From "Iowa Poll: Biden, Sanders top early look at possible Democratic hopefuls in 2020 caucuses" (DeMoines Register). The question was: "Do you think the right person to defeat Donald Trump will be more of a political newcomer, as he was, or more of a seasoned political hand?" It's so normal to say a "seasoned hand" would be better and to be wary of a "newcomer," but not even half of the respondents had the obvious reaction to the generic question. And imagine if the question had been written in a way that was more closely framed to the difference between Biden and Beto, something like, Do you think a better choice to defeat Donald Trump would be a 48-year-old who served 3 terms in the House of Representatives or a 78-year old with more than 40 years of service in the Senate and as Vice President? Or: Would you support a presidential candidate who is offering to serve until he is 82 years old? What kind of percentage do you think that last question would get?
December 16, 2018
I don't think this is good news for Biden.
From "Iowa Poll: Biden, Sanders top early look at possible Democratic hopefuls in 2020 caucuses" (DeMoines Register). The question was: "Do you think the right person to defeat Donald Trump will be more of a political newcomer, as he was, or more of a seasoned political hand?" It's so normal to say a "seasoned hand" would be better and to be wary of a "newcomer," but not even half of the respondents had the obvious reaction to the generic question. And imagine if the question had been written in a way that was more closely framed to the difference between Biden and Beto, something like, Do you think a better choice to defeat Donald Trump would be a 48-year-old who served 3 terms in the House of Representatives or a 78-year old with more than 40 years of service in the Senate and as Vice President? Or: Would you support a presidential candidate who is offering to serve until he is 82 years old? What kind of percentage do you think that last question would get?
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CNN and MSNBC, people probably on the Clinton Foundation payroll, would like voters to consider Hillary again.
Or - she'll simply skip the early primary states and manipulate it all in other ways. That Hillary Clinton prezi-entitlement library won't build itself.
I just don’t see St Beto as president of all Americans. Some of us, admittedly men mostly, want more than teeth and trousers.
If Trump survives until 2020, he will beat all comers from the Donkey Party, and it will drive them bats**t crazy!!
Is Bernie a Democrat?
Again?
Why can't he make up his mind?
The Demmies would be morally justified in telling him to foad.
He wants to be an independent? Fine. I wish there were more of them.
Let him run as an independent.
John Henry
How big a pie piece like their Democratic candidate to be rapey?
Just trying to help Joe out...
Why not Mueller?
He's already the unquestioned super-deity ruler of our nation now. Make it official and crown him king.
Run Joe, run. The end of the #MeToo if nothing else.
Beto is not Hispanic. I can certainly see the childhood nickname thing but beyond that he’s just a garden variety Texas Democrat, Of modern vintage.
"Do you think the right person to defeat Donald Trump will be more of a political newcomer, as he was, or more of a seasoned political hand?"
I don't think this is good news for Biden.
Anything that references "hands" is not good for Biden.
Howard Schultz will win the nomination.
As an Hispanic (by about4-5 of the many definitions) I resent him pretending to be Hispanic.
John Henry
I honestly don't get the Beto thing. There's nothing there.
And imagine if the question had been written in a way that was more closely framed to the difference between Biden and Beto
which would you prefer? a creepy old guy that molests little girls; or a drunk that crashed his car, and got off because his dad was a judge and is now married to a BILLIONAIRESS?
At this point, I can't imagine any Democrat looking good enough to vote for, because their positions are so toxic.
Free speech? Let's repress it!
Economic growth? Let's have more green programs and mandates to weigh it down like it did under Obama!
Global warming? Let's throw more billions at it.
Immigration? What immigration law! Open borders to all.
It doesn't matter who they nominate.
I want Joe 'motor-mouth' Biden and Robert 'the Frito' Beto O'Rourke!! What a dynamic pair!
A senior citizen gaff-o-matic who swims naked in front of others and paws children and a fake Mexican millionaire socialist! yea....
Biden's stint as VP disqualifies him. Not constitutionally but as a practical matter
Other than Bush and Nixon no vp has run and won on their own in almost 200 years.
Nixon sat out 8 years and won but look what happened to him.
Of vps tha did get in, past 100 years or so all have been pretty horrible as presidents.
Demmies are stupid for encouraging any former vp to run. Especially Biden.
John Henry
@Bill Peschel - As sick as it makes me feel, that platform got them the Congress.
Coolidge is the exception that proves the rule
John Henry
A putsch not a putz.
Iowa Millennial: "Is that a seasoned hand in your pocket Joe, or are you just happy to see me?"
Althouse is correct- the poll should be discouraging to all seasoned hands looking to run. I would normally have expected this poll to be 70-80%+ in favor of the seasoned hands. It may well be the case that the race will come down to people like Harris and O'Rourkecito.
Setting the table for Hillary's breakfast.
"... that platform got them the Congress."
Counting votes they liked whether legal or not got them congress, but we are all too old, weak, fat, and stupid to care, much less consider stopping them.
TX, FL, OH, etc. are all Prog in 2020.
If Ebola doesn't kill us all first.
emujin said...I honestly don't get the Beto thing. There's nothing there
Maybe Democrat like deja Vu all Obama again.
What about being the smartest woman in the world? Doesn't that count for something? It used to.
Too old to rock and roll, not too young to die.
johnhenry100 said...
Coolidge is the exception that proves the rule
Coolidge (like Truman, and TR) moved into the Presidential office first due to deaths; HW was pretty much The Only VP to be elected WHILE VP
Biden missed his chance when he didn't run in 2016. Had he done so, he might well be President today despite all his flaws. He let Hillary scare him out of the race. Maybe she had something on him.
It wouldn't surprise me if in 2020 if the Dims chose Willy Brown's bimbo and the Texan beta as their candidates. Just imagine the bumper stickers: Bimbo and Beta 2020.
It's so exciting waiting to see who the democrats will offer up.
All those different lefty options means LLR Chuck will have to be quite flexible in how he rolls out his inevitable (pre-planned) migration to "true conservative is forced to support the dem nominee, darn it all to heck!" status.
We should set up a pool of some sort.
I cannot imagine Crooked Hillary NOT running. If she does, then the Democratic primary would become a true blood sport. I can hardly wait.
Blogger Temujin said...
"I honestly don't get the Beto thing. There's nothing there."
He's the next Obama. Results and experience don't matter if you have the right vibe.
Hillary didn't have the right vibe and lost.
Prediction: Trump will label him "Irish Bob".
Creepy Joe Biden.
Will not win the democrat primary.
Ever.
Maybe Hillary and Joe can run as the Odd Couple ticket.
Gilbar, right about Coolidge.
My point was that the presidencies of all the former vps were pretty unsuccessful. Some,truman, lbj, nixon, spectacularly so.
Coolidge was the exception to that.
Other than bush, the last sitting vp to be elected was in about 1836.
Nixon was the only former vp to get elected in even longer.
The skills of the senate, as senator or vp, are not what's needed in the wh.
John Henry
John Henry
How about president trump say,
"Bobbo Rourke is no more hispanic tha Elizabeth warren is indian."
John Henry
johnhenry, so i should have read more better :)
I thought you were misreading the previous poster's comment about VPs (not seeing that that was You)
I was surprised to realize that so few Vp's ever got elected as Pres; i bought the conventional wisdom that it was the true doorway. But you're right, other that Coolidge and TR, the only ones that ever got elected (by my count) were LBJ and Truman. Most VP's that became President did so by their Pres dying in office, and then they served out his term.
Since you (seem) to know (WAY) more about this than me, can you think of anyone that was VP, then Pres (any way), that was Then REELECTED? Coolidge Could have, so could TR; but DID any?
Its almost 2020 and we're talking about Slow Joe Biden with the wandering hands being President.
Pathetic. He's too old. Way, too old.
I like to think President Trump worked behind the scenes to get an experienced and relatively sane demmie out and AOC in.
At some point he'll tweet that she owes her seat to him and here are the canceled checks.
I have no evidence. I just like to think so.
I'd like to see him gey some repos to vote for Pelosi.
And then he can turn his attention to getting Handsy nominated.
Strictly in the interests of fucking with him
I think the great showman Donald J. Trump has upset the system and scattered the play pieces to an extent that is going to make it very difficult for an "experienced hand" of either party to get any traction in 2020, never mind 2024.
looks like LBJ got elected while sitting in Pres, but then chose not to run
looks like it's
TR (sitting Pres, then elected; chose not to run)
Truman (sitting Pres, then elected; chose not to run)
Coolidge (sitting Pres, then elected; chose not to run)
Nixon (WAS vp, then elected; REELECTED)
so, Nixon seems as close as it gets?
Gilbar
Going back to 1900 nixon is the only former vp to have been reelected to a second full term.
And we know what happened to him. Right?
Second full term in addition to the remnant. Like lbj.
I think before 1900 too but there might be an exception.
Your view of the vp as a gateways to the wh is widely held, even by politicians that should know better. But it is wrong.
John Henry
There's a number of reasons why vps make crappy candidates and Presidents.
I'll go into some of them when I get home tonight.
John Henry
"Seasoned Hand" sounds like a specific cut of meat with a specific preparation method. As in "today's special is Seasoned Hand with a side of Grilled Digits".
Hillary's machine killed any viable alternative. She's just waiting this out until they come begging her.
AllenS: I know what you mean about Hillary running again. But I'd be waffling between enjoying the blood sport and feeling downright SORRY for someone who needs this so bad.
"Seasoned Hand" sounds like the older brother of Learned Hand.
tcrosse: Good one. Whatever happened to Slow Hand, Learned Hand's developmentally disabled brother?
Whatever happened to Slow Hand, Learned Hand's developmentally disabled brother?
Or his kid sister Penelope, who married Steve Jobs, to become Penny Hand-Jobs.
LOL! The last thing I heard about Helping Hand, the family foster child, he was on tour with Mike Rowe doing the "Dirty Jobs" thing.
This does seem like bad news for Biden, because the phrasing of the question seems designed to push people to the 'seasoned hand' over the 'newcomer'. Though maybe a fresh face would have done worse in comparison to a hoary politician.
I think one of the reasons sarah Palin had to be trashed was that she recognized that the sole Constitutional job of vp is to be President of the senate.
She also said that she would actually BE president of the Senate and exercise the presidential powers.
I think she would have done it, too. It was why I supported her and was willing to accept the odiois McCain if that was what was needed.
Like the Queen of England the Senate presidency has become largely cetemonial.
Like the queen, though, the president has some real powers should they choose to exercise them.
Caro, in master of the senate, explains how LBJ took the largely ceremonial post of majority and made it into the second most powerful position in the us.
Maybe most powerful.
He tried as vp to exercise the presidential powers but the party elders were not having it. Since lbj had his eyes on the presidency, he had to back down like a big pussy.
Sarah Palin would probably not felt those constraints
John Henry
Or "Cool Hand" the baf seed of the family.
He had some problems communicating his message
John Henry
Where is the pie chart for:
- Touches women inappropriately.
- Doesn't touch women inappropriately.
- Not sure.
I think one of the reasons sarah Palin had to be trashed was that she recognized that the sole Constitutional job of vp is to be President of the senate.
The reason Sarah had to be publicly and repeatedly trashed was the "vote for the woman" crowd needed to get out the word it didn't apply when the Dems nominated two men.
Hickenlooper will be the Democrat nominee.
IMHO.
I can't believe that anyone wants Joe Biden anywhere near choosing Supreme Court nominees. He practically invented the sort of character assassinations which culminated in the Kavanaugh inquisition. Joe Biden has well-earned an ignominious end to his political career.
Because that was 30 years in the past, so is his rampant plagiarism and just 10 years he wa in the pay of all the subprime players
tcrosse said...
Whatever happened to Slow Hand, Learned Hand's developmentally disabled brother?
Or his kid sister Penelope, who married Steve Jobs, to become Penny Hand-Jobs.
12/16/18, 2:08 PM
I myself have always wondered if Oral Roberts has any siblings...
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