April 27, 2017

"Does Le Pen have a chance of winning French presidency?"

"Since his impressive first-round victory on Sunday, Mr Macron is still at least 20 points ahead, which sounds an unassailable lead.... So what could go wrong for him?"
All she needs is to advance a little more in the polls, and this is how she could do it.

"If she gets 42% of the vote, which isn't impossible, and Macron gets 58%, normally she loses the election," physicist and Sciences Po political expert Serge Galam told RMC radio. "But if 90% of people who said they would vote for Le Pen do it, and at the same time only 65% of people who declared they would vote for Macron actually do it, then it's Marine Le Pen who wins the election with a score of 50.07%."

Under Serge Galam's mathematical formula, he gives three examples of how Marine Le Pen can win, where she is candidate "A turnout x" and Emmanuel Macron is "B turnout y" with a Turnout (T). He calls this model "differentiated abstention."

30 comments:

traditionalguy said...

Le Jour Gloire est arrive.

Does she get to sing La Marseillaise win she wins?

Drago said...

Even under that most optimistic of scenarios for Le Pen getting the "W" still seems like a bridge too far.

For now.

It will take a few more global warming/man-caused disasters/workplace violence/lack of economic opportunities related "incidents of unknown origin" by perpetrators with no discernable motives before enough Frogs are moved to do something about it.

And maybe not even then.

campy said...

There's certainly incentive for Le Pen voters to lie to the pollsters.

Michael K said...

BREXIT II

Another riot or two should do it.

AllenS said...

Ah, excuse my French -- FUCK YES!

David said...

Huh?

tcrosse said...

Meanwhile in the UK the Tories are expected to sweep the snap election, so as to allow Brexit to proceed unhindered.


dreams said...

We've learned that you can't believe the polls.

Drago said...

dreams: "We've learned that you can't believe the polls."

True, but France is still chock-full of the French.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

I've had the same thought: A lot of people are saying they'll not vote Le Pen who will then go and do it anyway. It's not as though we haven't seen this exact scenario play out a couple times recently. It's a pity to treat a vote as not only a secret but a shameful one. But Le Pen has had "far-right" basically glued to her name since she was born.

"Far-right" in Europe means (1) against the EU, and (2) against unfettered immigration. Nothing else. To me, across the Pond, that's ridiculous. The EU is a project, nothing more. There is no reason to fetishize it. And if the immigration Europe is now seeing is going to result in more "incidents" like Rotherham and Cologne and Stockholm and Nice and Paris and Brussels and the like, I'd prefer less of it, thanks.

eric said...

My same friend who recently lost his sense of taste, was in France a lot. He said Marine Le Pen is considered a racist like her father. That a lot of people won't vote for her because of her father. Or at least, they will not publicly support her.

If she does win, which I've got no idea about, I expect to be told that the polls weren't wrong. That their were plenty of indications in the polls that she would win.

Rae said...

Donald Trump will never be President.

David Baker said...

It seems the French will be voting up or down on the world's most violent form of unsolicited euthanasia.

Advantage: Le Pen.

Yancey Ward said...

I do think she will lose, and that she will come closer to winning than almost all the pundits expect. My prediction is 51-49.

However, if you get another attack like that in November 2015 or last July in Nice, she might win in a deluge.

hawkeyedjb said...

""Far-right" in Europe means (1) against the EU, and (2) against unfettered immigration. Nothing else."

Pretty much true. There isn't a great deal of difference among the economic programs of the various candidates - all are statist, dirigiste in the traditional manner, and protective of social benefits. (If they weren't, they would be looking at 0.02% support) Le Pen's big thing is immigration/Islam, and her support tends to come from the smaller cities or rural areas, and older citizens. The modern Cosmopolitans can't be much bothered with distasteful things that might somehow indicate they are "racist," which is the greatest sin in modern society.

Darrell said...

Marine. Marine. Marine. Save our France.
Trump. Trump. Trump. Deport. Deport. Deport.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

hawkeyedjb,

So this means that the banlieus (banlieux?) are in a literal blind spot? We just aren't to look there?

I am wondering about les Juifs. I can believe that they feared Le Pen's father, who was openly anti-Semitic. But she isn't. And if I were a Jew in 21st-c. France, it's definitely not Le Pen I'd be worried about. I'd be worried about the people hacking and shooting and gang-raping and mowing down French citizens. I believe the term of art is "youths." Of totally unspecified skin color and religion and origin.

Tyrone Workman said...

Because, as we've seen, the polls are so accurate and the pollsters are so objective and honest.

hawkeyedjb said...

Michelle, the situation has become intolerable for many Jews in France, and many are leaving for America or Israel. It's extraordinarily sad to see virtually every Jewish institution in France with armed guards in front of them, but that's reality. I don't think Jews fear Le Pen as they did her father, but they are generally mistrustful of her. As for les banlieues, they are lost - a foreign presence and culture in the midst of an otherwise cultured nation. Why the French permit it is beyond my understanding. Perhaps it's because the Muslim presence has long surpassed critical mass, and can no longer be confronted.

Rene' Saunce said...

Le Pen has her father's baggage and that is too bad. A strong leader is needed in that cheese eating surrender monkey country.

Michael K said...

Perhaps it's because the Muslim presence has long surpassed critical mass, and can no longer be confronted.

I think it began as a colonial sentiment that France was "musselman" so they could rule Syria and Algeria and not be foreigners.

It was a disastrous mistake.

The British are making a similar one with Pakistanis. That one, however, was a policy created by Tony Blair for political gain.

More Labour voters. Similar to what the Democrats want to do with Mexicans.

Limited blogger said...

"So you're telling me there's a chance?"

Ken B said...

What a pointless exercise. Any idiot can solve two equations for x and y. If she has 1% support and he has 99, but all her supporters vote and only 98.99 per cent of his vote ...

exiledonmainstreet said...

I believe the term of art is "youths." Of totally unspecified skin color and religion and origin.

4/27/17, 5:48 PM

Yeah. Somehow, the "youths" in question never seem to named Pierre or Jean-Luc or Jacques.

Gospace said...

Rae said...
Donald Trump will never be President.


In the opinion of several Democrat judges now, it's apparent we have no president, but a government of black robed wise people who will rule over us and make executive decisions. Next up will be their ruling the legislature and laws are not relevant but only their pronouncements.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

Betting markets are giving Le Pen a 12% to 16% chance of winning, so it could happen. By comparison that's about half the 28% that Nate Silver gave Trump.

I would think that from the French chauvinist point of view, the fact that Britain is leaving the EU is reason for France to stay. Also, Macron is not running as a party Socialist, so that's a bit of a wild card. But if Le Pen can convince voters Macron is married to a child rapist as has been intimated in certain places on the internet ...

Big Mike said...

I refer you to the late coach Jim Valvano when he heard someone say that his team -- NC State -- had no chance against Houston's "Phi Slamma Jama" team in the 1983 NCAA, given that Houston was on a 26 game winning streak and NC State had finished 5th in the ACC regular season. He listed a bunch of very good teams that had lost in earlier rounds of the tournament and pointed that none of them had a chance because none of them were in the game. The NC State Wolfpack was in the game; they had a chance. Final score NC State 54, Houston 52.

Le Pen has a chance.

MPH said...

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Balfegor said...

Re: MPH:

How much money has Le Pen borrowed from Putin?

I think the establishment has literally had her blackballed from all the French banks. Presumably so they could now point to her borrowing money from non-French banks and portray her as disloyal.