December 27, 2015

Maybe Trump fans are the kind of people who won't vote.

The Washington Post has this: "Trump’s fans are excited to rally — but they’re not sure they’ll show up to vote." Reporter Jenna Johnson found some guy named Randy in Des Moines:
“In the end, everything that he’s saying might not happen if he is elected — but I’m willing to give it a shot,” said Randy Reynolds, 49, who used to vote for Democrats but switched to Republicans a decade ago. “I will give him 100 percent. . . . It would be amazing if the majority of things that he said would actually happen. That would be amazing.”
But will he caucus?
“We’re going to see,” Reynolds said. “With kids and grandkids and all this, it’s kind of hectic. . . . We’ll look into it. If our time is available, then yeah, maybe we’ll do it. Maybe. We’ll have to see.”
This story may seem to offset to recent reports that Trump has more support than the polls indicate (because people aren't willing to say they're for Trump).
People's level of education may have something to do with whether they're willing to openly back Trump in live interviews, the Morning Consult study suggests.... In the case of the "Trump effect," blue-collar voters aren't embarrassed about their support — their support is consistent in both live-interview and online surveys. But there's a clear difference among college-educated Republicans. "Among adults with a bachelors degree or postgraduate degree, Trump performs about 10 percentage points better online than via live telephone," the study said. 
But maybe there's a double Trump effect in Iowa. The less educated people who are willing to say they're for Trump are not the kind of people who get out and caucus. And the better-educated people who are the kind who'd caucus have this problem of not wanting to be seen supporting Trump, which would disable them from showing up to caucus.

26 comments:

Hagar said...

But the Democrats are willing to be publicly counted for Hillary!?

Jack Wayne said...

Iowa has proven many times that their caucus is a poor indicator of anything. Who cares about Iowa?

Vile Pliskin said...

I've voted in every election for 20+ years, but those caucuses (cauci?) sound like a tedious showcase for preening. And if you're too embarrassed to tell a live person on the phone you're for Trump, you probably won't stand up in front of your neighbors to support him.

I expect Trump to do much better in "normal" secret voting. Unfortunately.

David Begley said...

I was at a Trump rally in Sioux City. Trust me. They are voting.

Hagar said...

Wait a minute; did this guy just write that while Republicans in Iowa are reluctant to be seen voting for Trump, Union Labor, the very bottom layer of the Democratic base, are not?

Your \Master said...

you could say the same thing for Ted Cruz or Hillary also...
...the only fact being... that more uneducated people say they support those two, than trump. if they don't show up to vote, Trump won't get the votes, but neither wlll Ted Cruz or Hillary either. ...and that ultimately dooms democrats more than republicans, if the last two elections are an example of such.

what Ted Cruz reminds me of is Romney... both are mired with Political correctiveness ....and that will be his undoing against Hillary Clinton if he is the nominee. ...Romney lost against 0bama... because he didn't fight on the issues... and he was considered the most conservative candidate at the time. ...that's why the GOP establishment liked him, just like they like Ted Cruz.

Trump on the other hand ...won't have any qualms about destroying hillary...
...or doing the damage with the scandels that will cost her votes, and he will bring up the issues that do large amounts of damage to her (that Romney failed to do with 0bama... like 0bamacare.) of course, in Romney's defense he couldn't bring up 0bamacare... because of his support for Romneycare which was almost identical.

however Trump can't be linked to 0bamacare... and he can use that issue to both damage hillary and 0bama... her failed idea of hillarycare is enough to sway a lot of people against Hillary. ...but only with a Republican who won't pull kiddie punches and who will use the issue's against the dems. ...don't think Ted Cruz will do that against Hillary... he doesn't seem the type.

the GOP seems to like Ted Cruz only because they know he can be controlled by them more... just as much as the DNC favors hillary because she can be controlled by them easier than someone like Bernie Sanders.

Maybe after Trump wins, he can send Hillary into a benghazi style incident to be captured and executed by ISIS... ...which could be called Karma.
and send the crazy 147 yr old fossil Bernie Sanders to an old folks home to get treatment for his dementia, and Alzheimer's disease. *lol*

Carol said...

Caucuses are a hoot but yeah you have to have the courage of your convictions. But all you need to do is show up and they'll show you what to do. The uneducated are easily intimidated, and cover by saying they just don't care about that sort of thing. (Is The Voice on that night?)

We'll see!

campy said...

"Trust me. They are voting."

Question is, will their votes count?

James Pawlak said...

I do not like Mr. Trump. But, his followers are those most likely to vote.

traditionalguy said...

Wishful thinking is all the Trump haters seem to have left now. They dream of a coming day when loyal men and women will all of a sudden abandon their leader when he is ridiculed for being too strong and for being too smart.

The media pundits are all of a sudden mentally ill.

Bruce Hayden said...

What I get from this is wishful thinking that somehow Trump will be taken down. Was reading something yesterday, and the pundit stated unequivocally that Trump would not be the Republican nominee. Yes, maybe caucuses can take him down this way. But, mostly, I think that it is wishful thinking.

It will be an interesting election. One family member, Republican my entire lifetime, told me that he might vote for Hillary instead of Trump. Why? Did he like her lying, her egregious corruption for the last four decades? That she was the one lawyer kicked off the Watergate investigation for lack of legal ethics? Who doesn't let the little people working for her even address her or make eye contact? Who is likely to make the Obama Recession last another four years, at least? Apparently yes. But, there appear to be plenty of lifelong Democrats willing to jump the other way. Esp. as someone pointed out above, union members. But, also, apparently, even some Blacks and Hispanics. Right now, I don't know which side will lose more voters.

Fernandinande said...

A comedy group calling themselves "The Agenda Project" has a funny Trump video.

Freeman Hunt said...

Trump is inescapable. We watched Home Alone 2 the other day, and there he was in a walk on appearance.

marcwinger.com said...

The intent of WaPo is to mimic a common & current practice of Dem functionaries & some of the Left's electorate to pepper social media with similar things, i.e., "I've talked to my so & so GOP friend & he thinks he's going to vote for Sanders". The line a paraphrase but the near verbatim intent for either Hillary or Sanders keeps appearing in front of me periodically. The logic behind it is flawed, however; because the obvious lie would only be read by a few on the Right, a minimum of irrelevant independent fence sitters who usually vote Dem anyway. If the intent by the Left functionaries, who have spread this practice around, is to infuriate anyone on the Right who have come across the stupidity; it has failed. Creating derision accomplishes nothing in this context.

Sammy Finkelman said...

The amazing thing is that nobody seems to be aware of the things that Donald Trump said in the past, which are not in line with his current statements. Maybe not so amazing - there's no coverage, but where are the other candidates?

Rob McLean said...

Every four years, the media repeats the same story: they find some old lady who's been voting Republican since Calvin Coolidge, but this year, well, she's voting Democrat, because the GOP nominee is just too extreme.

There are no equivalent stories for the other side: you'll never read an article where someone says, "I've been voting Democrat since FDR, but Hillary? No way!"

cubanbob said...

“We’re going to see,” Reynolds said. “With kids and grandkids and all this, it’s kind of hectic. . . . We’ll look into it. If our time is available, then yeah, maybe we’ll do it. Maybe. We’ll have to see.”

The Democrats ought to pause and wonder if that will also play out with Blacks and Hispanics voting for Hillary. I suspect that Blacks will not turn out in record number for Hillary like they did for Barry.

As for Trump, lets see if he wins a few primaries. If he does then things become very interesting for both parties.

Saint Croix said...

abandon their leader when he is ridiculed for being too strong and for being too smart.

wow, just wow

Quaestor said...

Caucusing and voting are very different experiences. To vote in a primary means a short trip to your local precinct polling place, asking for and receiving a ballot, working the machine, whatever... an hour invested, or a rare occasion perhaps more. Attending a caucus meeting is an order of magnitude more tedious and time-consuming. It perfectly suits "process junkies" who can't think of anything better to do with their time.

campy said...

"I suspect that Blacks will not turn out in record number for Hillary like they did for Barry."

The dem GOTV machine will count their votes whether they're cast or not.

Mike Sylwester said...

Bruce Hayden:
.... she [Hillary Clinton] was the one lawyer kicked off the Watergate investigation for lack of legal ethics?

That did not happen.

The Snopes website describes the issue well.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/clintons/zeifman.asp

chickelit said...

@Mike Sylwester: What a long-winded piece apologia that Snopes article is. And that's too bad for your side because people aren't going to go back in time and heap it all on Peter Rodino.

StephenFearby said...

Daily Caller photo slideshow of "The Top 15 People Who Have Endorsed Donald Trump For President".


A mixed bag, but North-Korea loving Denis Rodman beats all contenders for the most fabulous appearance award.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/12/25/the-top-15-people-who-have-endorsed-donald-trump-for-president-slideshow/#ixzz3vS0DKpoJ











Thorley Winston said...

Trump is inescapable. We watched Home Alone 2 the other day, and there he was in a walk on appearance.

I just saw him the other night on a rerun of The Drew Carey Show (at the one minute mark) where he was on his way to go watch the Star Wars trilogy of all things.

Drago said...

Sammy Finkelman: "The amazing thing is that nobody seems to be aware of the things that Donald Trump said in the past, which are not in line with his current statements."

I do not believe this is true.

I think the Trump fans know full well what Trump has said in the past and simply do not care since they believe he has been "playing the game" in order to survive in NYC and beyond.

They believe that Trump's stated positions now accurately reflect his beliefs and that he, Trump, will act on those beliefs.

It's the very fact that so many of the Trump supporters know those previous positions and discount them is why following your tactic of simply repeating that particular piece of Conventional Wisdom is having zero effect on those Trump fans.

If it is your intent to dissuade others from supporting Mr Trump, I would humbly suggest you try a different approach.

Carnifex said...

Your /Master said=="the GOP seems to like Ted Cruz only because they know he can be controlled by them more"

You couldn't be more wrong. The GOPe would rather Hillary win. They will get to vote for more government largesse, or even better for them, vote against it, and have D's pass it. Win/Win for them. Next is Trump. They don't like Trump, but he is the ultimate dealer, and they figure he will keep dealing. Cruz on the other hand was blamed for single handedly shutting down the government with his filibuster. The GOP accepted all the blame for it, as they are wont to do. But make no mistake, they despise Cruz.

Anyone thinking Trump, who is starting to lap his nearest competitor, isn't going to be the Republican nominee, is deluding themselves. Say everyone but Trump,Cruz, and Rubio drop out. (which will happen shortly) and everyone one of those vote goes to Rubio...He catches Cruz for second. That's it. That's the best Rubio can do.

If the GOP tries to broker the convention to put Rubio in, then 20% of their base will sit at home and cheer when Hildebeast wins.

Im trying to be nice, but out here in conservative country, people are getting mad enough to start shooting. They see a government that cares more for non citizens than them. They see a government that will not control its own spending, but dictate what WE have to spend money on. Gadsden flags and confederate flags are flying off the shelf not because people are racist. It's because people are tired of the government(read liberal) bullshit.