Kerry had a one-point advantage (48% to 47%) among 18- to 49-year-old voters just before the Republican National Convention, but now Bush enjoys a 13-point lead among this group (54% to 41%). This represents a net increase in Bush's standing of 14 percentage points.Hmmm.... 18-49 is a pretty large group. Why put three decades of age in that group and only 15 years of age in the "middle age" group? I know some people in their 40s chafe at being called middle aged, but that shouldn't affect Gallup. Anyway, I suppose we should conclude that the convention was well crafted to win over the non-old.
The other two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.
September 17, 2004
The new Gallup poll shows a huge, recent change in the opinion of voters under age 50: