April 29, 2017

"Claiming total certainty about the science traduces the spirit of science and creates openings for doubt whenever a climate claim proves wrong."

"Demanding abrupt and expensive changes in public policy raises fair questions about ideological intentions. Censoriously asserting one’s moral superiority and treating skeptics as imbeciles and deplorables wins few converts. None of this is to deny climate change or the possible severity of its consequences. But ordinary citizens also have a right to be skeptical of an overweening scientism.... Perhaps if there had been less certitude and more second-guessing in Clinton’s campaign, she’d be president. Perhaps if there were less certitude about our climate future, more Americans would be interested in having a reasoned conversation about it."

From Bret Stephens's first NYT column, "Climate of Complete Certainty."

The commenters are trashing him for comparing the deficiencies of the Clinton campaign's use of data analytics with the science of climatology and for not seeing why action is sometimes needed even when you don't have absolute certainty about what's going to happen in the future.

But Stephens is trying to get people to understand how to talk with each other. I'm giving this my new "separatism" tag — invented in the previous post after something the film director John Waters said: "You know, I'm not a separatist, I'm friends with some people who voted for Trump, not many."

ADDED: Is "scientism" an annoying word? I noticed MadAsHell in the comments complaining about it — along with "traduces," "censoriously," "overweening," and "certitude." It's funny, where one's tipping point is, when you get that thesaurus-y feeling. I definitely get it at "traduces," but swallow "censoriously," "overweening," and "certitude" easily.

"Scientism," though, is a weird word. Why do we need it in addition to "science"? What's the work of the "-ism"? It makes "science" into an insult, like you're being too science-y, to the point where it's not even science at all, but a religion with the trappings of science. I looked up the word in the OED, and that got me into this George Bernard Shaw opus, "Back to Methuselah (A Metabiological Pentateuch)":
Let the Churches ask themselves why there is no revolt against the dogmas of mathematics though there is one against the dogmas of religion. It is not that the mathematical dogmas are more comprehensible. The law of inverse squares is as incomprehensible to the common man as the Athanasian creed. It is not that science is free from legends, witchcraft, miracles, biographic boostings of quacks as heroes and saints, and of barren scoundrels as explorers and discoverers. On the contrary, the iconography and hagiology of Scientism are as copious as they are mostly squalid. But no student of science has yet been taught that specific gravity consists in the belief that Archimedes jumped out of his bath and ran naked through the streets of Syracuse shouting Eureka, Eureka, or that the law of inverse squares must be discarded if anyone can prove that Newton was never in an orchard in his life. When some unusually conscientious or enterprising bacteriologist reads the pamphlets of Jenner, and discovers that they might have been written by an ignorant but curious and observant nurserymaid, and could not possibly have been written by any person with a scientifically trained mind, he does not feel that the whole edifice of science has collapsed and crumbled, and that there is no such thing as smallpox. It may come to that yet; for hygiene, as it forces its way into our schools, is being taught as falsely as religion is taught there; but in mathematics and physics the faith is still kept pure, and you may take the law and leave the legends without suspicion of heresy. Accordingly, the tower of the mathematician stands unshaken whilst the temple of the priest rocks to its foundation.

230 comments:

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Krumhorn said...

For avoidance of doubt, the shootings in Huntsville are a clear cut case of eco-terrorism. And I say that without any evidence at all other than the By Any Means Necessary ethos of the Pelosi-Schumer wing of the Democratic Party and the antifa mindset.

The lefties are nasty little shits.

- Krumhorn

Mike Sylwester said...

Bret Stephens' article is about Scientific Progressives.

Lewis Wetzel said...

Blogger Michael K said...

If we dig 6 feet beneath the Mars surface, I suspect we will find life somewhat like Archaea.

I think that the Exo Mars Rover is expected to drill into the martian soil to look for life.
http://www.planetary.org/explore/space-topics/space-missions/missions-to-mars.html#exomars-rover
Not sure it will go down six feet. At one time ESA (I believe) had plans to send a probe to the edge of one of the Martian icecaps. The idea was that life might exist in areas where water and CO2 changed phases.
I used to think that finding O2 in the atmosphere of a 'goldilocks' exoplanet would almost certainly mean life had been found. O2 is so volatile at earth-like temps that some kind of life would have to be actively cycling O2 for significant amounts to remain in the atmosphere.
But I've heard since then that there are geologic/chemical processes that can cycle O2 and so mimic the presence of life.
My intuition tells me that plate tectonics is necessary but insufficient for life to exist on earth-like planets, but like I said, it's just intuition (got to keep recycling surface material).

iowan2 said...

Here is what the masses or forced to accept as science.

Than Geller, Mann effect, tells me that what the media conveys to the puplic is almost always wrong in detail, often confusing cause and effect, an example for instance is, wet streets cause rain.

And

Papers submitted to Peer Review papers are rejected at the rate of 50% to 95%, and of the ones that get peered reviewed, later,somewhere north of 70% end up to be demonstrably wrong.

These two statistics are the basis to force economic suicide on a global scale.

If CAGCC was a thing, 90% of the electricity produced on the planet would be nuclear. Its not, nor is it a goal, because, shutup.

mockturtle said...

Krumhorn asserts: The lefties are nasty little shits.

Now that is settled science! ;-)

Big Mike said...

@Krumhorn, I'm wondering how the Huntsville police determined that it was a 5.7. That's not exactly a common caliber, and especially not in the United States. Ought to be pretty easy to find the perpetrator.

Owen said...

Big Mike: "...I'm wondering how the Huntsville police determined that it was a 5.7...". I think they found brass?

SukieTawdry said...

@Tommy Duncan: And the consequences of GW are always dire. Why are there no positive benefits from GW? I've read that the world is "greening" with more CO2. Wasn't a greener world one of the left's goals?

One of the more troublesome aspects of climate science is the lack of experimentation. Why is that? Is it perhaps because they're afraid the results might not support their hypotheses?

I do recall one experiment conducted some time around the turn of the century by the University of Minnesota on one of its experimental farms. They cultivated crops in a controlled environment containing elevated levels of CO2. They predicted stunted growth and a poor yield. Instead they got more robust growth, an increased yield and a shorter growing period.

When funding's at stake, it probably doesn't pay to get results that contradict the orthodoxy.



Big Mike said...

@Owen, the shooter used a very rare handgun and didn't collect his brass? You are sh*tt**g me!

Lewis Wetzel said...

These two statistics are the basis to force economic suicide on a global scale.

That may be the results if the desires of the warmistas become reality, but I think that the real goal has nothing to do with anything as abstract as reducing sea level rise a century from now.
Fossil fuel use correlates closely with economic growth. What "they" want to do is shift economic growth from North and West to the South and East. They will do this by making fossil fuel more expensive in the North and West than in the South and East. Basically, they want to build an economy above the market economy, and that higher economy will be run by elites, not the rabble. If burning fossil fuels creates wealth, they will decide who can burn how much fossil fuel.
They want an aristocracy, or rather, they already believe that they are an aristocracy, they want the rest of us to acknowledge them as our rulers.
If you keep US GDP growth at 1%, and the Indian GDP is allowed to grow at 3%, in a century the average Indian and the average American will live about the same lifestyle.

Big Mike said...

(Or AR-57 rifle.)

Gahrie said...

I do recall one experiment conducted some time around the turn of the century by the University of Minnesota on one of its experimental farms. They cultivated crops in a controlled environment containing elevated levels of CO2. They predicted stunted growth and a poor yield. Instead they got more robust growth, an increased yield and a shorter growing period.

Many, probably most if not all, commercial greenhouses today use elevated levels of CO2 in the Greenhouse atmosphere for just this reason.

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

I LOVE the word "traduce", and the word "scientism"! "Scientism" perfectly captures the phenomenon of morons using SCIENCE!in their political or quasi-religious zeal to silence the deniers. What could be more settled than the science that claims to explain LITERALLY EVERYTHING UNDER THE SUN?

Now get me my flying car and spandex jacket! EXCELSIOR!!!

Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...

What could be more settled than the science that claims to explain LITERALLY EVERYTHING UNDER THE SUN?

Exxon-Mobil's brand of capitalism for the billionaires. Yep. That's definitely more settled. Who else is going to pay off your party's congress critters?

Gahrie said...

How dare Exxon-Mobil produce something in great demand and sell it for a profit!

walter said...

Works for those Scandinavian "Democratic-Socialist" countries Berno yacks about..

Kirk Parker said...

Jupiter,

If the last 1000 years of dog breeding has given us the chihuahua, the only possible conclusion is "An enemy has done this!"

Lewis Wetzel said...

R&B thinks that the words "Exxon-Mobil" have magical power.
XOM traded at about $83 today.
The chance that R&B knew that is zero.
The chance that R&B knows that XOM is the ticker symbol for ExxonMobile? Zero.
Nope, not "tiny" or "miniscule." Zero.
Maybe you could just post a link to Worker World's Daily, R&B, instead of posting comments on topics about which you clearly know nothing?
Thanks.
Sincerely,
Thinking People Everywhere

iowan2 said...

Lewis Wetzel said

"They will do this by making fossil fuel more expensive in the North and West than in the South and East. Basically, they want to build an economy above the market economy, and that higher economy will be run by elites, not the rabble."

They have a good template to follow. Russia and Venezuela. Energy rich nations with non existent economies.

Allowing experts to run things ensures failure. ARM has even quoted a paper that states the more a group knows about a subject, they eventually now nothing but that subject and are functional idiots

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

iowan2 said...
ARM has even quoted a paper that states the more a group knows about a subject, they eventually now nothing but that subject and are functional idiots


The level of reading comprehension on this blog used to be much higher. Sad!

JAORE said...

"If the last 1000 years of dog breeding has given us the chihuahua, the only possible conclusion is "An enemy has done this!"

I'm a dog person. Love almost all of them. But I used to make an exception for the chihuahuas. I called them hyperactive rats in a dog costume.

As general rule I prefer large, outdoor dogs.

As I type I see our two mutts. One a chihuahua-whippet (Chawhippit, Chawhippit good) mix. The other a chihuahua-Pug (Chug) mix. Minnie weighed one (count 'em) pound and was too sick to eat on her own. Neil had been abandoned (at least twice) and tossed out on a highway. We agreed to foster them back to health and until they became more secure. Damn things worm their way into your heart. At shelters they call folk like us Foster-Failures. Suckers work too.

Rusty said...


"Exxon-Mobil's brand of capitalism for the billionaires."
You mean people can buy and sell the stock in a compant based on the performance of that company in the market place?
Where is the outrage!
The left is reduced to farce.
God damn I miss Chris Hitchens.

TWW said...

Did Bret Stephens leave the WSJ because James Taranto was appointed Opinion Page Editor?

0_0 said...

A lot of hard-headedness and denial here.

For one; we cause increased greenhouse gases. The planet is becoming warmer. If you are on a coast and have anything to do with, say, sewer and stormwater, you are already dealing with this.

However, trying to end the use of fossil fuels because of this will not work. EVERY extractable bit of fossil fuel will eventually be extracted, I don't care if it is in Yosemite National Park.

Whatever you believe about climate change, using the finite fossil fuel supply as efficiently as possible will make it last longer. Is anyone arguing we shouldn't try to conserve our limited energy resources?

Sammy Finkelman said...

Bret Stephens is now at the New York Times?

Sammy Finkelman said...

For one; we cause increased greenhouse gases.

Is that bad? If we cause it, isn't it the sum total of everything that has happened in the last 150 years that causes it, and isn't the year to year increment very small, and the change that is proposed in that increment even smaller? I mean it's something like postponing the level CO2 will reach in 210 to 2106.

The models don't work. Even if they did work, the changes would amountt o nothing.
Wouldn't it make more sense to take more direct action, like spewing sulfer dioxide over the Arctic, fertilizing the Pacific Ocean with iron, and covering the ocean with plastic to prevent hurricanes, if any action was needed? Do you even have the right greenhouse gas? Maybe it's dihydrogen monoxide. Isn't it true that the temperatre hasn't risen so much as the standard deciation has?

Krumhorn said...

Yes, since 1850, the end of the Little Ice Age, it is generally getting warmer.

Yes, we are increasing greenhouse gasses through the introduction of CO2. The concentration of CO2 has increased by 45% since the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800s. Currently, as a global average, there are 40 molecules of CO2 per 100,000 molecules of air. It will take almost 10 years to add another molecule. There are other much higher concentrations of greenhouse gasses such as methane and water vapor and clouds. It is not a controversial statement to say that CO2 has a relatively weak effect on the radiative forcing (meaning either that amount of heat absorbed from the sun or the amount of infrared emitted into space by the earth) because there is so little of it to absorb heat compared to methane or water vapor.

The important part of the debate is how sensitive the climate is to increased CO2. The warmists say the climate has a high sensitivity and will automatically warm. The satellite date says otherwise suggesting that other factors are at work that the warmists will not explore.

Yes, we shouldn't be wasteful of finite resources.

The argument is whether anybody wants autocratic libruls to tell us how to live our lives. If the lefties want to return to living simple lives in the wilderness, I say go for it. But what is really the case, is that the libruls intend for the rest of us to "live smaller lives" while the strident lefties fly off in their private jets to Davos to pat each other on the back for their success in managing the rest of us.

In a nutshell, this IS the problem.

- Krumhorn

tim in vermont said...

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl

ARM's graph is not the only one, it is heavily adjusted and overseen by political appointees at NASA. See above for another take, also peer reviewed.

Peter said...

How can one mention "scientism" without bringing in "Scientology?"

In any case, scientism refers to accepting (or perhaps cherry-picking) the conclusions of (at least some) scientists, based not on an understanding of their arguments or of the evidence supporting these arguments but solely on authority.

Scientism reduces science to "science says." Science says this, and science says that, and you should accept it because scientists are very smart people and they know more than you, so who are you to question their conclusions?

And it may also be regarded as a substitute faith for those who have no religious faith; thus, "God is on our side" morphs into "Science is on our side."

One needs a word like "scientism" because a faith in science is not science (or even scientific). Just as (dare I say it?) Scientology should not be confused with science so, too, a "[possibly selective] belief in the findings of science" should not be conflated with science itself.

Bruce Hayden said...

Interesting paper just out: On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding (Abridged).

The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the “proper mathematical methods” would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the real world. Also critically important, this analysis failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed. The temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the structural analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.

Thus, the analysis results invalidate each of the Three Lines of Evidence in its CO2 Endangerment Finding. Once EPA’s THS assumption is invalidated, it is obvious why the climate models EPA claims can be relied upon for policy analysis purposes, are also invalid. And, these results clearly demonstrate—14 separate and distinct times in fact--that once just the Natural Factor impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no “record setting” warming to be concerned about. In fact, there is no Natural Factor Adjusted Warming at all. Moreover, over the time period analyzed, these natural factors have involved historically quite normal solar, volcanic and ENSO activity. At this point, there is no statistically valid proof that past increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have caused the officially reported rising, even claimed record setting temperatures.....

The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the “proper mathematical methods” would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Stated simply, their claim is that GAST is primarily a function of four explanatory variables: Atmospheric CO2 Levels (CO2), Solar Activity (SA), Volcanic Activity (VA), anda coupled ocean- atmosphere phenomenoncalled the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO.)

Under this assumption of the four explanatory variables, only the atmospheric CO2 levels are deemed anthropogenic, that is, impacted by human activity such as the burning of any fossil fuel. The three other explanatory variables are considered “natural” factor variables. By natural is meant that each of the variables’ values are not impacted by human activity. And, it is also appropriate to call each of these three natural factor variables “chaotic” here defined to mean that each variable has proven impossible to reliably forecast, say over the next ten years, due to the climate system’s chaotic behavior. Thus, any analysis with the objective of climate/temperature change prediction must deal with the chaotic, that is unpredictable, behavior of these three natural factor climate model input variables. However, this difficulty regarding climate model forecasting does not rule out the mathematically proper validation of EPA’s claim regarding CO2.


Stated simply, by removing the effects of SA, VA, and ENSO from a number of temperature time series, the remaining effects of anthropogenic CO2 are statistically insignificant.

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