replace him at the convention? I think the latter. And i think the plan was and is to parachute Michelle Obama onto the ticket at a time ate in the game when she has to do very little campaigning and there isn't much time for her to be exposed to the electorate. She may be lazy, as others say, but as she is a committed lefty, I firmly believe she longs to wield power. I sure hope I'm wrong about all this, but I fear this is the plan. The Trump campaign better be ready for her.
Sorry, but that is a very silly exercise.
Did they think they could push him over the finish line with a combination of gaslighting and election fraud?
They still believe that. I still believe it, too. Mostly for that second part...
I found it both hilarious and disturbing that Dan Rather constantly mispronounced "Kerry" as "Kennedy" over and over while the 2004 returns were coming in.
Of course it's only one poll, but:
Trump 46 Biden 43 (11% undecided / neither)
Trump 49 Harris 43 (8% undecided / neither)
No one has preferences Harris > Trump > Biden
Therefore the 49% who prefer Trump to Harris must include all 46% who prefer Trump to Biden plus an additional 3% who are undecided / neither between Trump and Biden but get off the fence and choose Trump over Harris.
That's how bad Harris is!
"Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg"
Say what?! I wonder if they used that title in their polling. Sheesh.
Did they poll for Gore with a beard, or without?
MadTownGuy said...
Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro crosses partisan school choice divide
7/9/24, 3:57 PM
Not that I thought Biden was leaving, but Shapiro is toast. Aside from the Gaza problem, the teacher's unions will NEVER tolerate this and it's too easy for Trump to use it as a wedge for the rest of the year.
The problem for the Democrats isn't Joe Biden- it is the policies the Democrats have had since January 2021- that is why Biden is running behind. The people pushing the idiotic policies are trying to use Biden as a scapegoat.
Queen Michelle as President. Serving again as a beard for Barack. But hey, Barack's fourth term --and maybe fifth if Moochie can hang in there--and the destruction of America will be complete.
"Meanwhile, Trump beats Joe Biden by only 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. That is, Biden loses to Trump by only 3 percentage points"
One problem with this particular poll is that 11% are not declaring. In the end, the percentages will add to 100% (assuming two candidates). Unless Biden wins the popular vote by about 2%, he probably loses in the electoral college. Put another way, Biden needs to get from 43% to 52% in order to win (he needs 9 of 11 undecided votes from this poll). Trump needs to get from 46% to 48% (he needs 2 of 11 undecided votes).
Four years ago, Biden was leading by 8 points. Biden is 12 points behind where he was four years ago and Trump is 12 points ahead in the RCP average. The problem with this particular poll is that 11% are not declaring.
I say bring back Al Gore. America was wrong Al, come back. And bring Tipper with you.
And if we can't get Al Gore, there's another man who's tanned, fit, and ready: John Edwards.
What about cardboard cutout labeled - "to be named later".
Or Unknown (D).
So 40% of the population is core Democrat and will vote for any Dem. There is a small variation a few points above and below depending on the name recognition of the particular Democrat candidate. Trump gets core republicans at 40pct plus about 5 pct more in independents who poll for him.
Trump is up by 3.3% on average nationally at RCP, and Republicans are competitive at minus 2% because due to concentrations of Dems in certain states, the Reps can win the electoral college while loosing a few pct of the popular vote. So Trump is ahead now by 4 to 5 pct.
It will be funny when Beiden wins with 100 MM votes with Trump getting 90 MM. I expect to see ballots crawling down the sidewalk jumping into the drop boxes! There will be a 99 pct turnout!
Courts will say, but it’s too late to do anything now! No, make the highest non candidate on the succession list, Speaker Johnson, temporary president and have a new election.
Inflation and interest rates were key factors in the election. My sense is that nobody cares any more, the only thing people look at for the election is Biden's intellectual and physical decline.
LLR-democratical Rich: "Inflation and interest rates were key factors in the election. My sense is that nobody cares any more, the only thing people look at for the election is Biden's intellectual and physical decline."
So hilariously and ridiculously wrong. And Dumb.
Per usual.
prominent / infamous - potato / pototo
Most of the country has realized this is not Liberal vs. Conservative anymore.
It is Globalist vs. Americans First.
Democrat party policies are just universally unpopular because they are globalist policies.
The S.S. Joe Biden hit an iceberg at the debate and is sinking. The Dims are rushing for the lifeboats--but is there a lifeboat or a candidate on board to serve as a lifeboat. Sorry charlie, the lifeboats were all left behind before the ship sailed.
Original Mike said...
I'm sorry, but why does Pete Buttigieg show up on these lists? He's been a failure as Transportation Secretary.
7/9/24, 3:43 PM
And Hillary was a gift from heaven?!?
This poll did not include Michele.
Right now they are just calculating/guessing how many ballots they will have to mail in to install Michelle.
They know they cannot credibly claim 90 million votes for a democrat president. 81 million already made it clear they were just mailing in millions of ballots.
The key is keeping the people from uniting in a demand for a free fair election with paper ballots on one day with ID.
In a real election you would see incumbents, both Republican and Democrat, get wiped out. There is a reason that congress has a 15% approval rating and a 95% re-election rate.
The voter fraud is not partisan. It was Republicans that installed Joe Biden. Republicans are mailing in ballots too.
I'd guess that 3% swing from Trump to Shapiro are the folks who care about Israel's survival but aren't enthusiastic MAGAs. I don't think he's very well known so I'd expect undecideds to go up.
One problem with this particular poll is that 11% are not declaring.
Undecideds usually break pretty strongly for the challenger. But in this Clevelandesque re-election attempt, Trump is not your typical challenger. Hard to figure how it will go, but I will speculate that he picks up 7% from this undeclared 11% for a comfortable but not thumping 53-47 victory with 330 electoral votes.
"What did the Democrats think was going to happen? If you didn't want Biden to run for re-election, you had to primary him."
The Dems don't intend to have a real primary ever, ever again.
"the Democrat bench is . . . [a] bunch of losers and has-beens". Yes, and that's how we got Biden. Four years ago the Dems realized that their only surviving active (serious) candidates were a faux Indian and a real Socialist, so they picked good old Joe out of retirement, and then Kamala to prove that they cared about women and "Coloreds".
Here in North Carolina, we keep electing Democrats as Governors, along with Republican super-majorities in the legislature. I don't think that works nationally, because Republican pols too often tend to go squish without strong Presidential leadership, but given the current disarray of the Democrats, a more politically savvy Pres. Trump could usher in a new Republican era.
They could run Sam Brinton, for those who don't think Pete Buttigieg is gay enough.
I'd like to see how this looks if Kennedy is included.
Whattabout Sam Brinton in a sunflower shift?
C'mon man.
Most interesting effect on Trump: Shapiro. Trump is at 48 or 48 for everyone else, but slips to 46 for Shapiro. There's a lurch toward undecided.
I think that is because "Shapiro" sounds Jewish (and he actually is a Jew).
So voters think Shapiro might actually be sane on Israel, whereas the rest of the Democrat party clearly wants to play footsie with the genocidal monsters at Hamas
Do you really think that those 43% would let Joe drive their kids to a play date on the other side of town? Ask those 11% too.
C'mon man!
Rory said...
"What did the Democrats think was going to happen? If you didn't want Biden to run for re-election, you had to primary him."
The Dems don't intend to have a real primary ever, ever again.
What the Party runners want, and what they're going to get, are two very different things.
They face a very serious problem, in that their Party is controlled at the low levels by lunatics, but at a National level those lunatics are pure poison.
They settled on Joe in 2020, because every younger Democrat either completely sucked as a candidate, or flamed out two - three weeks after (s)he got enough positive voter attention that people took a look, and then said "WTF?"
2024, everyone is going to get to audition. And it's going to be a total shitshow for the Dems
The Funniest Bush v Kerry Ditty
Good for 2-3 percentage points that year
Re: Mr. Majestyk:
What I find interesting is that the Dems apparently thought they could win with Biden.
They thought Trump was so incredibly toxic with the electorate that running a figurehead like Biden would still be safe. I think they just constantly misread voters' assessments of Trump because they're stuck in a bubble. E.g.,
They massively overestimate how bad the Capitoline Riot seems to voters. It's obviously not seen as "good," but I don't think the average voter thinks it was the darkest day for democracy or whatever rot the Democrats and Liz Cheney are putting out. As a result, they've invested lots of time and effort in trying to tie Trump to the rioters with basically no effect, and seem to be puzzled at why it isn't working.
They think voters will give a shit about a felony conviction for bookkeeping violations. Constantly repeating "convicted felon" and "34 counts" has also had pretty much no impact on Trump's electoral position, again to Democrats' (and journalists') surprise, confusion, and dismay. In fact, Trump routinely comes out ahead (by a small margin) in polls asking which candidate is better for protecting democracy, suggesting weakly that voters may actually be more concerned about politically motivated prosecutions than they are about January 6.
They think Trump's first term was a disaster. But polls generally suggest that on balance voters thought his first term was pretty good (albeit only by a small margin), and that Biden's first term has been pretty bad. They're confused that other people just didn't experience 2017-2020 the way they did.
And most significantly, I think they misread the 2020 election as a huge repudiation of Trump, as opposed to a marginal victory won largely because as of November 2020, we were stuck in the middle of the coronavirus, with Trump's CDC and advisors like Fauci and Birx constantly moving the goalposts and no exit in sight. If a successful vaccine had been announced October 1, with an aggressive rollout to begin in November, I honestly think Trump would have won. And Democrats and journalists have simply never come to grips with how contingent their victory in 2020 was on the US being mired in the middle of what was treated as an apocalyptic pandemic.
But I think that's how Democrat leaders and activists and the people around them actually think. They can't understand or accept that voters don't share their interpretations of January 6 or the Bragg prosecution, or that voters thought Trump's first term was better than Biden's. If Biden loses, they'll comfort themselves with the idea that it was because Biden was senile, even though even in his dotage, Biden now outperforms other Democrats.
@Rich
https://abcnews.go.com/US/credit-card-users-avoid-mounting-debt-bills-reach/story?id=106479070
"And Hillary was a gift from heaven?!?"
I didn't say I'd vote for her (and when given the chance, I didn't), but superficially she was the credentials; a Senator and Secretary of State. But Buttigieg is 42 with a weak resume.
'has', not 'was'
Ridin' with Biden!
There is a Greek tragedy feel to this situation. The dire inevitable outcome is obvious to all on the outside, but those able to exert any influence either refuse to accept it, or don’t want to be seen to wield the knife for fear it will exclude them from wearing the crown.
The Real Problem IS:
NONE of these numbers are beyond the margin of fraud.
When you show me a poll, that has Trump up 69% to 25%..
I will tell you that number is NOT beyond the margin of fraud.
to Repeat:
ASSUMING Biden doesn't take the money and run..
Biden will TRAGICALLY DIE..
By the end of the 1st night of the convention..
Possibly on TV..
A "grieving nation" will "rally behind" Moochelle O'Bama..
who will "win" with a vote "count" in excess of ONE HUNDRED MILLION
Polls don’t mean much.
I sure would feel better if once, just once, Trump could poll a number higher than 49. Apparently if Mickey Mouse was the opponent, Trump has a ceiling of 49%.
"I sure would feel better if once, just once, Trump could poll a number higher than 49. Apparently if Mickey Mouse was the opponent, Trump has a ceiling of 49%."
A Republican candidate has received in excess of 48% of the popular vote in exactly once in the last 8 elections- 2004.
Poor Bich- still hoping Biden gets the ax thinking it will change things.
Re: Grandpa Publius:
I sure would feel better if once, just once, Trump could poll a number higher than 49.
See recent polls here. CBS (6/28-7/2) has him at 50% (without forcing a response; Biden at 48%). Harris (6/28-6/30) has him at 52% vs Biden at 48% forced. If I'm reading it correctly Trump may actually have been at 53% forced in May.
Does Shapiro have long eyelashes?
Adding to Balfegor's excellent response to Mr. Majestyk's question
What I find interesting is that the Dems apparently thought they could win with Biden.
In addition to putting 'convicted felon' on 24/7 repeat, I think the Democrats thought the four persecutions in various courts would put Trump on the permanent defensive, constantly having to appear in court, and more consumed with his legal battles than the election. It just hasn't worked out that way, with apparently all but the cases brought by Bragg and James going down in flames, and the James case (and E. Jane Carroll) basically disappearing from the news at this point, with the Bragg case on life support after the USSC immunity ruling. Biden was going to be able to run a basement campaign again from the Hillary playbook, showing up at carefully managed events with moderate but enthusiastic crowds that would look good on TV. They never imagined Trump would pull thousands to a park in Brooklyn (IIRC the location correctly) or the Jersey Shore, or be able to keep up his rally schedule in the face of multiple legal battles.
I think they also banked on a much more divided GOP, not a series of primaries that were largely non-events after Iowa, another distraction to keep Trump from consolidating his base and reaching out beyond it.
Okay, I feel “a little” better. But given the weakness of Democrats in 2024, we Republicans should be disappointed with anything short of a landslide that produces healthy majorities in House and Senate. I am not saying Trump can’t. I hope does. But if he doesn’t, we blew a tremendous opportunity.
Sorry, that;s
2028, everyone is going to get to audition. And it's going to be a total shitshow for the Dems
RCOCEAN II said...
"And if we can't get Al Gore, there's another man who's tanned, fit, and ready: John Edwards."
He's in Minnesota herding cats.
Greg the Class Traitor said...
"Most interesting effect on Trump: Shapiro. Trump is at 48 or 48 for everyone else, but slips to 46 for Shapiro. There's a lurch toward undecided.
I think that is because "Shapiro" sounds Jewish (and he actually is a Jew).
So voters think Shapiro might actually be sane on Israel, whereas the rest of the Democrat party clearly wants to play footsie with the genocidal monsters at Hamas."
I wonder how that would play in key states with narrow margins like Michigan.
After all the polling indicating Trump with a strong lead against all comers, CNN this evening agreed w guest that anti-MAGA is largest voting block. We’re informed by idiots.
Send in the Kennedy as the vote won't be head to head
All I see is Karma... for all the TDS... inditements... kangaroo courts... just everything the Democrats have done to bankrupt and destroy Trump... and now Karma... payback will be a bitch.
Biden has the delegates.. and they don't have enough votes for the 25th Amendment.. So it will be Biden .vs. Trump... and Trump will win the WH.. Republicans will win both Houses of Congress, and Trump gets another SCOTUS pick..
Karma is a bitch... tough nuts. Reap what you sow.
Kerry is not a boomer, almost as old as Biden. Will be 81 on inauguration day. Gore is younger than Trump.
“If Gore is in, it's mean to leave out Kerry.“
No, it’s mean to include Gore.
“Trump beats Joe Biden by only 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. That is, Biden loses to Trump by only 3 percentage points.”
But only if the 11% remain undecided.
Balfegor,
"If a successful vaccine had been announced October 1..."
Now there's some magical thinking, right there!
Given the shockingly brief and inadequate testing the mRNA products received, how could you possibly tout them as "successful" before the fact?
The Democrats can only win when their candidate can be sold as a moderate. None of those mentioned above meet that criteria. There is someone they could sell that way,and he's said to leading the effort to get Democratic senators to lean on Biden to drop out. That would be Virginia's senior senator Mark Warner.
You forgot PolPot.
If it came down to the choice of Trump or Pol Pot Democrarts would vote for Pol Pot.
Rusty said...
You forgot PolPot.
If it came down to the choice of Trump or Pol Pot Democrarts would vote for Pol Pot.
7/10/24, 7:31 AM
Well nuts, if you are going to go there, I would bet that more Democrats would actually prefer the literal Hitler over Trump. Hitler is just an abstract to them, a name that is "super bad" whereas for them Trump IS the physical embodiment of BAD.
That would actually be an interesting poll both on collage campuses and a random sample of registered Democrats: If you had to choose between either Trump or Hitler for POTUS, which would you?
Re: Kirk Parker:
Given the shockingly brief and inadequate testing the mRNA products received, how could you possibly tout them as "successful" before the fact?
October 1 might be aggressive, but all Pfizer would have had to do is apply their original testing protocol. Instead, they collected samples but sat on them until shortly after the election. Pfizer's November 9, 2020 press release discloses that the original protocol was to analyse after 32 cases. Then they discussed with the regulator holding off until they had 62, but by the time those discussions were concluded, they had 94. If they'd run the interim analysis at 32 cases, as originally planned, they'd have been in a position to report favourable news far, far earlier. Given early voting, the news would probably have had to come out in early October to shift votes enough to help Trump, but that seems possible, perhaps even probable, if Pfizer hadn't changed their protocol midstream.
The bottom line: we have no chance to have any but a terrible POTUS in the next term, and of all the terrible choices, the worst (Trump), will likely win.
Rocco said...
Greg the Class Traitor said...
So voters think Shapiro might actually be sane on Israel, whereas the rest of the Democrat party clearly wants to play footsie with the genocidal monsters at Hamas."
I wonder how that would play in key states with narrow margins like Michigan.
I expect it would kill them with Muslim voters, and pro-Palestinian voters.
I think one thing that these polls can't take into account is the "DEI backlash" if the DNC were to pass over Kamala for anyone else.
IOW, when people answer these questions, it's always with the mindset of "who would I vote for if this person became the Dem nominee without any major trauma?"
But there will be major trauma if KH is skipped over.
Even more major trauma if the "black female VP" is booted to the side so that a Jewish white male can head the ticket.
Robert Cook: "The bottom line: we have no chance to have any but a terrible POTUS in the next term, and of all the terrible choices, the worst (Trump), will likely win."
Since you are an unreconstructed Stalinist, thats quite an endorsement for Trump! He ought to pay you for that...but I know that would violate your marxist "principles"...such as they are.
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