October 10, 2016

And that's why I don't live-blog debates anymore.

It took me 3 and a half hours to write about last night's 90-minute debate. That was with a transcript, so I didn't have to transcribe my own quotes. And I was trying to write as fast as I could.

245 comments:

1 – 200 of 245   Newer›   Newest»
Mick said...

"Because you'd be in jail."

That about sums it up. And if the Crooked Old Lady wins (She won't, it's a massive Landslide for Trump), Trump can sue to remove her because she would be in violation of

18 US Code S. 2071:

(a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.
(b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.
(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 795; Pub. L. 101–510, div. A, title V, § 552(a), Nov. 5, 1990, 104 Stat. 1566; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(1)(I), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2147.)

PS. Snopes is full of shit.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

So little time, so many usurpers.

Mick said...

Also Volokh, a Russian who really knows nothing, is also full of Shit, along with the supposed "Professor Tillman".

Ken B said...

And that with your mind made up, to save time.

Mick said...

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...
So little time, so many usurpers.

She was also not eligible to be SOS by the Emoluments Clause, but the law means nothing when the executor of the laws is an illegal entity.

robother said...

Heh. Had to laugh at the tables turned on a law school professor, writing fast as she can for three hours straight. Karma's a bitch, Ann.

Big Mike said...

But we thank you for your hard work, Professor. It's appreciated.

Hagar said...

The longest Althouse post ever?
The Professor must really have had a full heart.

Sydney said...

Too bad you can't get that time back. Along with the 90 minutes spent watching the thing.

Ann Althouse said...

I have news for you, Sydney. You can't get any time back.

I could have worked on a novel. I could call it "In Search of Lost Time."

Or, to use Hillary's phrase, "In Search of Lost Times."

Might as well write. What else is there to do?

I want to grab you by your... heart.

And you let me do it.

Because I am a... law professor.

Static Ping said...

Better to give an intelligent take than a "hot take."

It would be easier if you were a journalist. You have already decided what the narrative is before the debate even starts. The story is basically written beforehand with some "Mad Libs" blanks to fill in.

Joan said...

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

I didn't watch the debate and spent some time last night bouncing around looking at the post-mortems, but none of them came close to giving me a comprehensive take on what happened like your recap and analysis. It was excellent, and I appreciate you taking the time to do it.

Big Mike said...

It would be easier if you were a journalist. You have already been told what the narrative is before the debate even starts. The story is basically written beforehand with some "Mad Libs" blanks to fill in.

@Static Ping, fixed it for you.

buwaya puti said...

I am working on a novel. Going slowly.
Working titles, for a trilogy, of course, as is traditional for fantasies-
"Oni with an Iron Club"
"Anting-Anting"
"Banahaw"

rhhardin said...

I don't do debates at all because it's the same crap as the news biz puts out. Aimed at soap opera women.

buwaya puti said...

I don't have time for it either, but any writing is at least writing practice, and any material is, well, material.

Bob Boyd said...

Yes, thank you sincerely. 3 1/2 hours of writing is a lot of work.

Chuck said...

Mick:

You wanna bet, on a Trump "landslide"?

EDH said...

Hell, I feel like I spent three hours just "selecting images" with store fronts and street signs.

Now it's "dining rooms"!

Drago said...

Mick: "Because you'd be in jail."

Someday, somewhere, "lifelong republican" Chuck will inadvertently offer up an actual substantive criticism of Hillary's obvious lawbreaking.

That is, when he is isn't simply calling for the republicans to simply give up for now and hope for the best in the future.

Mick said...

Chuck said...
"Mick:

You wanna bet, on a Trump "landslide"?"

What are you 5?
Trump Landslide-- the polls are a lie. I see with my eyes, not what the criminal state propaganda media tells me.
The crooked Old Lady can't fill a high school gym, while Trump gets 10-15K in arenas. No enthusiasm for the Crooked Old Lady, Plus most of America hates that shrill shrew.
"Because you'd be in jail".--- Moment of the debate

Lucien said...

I bet that, without having to look extra hard, you could find some on the left who thought it would be a good idea for Obama to criminally investigate George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld or other members of the Administration that preceded him.

Now those same people are clutching their pearls because Trump said HRC would be in jail if he'd been the one enforcing the laws, instead of Loretta Lynch, with her private meetings with the spouse of the target of an investigation.

HoodlumDoodlum said...

I thought of an upside: when Hillary wins big and her win is due to a huge margin of women voting for her I can officially blame the downfall of the nation on women as a group. What I mean is I won't even have to pretend that there's something noble or honorable about women's "free stuff" demands nor will I have to feel bad about doing everything I can to make sure I fund as little of the government as possible (which, of course, means finding ways to not have my money forcibly taken and redistributed by the government to women).

"Whine, whine, uuuuh, I need money for free birth control, I need money for free child care, uuuh, I deserve your money." Sorry, lady, you & your sisters gave us Hillary, take your complaints somewhere else and get your $ from her.

AprilApple said...

Chuck - I'm with you. Hillary is still below 50%, but Trump is now below 40%.

Trump will not win in a landslide. Trump cultists remain delusional.

If they would wake up and realize.. perhaps they could help Trump drop out?

oh and look! from wikileaks - Hillary wanted Trump and they panicked a little. *whew* then the GOP came thru and delivered Trump to her.

From new Wikileaks dump: Team Hillary was terrified GOP would nominate anyone other than Trump. GOP came through in the end.

HoodlumDoodlum said...

Oh, and thank you for the write up, Professor A.

Mick said...

Drago said...
"Mick: "Because you'd be in jail."

Someday, somewhere, "lifelong republican" Chuck will inadvertently offer up an actual substantive criticism of Hillary's obvious lawbreaking".


He is not a "lifelong Republican", that is the meme established by the pro Hillary trolls. That is their stock in trade-- relativism-- making some thought, like "Trump doesn't want to win". "Trump is working with Hillary", "Trump will drop out", "Trump is not presidential", "Trump will cause war" supposedly seem more plausible because a "lifelong Republican" is saying it.
How is that majority in both houses working to stop the Usurper's agenda Chuckie? That should tell you all you need to know about the differences in the "parties". Anyone in either one is a fool. Ryan is a Treasonous little bitch.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

I see a lot of people on the left hyperventilating over the Because you'd be in jail comment, as if the thought of jailing opposing politicians was so out of bounds as to signal the end of democracy.

Weren't there a bunch of people upset when Ford pardoned Nixon?
Didn't Clinton ( the former president criminal, not the current candidate criminal ) cut a deal upon leaving office to avoid prosecution on perjury charges?

Chuck said...

Mick you didn't answer the question.

Wanna bet, on a "Trump landslide"?

Mick said...

AprilApple said...
"Chuck - I'm with you. Hillary is still below 50%, but Trump is now below 40%.

Trump will not win in a landslide. Trump cultists remain delusional.

If they would wake up and realize.. perhaps they could help Trump drop out?

oh and look! from wikileaks - Hillary wanted Trump and they panicked a little. *whew* then the GOP came thru and delivered Trump to her".


The polls are a lie. It's at least 65%-- 35% Trump. The Crooked Old Lady can't fill a high school gym.

Trump will win FL., TX., OH., NY, PA. DONE and OVER. Trump will get 15% of the black vote at least-- unheard of

Mick said...

Chuck said...
Mick you didn't answer the question.

Wanna bet, on a "Trump landslide"?

Already have lots of bets, FAKE Republican.

AprilApple said...

Mick - I'd love some of that koolaid. I'd love your reality to be true. Clinton corruption ruins everything it touches. Something Trump should repeat, by the way.

AprilApple said...

Isn't Trump the biggest FAKE republican of all?

rhhardin said...

There's not need for online bets. They're only there to head off bar fights.

Chuck said...

Okay, Mick. You don't have to bet. It's a free country.

Chickenshit.

Earnest Prole said...

The truly impressive thing is that you would do all that work for social media layabouts

buwaya said...

There is a point to this writing.
You will likely be cited by future scholarship on this rather historic episode.
Granted, by scholars, and for whatever thats worth.
But it is immortality of a sort.
The internet is forever.

The Cracker Emcee said...

"I bet that, without having to look extra hard, you could find some on the left who thought it would be a good idea for Obama to criminally investigate George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld or other members of the Administration that preceded him"

The entire membership of Democratic Underground the day after Obama was elected. I told them they were delusional. The Presidency is a very exclusive club.

Wilbur said...

Whether she wins or not Obama will issue her a pardon before leaving office. Because he knows he'll need to.

Achilles said...

10/10/16, 12:07 PM
Blogger Chuck said...
"Okay, Mick. You don't have to bet. It's a free country.

Chickenshit."

You can't even admit you are a paid democrat operative.

Chickenshit indeed.

Fabi said...

I'm still trying to figure out which poll measures turnout. It's fun to see AprilAnnie and Chuck lapping up D+9/+12 polls and thinking that Trump is losing. Here's a fun reminder about enthusiasm: Republican primary votes up 60%; Democrat primary votes -10%. Clinton can't fill a high school gym; Trump has people waiting for hours in the rain for his events.

Who's drinking the Kool-Aid? Not me.

hombre said...

April Apple: "Trump will not win in a landslide. Trump cultists remain delusional."

Chuck is just a troll, but I/we expect better from you. Most of us who will vote for Trump will do so only because he is the anti-Hillary candidate and professes to be the anti-establishment candidate. My wife preferred, and contributed to, three of his Republican opponents.

We are not cultists. We are Independents who oppose a continuation of Obama's ill-advised policies and D.C. corruption by an incompetent, grifting, criminal whose political hypocrisy has been on display for 25 years.

It's not enough to be merely anti-Trump, a potentially bad President, when the alternative is a certainly bad President.

Unknown said...

Ms. AA:

How about, "Because I am a... LAW PROFESSOR!"

Achilles said...

Blogger AprilApple said...
"Chuck - I'm with you. Hillary is still below 50%, but Trump is now below 40%."

When a democrat is credibly accused of rape the democrats defend him. When Hillary is caught in dozens of lies and is clearly getting wealthy selling influence democrats rally around her.

When a republican puts a dog on his roof 20 years ago stupid republicans wring their hands. When Trump goes over the top bragging about grabbing pussy stupid republicans cower in their shit filled diapers.

You are why we lose these elections. Rush addressed this in his opening monologue. The only republicans to get elected lately are bushes. The political class will do whatever it takes to maintain power. There is not a human being alive from the real world that could make it through an election untainted.

We lose elections because fucking idiots like April apple are too stupid to realize what we are up against. I am not as confident as Mick. I think we have too many people like April doing the political classes work for them.

Mick said...

"I'm still trying to figure out which poll measures turnout. It's fun to see AprilAnnie and Chuck lapping up D+9/+12 polls and thinking that Trump is losing. Here's a fun reminder about enthusiasm: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTES UP 60%, DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTES -10%; Clinton can't fill a high school gym; Trump has people waiting for hours in the rain for his events.

Who's drinking the Kool-Aid? Not me.


THIS^^^^^^^^^^
Ask the wrong question to the wrong person and you will get the wrong answer.

Mick said...

Anyone who belongs to either party is a fool.
We the people HATE the political establishment and the media, so any time they attack Trump he gets stronger, and that is 24/7 because they know the Crooked Old Lady is losing BIG.

Chuck said...

Mick said...
Anyone who belongs to either party is a fool.


Then quit fucking around with the Republican Party. Get out. And, see how that works out for you. You don't like Republicans; and we don't like you.

buwaya said...

"You don't like Republicans; and we don't like you."

Nobody likes anybody.
This is how it happens.
Check out the first two chapters of Beevor's history of the Spanish Civil War.
A very interesting "social" take on the thing, a good fit, a fill-in-the blanks with Hugh Thomas academic version.

Fabi said...

Way to build that big tent of voters, Chuckles!

Yancey Ward said...

"Isn't Trump the biggest FAKE republican of all?"

Maybe, but here is the thing- the Republicans already in Washington seem to be fake Republicans, too. That is the why and how of Trump's candidacy. I wish his campaign had been run by a more pleasing type of candidate, but I still can't tell you who that might have been.

Yancey Ward said...

Ms. Althouse,

A very nice summary of the debate, and I certainly appreciated comparing it to my own thoughts.

coupe said...

Mick said...18 US Code S. 2071

Congress can't regulate who can be President. The Constitution says who can be President, and nothing changes short of an amendment.

The billions and billions of words written by Congress, are mostly white noise. It's grass to the trees.

"I wish they would save the trees, and cut the grass." - Krusty the Clown

Yancey Ward said...

As usual for the these town hall events, I found the questions uninteresting and shallow at best. To get an invitation, you were supposed to have submitted a question. Could we ever get a list of all the questions the audience submitted in their application? Were the 7 people picked the best questions out of the entire lot? If so, then the Republic is truly doomed. I would also like to see the questions of the people who weren't invited to the town hall.

rcocean said...

Can't Meade type and take Dictation?

Mick said...

Mick said...18 US Code S. 2071

"Congress can't regulate who can be President. The Constitution says who can be President, and nothing changes short of an amendment.

The billions and billions of words written by Congress, are mostly white noise. It's grass to the trees.

"I wish they would save the trees, and cut the grass." - Krusty the Clown"

Maybe not, but Trump could (if he lost, but he will win by Landslide) file for Quo Warranto in DC District Court.

Achilles said...

I believe there is a 50/50 shot of trump pulling this off.

But there is a chance Hillary gets elected. They are registering thousands of illegal voters in Pennsylvania and the republicans are trying to defeat trump too.

I am recommending everyone prepare. Watch Fight Club. One way or another the scum of the earth will be heard.

FullMoon said...

I appreciate AA taking the time.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Ann Althouse said...

I want to grab you by your... heart.

And you let me do it.

Because I am a... law professor.

10/10/16, 11:25 AM

Criminal behavior. textual assault.

Try and grab my heart and you'll get a knee somewhere and maybe a lawsuit. I'm no jurisgroupie.

Then you try and fire me from your blog. THEN the lawsuit for sure.

What will we settle for, out of court? Something precious to you, like money is to Trump.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Blogger Achilles said...
I believe there is a 50/50 shot of trump pulling this off.

But there is a chance Hillary gets elected. They are registering thousands of illegal voters in Pennsylvania and the republicans are trying to defeat trump too.


Hillary ain't shit. The thing to fear is the machine. What can be done about the Dem machine?

Bad Lieutenant said...

Maybe, if it persists an issue, Trump can make the point that this persecution is the same as is and will be directed at your own kin. Lots of PA moms on the fence might be wincing at that tape, but also thinking of their own sons, on the football team, in the Army, maybe to be ruined by someone with a grudge and a tape recorder. It's one thing to be a deplorable, another to be a sneak, or the victim of a sneak.

Adamsunderground said...

What can be done about the Dem machine?

Ubi bene, ibi patria

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

Y'all can still point to the LA Times poll, it still has a +3 for DJT. Ras is at +7 for HRC, but LAT is resistant.

buwaya said...

"What can be done about the Dem machine?"

The Dem machine is the "keep the proles quiet" branch of the Multi-Trillion$ multi-national financial engine of power. Nothing much matters except holding on to power in order to keep the huge pile of money floating in the ether, disconnected with any worldly production or consumption. A bubble to end all bubbles.

http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging

In a way, these things tend to solve themselves. This is not going to be painless.

Fabi said...

Completely different methodologies for Rasmussen and LAT. Reading is fundamental.

Chuck said...

Is it really a mystery to any of you where this hostility comes from, in relation to Trump?

We've got the whole Limbaugh Wing, bashing the evil "GOP establishment," whatever that is. The same GOP establishment that fended off the Merrick Garland SCOTUS nomination; that foiled any climate change treaty; that prevented any further expansion/repair of Obamacare; that enacted the Sequester; prevented any new federal gun restrictions; prevented any new energy taxes; blocked any Obama amnesty legislation; opened the Benghazi investigation leading to the Hillary Servergate investigation; etc., etc.

I think the extremists on the left think that Congressional Republicans are evil failures because they didn't rubber-stamp the Obama agenda. And extremists on the right think that Congressional Republicans are all evil failures because they didn't enact the full slate of a Tea Party agenda including a repeal of Obamacare.

Why can't people understand that nothing like either of those extremes ever occurs in divided government?

But the hostility really comes from the person of someone like Trump, and all of his personal insults and his ignorance of issues. Trump sows hatred like Johnny Appleseed planted apple trees. And you reap what you sow.

You guys wonder why the harsh language from someone like me, against Trump? I comes straight from all of the "GOPe" trashtalk that has polluted our side of the aisle for years.

Achilles said...

Chuck is probably a republican. There are such creatures who are part of the aristocracy. They are souless and have a menial function in the aristocracy but they are cool with that.

Chucks job is to trick us into thinking there is a choice between the parties. Note that bushes are the only republicans to get elected since Reagan and nobody has done more to dismantle the Reagan legacy than republicans under bushes.

We are throwing your useless traitorous asses out. If you succeed in defeating trump you will be the first in line.

buwaya said...

"We've got the whole Limbaugh Wing, bashing the evil "GOP establishment," whatever that is. "

The evil establishment that, for instance, happily joined the Democrats back in 2012, under Ryan, to permit restatement of private pensions such that underwater pensions looked like they were fully funded. The private sector side of the public pensions scams. Just one example. Have you seen any coverage of that? I found it myself, confirmed with consultation with specialist actuarial publications.
These people are villains also.

"that foiled any climate change treaty;"

That mattered zip. The DOE and EPA are going just as fast as they feel like. Lucky for all of you the US has near-unlimited natural gas. Just you wait though.

"that enacted the Sequester;"

That was scared off the sequester, hence entirely failing to rein in the executive agencies.

"Why can't people understand that nothing like either of those extremes ever occurs in divided government?"

You don't have a divided government. All you have is relevant and irrelevant portions of the the government. Ryan and co. are in the irrelevant portion.

"I comes straight from all of the "GOPe" trashtalk that has polluted our side of the aisle for years."

I think you take this too personally, unless you actually serve in the Congressional leadership. The people are unhappy, that part doesn't come from "trashtalk". Real things are at the root of rhetoric. The tone is a consequence, not a cause.

AprilApple said...

Achilles - it's all true except that Trump is a 70 year old former playboy with tons of baggage. I can forgive that. The problem is he is not a good public speaker. He stinks. People don't like that. He cannot debate.

Bad Lieutenant said...

People don't like that.


YOU don't like that.

I don't know your background and don't want to be seen as poking at you, but what you like, maybe not everybody likes. We do not need to be ruled by the 538 best talkers in America!

Achilles said...

Blogger AprilApple said...
"Achilles - it's all true except that Trump is a 70 year old former playboy with tons of baggage. I can forgive that. The problem is he is not a good public speaker. He stinks. People don't like that. He cannot debate."

So the fuck what? Figure it out. We have a republic or we don't.

Newt is an awesome debater but he "had baggage." He was also responsible for the only balanced budgets we have had since Coolidge. They let Clinton take credit for the budgets Newts shutdowns brought about and never forgave Newt for knocking over the rice bowl. The GOPe took him out just like they are taking out Trump.

Mitt was the best human being that probably ever ran for president. The aristocracy took him and turned him into a dog torturing purveyor of cancer.

They are going to destroy any person that threatens their power. We don't have time for you to clutch your fucking pearls. Stop being a tool.

traditionalguy said...

Nobody likes Hillary. Therefore many of the poll responders for her will not vote.

In Bar Harbor , Maine today the signs and street paintings were all for Trump.

Trump will lead to restore the sabotage damage Obama has diligently rigged into
our Government at every level. That cleaning of the stables is needed now before the place disappear. the only question is if we are willing to save our country.

CWJ said...

Achilles,

Don't forget high school bully and women binder.

Big Mike said...

@Chuck, Obamacare is repealing itself, or rather reality is repealing it. And the Republican majority could have sent popular measures to the President's desk and forced Obama and his fellow Brahmans to repeal them in an election year -- as Democrats did to Bush back in the day.

As I have repeatedly pointed out to anyone who would pay attention, the Tea Party was a warning. The fall of Eric Cantor was a warning shot if ever one was. Who was paying attention? Besides Donald Trump, I mean? If Marco Rubio had been on the right side of border control, he'd be the nominee and he'd be twenty points ahead of Clinton and Jeanette would be measuring the White House windows for new curtains.

Chuck, can you get it through that silly little gelatinous blob you refer to as your brain that PEOPLE ARE HURTING. They are hurting because they don't have a job, even though there are firms they could work for but the owners can't hire them because they need to stay below fifty employees. Or they have jobs but can't work more than 29 hours a week due to that Obamacare you mistakenly think "can't" be repealed. Trump is the only candidate who seems to give a damn about them.

Could Mick be right? I can see Clinton getting to 350 electoral votes, and I can see Trump getting above 300 depending on how things fall out in the next four weeks. I think Clinton's support is thin, and could evaporate in a minute, and I think the anti-Clinton vote is robust. Buckle up, my friend, we're headed into turbulent times.

William said...

The odds favor Hillary. Trump has an outside chance if there's--God forbid--some kind of event before the election. I think by Election Day everyone will retreat to their respective corners and Hillary will win by a decent but not huge margin. Employed white men, whatever their contributions to the taxable part of the economy, are just not present in significant enough numbers to swing an election by themselves. They should just go to work and stop bitching about their taxes and the government. Everyone has a function in this life. Their's is to work and pay taxes. .......The election cycle has certainly had its share of drama and excitement. It's kind of tawdry and tacky and destined for an unhappy ending, but it holds your attention. The Obama/Romney matchup was edifying but rather more boring.

Michael said...

Big Mike

90 million people are out of the workforce and we talk about Donald Trump saying pussy ten years ago. We are so completely and colossally and purposefully fucked

buwaya said...

Modern politics in one chart -
This sort of thing explains nearly everything.
Its also a good way to compare societies and modes of governance - what are they doing well or badly, compared to you. I love benchmarking.

Anyway, same chart, multiple countries, of EMPLOYMENT RATE - All Persons 15-64, from the St. Louis Fed.
This is apples to apples, how many in those age cohorts are employed, from 2000-2015 (in most cases). This very graphically covers the impact of the 2008-09 crisis in these countries. This avoids the dimbulb US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, which really is a lie, though even eminent economists at least pretend to use it.

US - Performance is telling - see vs other developed countries.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTUSM156S
UK -
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTGBQ156N
Canada - You can see why they got rid of Harper. And that performance is a fraction as bad as the US.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTCAM156N
France
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTFRQ156N
Japan
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTJPM156N
Germany - Crisis? What crisis? Wanna know why Merkel was popular?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTDEQ156N

Big Mike said...

@Michael, you noticed.

buwaya said...

"90 million people are out of the workforce"

Well, no, not really. This is a raw total number of adults 15-64 less those employed, and the total employable tends to be less than that, and those who want to be employed somewhat less again, etc. Best is to compare vs well-run countries.

I did run a few vs Germany and the UK, and using their labor force reporting standards the US unemployment rate is somewhere between 10.5-14.5% - Though both the UK and Germany report 5-5.5% unemployment.

Smilin' Jack said...

It took me 3 and a half hours to write about last night's 90-minute debate. That was with a transcript, so I didn't have to transcribe my own quotes. And I was trying to write as fast as I could.

A properly educated woman would have made notes and comments in shorthand during the debate and then typed it all up at 140 wpm.

But now they spend all their time learning about Susan B. Tubman or whoever.

exiledonmainstreet said...

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...
Y'all can still point to the LA Times poll, it still has a +3 for DJT. Ras is at +7 for HRC, but LAT is resistant."

The Rasmussen poll were taken before last night's debate. It won't be until Thursday or so that we will know if the debate had any effect.

Big Mike said...

@buwaya, calculate inflation the way it was calculated during Carter's administration and calculate unemployment the way it was calculated during the Carter administration, and I'll give you 2:1 odds that the present "misery index" is greater than when Reagan was elected to fix the economy.

However Trump is not Reagan.

coupe said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
exiledonmainstreet said...

Then quit fucking around with the Republican Party. Get out. And, see how that works out for you. You don't like Republicans; and we don't like you.

10/10/16, 1:28 PM

I don't like the Republicans either. I've voted GOP since the 1980's. And I'm not even a huge Trump fan. I'm simply sickened by the hypocrisy of the gutless Republican Establishment.

That's right, Chuck, show us the door. Who, pray tell, do you think will make up the numbers that you will lose if you kick out Trump supporters? Do you think you'll be able to woo Hispanics and blacks and single women with the present version of the talk-tough, do-nothing GOP? Good luck with that.

coupe said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
coupe said...

Michael said...90 million people are out of the workforce...

They are criminals, prisoners, mentally insane, drug addicts, or sex workers.

They still pump the economy, even if they are worthless humans.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Again, B M,


However Trump is not Reagan.


So what? Nobody is anybody but themselves. However, Trump is, if not alone, distinctive in his call for deregulation, much as Reagan was. He is also capable of projecting hope, optimism, and love for all Americans.

Give him a chance.

Or...

buwaya said...

Anyway, my point is you are being lied to by the media, especially the "elite" "quality" media, even economic publications. and this isn't about small matters, but large ones.

The unemployment situation is bad indeed, the US economic performance 2000-2016 has been substandard vs that of nearly any other sizable developed country, and its standard of governance is much below par.

One can't help conclude that even the French socialist frog-eating fonctionnaires are more honest, more public spirited, more professional. Even young Mr. Trudeau up north may be less slimy than the people running this place.

Big Mike said...

@coupe, did I just read that not only did you group military with criminals, prisoners, mentally insane, and prostitutes, but you called them "worthless humans"? You really did write that?

You worthless bastard son of a $5 whore. I guess your side of the political aisle didn't get enough of spitting on soldiers back during the Vietnam War.

David said...

I give you a medal for this, and not a sarcastic one. It's good to see that a few law professors will still do the jobs other Americans won't do.

Big Mike said...

@Bad LT, if on Election Day it is snowing at blizzard rates, I am in bed with two broken knees and a 104 degree fever I would still crawl through the snow and climb over broken glass to vote against Hillary Clinton the crook.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Big Mike,

That's all I ask:

He, that day that sheds his vote with me, Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so deplorable.

Chuck said...

Nonsense, Big Mike.

Don't give that crap about Donald Trump being the Republican savior to repeal and replace Obamacare. How, with somewhere between 55 and 45 Democrats in the Senate? Trump isn't even a good, or a reliable, voice on healthcare. John Kasich would have been that guy.

And don't anybody run be down over Republicans needing to broaden the base and create a bigger tent. I don't want a tent big enough to house persons whose credo is, "We need to blow up the Republican Party." Those people -- no others -- are the ones I would tell to take a hike.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Also, don't pay coupe no mind, he's a wet-brain. Besides, I guess he edited, so I don't see it anymore, whatever you saw.

buwaya said...

I don't like citing Zero Hedge, because thats a gang of shorts, but throughout this whole "crisis" they have been very good at calling out the idiocies of our economic "managers".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/fed-who-cried-growth

Of the various Fed predictions, all the plans to increase the Fed funds rate (i.e., to decree interest rates above zero). This ties in with the fake US unemployment rate illustrated above - someone at the Fed really is looking at the actual situation and acting accordingly, while its minions happily assume, and predict for public consumption, an imminent recovery.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Chuck, I heard you talking trash at somebody on some thread. Remember, if you're looking for some action, you can always come to New York.

Big Mike said...

@Chuck, you scored pretty low on the reading comprehension tests, didn't you? Plenty of people predicted that Obamacare could not succeed for precisely the reasons it is failing today. All President Trump would have to do is step aside and let it collapse. The trouble with reality is that it's real, ya know?

buwaya said...

To summarize the US economic condition, seeing as I can't post charts here (I do have all the employment/unemployment data from various sources, such as the OECD, etc. on Excel)

Around 2000, the US was at the top of the heap - highest employment rate among developed economies, and seeing how unemployment rates really aren't internationally comparable, it probably had the best employment situation in the world, whatever the official numbers were.

After the collapse of 2000, the US fell into the pack of the best performing developed economies - Japan, Germany, the UK, Australia, Canada.

The collapse of 2008 hit the US by far the hardest of any major developed economy. This was not a fall so much as a sort of state transition. It was then in the category of the Latin countries in the EU -France, Spain, Italy - just above them. We are talking places with official rates of 10-15-20+% unemployment.

Since then the US has recovered very slowly and has stayed far beneath the upper category of developed countries, about halfway between them and France-Spain-Italy.

Its no surprise that people are unhappy about this. US economic performance has been dreadful, and it is readily apparent in official statistics. The next crash I think, which may be not too far off, this has been a fairly long "expansion", may well be another "state transition" into, well, unknown territory. Down into or through the Latin zone, or Greece or Portugal maybe.

And from there, Argentina is in view.

AprilApple said...

Reagan won in a landslide because he was eloquent and articulate.

Trump is the opposite.

AprilApple said...

Achilles

"They are going to destroy any person that threatens their power. We don't have time for you to clutch your fucking pearls."

A smart articulate person would rise above it. Trump cannot argue himself out of a paper bag.

coupe said...

Bad Lieutenant said......if you're looking for some action, you can always come to New York.

What a douche.

coupe said...

Big Mike said...You worthless bastard son of a $5 whore.

What a douche.

AprilApple said...

Yes - the media are wholly in bed and colluding with the democrat party. Even a wikileaks dump proving it, doesn't move the needle. The hacks control all of it now.

I do not care about the sex tapes. If I'm told not to care about Bill's Rapes - how on earth do I need to waste time caring about some silly bravado falling out of Trump's lips 11 years ago? I'm still voting for him. (hint - this isn't about me)

The problem is OUR side didn't do any oppo research on Trump. We should have found this out and it should have been flushed out a long time ago. We all know the hack press in coordination with the clinton crime family and hollywood are shaming and slamming Trump in the 11th hour. Oh goodie - more to come? Combine this with his already high negatives. (remember that? - Trump has higher negatives than she does - and everyone HATES her!)

Persuadable voters do not like what they see in Trump. Trump is terrible in a debate setting. Deny it all you want, He is losing ground because of it.

I agree with Ann. I want Donald to gracefully bow out. use the sex tapes as an excuse, and get out.

It's not too late.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

It's not clinton crime family, should be Clinton Crime Family.

Also don't forget Simpson-Bowles.

Michael K said...

"The problem is OUR side didn't do any oppo research on Trump."

Where do you think the "pussy" video came from ? JEB and his cousin cooked that up to show us poor suckers how wrong we were not to buy another load of Bush.

Henry said...

This may be the worst Althouse comment thread of all time. Including this comment.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

MK,

You're funny. Even if the Bush dude did want to shoot himself in the foot (which is a stretch), it's cool that you think the talent has anything to do w/ stuff like this tape. Presumably you think that when you see someone on the tube, there's not many layers of folks behind the scenes who are actually responsible for what you're watching.

Old people are funny.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

MK,

How old where you when your household first purchased a TV?

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

How about talkies? How old where you when those started?

Paddy O said...

"We should have found this out and it should have been flushed out a long time ago"

Why research what is glaringly obvious. There's a multitude of reasons why many Republicans are against Trump in the primaries. This is the sort of thing we knew would happen in the election when the media turned from being pro-Trump to moving against him.

You don't need to flush out what is already floating on the surface. Of course, he should have been flushed down and away, but that time is now gone.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Hey PBJ,

Coupé says you're a douche.

Coupé,

Bottles of Massengil on the shelves are high-fiving each other in mutual congratulation that they are not Coupé. All flavors agree.

AReasonableMan said...

buwaya said...
To summarize the US economic condition, seeing as I can't post charts here


You should check out the private sector payroll jobs graph. On job creation you are on weak ground in attacking Obama. And, unlike every previous president in recent times, he hasn't pumped up the number of public sector jobs.

Darrell said...

The Bush family is so smart they got Cousin Billy fired and ruined his career--just to help Hillary and give some cover to the phony Republicans--like Paul Ryan, John McCain, and the others that, forewarned, were ready to pull their endorsements at a second's notice. There is more reason to vote for Trump than ever. He is a real threat to the Globalist, open-border, pro-amnesty c-suckers than anyone ever gave him credit for. Jail Hillary. Jail the FBI lawbreakers that threw the case. Jail the DOJ bastards that subverted Justice. Look at throwing the enabler Barack Obama in jail, as well. Soros? One can hope.

Michael K said...

"How old where you when your household first purchased a TV?"

How old were you when you first got a job ? Or is it too soon to ask?

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

"How old were you when you first got a job ?"

I'm 76, but I've never worked. I've always lived on food stamps and various other free gov dough scams. Being a gov mooch pays well.

CWJ said...

ARM,

Your link contained a number of surprises. But I didn't see "job" defined. World of difference between full time and part time jobs added. Likewise, quality/pay rate of jobs added vs. Jobs lost.

coupe said...

PBandJ_Ombudsman said......I've always lived on food stamps...

What a douche.

CWJ said...

PB and J,

76? More like 7+6. I always suspected that you should be ignored. Now I know that that's the case. I can now safely lump you with Coupe, Guild... et al. Ritmo is the soul of measured analysis compared to you.

CWJ said...

Coupe,

I'll save you the time. What a douche.

buwaya said...

Hi ARM,

No I'm not. The important thing here is rates, Jobs/relevant pop.
And "job creation" fits in the whole thing.

To Compare - Employment RATES in 2016 (Q2) OECD comparable data - Jobs/All persons 15-64

Germany 74.3
Canada 73.03
Australia 72.61
USA 69.42
UK 73.4
France 64.4
Japan 74.28

Employment RATES 2000 (Q1), same basis -
Germany 65.3
Canada 69.23
Australia 68.12
USA 73.69
UK 70.8
France 61.7
Japan 67.98

Employment RATES 2010 (Q1), same basis -
Germany 70.4
Canada 69.9
Australia 71.82
USA 66.05
UK 68.9
France 63.6
Japan 70.08

Compare - the US dropped categories into sub-performing territory. For instance the UK fell, hard, but not as bad, but recovered much better. Germany, Japan just powered through.

Michael K said...

One benefit of being as old as I am is that the coming collapse will probably be after I am no longer at risk.

I do worry about children and grandchildren but some of them voted for the mess makers.

It's much easier to be philosophical.

Chuck said...

Bad Lieutenant said...
Chuck, I heard you talking trash at somebody on some thread. Remember, if you're looking for some action, you can always come to New York.


Commenter Mick was talking trash about the coming Trump landslide. I simply asked him if he wanted to bet. And he immediately chickened out.

Talk about "pussy"!

You want to bet on a Trump landslide?

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

This doesn't seem ideal:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-mitt-romney-polls_us_57fbfb02e4b0e655eab6e1ba

buwaya said...

The other thing to consider is that all these other places were in a genuine economic expansion - some barely felt 2008-09, most were mildly hit, and all benefited from good global growth since. The US has simply not caught up from the bottom, not even close, it has fallen behind.

Or consider deltas - the US has fallen behind in job creation vs Germany, Japan, the UK (% diff from Q1 2010 to present). Its beaten Canada and Australia, but neither fell very much to begin with and are as close to "full employment" as they have ever been.

The US is nowhere near full employment, and yet it is claiming 5% unemployment. No freaking way. Its at least double that by international standards, and probably more.

EMD said...

I'm working on the next great American novella.

#lazy.

Bad Lieutenant said...

First off Chuck, if you'll remember when we discussed Ann's stupid idea, I make my own bets not other people's bets. I certainly wish I agreed with Mick, and commend his optimism. I certainly believe in keeping one's game face on and not pissing and moaning like you. I've never seen anything like it.

Second, Hillary Clinton is the Napoleon of political crime, at the head of the Grande Armeé of political crime machines, and to parry her strokes I want a shield of steel, not a paper hoop from a circus. If she died today she would still get 45% of the vote, and it could be 55% if we're not careful. And that's whether we ran Trump, Zombie Reagan, or Jesus.

Third, even if I foresaw a blowout I would stay hungry, I agree with Michael Moore's logic there.

Fourth, last I offered you betting terms, I never heard back. Speaking of pussy.

Fifth, I think Fabi says he already won a bottle off you. What was the bet? Have you paid up yet?

Chuck, if you just come here to spew, that's okay, I understand everybody needs an outlet. But what I need to know in real life is that not only are you voting Republican, meaning voting Trump as well as down ballot, but that you are encouraging others to do the same, and putting a happy face on it. That might seem unpleasant, but I trust you'll agree that it's logical?

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

"The other thing to consider is that all these other places were in a genuine economic expansion"

Right, your superstar Japan has been a growth maniac. If only we could match it.

Good stuff.

Darrell said...

Chuck said there was no way that Trump would win the nomination outright. He was as wrong as a man could be. Wrong about almost everything else this election. Trust the c-sucker, Chuck. He is in no way supporting Hillary and the Globalists.
Trump FTW.

The bet is the continued existence of the US as we know it. Hillary is snake-eyes.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vg-Ux8YTuME/TkqtQypqmxI/AAAAAAAAADQ/boeP1607Im8/s1600/Japan+vs+US+GDP.png

buwaya said...

Interesting question about Japan.
Their working age population is falling, a lot, not rising, giving them a large built in GDP negative. Still they manage a positive.

However, it seems its a good place to look for work if you are youngish and able-bodied. These stats are for 15-64. A very large part of the Jap population is >64.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

This World Bank data seems fairly clear:

https://ndainfo.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/usvsjapangdp.jpg

AprilApple said...

Where do you think the "pussy" video came from ? JEB and his cousin cooked that up to show us poor suckers how wrong we were not to buy another load of Bush.


M K - Trump's junk is out there, and we are going to hear all about it now - 11th hour. We needed to know this before and during the primary.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

Or, from Thomson Reuters:

http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Real-GDP-Comparison.jpg

buwaya said...

Like I said, this isn't GDP, this is employment. There are many problems with GDP. You really have to adjust for pop growth or it can be misleading about population welfare (and boy does it apply when a third world country is growing fast). Babies="growth". Negative babies=negative growth.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

per cap:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=JP

exiledonmainstreet said...

This is not about sex or Trump's boorishness. This is about the GOP joining forces with the Dems and the media to destroy the anti-globalist candidate. That's it. That's all. They would fight like tigers against anybody who talks of restricting immigration and closing the borders. They are fighting Trump far harder than they have ever fought Obama.

All of this phony outrage about naughty talk is political theater, calculated to sway the rubes. And it very well might work, because the American people showed in 2012 that they can be manipulated quite easily by the puppet masters in the media.

AprilApple said...

Paddy O

Why research what is glaringly obvious. There's a multitude of reasons why many Republicans are against Trump in the primaries. This is the sort of thing we knew would happen in the election when the media turned from being pro-Trump to moving against him.

You don't need to flush out what is already floating on the surface. Of course, he should have been flushed down and away, but that time is now gone.


Indeed. My point is-- if there was a way to have that exact sex tape during the primary, perhaps we would have flushed Trump. Trump needed flushing. If the polls are accurate, this thing is over.

He will still get my vote only because Hillary is worse, but we know this is not how it works with most voters.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

buwaya,

I realize some parts of this country have sucky life prospects. But, I also know that this is very much a country where hard work can pay off.

If you really want to discern info from employment data you must start breaking it apart based on educational levels, and then go further by separating the data based on different fields for those folks with higher ed degrees. This country is a gold mine w/ good employment for folks who get degrees in fields that are in demand. Dummies or unfortunate folks who not able to do this will never (looking at averages) be rich, it's a total lie to tell them otherwise.

wildswan said...

Well, thanks for writing up the debate. It's very interesting to read a written description. It's, perhaps, like a drawing - you have to decide "what to draw", not just where to point the camera and leave interpretation to someone else. I tried to watch but but one second of Hillary was all I could take.

The Republican party member situation reminds me of the Army of the Potomac, dedicated soldiers led into disaster after disaster by generals who were incompetent for various reasons. Amazing how many reasons there were. Or else the general let victory slip away. When Lincoln found a general at last he was bombarded with criticism "Grant drinks" to which Lincoln responded "Get me his brand; my other generals need to have some." And when casualties rose in Grant's 1864 campaign, Lincoln simply refused to dismiss Grant "He fights." Lincoln finds a General is a story with a happy ending. But will America find a President who likes us? who wants to be an American? There's so much money to be picked up and dropped in one's pocket by going along with globalization. Globalization is more than free trade; it's ruling by decree and by regulation, not legislation; it's contemptuous, not representative; it's social engineering, not landing on the moon. It's jargon, obfuscation, lying. It's sex tapes, sex, legalizing drugs, banning salt, studying Big Mac making - not good jobs. It's aristocracy back again and it does not work for the American people any more than it did the first time we got rid of it.

AprilApple said...

Exile -

The GOP is not joining forces with the Dems. The GOP want to dump Trump and replace him with someone who can beat Hillary. I know it's hard to fathom, but it's true. They also have their own seats to win. How that plays out - I don't know? it could back-fire. They are walking a tight rope. and yes - the GOP are easily manipulated by the media. Nothing new there.

Your point about the media being a manipulation machine for democrats is spot on.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

"He will still get my vote only because Hillary is worse, but we know this is not how it works with most voters."

IMHO, the smart move is for cons to ensure that DJT goes down in flames. Then, you have a claim on the R party afterward. This is a total no brainer if it looks like DJT will lose anyway. A less substantial loss just emboldens the know nothing (i.e. DJT) wing of the R party. OTOH, if you're part of the know nothing wing, then this emboldening is a feature, not a bug, as they say.

AprilApple said...

PB&J - If Hillary gets in - it's over. She will flood this nation with so many illegals, it's over. Over over over.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

April,

Why will she be better at this flooding over 4 years than BHO has been over (essentially) 8 years, including a period w/ control of congress?

Chuck said...

Darrell said...
Chuck said there was no way that Trump would win the nomination outright. He was as wrong as a man could be. Wrong about almost everything else this election. Trust the c-sucker, Chuck. He is in no way supporting Hillary and the Globalists.
Trump FTW.


Fuck you, Darrell, you miserable worthless piece of shit! Prove to these readers that I ever wrote any prediction about Trump winning the nomination. Show them, because I am calling you out as the liar that you are. Right now, you need to link to someplace where I made such a prediction.

What I said was that if Trump did get the nomination, I expected that it would be a disaster. But even then, I never made any predictions.

You're a liar, Darrell. Shut the fuck up about me and leave me alone. Quit commenting about me if you are going to say stupid and false shit.


BN said...

"We are throwing your useless traitorous asses out. If you succeed in defeating trump you will be the first in line."

What i like best about the Trump era is all the Republican intra-party healing.

AprilApple said...

PB&J - Well, for starters, she has promised to up Obama on letting illegals in and granting them amnesty.

buwaya said...

"Dummies or unfortunate folks who not able to do this will never (looking at averages) be rich, it's a total lie to tell them otherwise."

This is true anywhere, this is not unique to the US. When we are talking of national employment rates though we are looking at the general state, which applies across the board even if more to A than to B. The US is NOT behind on the credential chase as it happens, even for STEM, even vs Germany. Definitely vs the UK.

Fabi said...

ARM: do you really want to brag about part-time jobs in the service industry as some private sector job growth baseline? You're kidding yourself. It's the worst post-recession recovery ever -- check the GDP.

AprilApple said...

btw - The idea that the GOP are in bed with the dems and they seekritlee want Hillary to win?...

PANT LOAD.

The GOP want to ditch Trump as an act of self-preservation. The GOP are desperate to make sure Hillary LOSES. The GOP dies if Hillary wins. It's over forever.

Trump - his debate performance tells us he wants Hillary to win. Look at him standing there like an old scary guy with a scowl on his puss.,. that's a guy who doesn't give a sh*t.

walter said...

Schmaltzhaus..the thread multiplier..

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

April,

Just thinking strategically, you and other cons may never feel that DJT is certain to lose, but if you did feel this certainty, the smart move is to make sure DJT loses by as much as possible.

That's inarguable, unless you like DJT.

Fabi said...

Real Republican Chuck says that Mick predicting a landslide victory for the Republican candidate for president is "talking trash". Got that? That's a new low for Chuckles. I don't understand the guy at all.

n.b.: I was looking through some posts from the last presidential election a few days ago and "Chuck" was commenting at that time. Same style and grammar; same background and home state -- and rooting for Mitt. The only thing worse than considering him to be a Hillary shill, is him being an actual Republican.

AprilApple said...

BP&J - I have one vote and I am a solid against Hillary. I'm still hoping Trump grows a brain, the ability to stay focused and string a few sentences together, and perhaps even fight hard against Hillary with... intelligence. and...

Who am I kidding?

Fabi said...

You are a funny girl, AprilAnnie! Check out Ryan's behavior today and ask yourself if the GOPe really wants to defeat Hillary -- they don't. Same with Chuck.

AprilApple said...

Fabi - get over yourself. It's boring.

exiledonmainstreet said...

AprilApple said...
PB&J - If Hillary gets in - it's over. She will flood this nation with so many illegals, it's over. Over over over."

And Paul Ryan is sure dead set against open borders, right? As are the Bushes, Marco Rubio, the WSJ....

Fabi said...

That's a very substantive rebuttal, AprilAnnie! I expected nothing less.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

"You are a funny girl, AprilAnnie! Check out Ryan's behavior today and ask yourself if the GOPe really wants to defeat Hillary -- they don't. Same with Chuck."

The GOP is trying to navigate the issue I'm bring up. Even though they'd prefer DJT over HRC, if it's certain that DJT will lose they'd want to make sure he's is wiped out. Their internal polls are telling them DJT can't win.

Chuck said...

Fabi: Look for my Althouse posts on the subjects of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and the Walker protests. You'll be deeply disappointed. I am a Republican; a credentialed Republican National Lawyers Association Poll Challenger. Going way back.

I don't expect that Professor Althouse wants to weigh in on my status. But I think she'd laugh at the notion of my being a Democrat.

PBandJ_Ombudsman said...

OTOH, I could be totally wrong. Lunatic Glenn Beck is now saying that folks should vote for HRC, so it must be the wrong thing to do.

Michael K said...

M K - Trump's junk is out there, and we are going to hear all about it now - 11th hour. We needed to know this before and during the primary.

I don't disagree but he was a private citizen and politicians have done much much worse. Teddy Kennedy and Chris Dodd's "Waitress Sandwich" is only one. Barney Frank let his butt boy run a male whorehouse out of his home. Bill Clinton fucked everything that would hold still for 30 seconds.

All were on the public payroll at the time. His comeback this time was pretty good. I expect to see more but this is also going to be less effective every time as the public knows who he is.

Would I prefer a more conventional politician ? Of course !

But maybe only a guy as crazy as Trump would take on the Deep State and all its minions like Ryan.

This may be a fight to the death, I just hope Trump's bodyguards don't do an Indira Gandhi on him.

People die around the Clintons.

Fabi said...

Aside from the snark, I was saying that you are a Republican, Chuck. I just wish you'd see the paradigm shift and embrace it. De gustibus.

Fabi said...

PB&J: Anyone who believes that Trump can't win this election is detached from reality. There's no analogy for this race and the polls can't measure turnout or any of the dozens of events that could still swing this race.

Bad Lieutenant said...

Chuck, you asked me what may or may not have been a straight question, I gave you a straight and detailed answer. Are you replying or what?

Achilles said...

Blogger AprilApple said...
"btw - The idea that the GOP are in bed with the dems and they seekritlee want Hillary to win?...

PANT LOAD.

The GOP want to ditch Trump as an act of self-preservation. The GOP are desperate to make sure Hillary LOSES. The GOP dies if Hillary wins. It's over forever.

Trump - his debate performance tells us he wants Hillary to win. Look at him standing there like an old scary guy with a scowl on his puss.,. that's a guy who doesn't give a sh*t."

You are not this stupid.

Bush senior has already made it known he is voting for Hillary. The bush's leaked the video. Jeb started this campaign essentially telling the republicans that they were going to pass amnesty and like it. Mitt Romney went on more than one rant about Trump after it was clear he would be the nominee saying things about Trump that were both untrue and far worse than anything he said about ANY democrat. Romney passed signed and implemented Obamacare before obama. Bush 2 pushed and signed the last major entitlement put into law in this country with republican and democrat support. Paul Ryan has done everything he can to pass Obama's agenda and keep him from having to veto anything. 1 veto on a non-issue so far. Newt was responsible for our last balanced budget and the republicans destroyed him.

They do not want what we want. You are going to let them destroy the republic.

Achilles said...

Blogger PBandJ_Ombudsman said...
"Or, from Thomson Reuters:

http://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Real-GDP-Comparison.jpg"

You are not being serious. The government has borrowed over 9 trillion dollars during the Obama administration. The Fed has printed 85 billion dollars a month during his entire administration. That is over 2 trillion dollars a year printed or borrowed and somewhere over 12% of our GDP.

Growth has never exceeded 2%. >12%. <2%.

I know you are not really very bright but even you should be able to discern the problem here.

Darrell said...

Fuck you, too Chuck. You argued with me saying that Trump would never hit the magic number. No one is going to look through the archives to find it. You were a Cruzer and a loser and you still are. People can remember that, too. When your predictions fall to shit, you change the subject. I predicted Trump would take it all from the start. I still have confidence that President Trump will be sworn in on Jan.30, 2017. George Soros and the Globalists are finished. The true number of immigrants, legal and not, taken in since the last amnesty is closer to 100 million than the number publicly recognized--it has to be. A million and a half per year legal and the same number illegal. We've remade the United States without anyone voting for the change. The people are rejecting it now.

Michael K said...

"Romney passed signed and implemented Obamacare before obama. "

Achilles, I agree with most of this but Romney, I think, is honest and not part of the Deep State. The Massachusetts plan was originally an individual mandate that was thought to be a good idea even by Heritage. I spent 25 years caring for illegals and "free loaders" and might have agreed it was a good idea except I have never believed that government could do anything successfully. The bill Romny signed was changed over his veto by the 80% D legislature and further changed by the next governor, Deval Patrick. So I think it a bum rap to blame Romney for Obamacare.

I have been disappointed in his response to Trump but it might be a Mormon thing. Utah seems to be dead set against Trump and maybe it is his life style. The Christian fundamentalists seem more realistic than the Mormons about what needs to be done to stop Hillary. I don't know why.

damikesc said...

When a democrat is credibly accused of rape the democrats defend him. When Hillary is caught in dozens of lies and is clearly getting wealthy selling influence democrats rally around her.

When a republican puts a dog on his roof 20 years ago stupid republicans wring their hands. When Trump goes over the top bragging about grabbing pussy stupid republicans cower in their shit filled diapers.


That's become my issue and why I say, in all seriousness, fuck the Republicans. They seem to expect perfection in a candidates. It's insanity.

Hillary committed serious federal crimes and the Dems act like it's no big deal and a distraction. Trump makes lewd comments and Republicans fall all over themselves to behave like SJW. Do they not live in our current culture? The White House had the "Cocks not Glocks" group over this past week. Trump's comments are beyond the pale?

The Republican Party would rather see a Democrat win then see somebody the anointed don't like do so. I'd suggest the working poor abandon the GOP. Screw the lot of them. If a Bush wins the nomination, somebody who isn't rich or tied in tight politically with DC would be a fucking idiot to vote for the clown.

Then quit fucking around with the Republican Party. Get out. And, see how that works out for you. You don't like Republicans; and we don't like you.

Way to "expand the tent".

That mattered zip. The DOE and EPA are going just as fast as they feel like. Lucky for all of you the US has near-unlimited natural gas. Just you wait though.

Indeed. And people like Chuck ignore that those horrible regulations done by the EPA et al --- could be stopped by Congress in moments if they wanted to do so. But they do not. The Republicans still love failure theater and the hopes that "wedge issues" will convince the "drones" that the GOP is really on their side. For realz.

John Kasich would have been that guy.

Kasich? That clown? The guy who forced Medicaid expansion that OH cannot afford (shocker, costs are way higher than anticipated --- when has that ever happened with a government program?) over the GOP-led legislature? Just throw crumbs at the proles so the elites can continue to run the world into the ground.

Carpet bomb Harvard and Yale and you've improved the world tremendously.

If the GOP really wanted to defeat Hillary, we'd see these "leaders" criticizing Hillary in remotely as vociferous a fashion as they are criticizing Trump. We've not seen that ever. We won't see that ever.

Big Mike said...

Leave it to a foreigner to see things clearly. Nigel Farage, the man who led the charge on Brexit, sees people being fed up not only in England but here the US as well. Bluntly put, the ordinary voters are tired of the pain and if it takes a Trump to make it stop, then it takes a Trump.

I get it too.

And I'll say this. One way or another Hillary's "basket of deplorables" will make it stop. If Trump loses -- and that's the maximum likelihood event right this minute -- then what's coming in 2020 will make folks like Chuck wish he voted for Trump.

Brando said...

We've got a few weeks left, and while there may be some surprises in store the odds of Trump pulling off a win grow more remote by the day. I'm surprised by how much the "tape" scandal caused Republicans to pull their endorsements--I suspect it is more a matter of "they were waiting for an excuse to jump from a sinking ship" rather than "this time he really went too far!" But the more important damage is that it (along with the Machado thing) took Trump well off message, and don't forget--once again, covered up another Clinton scandal (the release of Goldman Sachs transcripts).

Trump in a second debate managed to not preach beyond his choir (i.e., the people who may not know anything about Sid Blumenthal), leaving one final opportunity to do so but by then it may be too late. Early voting has started.

And of course the lack of ground game--we'll find out how much that matters after November 8, but I'm sure it matters somewhere more than zero.

And his odd contradiction of Mike Pence during the debate--of all the questions to undercut your running mate on, he picks Russia. What is it with Trump and Russia? As Trump would say, something's going on there.

He might have had a chance if the final two months were spent on message, hitting Hillary hard and consolidating the right with enough of the middle to pull off an upset. It may already be a bridge too far.

Ah, well. The consolation is Hillary is likely to crash and burn as president. We'll get to watch that.

Brando said...

Also, I noticed something odd while hate-watching the NFL (which I really need to stop doing): a Trump commercial, on a Baltimore broadcast station. Can anyone explain why they might be advertising here? The station might carry into some of southern PA, but I figure the ad rates would be a lot cheaper in Harrisburg and cover a lot more ground.

Besides, PA is out of reach. FL is his must-win state.

AReasonableMan said...

Amongst OECD nations the US sits in the middle of the pack for https://data.oecd.org/emp/labour-force-participation-rate.htm, not exactly falling off the map. But this performance is much better than it looks. European nations do two things to pump up this number that the US does not do. With higher tax rates the government employs many more people as a fraction of the population and they provide much more generous maternity leave to stop the loss of women from the workforce. If you want to advocate for higher taxes I am sure that the labor participation rate in the US could be pumped up to European levels.

AReasonableMan said...

Some of the countries ahead of the US in labor participation rates have remarkable rates of government employment as a fraction of total employment: Denmark 34.9%; Norway 34.6%; Sweden 28.1%; compared to the US 14.6%.

Apples and oranges comparison.

Chuck said...

damikesc:

I am going to write this again: if "expanding the tent" of Republican politics is somehow supposed to mean including folks who specifically want to demolish that party, then I have to wonder just how stupid those wishful-thinkers are.

"Expanding the tent" doesn't mean expanding it so far that it extends to the guys wearing loincloths with knives between their teeth, all dancing around a fire, such that the tent we simply wanted to expand now catches fire and burns to the ground.

Chuck said...

Darrell said...
Fuck you, too Chuck. You argued with me saying that Trump would never hit the magic number. No one is going to look through the archives to find it. You were a Cruzer and a loser and you still are. People can remember that, too. When your predictions fall to shit, you change the subject. I predicted Trump would take it all from the start. I still have confidence that President Trump will be sworn in on Jan.30, 2017. George Soros and the Globalists are finished. The true number of immigrants, legal and not, taken in since the last amnesty is closer to 100 million than the number publicly recognized--it has to be. A million and a half per year legal and the same number illegal. We've remade the United States without anyone voting for the change. The people are rejecting it now.


No, Darrell, you are not going to find any proof to back up your mischaracterization of me, because none exists. You made it up, you fucking idiot. So again I say put up or shut up because I am specifically calling you out as a liar.

I like Ted Cruz -- in the Senate. I had the chance to vote for him in Michigan, and I didn't. I voted for Kasich and that is a vote I get happier with each passing week.

Now, I ask for only on thing from you. And that is on November 8, when Hillary Clinton is declared the winner as soon as enough polls close, please re-create the scene in The Shawshank Redemption when the authorities come with a warrant for the arrest of Warden Norton.

The Cracker Emcee said...

"The GOP want to ditch Trump as an act of self-preservation. The GOP are desperate to make sure Hillary LOSES. The GOP dies if Hillary wins. It's over forever. "

Like it was over in 2008 and 2012? The Republicans have never controlled so much in so many places. The second Hillary wins she becomes a walking punching bag with no one to hide behind. The GOPe is absolutely salivating at the almost certain prospect of further expanding their majorities in 2018.

Chuck said...

Chuck, if you just come here to spew, that's okay, I understand everybody needs an outlet. But what I need to know in real life is that not only are you voting Republican, meaning voting Trump as well as down ballot, but that you are encouraging others to do the same, and putting a happy face on it. That might seem unpleasant, but I trust you'll agree that it's logical?


I am voting a straight Republican ticket*, which will effectively be a vote for Trump in Michigan, where he will lose by about 8 or 9 points, I expect. But I will never, ever have to put my mark next to Trump's name. The straight-party box is at the top of my absentee ballot, which I have, now. I qualify for an absentee ballot as a result of being an election day volunteer, away from my regular polling place.

I am not going to endorse Trump or encourage anyone else to vote for him. I plan to continue to criticize Trump and his supporters. I would like to exact some measure of revenge on the people who enabled Trump to get the nomination. I plan to diminish all of them going into the future, in any way I can.

*Read up on the politics of straight party voting in Michigan this year. It's a really interesting battle. We Republicans tried to get rid of it. Because it helps Democrats in the far down-ballot races. But they sued, and in a truly rotten decision, a federal district judge in Detroit who is a longtime Democrat pol, enjoined enforcement of the new law banning straight ticket voting. So now, I am going to use it, to cast an all-Republican vote without regard to Trump.

AprilApple said...

Bush and Romney are irrelevant.

AprilApple said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AprilApple said...

Brando -

...But the more important damage is that it (along with the Machado thing) took Trump well off message, and don't forget--once again, covered up another Clinton scandal (the release of Goldman Sachs transcripts).

Trump blind faithful don't see it at all. Every time damaging info on Hillary comes out, it's covered up by some lame thing Trump does or says. Yeah - the media make it worse. But we were promised, by his very supporters, that Trump would be so awesome in the face of all this.

Brando said...

"Like it was over in 2008 and 2012? The Republicans have never controlled so much in so many places. The second Hillary wins she becomes a walking punching bag with no one to hide behind. The GOPe is absolutely salivating at the almost certain prospect of further expanding their majorities in 2018."

Right--the GOP has had trouble winning national elections (winning the popular vote only once since 1988, in 2004) but has a lot of strength at the state level. These things are sort of related--a fractured party can have regional variants that may win in Massachusetts and Maryland as well as the South and plains states. It's also partly due to where Republican voters tend to live--more spread out, while Dems are more compacted. The disadvantage in winning "big population" states also means being able to win more districts within those states and control legislatures.

A Hillary win isn't the end of the world, and conservatives and Trumpists ought not get all apocalyptic about it. Yes, they blew their chance to beat her badly this year, and it's an outrage that she may be on track to win decisively when the Clintons should be pounded into history.

But remember, once the Trump dust settles--Hillary is still very unpopular, very scandaled, and she lacks political skill. If she wins, it'll be because she's not Trump, not because any large constituency wants her to be president. As a result, she will be embattled and mistrusted from day one, and almost certain to fail at whatever she tries. The GOP will be positioned to gain against her and hamstring her presidency, and possibly impeach her.

Chuck said...

The GOP will be positioned to gain against her and hamstring her presidency, and possibly impeach her.

I have said so before, Brando, and I completely agree with you. After a massive anti-Clinton midterm election in 2018, giving the GOP massive majorities in both houses of congress. Impeachment in 2019.

Brando said...

"Trump blind faithful don't see it at all. Every time damaging info on Hillary comes out, it's covered up by some lame thing Trump does or says. Yeah - the media make it worse. But we were promised, by his very supporters, that Trump would be so awesome in the face of all this."

I'll say. What happened to "hit back twice as hard"? He looks more like a spazz flailing around. We were told he wouldn't let himself be treated as Crowley treated Romney--well, he did call out the moderators, but it looked a lot more like impotent whining. What were his fans expecting? Him to walk out? Do they think his complaints helped him any?

And in the first debate, saying he wouldn't bring up Bill Clinton's scandals because Chelsea was watching? Ok, THIS is why we shouldn't nominate a guy who has a personal relationship with the opposing party's nominee! Mr. Hit Back Twice as Hard held back. (Not that going after Bill, in October, is a good strategy--Bill isn't on the ballot, and if you're going to try and tie Hillary into that mess you need to lay the groundwork months ago, so voters in their minds associate Hillary with that sordidness. Right now the voters Trump needs are thinking "why am I blaming Hillary because her husband cheated on her???").

Trump fans will convince themselves that Jeb or Marco would have done even worse. They have to tell themselves this, because the reality of this train wreck is too much for them to accept responsibility for. But it's clear as day what is going on.

Brando said...

"I have said so before, Brando, and I completely agree with you. After a massive anti-Clinton midterm election in 2018, giving the GOP massive majorities in both houses of congress. Impeachment in 2019."

Well, I hope so Chuck--but then I also had hoped that this year the GOP would nominate someone who would soundly defeat Hillary, gain maybe a seat in the Senate, and start entertaining proposals to replace Obamacare next year. So we'll see what happens to the party next year when Trump starts the Trump News Network and works to split the conservatives in half.

Chuck said...

So we'll see what happens to the party next year when Trump starts the Trump News Network and works to split the conservatives in half.

The Trump News Network will be cheering GOP Congressmen, as they conduct hearings on Clinton misconduct. Of course, they will also be whining about how they got screwed in 2016 by a biased media and disloyal Republicans. And of course, Trump will continue to say ever-more outlandish things which a network executive (including a good one like Roger Ailes) would never say in public.

Oh, and without Bill O'Reilly, Greta van Sustern, Sean Hannity, Shep Smith and Eric Bolling, Fox News will be vastly improved. Addition by subtraction.

Mac McConnell said...

Chuck
I'm the professor's age, my Republican activism started when I was 14. I worked at Kansas City Convention for Reagan to dump Ford. I've ran for office, been chairman of various party organizations, worked for many Republican presidential, state and local nominees, paid and voluntary. I've always voted Republican with very few exceptions. I've donated thousands of dollars. I've been offered gov jobs which I turned down. I could go on and on, but the Republican leadership are quislings. I don't give a fuck if the party burns down, it's like having a dog that's gun shy, give it to someone that wants a pet. The leadership has become just that the Democrats' pet and they will feed it with their minority party's share of the graft.

damikesc is correct, Kasich is a clown. Oh, did you know his dad was a mailman? WTF!

Mac McConnell said...

Brando
Who was Baltimore playing? Check out one of those fan base maps. For example, if you want to hit western Kansas with a NFL broadcast you do it with the Broncos out of Denver.

Chuck said...

Mac McConnell: I'd stand firmly for your right to say that you don't care if the Republican Party "burns down." It's a free country, you know?

But if you held that view as a Republican candidate, a Republican Party committee member, or a Republican office holder and you expressed those views, I'd publicly demand that you resign.

AprilApple said...

Brando

"it's an outrage that she may be on track to win decisively when the Clintons should be pounded into history. "

An outrage, indeed. This whole episode with Trump has been an exercise in delusion and futility.

Brando said...

"Who was Baltimore playing? Check out one of those fan base maps. For example, if you want to hit western Kansas with a NFL broadcast you do it with the Broncos out of Denver."

They were playing Washington, though I figure that might pick up some northern VA voters. Still, though, I figured Redskin fans would be getting it broadcast through a DC affiliate rather than the Baltimore station.

AprilApple said...

Brando - word on the street is that Trump voters are so angry, they are now vowing to vote for democrat on the down ticket. The DNC media are loving this.

AprilApple said...

Impeachment is a fantasy. Clinton will stuff all the departments with loyalists, donors and cronies. The DOJ will be worse than it is now under Obama. Her corruption will ensconce her like a corrupt South American Socialist Dictator.

AprilApple said...

@ Brando- -
Trump fans will convince themselves that Jeb or Marco would have done even worse. They have to tell themselves this, because the reality of this train wreck is too much for them to accept responsibility for. But it's clear as day what is going on.

The only bright spot in this whole election is that we did soundly reject Jeb Bush. Our side didn't want the family dynasty. I was hoping that would be another way we could hit the Clintons. Enough of this family dynasty garbage. oh well.


I am convinced, and it's provable by Hillary's inability to crack 50% in any poll, that a Rubio, a Kasich, a Cruz, ... or even a few of the others (Walker, Paul, Fiorina) would have put up the fight needed without all the crazy.

Achilles said...

"The GOPe is absolutely salivating at the almost certain prospect of further expanding their majorities in 2018."

And do what exactly? Amnesty? Confirm every person Hillary nominates for the Supreme Court? Pass continuing resolutions on the budget and increase spending MORE than Obama and now Clinton will ask for? If we are lucky we could get Medicare part "F."

The republican voters are not going to support them anymore. Get ready for Fight Club 2.

Mac McConnell said...

Brando
Ravens vs Redskins broadcast would cover almost all of Virginia and parts of PA.

Chuck said...

AprilApple said...
Impeachment is a fantasy. Clinton will stuff all the departments with loyalists, donors and cronies. The DOJ will be worse than it is now under Obama. Her corruption will ensconce her like a corrupt South American Socialist Dictator.


All of what you say -- corrupt executive departments, a worsened/less credible DoJ, and a tinpot dictator's mentality -- will only propel an impeachment by a Republican congress.

If the Trumpkins want an impeachment, they had better vote for Republicans up and down their ballots.

Michael K said...

I'm surprised by how much the "tape" scandal caused Republicans to pull their endorsements--I suspect it is more a matter of "they were waiting for an excuse to jump from a sinking ship" rather than "this time he really went too far!"

Read what Huckabee said today.

"A lot of these bed-wetting, hand-wringing Republicans — they're not afraid Donald Trump is gonna lose. They're scared to death he's gonna win," Huckabee told Megyn Kelly. "And if he wins, he's going to mess up the neat little package of fun they have because they all play to the donor class, and Donald Trump is coming to make big changes in the way that these institutions go."

I don't know if he is going to win but I agree that is what they are worried about.

Brando said...

"Who was Baltimore playing? Check out one of those fan base maps. For example, if you want to hit western Kansas with a NFL broadcast you do it with the Broncos out of Denver."

Washington--so maybe they were going for Northern VA votes, but wouldn't those viewers be watching on a D.C. affiliate? Or are the commercials during the game the same for both affiliates picking it up? I figured they'd be customized, like the ones we have for Baltimore area car dealers.

"Of course, they will also be whining about how they got screwed in 2016 by a biased media and disloyal Republicans. "

How better to not learn one's lesson than to blame backstabbers? The fact is though, except for officeholders (who have to actually win elections with not just the base but swing voters) most conservatives are grudgingly voting Trump, and a grudging vote counts as much as an eager one. But if you can't blame backstabbers, then you'd have to admit you backed not just the wrong horse but a horse that cannot find the track. So blaming backstabbers allows Trumpists to sleep better at night.

"Brando - word on the street is that Trump voters are so angry, they are now vowing to vote for democrat on the down ticket. The DNC media are loving this."

I wonder if that's as empty a threat as the conservatives saying they won't vote for Trump. Not voting is one thing, but to vote for the Dems?

"Impeachment is a fantasy. Clinton will stuff all the departments with loyalists, donors and cronies. The DOJ will be worse than it is now under Obama. Her corruption will ensconce her like a corrupt South American Socialist Dictator."

Congress can still impeach--though the one thing that they'd have to overcome is getting the public behind it. Without public support, it'll go down as well as it did in 1998. Perhaps if Trump were to fade quietly (as if) the conservative media could start focusing on Clinton scandals and work public opinion in favor. But then, Trump may jump back into the spotlight (how could he really give it up after the past two years?) to save Hillary by taking attention away from her--yet again.

If he's not actually working for her, he's doing an excellent job acting like he is. If I were her adviser, I couldn't have picked a better foil to save her bacon.



Chuck said...

Achilles we have already seen what happens with Trump/insurgent challengers in Republican primaries. We saw it in the primary challenges to John McCain, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio.

The challengers got their asses kicked.

AprilApple said...

Chuck

"If the Trumpkins want an impeachment, they had better vote for Republicans up and down their ballots."


They hate and blame the GOPe much more than they hate Hillary and her corrupt power.
We shall see. They wanted "burn it down". They see "burn it down" as inflicting as much pain on everyone as possible. Like a child with no power sitting in a high chair. That bowl of spaghetti will soon fly across the room. That will show everyone.

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