May 1, 2017

"The country Mr Macron wants is no longer France; it's a space, a wasteland, a trading room where there are only consumers and producers."

Said Marine Le Pen, quoted in a Daily Express article titled "Macron PLUMMETS in the polls as Marine Le Pen enjoys boost a WEEK AWAY from election vote/EMMANUEL Macron’s lead over Marine Le Pen has taken a heavy hit as France prepares to vote in the final round of the election on Sunday."

The actual poll numbers reported under that sensationalistic headline are: Macron, 61%, Le Pen, 33%.

ADDED: 61% to 33% still seems so huge, but how does it compare to the notoriously wrong polls that preceded the U.S. presidential election and the Brexit vote? The polls on Brexit showed 55%-45% — a 10 point lead for the side that ultimately lost. In the American election, you have to go state by state, and this image is helpful:



Basically, you could say that in the states that tipped the Electoral College to Trump, Hillary looked as though she was up by about 0.6 to 5.4. So, polls may have a bad reputation these days, but they're not so bad that a 28 point gap looks piddling. And yet, the French election just entered the final run-off with 2 candidates, so maybe the numbers are especially volatile. But even if they are, Le Pen only gained 6 points in the last week and there's only one more week to go.

31 comments:

mockturtle said...

Polls, schmolls.

Gahrie said...

Do not be surprised if Le Pen wins.

In case you haven't figured it out, the polls are doing a very shitty job of dealing with the deplorables.

sodal ye said...

The odds at the bookies are lengthening. Doesn't look good for Le Pen.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president

tim in vermont said...

She has a point, the policies of the elite are designed to maximize the wealth of their already wealthy patrons. None of them give a shit about the deplorables.

Jack Wayne said...

European polls are usually very close. They got Brexit wrong by a couple of percent. When it's 30, Le Pen is gonna lose. Which is a good thing. Macron is another Hollande and his poll numbers will be in the toilet a few months after the election. Enough of these "let's pull together to defeat the Nazi" elections and the "mainstream" candidate will lose. And France will exit the Euro.

sparrow said...

61% is a landslide, he'd have to shed another 10 points to make it interesting.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

Hard to see a win for Le Pen here.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/france-election/polls/

Pollsters have been asking about Macron vs. Le Pen, head to head, for months, and there has been little change. The small shift in Le Pen's favour in the last few weeks doesn't seem to make much difference. This would imply that when voters were asked back in February, they actually thought about who would be their second choice if their first choice did not advance. Many have consistently said Macron is their choice in a run-off with Le Pen.

So: Trumpism not as big in France as in U.S.? Bigger than it was under Le Pen's old man? To win a run-off, you need a majority, which neither Hillary nor Trump achieved.

traditionalguy said...

If Marine loses, then the next Muslim country with nuclear weapons will be France.

exiledonmainstreet said...

I don't think Le Pen will win. France is determined to commit cultural suicide, and that's very sad, but that's their choice.

Bob Boyd said...

I blame sexism and the patriarchy.

Etienne said...
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mockturtle said...

Jack Wayne proposes: European polls are usually very close. They got Brexit wrong by a couple of percent. When it's 30, Le Pen is gonna lose. Which is a good thing. Macron is another Hollande and his poll numbers will be in the toilet a few months after the election. Enough of these "let's pull together to defeat the Nazi" elections and the "mainstream" candidate will lose. And France will exit the Euro.

It will take another election cycle, not just in France but in The Netherlands and Germany. The frogs are only beginning to feel the water start to boil.

Etienne said...

Here's some more translated quotes:

"My party will fight against Islamist fundamentalism with total firmness. The danger to our Jewish compatriots is the rise of Islamist fundamentalism. I think our party is their only shield, the only ones to have the lucidity, the energy, the will, to eradicate this Islamist fundamentalism."

"I think that this is not the case of Mr. Macron, who is supported by the Union of Islamic Works of France which I call La Dissolution. He is supported by Ali Ramadan, the brother of Tariq Ramadan." [1]

La dissolution = Depravity of morals, debauchery.

The Ramadan brothers = Muslim Brotherhood.

She's using a big knife.

tcrosse said...

Mayday marches in Paris have broken into riots and battles with police supposedly to protest Hate and Racism.

khesanh0802 said...

Well those are better odds than Nate Silver gave Trump so who knows. I would love to see LaPen win just to watch the panic of the EU folks in Brussels. As with Brexit, if I were French I would run to the polls and vote early and often for LePen

hawkeyedjb said...

Macron will win, and by a large margin. One thing that French voters want more than "change" is "no change." And they know that Macron's slogan "neither left nor right" means "left."

As noted by others, perhaps another election cycle, and a more baggage-free candidate than Marine Le Pen, will bring "change." But I doubt it; what the French voter seems to want is a better economy, and higher incomes, and absolute protection of social benefits - with no change.

Michael K said...

AS they used to say in Hollywood, before the banks took over, "nobody knows anything."

Krumhorn said...

The frogs are only beginning to feel the water start to boil.

Good 'un! I saw what you did there.

Very cute.

- Krumhorn

buwaya puti said...

I predict 60/40 Macron.

Etienne said...
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Ficta said...

"those are better odds than Nate Silver gave Trump". Huh? That's not correct. The French Poll numbers are the percentage of people who say they're going to vote for a given candidate.
It's a 28% gap vs Hillary's immediate pre-election lead in the polls of <5.4%.

The 70/30 I presume you're thinking of from Silver was an actual percent chance of winning. Turning poll numbers into "odds" is complex and you can argue endlessly about the details, but a 28% gap is huuuuge and gives Le Pen much worse odds than 70/30.

hawkeyedjb said...

As an aside, I know a young French citizenne who voted for the communist, Melenchon. She said it was because of his "idealism."

So there you have it: 100 million dead people in the 20th century equals Idealism in the 21st century. I propose a campaign slogan for the communists: "100 million - not enough!"

Hagar said...

France is not the U.S. nor is it "Europe."
It is France.

Bay Area Guy said...

Teresa May - Britain

Angela Merkel -- Germany

Let's smash the glass ceiling in France! Elect Le Pen!

Roger Sweeny said...

"...It's a space, a wasteland, a trading room where there are only consumers and producers."

Egads. She sounds like Pope Francis.

Etienne said...
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mockturtle said...

The only way forward, was to redistribute wealth. That way you didn't just die in a ditch, or end up in a prison for poor people.

That is, until the wealth sources dry up.

Etienne said...

mockturtle said......That is, until the wealth sources dry up.

The only way capitalism can succeed, is if you have a shit-load of peasants and/or slaves.

We got that in spades. All those poor peasants trying to get a ride on airlines...

Joe said...

For all those thinking a Le Pen victory will be good for France; I don't see it. She's nutty, even by American political standards. Moreover considering France's recent past presidents, I don't see how Macron will be any worse and, in many ways, much better.

tim in vermont said...

Fast forward to the 21st century, and socialism can't work against the power of capital in the hands of 1% who own Washington DC, and Paris. It's always the Kulaks.

Etienne said...

Joe said...She's nutty

She's a woman. Of course she's nuts. Only men are suave and debonaire.