April 29, 2016

It's tough to predict what will happen in Indiana — "the toughest factor is the state’s own essential strangeness."

"What do I think, as a native son? I think Trump will do better here than most pundits predict. But I also think those pundits should spend less time talking about Trump and more time trying to understand our complicated, diverse, historically messy (and yet ultimately endearing) 50 states."

Writes Craig Fehrman at FiveThirtyEight.

ADDED: An old post of mine about Indiana: "In which of the states is it easiest to talk to strangers?" 

44 comments:

dreams said...

Regardless, I predict a Trump victory.

eric said...

I dunno, Pence is going to endorse Cruz today.

Might be enough to give Cruz a victory, even a nice victory of 5 points or more.

traditionalguy said...

Indianapolis is a border town between a Northern westward migration stream that came across from Delaware , Northern Pennsylvania and Northern Ohio after getting its start in Massachusetts Bay's East Anglia Puritan Tradition; and a Southern westward migration stream that came across Western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and southern Ohio after getting its start in Presbyterian Scotland via Northern Ireland.

The Weird part is the way they insist on being superficially nice to everybody.

MadisonMan said...

One time I was in Indiana, I stopped at a Starbucks (it was snowing) and the people there told me how to go the back way next to I-65 to avoid a miles-long, hours-long backup on the interstate. Apparently Indiana doesn't do much highway treatment during snows, and this leads to multi-vehicle pileups.

It was still an hour longer, but we weren't parked on the Interstate (and it's kinda nice to drive past all the people parked on the Interstate).

That wasn't superficial at all, that niceness.

chickelit said...

Indiana voters should probably skew more towards Kasich than we saw in Wisconsin. Also, is there the equivalent of a meddling, pervasive, local #nevertrump talk radio presence in Indiana?

mezzrow said...

The South begins at Martinsville. Bloomington is a progressive college town island, like Athens in Georgia or Lexington in Kentucky.

Everybody have a good day, now.

dreams said...

Louisville, KY is very liberal too, the media like to brag about how gay friendly the city is and the growing gay community.

Limited blogger said...

Not tough for me to predict. Trump wins going away.

Jonna & Rob said...

As a native and now returned Hoosier, I think the author gets a lot right. He did leave out one major migration, though, which was the influx of people from TN and KY during our manufacturing heyday (1930s-60s). Despite the strong Pennsylvania Dutch influence in the northern part of the state, Indiana is likely the most 'southern' state in the Midwest.

Except that Southerners don't care much about basketball and, as Cruz is learning, we care a lot about it. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that Trump will win IN on Tuesday.

Birkel said...

chickelit: "...meddling..."

I always hate it when people exercise their rights to assembly, press and speech. Goes against everything good about America.

Make America great again, am I right?

Birkel said...

Jonna & Rob:

The states of Kentucky and North Carolina will politely tell you that basketball is not more important in Indiana.

The state of California has the most NCAA basketball titles. Second, I believe, is North Carolina.

mikee said...

Indiana is one of those states that the vast majority of Americans can believe is imaginary, just like Wisconsin and New Mexico and Oregon and Alabama, and have that belief affect their lives not one iota.

chickelit said...

@Birkel: OK, "muddling" not "meddling."

Happy?

dreams said...

I went to a funeral once in Austin, Indiana and noticing the unimpressive looking people there I said to my brother who lives in southern IN that it looked more like Hazard, Ky than Indiana and he told me that most of them were in fact originally from the mountains of KY. It showed, people are what they are.

TCom said...

"I dunno, Pence is going to endorse Cruz today.

Might be enough to give Cruz a victory, even a nice victory of 5 points or more."

How many points is Bobby Knight worth?

I'm guessing more than the Guv.

Birkel said...

chickelit:

I happily support your freedom. Perhaps you would like to support freedom of people with whom you disagree.

rehajm said...

(Slightly) Shorter FiveThirtyEight:

Weak sauce our liberal audience can slurp until they succumb to the assinine 'I'm leaving for Canada' gambit

Terry said...

How oblivious are our friends on the Left? This Oblvious:
"Trump orchestrated his primary campaign success on the basis of economic and racial resentment."
That was written by Democrat journalist Dana Milbank. Milbank is apparently unaware that the campaigns of Obama and Hillary are explicitly based on racial and economic resentment.

rcocean said...

Indiana isn't "weird" its normal. It votes Republican because it was spared having a Chicago or a Cleveland.

rcocean said...

Knew an Engineer who went to Purdue who'd go apoplectic whenever you mentioned Indiana. He'd go on a five minute rant about everyone in the state being no-nothing, ignorant red necks, who thought watching Hee Haw was high culture.

He hightailed back to Oregon after graduation.

aritai said...

few seminars in Indian 4+ decades ago. Purdue, Notre Dame, and SE edge of Chicago. Drove most of the time rather than fly in old DC-3s with rags plugging holes in the fuselage. Never saw so much corn. Flat as could be. Depending on the season you couldn't get the pollen out of your clothes or the smell out of your nose. Poor Mr. Cruz has been true to his principles rather than be transactional like your pTb, so his position on Ethanol is going to cost him the convention. Ok, not really it was an act of his G@D that dropped an Andrew Jackson on him, else he’d have won the convention only to lose to Ms. C and the Establishment. But that would still have been fun to watch.

All is not lost however, He’ll get the last laugh on the Establishment when your pTb turns K street into a park, if not one of his amusement complexes will amuse them both, especially when they use parts of those buildings in the wall the Tex-Mex companies will build, and he'll also put a piece alongside the Berlin Wall monument, as a reminder of how oppressive an Establishment is. We'll know the culture has really changed when third grade creative writing assignments are creating "trumpisms" - short phrases that skewer the politically correct in just few memorable words. Like "He'll beat Ms. C. like a baby seal" - which is both true, and a reminder of how many communities where displaced, jobs ended, father's suicided families and industries destroyed, all because the MSM manipulated the average for their personal, self-serving, let's make the proles jump through these hoops, just because we can and don't care about the damage and deaths we cause. Neither did the Communists in their search of the Perfect Man. Good fun, as long as you G@d still has a he!! for these folks that “know best" and were happy to use the power of the state to override free will. Which will also be part of the writing assignment. These kids won’t fall for such nonsense when the grow up.. Maybe. As long as they can kick the clay off of their feet.

Paul Snively said...

I hope Ted enjoyed my old high-school hangout, Zaharakos.

David Begley said...

Nebraska is not strange like Indiana. Cruz wins the Cornhusker State.

buwaya said...

Trump is in Burlingame today.
Sad I couldn't get away to witness the phenomenon myself.
This is history, whatever the outcome.

He just announced he has 1001 delegates.
Also Fox video of him hopping a crowd barrier to get into the hotel, bypassing the protesters.
Overflow crowd as usual.

Achilles said...

Birkel said...
"chickelit:

I happily support your freedom. Perhaps you would like to support freedom of people with whom you disagree."

When you are done with your self induced pity party let us all know. 4 years ago I had to vote for the guy who wrote, passed, and implemented obamacare.

Once you get done projecting what you think Trump believes or what a bunch of losers trying to protect their rice bowl tell you to think Trump believes you can get on board. Or you can go pout in the corner while we actually fight the Left. But there is no principle in what you nevertrumpers are doing. Pretending that more than 10% of the population actually supports Cruz is ridiculous.

Achilles said...

David Begley said...
"Nebraska is not strange like Indiana. Cruz wins the Cornhusker State."

This statement is the result of a total lack of self awareness. There are fewer and fewer people every day who support Cruz. As this support dwindles we have people like David screaming his little throat out you are all strange! We few are the normal ones!

Indiana is going to vote for trump. So have most states. Get on the team or go pout in the corner while we fight.

Michael K said...

"Sad I couldn't get away to witness the phenomenon myself.
This is history, whatever the outcome. "

Was thinking of going to the Trump rally in Costa Mesa last night. I found out too late plus the crowd was huge.

The obligatory illegal aliens were rioting and waving Mexican flags, which should give him another 10% if the vote in June.

They trashed several police cars and beat up one Trump supporter I saw.

Almost gave the impression of our own little Baltimore. Right here in Orange County where a 2 bedroom condo is $700,000.

Deirdre Mundy said...

The Bobby Knight endorsement is iffy, IMO. Yes, that wins IU fans...but in a lot of the Southern Counties, UK fans outnumber IU fans, and in a lot of the manufacturing and farming counties, Purdue is king.

UK people and Purdue people all loathe Knight and IU.

IU is more the humanities types. The actual people with jobs? Purdue! Though----that does lend credence to the "Trump appeals to the unemployed" meme....

Darcy said...

Gosh. That link was another lifetime. I enjoy the sunrises of today more, but good to reminisce.

Birkel said...

Achilles:

You managed to type a bunch of words that meant nothing to me. Please try to stay on topic. I was discussing free speech. I support yours.

But you cannot make me care about the things you want me to care about. I will choose which of your words mean anything to me.

The Cracker Emcee said...

"The obligatory illegal aliens were rioting and waving Mexican flags, which should give him another 10% of the vote in June."

I wouldn't be at all surprised. Triumphalism has made the Left delightfully tone deaf. Everyday I hear more apolitical people speak approvingly of Trump. I still think Free Stuff has bought the White House for the Donks but I'd no longer be surprised if Trump pulls this off.

Saint Croix said...

I think Cruz saying "basketball ring" might have doomed him in Indiana.

As God was handing out Obama similarities, Marco Rubio got freshman senator, untested, hopeful message, foreign name.

Ted Cruz got all of that, plus White Urkel. Great. Awesome. Get out of the fucking library, fuckwit! It's a gym! Find it!

On the other hand, Obama's id shows up, along with Obama, when you run a google search for smug Mussolini.

Donnie never asks God to forgive him because Donnie never makes mistakes. Little Baby Satan! Are you sure?!

Achilles said...

Birkel said...
Achilles:

"You managed to type a bunch of words that meant nothing to me. Please try to stay on topic. I was discussing free speech. I support yours.

But you cannot make me care about the things you want me to care about. I will choose which of your words mean anything to me."

I enlisted and deployed 4 times to fight for your free speech dick.

Wah. Cruz lost. Help us fight or go pout like a coward. You people are tiresome.

Achilles said...

Deirdre Mundy said...

"IU is more the humanities types. The actual people with jobs? Purdue! Though----that does lend credence to the "Trump appeals to the unemployed" meme...."

Is it really your position that Trump is doing poorly among the working class?

Terry said...

I have read eye witness reports that the rioters at the Trump event in Costa Mesa were nearly all easily identifiable as illegals, and were celebrating the display Mexican flag. Good God.

rcommal said...

Interesting factoid:

I was born in Indiana (as was my mother, born and raised on a farm in Indiana, as were her parents, and ... I could go on, but the genealogy gets more complicated there, and there is no purchase in bothering with all of that). So was my brother, and so was each and every one of my first cousins from both sides of my family--paternal and maternal--despite how different or how alike their parents' circumstances were and how that came to be.

I kid you not. This is true.

Qwinn said...

Saint Croix,

The current occupant spends lots of time in the gym, and on the course. I haven't noted that it makes him a better President. I couldn't give a shit if Cruz knows who Larry Bird was, and it boggles my mind that anyone cares. If you were hiring an employee, would you wait until the 2nd interview to ask who their favorite (anything) team is, or do you use it to eliminate candidates in the first round.

Qwinn said...

Achilles,

Thank you. You make remaining firmly in the NeverTrump camp surprisingly easy.

chickelit said...

Thank you. You make remaining firmly in the NeverTrump camp surprisingly easy.

What a lonely, dwindling campsite indeed. When you feel the need to move to a larger, more visible campfire, please don't hesitate.

rcommal said...

About the ring thing: That mistake might have been entirely OK had not there been an concerted effort to reproduce (even leaked, beforehand, as something to look for!) a scene from a movie in the supposed very selfsame gym.

Sheesh. What a bungle of an effort, and what a self-inflicted example of bungling. (C'mon now, even those motivated to try to spin this otherwise ought face the reality.) I do get that each and everyone of the surviving candidates on both sides are tired. Even that reality, IMO, can't ameliorate the ring-thing.

RIM, damnit, rim. Not ring. RIM. (Not hoop, either, if one's going for the re-creation of the movie scene.)

RIM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cdc13CU9Fc

rcommal said...

Darcy said:

Gosh. That link was another lifetime. I enjoy the sunrises of today more, but good to reminisce.


Holy moley, Darcy, I resoundingly agree with you that the link was another entire lifetime away. In the internet age, what's just a few years seems always to become exponential, and in a flash!--just like that. Technology meets millions and millions of people, and the world turns on the head of a pin. Again: just like that.

---

Anyway, that said, I also am a bit gratified to see some verification of my very own consistency (meaning: at heart, I'm no fundamental liar). I had entirely forgotten about that thread, and, yes, indeed it's good to reminisce.

All that said, Darcy, I hope that life is treating you and and all of yours extremely well. Seriously and sincerely.

Birkel said...

Achilles:

If you did enlist and serve, then you should know I have a right not to care. I support your right to freedom in all its glory.

You should try living like that.

And I care not about your words. You have not stayed in topic. Please try to do so or I will continue to mock you, as is my right.

Paul Snively said...

Deirdre Mundy: IU is more the humanities types. The actual people with jobs? Purdue!

I beg your pardon, but Indiana University has a world-class computer science department, home to Drs. Dan Friedman, Douglas Hofstadter, and Raymond Smullyan. My yellowed, dog-eared, autographed Gödel, Escher, Bach is one of my prized possessions, and I am humbled and honored to be acknowledged in Dr. Friedman's most recent text, The Little Prover.

Saint Croix said...

Bobby Knight is going around Indiana saying that Donnie will be a great president because he will drop an A-bomb.

Maybe Walter Matthau can play him in the movie. Two Grumpy Old Men On Prunes. And hey, I saw Bad Grandpa. Funny! But funny ha ha, not funny he should have the nuclear launch codes.

Just because you're ready to die doesn't mean the rest of us are all excited about mushroom clouds. Geez, take up putt-putt already.