December 4, 2020

"Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 118.5 million people across the United States. When it comes to Wisconsin, we think you’re behind 2.1 million others who are at higher risk in your state."

"And in Dane County, you’re behind 150,900 others. If the line in Wisconsin was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing...." 

I took the survey at "Find Your Place in the Vaccine Line" (NYT). Here's a portion of the line they've visualized for me:
I would not have put myself ahead of essential workers, teachers, and prisoners, because I am free to self-isolate.

105 comments:

Shouting Thomas said...

I am free to self-isolate.

Stop now, professor. You’ve lost it.

This is a wildly insane statement. It’s the statement of a prisoner of a totalitarian state.

The election was stolen. I no longer have any doubt. The Republic is under assault on all sides.

You’re not seeing reality.

Wilbur said...

I hear my High School PE teacher: "Hey Althouse! Get back in line".

wildswan said...

I'm in the same place in line as Althouse. And I really wonder if I'm at greater risk than homeless and prisoners to say nothing of essential workers who contact people all the time. Perhaps I'm at greater risk of falling into the deep end of covid, SARS, just as you might say I'm at greater risk of going into the pneumonia end of flu. But then this risk assessment seems to be saying that covid is no more of a risk than all the other possibilities attached on to being older unless I have an underlying condition. To test this I redid the test and claimed I had a health risk and instantly moved up to only 23 million ahead of me so that shows.

stevew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
David Begley said...

The NYT gets it wrong again. That cartoon figure that is supposed to represent Althouse does NOT have a crazy head of hair.

stevew said...

Well, this isn't so surprising:

"Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.
When it comes to Maine, we think you’re behind 1.1 million others who are at higher risk in your state.
And in York County, you’re behind 160,300 others."


Seeing as the population in Maine is 1.3m I won't be getting the vaccine anytime soon. If my risk profile is such that the urgency of getting me vaccinated is non-existent then it should be safe to go out and about without fear; no isolation required.

And don't get me started on the 100 day mask mandate (or is it a suggestion?).

Humperdink said...

I came at it 268 million in line, presumably because of my rural location. Not that it matters, the vaccine will not enter my body. I am not getting it for mankind, they may run out. *cough*

Right Man said...

When the vaccine is widely distributed what will be the excuse for the continued social distancing and mask fetish? Those are not going away.

Mike Sylwester said...

Ivor Cummins' new video about COVID-19 is an hour long, but I was captivated the entire time watching it. The various statistical graphs that were shown and discussed in the video were very illuminating.

A previous Cummins video explained why COVID epidemics are seasonal.

I had watched that previous video several times, but only by watching Cummins' new video did I realize a key consideration. Most COVID epidemics happen (in northern latitudes) during November-January. However, the COVID-19 epidemic's first wave happened during March-May. (The current second wave is happening, as usual, during November-January.)

Why did the COVID-19 epidemic's first wave apparently happen during March-May 2020?

I am a mere pedestrian on this issue, but I propose an explanation that I have not seen proposed elsewhere.

I think there was a COVID-19 first wave in the USA from November 2019 through January 2020, but it was a rather normal COVID-epidemic first wave. For example, everyone in my own household got quite sick -- fever and coughing -- during January. I have read that other people suffered similar sicknesses during that winter.

I think that the same epidemic happened in Wuhan, China, during November-January. Then, during the following few months, a significant number of Wuhan residents traveled from Wuhan to Milan, where many Chinese people work in the Italian garment industry. Some of those Wuhan residents traveled to Milan on normal business, but perhaps some of them traveled in order mainly to get away from the epidemic in Wuhan.

Thus, a particularly virulent strain of the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in Milan in late February. The Chinese workers in Milan were living in extraordinarily crowded and decrepit apartments and did not have easy access to the Italian medical system. Therefore, the epidemic exploded in Milan in late February and quickly overwhelmed the hospitals. From Milan, the epidemic spread quickly throughout Europe and then to the USA.

That is why the COVID-19 epidemic happened most obviously in March-May -- a delay of about four months after the usual COVID-epidemic season.

Furthermore, the disastrous situation in the Milan hospitals during late February created a world-wide hysteria that the epidemic would overwhelm all other hospitals similarly.

Whiskeybum said...

I've heard it argued that geriatric populations in locked-down facilities like nursing homes should NOT be the first in line for vaccination. Why? Because they are already in a quarantined condition. Instead, all of the people working in such facilities should be vaccinated first - they are the ones who could potentially be bringing the virus in from the outside. Next, people whose jobs are critical to the functioning of our economy AND who necessarily must come into contact with the public should be near the front of the line. In particular, teachers - it would remove their excuse for being paid to cower behind a video screen, while getting our low-risk young back to a true learning and social environment.

Remember, eventually everyone will have the opportunity to be vaccinated. The question is who should be in the early cohort. I think the above arguments have a lot of merit.

tim maguire said...

Priorities should be:

#1: people most likely to die
#2: people most likely to get and/or spread it
#3: everybody else

While I think they are making it more complicated than it needs to be, the government’s priorities roughly follow this common sense model. And we should open everything up as soon as #1 is done. That is, once the threat of future waves is removed, ending restrictions should be based on hospitalizations and deaths, not cases or positive test rate.

tim maguire said...

I used Brooklyn, NY as it was my last US residence. They have me standing 93rd in a line of 100 people.

Humperdink said...

Can we use the Covid vaccine (mandatory) ID card as a voter ID card? Or maybe a chip?

tim maguire said...

Blogger Shouting Thomas said...It’s the statement of a prisoner of a totalitarian state.

Thomas, you are the most totalitarian person on this blog. Not even the most shameless of our resident trolls blows a gasket like you do when someone disagrees with them.

Mike Sylwester said...

I speculate that the COVID epidemic that did happen in the USA from November 2019 to January 2020 was relatively ordinary. Most people who caught it were sick -- fever, coughing, etc. -- for some days and then recovered. Fortunately for those people, they became immune to the more virulent strain of the virus that spread in March-May 2020 and now is spreading again in November 2010 through January 2021.

Ten people gathered in our home this Thanksgiving. One of them works in a hospital that is treating many COVID-19 patients. Another of them recently had been tested for COVID-19 recently because he was about to get knee surgery. He tested positive for COVID-19 anti-bodies, even though he had not ever felt sick in previous months.

Like everyone in my household, my wife had got sick with fever and coughing in January. Now on two occasions in recent weeks she felt feverish and her temperature measured rather high. On both those recent occasions, she got tested for COVID-19, and both results were negative.

exhelodrvr1 said...

How long before a black market for the vaccine starts? (BTW, can we still say "black market?")

mandrewa said...
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Mike Sylwester said...

This is Ivor Cummins' best video explaining the basics of the COVID-19. He did this video on September 8, so a lot has happened since then. However, that video remains a superb introduction to understanding the epidemic.

rehajm said...

Creepy. What other lines has NYT been creating to rank the populace?

Chris of Rights said...

Heh. I told them I am an 82 year old health care worker with Covid related health risks. Bam! Front of the line!

rehajm said...

By the time they reach the end of the first third of the line nobody else will need it...

WK said...

Ha. I was last in line for my county in Ohio.
I would imagine around January 21st they’ll have a similar app to give you your place in line for the re-education camps. Answer a few questions about your support for Trump wrong and move to the front of the line.

iowan2 said...

Nobody is asking how these priorities square with lock down targets.
How does locking down gyms protect long term care facilities? Bars? Schools.

I've been asking since the beginning what the goal is. What were govt mandates meant to accomplish.

Now the vaccine priority list gives lie to the uselessness of govt experts.

mandrewa said...

I will try again.

Money doesn't grow on trees.

Businesses matter. Disproportionately it is businesses that do the productive things that make our lives possible.

Government workers are more consumers than producers. They consume resources that others produce.

But the left doesn't believe any of this. And if one wanted to exploit this epidemic to create as much destruction of the economy as possible, which although it may not be the conscious explicit goal of the left, is still somehow what it transforms into, then insisting that everyone be vaccinated would be the way to drag out this crisis out as long as possible.

The real risk of Covid-19 for either for being hospitalized or for dying is inordinately concentrated in the elderly.

Lyssa said...
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Whiskeybum said...

Althouse said...

"And in Dane County, you’re behind 150,900 others.

Ahhh... but comrade Althouse, according to our Dane County social credit system, you are -387,000 points in line for allowing right-wing provocateurs to express opinions in your blog comments without the obligatory shrieking denouncement of racism/genderism/climate-denial, etc. So, in reality, that put you at (let me check here, math is not my strong suit) - oh yes, about dead last.

But feel free to self-isolate as much as you like!

Signed, Your Dane County Ministry of Social Health

Lyssa said...

I came up with 126.5 million ahead of me. This seems bizarre, given that I’m 28 years younger than Althouse and consider my risk from the virus to be very minimal. But I did call myself an essential worker, because that’s what my company has termed us (I work in an essential industry, but in a fairly secluded office with no public contact; they have not had us work from home).

mockturtle said...

It's not as though people are champing at the bit to get this vaccine.

rehajm said...

What other lines has NYT been creating to rank the populace?

I seem to recall NYT discussing autonomous vehicles and programming who the vehicles should kill first in various traffic situations. I suspect that was fun for NYT...

Darrell said...

Wisconsin should do the vaccine like they did the voting.

PB said...

I've had the virus and now have immunity. I don't need a vaccine.

PB said...

The poll assumes that high risk from the disease is a key factor. Those who come in contact with many people should be high on the list as they will be key to stopping the most spread. When it comes to general innoculation, it means this in the 18-50 should get vaccinated before residents of long term care facilities.

Fernandinande said...

I told the nyt's AI that I was a 12-year-old health care worker and it didn't care.

Oso Negro said...

Teachers! Ha ha ha ha ha ha! Not only should they NOT get the vaccine, the country could be improved if they were deliberately infected.

Danno said...

Whiskybum said..."Next, people whose jobs are critical to the functioning of our economy AND who necessarily must come into contact with the public should be near the front of the line."

Grocery & (Walmart-type) stores are way more important than teachers and are exposed to way more people, so I disagree.

MadisonMan said...

Althouse, of course you are free to self-isolate. But don't you know that the Government knows better than you what your place in line should be?

john said...

Cute. No matter what I entered, I couldnt pass that old fart ahead of me.

john said...

Oops. I am that old fart.

stevew said...

"I've been asking since the beginning what the goal is. What were govt mandates meant to accomplish."

Similarly, I have been asking what set of conditions must we see in order to declare all is clear, return to normal? No one says. For some this is because they don't know, haven't a clue. For others it is because they enjoy the power trip of telling us all what to do.

Lewis Wetzel said...

Being a 97 year old front line health worker and school teacher with no fewer than 7 co-morbidities, as well as being a black transsexual lesbian, I am #1 on the list.

Laslo Spatula said...

I guess that essential workers should be glad that they are a bit ahead of prisoners.

I am Laslo.

Whiskeybum said...

Commenters objecting to my previous post stating that teachers should be vaccinated on the early side are missing the point:

Teachers are AMONG those who should be vaccinated early - so should a lot of other people who are required to come into contact with the public (police officers, food prep, grocers, etc.).

Teachers being vaccinated early allows kids back in school. Note that not all teachers are public school employees - many are private school employees who are being blocked from returning to their classrooms by public school policies (i.e., "we must treat all schools the same).

Kids back in school means that parents can now go about their jobs/professions without having to stay at home - a boon for the economy.

Kids having a normal life is key to their well-being.

Teachers (many of them anyway) would like nothing better that to work in their pajamas from home and draw full paychecks. This prioritization of their vaccinations is not necessarily for their benefit (although, it is indeed to their benefit), but to those relying on having a functioning education system. No excuses for staying away! BTW - if you don't like public education (and I agree with most of the arguments here), then what better time to move kids to alternative educational systems? But first, teachers have to return to the schools.

mockturtle said...

1. No one knows how long the vaccine-conferred immunity will last.
2. No one knows how long immunity lasts via infection with COVID19.
3. Fauci says we still need to wear masks and practice distancing because the vaccine effectiveness is only 90-95%.

Why bother?

Curious George said...

All I care about is what Ken B's mom's place is.

RK said...

I'm in my 60s, and they put me near the end at 267M behind all of the young people. WTF?

Fernandinande said...

Here's a long article -

Here's Why You Should Skip the Covid Vaccine

"The new Covid vaccines will make billions of dollars for the big pharmaceutical companies, but here’s what they won’t do:
The vaccines will not cure Covid
The vaccines will not prevent people from contracting Covid
The vaccines will not prevent Covid-related hospitalizations
The vaccines will not prevent Covid-caused deaths"

Dust Bunny Queen said...

It's ok . I don't plan to stand in line anyway since I won't be taking "the" vaccine for Covid.

I have never had a flu vaccine in my life and I never had the flu. Most of the people that I know who have had a flu vaccine have had really bad side effects.

Besides by the time a vaccine for a Covid or any Flu virus (which are basically the same) is available the virus has mutated so much that the vaccine is really ineffective. Ask them when they suggest you take a flu shot, WHICH version of the flu is this vaccine targeting. Watch for the deer in the headlights look 😮

Kai Akker said...

--- that video remains a superb introduction to understanding the epidemic.

Thanks for those links, Mike Sylwester 5:33 and 6:03. I just watched the Sept. 8 video; some new, some not-so-new, but excellent overall presentation. On to the more recent one.

Kai Akker said...

---Thomas, you are the most totalitarian person on this blog. Not even the most shameless of our resident trolls blows a gasket like you do when someone disagrees with them. [tim maguire]

Strong viewpoints and anger in disagreements = totalitarianism ?

Kai Akker said...

It's the ones who don't get angry that I would be watching the most closely.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Lewis Wetzel said...

Being a 97 year old front line health worker and school teacher with no fewer than 7 co-morbidities, as well as being a black transsexual lesbian, I am #1 on the list.

You could've probably beat that if you'd said you were undocumented.

Francisco D said...

mockturtle said...It's not as though people are champing at the bit to get this vaccine.

Mrs. Francisco, the HS Art teacher, is disturbed that AZ teachers may be required to get the COVID vaccine. If they refuse, they don't work and they don't get paid. She never took flu shots and never got the flu.

The government has already overstepped it bounds on COVID, but it will only get worse with the vaccines.

wild chicken said...

"the 18-50 should get vaccinated before residents of long term care facilities."

Oh great, so the residents still wouldn't be able to see family? Nice.

mandrewa said...

"2. No one knows how long immunity lasts via infection with COVID19."

The number of documented reinfections with Covid-19 is so small, five the last time I checked, that it's possible that they have been mistakenly identified as such and didn't really happen.

On the other hand, we have four other current endemic coronavirus epidemics, which we have had decades of experience with, and with all these other coronaviruses some people end up getting infected with the same thing over and over again. For some people it's even a yearly event.

So even though we haven't really seen it yet, the odds are very high that people will be repeatedly infected by Covid-19.

We also know from experience with these other coronavirus that antibody-mediated immunity after a coronavirus infection typically lasts for something like six months.

But it's also true that T-cell immunity lasts for a long time, possibly a life-time. So for all these other coronaviruses, which most people would describe as colds, the first infection is the worst with subsequent reinfections being relatively minor. Because after the first one they will have T-cell immunity.

We have every reason to suspect that the same will be true for Covid-19.

Unfortunately we don't know that.

And also unfortunately, even a cold will sometimes kill people, and in particular colds often kill people who are in their 80s.

So it will always be possible to pretend that Covid-19 is some huge threat. Because actually we could do exactly the same thing for the common cold.

mikee said...

Thanks for the reminder, I haven't gotten my flu shot yet this year.

Everyone should go and get your flu shots NOW if you have not done so already.

DavidUW said...

What will old people die from if they're not dying from the 'Rona anymore?

Question for all your state and local official bureaucrats who are ordering you about:

"What is the point at which enough people are vaccinated that you will stop ordering us about?"

They will not have an answer, because the answer is that they will continue requiring lockdowns and masks forever until enough people ignore them.

But I recommend starting the questioning now and maintaining the pressure. I for one plan to ask it in every (virtual) public school board hearing.

ga6 said...

And I am free (so far) to ignore the vaccine just as I have shunned flu shots for the last thirty years.

I am six months younger than the stuttering fool who kicks dogs.

Freeman Hunt said...

Ha! This even has my kids with no health risks in front of me. I guess they're putting kids in front because of schools.

mockturtle said...

I did get a flu shot. I won't get a COVID vaccine.

John henry said...

I had to claim Dane County WI. Puerto Rico doesn't come up. Nor does the county I grew up in. About 7 Warren Counties but Warren county NY doesn't come up.

I'm 73, essential worker, no particular health risks.

I said the other day that I wanted to be about the 100 millionth person. I have 118.5 million in front of me.

I understand that there are about 100mm doses on hand. So perhaps they'll run out before they get to me.

Suits me fine.

John Henry

Birkel said...

At that point in the queue, you will be protected by the herd.
Those who were infected plus those who have a vaccine mean you would be safe.
Or as safe as you need to be from a disease that 99.8% of people survive.

Joe Smith said...

You might be 'free' to self-isolate, but should you 'have to'?

Notice how the drawings of people with masks mostly look the same.

Is this the cure for racism? Put everyone in a mask and shield so nobody can tell who you are?

Joe Smith said...

"When the vaccine is widely distributed what will be the excuse for the continued social distancing and mask fetish? Those are not going away."

Saw something on Twitter:

'If masks work, why social distancing? If social distancing works, why masks? If both work, why a vaccine?'

Not sure I totally agree (convenience factor, for one), but interesting.

Kai Akker said...

---Most of the people that I know who have had a flu vaccine have had really bad side effects.[DBQueen]

My bicep was sore for the rest of the day this year.

That's the worst side effect I've experienced in 20 years of getting an annual flu shot.

The flu I got 21 years ago was really bad.

Good tradeoff for me.

Michael K said...

Well, at least Ann is not a Republican. That puts her ahead of 74 million Trump voters.

Joe Smith said...

"(BTW, can we still say "black market?")"

Yes you may, as long as 'Black' is capitalized, racist : )

Joe Smith said...

"You could've probably beat that if you'd said you were undocumented."

Now THIS is very interesting.

How will they hide the fact that illegals will get the vaccine before many legal American citizens?

Jupiter said...

"I would not have put myself ahead of essential workers, teachers, and prisoners, because I am free to self-isolate."

When you were a worker, were you an essential worker?

Jasmina Boulanger said...

I took the NYT survey and got a place in line. Then I checked on my Mom’s hypothetical place. She is 96 ... 30 years older than I am. She got the exactly the same results as I did. Hmmm. Oh, right, it’s the NYT trying to do math. Should have known better.

Roughcoat said...

I'm not essential. I'm expendable. Like John Wayne and George Montgomery in "They Were Expendable." Terrific movie, John Ford directing. I'm proud to be following in the Duke's footsteps.

rehajm said...

I'll get to goose Ann in line...

Yancey Ward said...

Think of it this way- 2.1 million people in Wisconsin get to be the guinea pigs for a couple of months or more before you have to take the vaccine. By that time you should have more information about the side effects.

My elderly mother is 72 and has type II diabetes, is obese, and has a heart arythmia problem, so she will probably get it early.

Yancey Ward said...

For what it is worth, this is how I would prioritize it:

(1) Residents of nursing homes and prospective hospital patients;
(2) Medical personnel of all kinds;
(3) People over the age of 70 who don't fall in the categories above;
(4) People who provide personal services like barbers and stylists;
(5) Teachers;
(6) People between 60-70 that don't fall in the above categories;
(7) Everyone else.

Yancey Ward said...

As to what to expect from the vaccine:

(1) With testing, you won't see much of a decrease in "positives"- I suspect the Biden Adminstration will make a priority of reducing testing levels the first month in office so that they can show some kind of "success" in stopping the virus;
(2) The vaccine will probably not be terribly effective 2 years from now- the virus will become endemic like influenzas A and B, and the later generations of vaccines will be about as effective as the flu vaccines are today;
(3) The elderly and infirm will continue to die from COVID and its later mutants from now on.

mandrewa said...

(1) Residents of nursing homes and prospective hospital patients;
(2) Medical personnel of all kinds;
(3) People over the age of 70 who don't fall in the categories above;
(4) People who provide personal services like barbers and stylists;
(5) Teachers;
(6) People between 60-70 that don't fall in the above categories;
(7) Everyone else.


That's pretty good!

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

DBQ, yesterday I took a cab home from the grocery store, and the cabbie was telling me that whatever vaccine we get will already be obsolete by the time it reaches us, as there have been two major mutations already, and people who have already had COVID once are therefore already getting it a second time. I don't think I quite believe that, but (as I told the guy) you need only listen to the lists of side effects in every damn TV commercial for a prescription pharmaceutical to wonder whether it's likely to do you more harm than good. Quick as a whip, he snaps back, "Yeah, like those antidepressants you're supposed to discontinue if they cause you to experience suicidal thoughts or actions, right?" Exactly right. "Or the ones that say they might result in involuntary muscle actions, which may be permanent," say I. "I'm a violinist/violist; I could really do without those." He: "Yeah, and I drive for a living. Me too." Point conceded, though I think they're talking about little twitchy spasms, not the sort of thing that makes you swerve into oncoming traffic . . .

I took the test, putting in honest info (and thinking only later about what other uses the NYT might make of it): Non-essential worker, 53, at least one comorbidity. Oddly, I came relatively high up in line. I don't actually remember what the results were nationwide, but I was maybe 300,000th in OR and 23,000th in Marion County. Either it knows more than I told it, or there's some pretty strong randomization in there.

n.n said...

Covid-19 -- A White Paper - To @RealDonaldTrump and @CDC*

Aside from Planned Parent, and progressive attribution to Covid-19 following April community suppression and the spikes correlated with June/July restrictive mandates, the cruise ship and other instances demonstrate that the risk is not correlated with age, but with certain comorbidities correlated with age and sanitary conditions and habits (i.e. fecal spread). That said, before accepting a vaccine and suffering related side-effects, people need to be tested for preexisting and acquired immunity, and for the factors that normalize disease progression.

Jim Gust said...

I'm with DBQ and mockturtle, I don't get flu shots and I won't get in line for the covid shot. We are not rare, we are normal.

If they have 100 million doses, it's about 50 million too many.

Mary Beth said...

"“It’s incredible that we have vaccines with high levels of initial efficacy in such a short period of time,” said Dr. Sema Sgaier, a co-founder and the executive director of the Surgo Foundation."

Incredible. It's also incredible (as in "not credible") that the news of the readiness of the vaccines all came out after the election.

Mary Beth said...

I had to claim Dane County WI. Puerto Rico doesn't come up. Nor does the county I grew up in. About 7 Warren Counties but Warren county NY doesn't come up.

If you type it in, it does (Warren County, NY, not Puerto Rico). I am in Jefferson County, KY and it was not showing as a choice when I typed "jefferson county", but when I put in the "k" for Kentucky, it showed. These are autofill suggestions, not a drop-down menu.

LA_Bob said...

RK said, "I'm in my 60s, and they put me near the end at 267M behind all of the young people. WTF?"

We over-60's may or may not be "deplorables", but we're increasingly "expendables".

LA_Bob said...

Yancey Ward said, "My elderly mother is 72 and has type II diabetes, is obese, and has a heart arythmia problem, so she will probably get it early."

I'm having trouble understanding how a vaccine -- any vaccine -- is supposed to protect vulnerable people like your mother. Even with an mRNA vaccine you need a functional immune system, right? The aged vulnerable have sub-functional immune systems. If those systems are sufficiently sub-functional, there's little hope besides isolation, right?

Very best wishes to you and your mother.

Readering said...

It's also incredible that news if covid didn't disappear after November 3.

Readering said...

In my county of 10 million the survey puts 7.9 million ahead of me. Patience.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Blogger Readering said...In my county of 10 million the survey puts 7.9 million ahead of me. Patience.

For me, my test results.

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 23.0 million people across the United States.

When it comes to California, we think you’re behind 2.6 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in XXXX County, you’re behind 14,500 others.


My line is pretty short...but then again considering that there are less than 200K people in the entire county...oh well. And there population density in my immediate area (50 x 50 miles 2500 square miles)....is less than the population of 1 square mile in NYC.....I'm not very worried about it.

Moot point on getting the vaccination. They aren't going to give it to rural deplorables. They WANT us to die anyway.

5M - Eckstine said...

I'm in the position that says vaccinate everyone else first. I'll volunteer to take it last.

Elliott A said...

To DBQ- This virus will not change nearly as much as flu since it does not have flu's intermediary host: birds, who reintroduce flu variants which have mutated in the birds. Also you have never been run over by a truck, but I bet you don't cross busy streets against the light with your eyes closed

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Elliott A said... To DBQ- This virus will not change nearly as much as flu since it does not have flu's intermediary host: birds, who reintroduce flu variants which have mutated in the birds. Also you have never been run over by a truck, but I bet you don't cross busy streets against the light with your eyes closed

Does a loaded logging truck count? It ran over me AND my vehicle. Fortunately only the latter was totaled 😎

We don't have street lights here. Although I must admit when I AM in an area with street lights, crosswalks and even sidewalks...I do check for traffic.

So the virus won't change "nearly" as much. However. It will change. Nearly was the weasel word in your statement.

tcrosse said...

Put the Karen’s at the head of the line so they’ll leave the rest of us alone.

mockturtle said...

The COVID19 virus has already mutated several times, according to many sources. Some mutations are more virulent than others.

mockturtle said...

Per DBQ: Moot point on getting the vaccination. They aren't going to give it to rural deplorables. They WANT us to die anyway.

Rural deplorables are probably the last people to even want the vaccine.

gpm said...

I am literally right behind Althouse.


--gpm

Yancey Ward said...

Bob, such people still have a functional immune system, at least most of them. Where they are in danger is the time it takes for that system to gear up and fight off an infection- 4 days with the flu can easily kill an old infirm person. It is why the elderly get the flu vaccines.

Yancey Ward said...

"Put the Karen’s at the head of the line so they’ll leave the rest of us alone."

I considered putting this at the top of my recommendations.😉

gpm said...

I take that back. I seem to be in exactly the same spot as Althouse, but some of the people are different and so are the numbers. It looks like these may be state-specific.

--gpm

Robt C said...

I'm behind @23 million others. So I'll get when, next April?

gpm said...

I see it actually says that the graphic line is state-specific in the text just before the line.

--gpm

elkh1 said...

You can always take my place in the line. You, like the rest of the herd, can develop immunity. In the meantime, I'll stay home for a little longer. When I got out of the house, I would enjoy the herd immunity too.

I'll take vaccine 2.0 next year if the virus comes back.

Tomcc said...

tcrosse: Put the Karen’s at the head of the line so they’ll leave the rest of us alone.
My friend, you do not understand Karens.

Since I retired, I have virtually little to no direct contact with other homo sapiens. A few close friends, but no long exposure. I still take precautions when I'm out, but I feel that my risk of getting COVID is very low. As a result, I'm not anxious to get vaccinated against it. Maybe V 2.0.

JackOfClubs said...

I'm ninetieth in line, five turns below Ann. Couldn't care less really as I think I may already have had it before it was a thing. That should be a question on the survey.

Anonymous said...

In the interest of Diversity & Inclusion, I freely donate my vaccine dose to anyone bitterly clinging to this life. Don't worry about me. I got one of the few bodies that has an immune system already built in. (Didn't know it was optional equipment, but there does seem
to be a lot of fearful people scrambling around to 'get their dose')

Scott said...

or you can just stop worrying about it and get on living

Gospace said...

One of the things I've read about the vaccines for the dreaded covid is- all of them so far have some serious side effects. Are those side effects- worse than the dreaded covid itself? Correlated with age? Going to be dangerous to the people who are at danger for the covid itself?

Of course, some of us will have no choice. I have to get the yearly flu vaccine. I work at a hospital. Notice- I said at, not in. In a wholly separate building watching boilers. My coworkers aren't really coworkers- if you define coworker as someone you actually work with. M, Tu-F I'll see more than 1 (sometimes) when I come in. S-S just 1, and only 1 when I'm relieved at midnight. No patient contact, almost no human contact. Great job for a misanthrope. But, because hospital- high on list for getting the vaccine whether I want it or not.

Bureaucracy cares not a whit about logic.

minnesota farm guy said...

I differ with a lot of you. I think that after health care workers we should be inoculating the folks who stock the shelfs, run small businesses, wait on people frequently ( grocery stores, etc.)food processors. I saw a piece today that pointed out these kind of "essential workers" tend to be ignored by our betters, but are really the essential element of the economy that our ultra educated news gatherers and politicians seem to think are beneath consideration.

Old people in nursing homes are already isolated and even if it makes for tear jerking news coverage they are headed for the exits by and large. Let's look at what we should be accomplishing through vaccination. The top priorities ( after health care workers - of all types) should be: getting kids back in school (inoculate teachers); reviving the small businesses that are being devastated; college students ( because they are too stupid to take precautions); the "healthy" elderly ( no more than 1 co- morbidity); those adults below the age of 50 in descending order age; and finally the frail elderly. But, but, but you say. My reasoning for essentially reversing the order is that nursing homes can be tightly controlled - people may make a stink, but we are talking about a small % of the population. Our chief concern should be for the future and getting kids back in school and reviving the economy are critical to our future as a country.

Anonymous said...

The thing I like about this blog is that most commenters here are Professionals who spent their lives studying. While working in your Professions, you still studied, constantly. This blog is like an encyclopedia. Too many to name, but thank you all for expressing yourselves here. Forgive me for intruding.

Now that I've buttered you up...

How does the creme d'la creme seek after a magic pill? A magic vaccine?

Most of us here have gotten old. The Hindus say that now is the time for spiritual pursuits. The children have been raised. The money has been earned. Some bitterly cling to the last Season, after the leaves have fallen. The last Season is the best one. Everything you've done has culminated in this last Season. It's glorious.

H/T Mock/Oso/DBQ