March 11, 2014

Jolly wins.

Ho ho.

81 comments:

dhagood said...

not by all that much, but a win nonetheless

Michael K said...

It's a big deal because he was a weak candidate and Sink was much better known. HuffPo is making a big deal out of the previous R Congressman but Obama won the district in the last election. Fall is coming.

YoungHegelian said...

Mr. Jolly, 41, is a former lobbyist and onetime aide to Mr. Young,

Okay, it's a win, but some fresh blood into the system woudda been nice, as opposed to a lobbyist & aide to the incumbent.

Mark said...

Since the Times article doesn't mention the margin of victory, and the Post calls it narrow but doesn't actually print the numbers, I'd bet he won by at least 5 points.

MadisonMan's union dues apparently weren't all that well spent.

Marshal said...

RCP has it 49-47.

rehajm said...

The campaign had largely been commandeered by national political organizations.

When Republicans win, it's because of evil outside money.

Big Mike said...

Sean Trende has to recalibrate his models.

Saint Croix said...

A Libertarian candidate took 5 percent of the vote. So the actual race wasn't that close.

The Republican and Libertarian both ran on "full repeal" of Obamacare.

The Democrat tried to run on "change Obamacare" and she lost by 7 points.

Note too that this is a Democrat candidate who did not vote for Obamacare. And still she lost by seven.

Look at this poll. That's a lot of pissed off people!

gregq said...

The Democrats are major league screwed. They were supposed to win this one. They had the candidate they wanted, and the lobbyist Republican candidate they wanted to oppose, and they still lost by 2%, with another 6% going to the Libertarian candidate (IOW, the 3rd party vote hurt the Republicans, not the Democrats).

To quote ABC:
WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR DEMOCRATS

In theory, Alex Sink should have this election in the bag considering the triple threat of her established political brand, long list of notable Democratic endorsements, and deep fundraising pockets. However, she is still competing in a swing district where every vote matters and results are not clear until all of the ballots have been cast. If she wins, Sink will serve as a confidence boost to Democrats in competitive races across the country. Specifically, Sink’s position on the Affordable Care Act will give Democrats the much-needed boost to argue in favor of keeping and fixing the legislation, rather than repealing it altogether. However, if Sink loses, Democrats may have a hard time attributing the outcome to anything other than voter preference since the party basically cleared the field for her campaign. A loss for Sink could signal a ripple effect of potentially problematic messaging issues for Democrats in other competitive midterm elections.

Saint Croix said...

She had a lot more money than he did.

Sink and Jolly pulled in about $2.5 million and $1 million, respectively,

Outspend him 2.5 to 1. And lost by seven.

gregq said...

1: I need to improve my math, because as Saint Croix reported, the Libertarian got 5%, not 6.

2: Yahoo reported that with ~129,000 votes counted from early voting, Sink was up 49% to 47%. Since there were only ~182,000 votes total, and Jolly won by ~3,400, if Yahoo reported correctly, the Democrats pretty much got all their people to vote early, and then got absolutely hammered on election day (57% to 43% of the two party vote hammered).

I'd say the Democrats can pretty much kiss goodbye any chance to take the House, and any realistic hope of holding the Senate.

mccullough said...

Maybe a rematch in the fall. Jolly Sink II.

Hopefully he can keep his lobbying gig while he's in office.

gregq said...

Let's be fair, when you include 3rd party money it's a lot closer.

But the message of this race is that 3rd parties spending their money attacking a Democrat for ObamaCare appears to be worth a good 5% at the polls (the reviews I saw all had Sink by 3+).

Expect to see the Democrats seriously pushing the IRS to go after 3rd Party outside groups, because muzzling them is the Democrats ONLY hope of avoiding disaster in November.

paminwi said...

Democrats in total spent more than $1M more than Rpublucans did in total. That includes both direct $ and outside $. Direct $ Dems spent more than Republicans.

Poor Chuck Todd must be having a fit tonight e cause this morning all he could talk about was the name recognition Sink had,what a great ground game she had and called the Jolly campaign barely a C+ campaign.

Too ad, so sad, Dems!

SteveR said...

All things considered, and has already mentioned, this was not a narrow or close victory. It basically means the Republicans are under pressure not to lose the hand with pocket aces.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

It basically means the Republicans are under pressure not to lose the hand with pocket aces.

And they will fold under the pressure.

Birkel said...

mccullough:

What you have is a crack at lobbyists?
A crack at a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the First Amendment?

Lame!

cubanbob said...

Sink was sunk. And in a district Obama won in 2012. She had the name recognition, more money and more heavyweights campaigning for her (then he had on his side ) and a Libertarian who drew votes against Sink.
While one special election doesn't mean it's a trend in the November election it's obvious ObamaCare is poison for the Democrats.

cubanbob said...

Correction: a Libertarian that Drew votes from Jolly.

RecChief said...

I wonder if Sink's comments about not having housekeepers and landscapers without illegal immigrants played any part?

SteveR said...

And they will fold under the pressure.

I think the House has been redistricted to a safe status. The Senate is a very tough sled, these folks put Akin and Mourdock out there.

Brando said...

Not a good sign for the Dems--they picked a high profile candidate and spent heavily. Though the district had a slight Republican tilt, it was purple enough that they should have won this one, especially against a relative unknown who could be tarred as a lobbyist.

Bad omen for November. If the GOP recruits well, this could be a bloodbath.

Kelly said...

It isn't over yet. I'm sure they'll demand a recount and find a bunch of absentee ballots in the trunk of a car like the Al Franken race.

RecChief said...

just a got a text from a liberal "friend", apparently the leftist line tomorrow will be "voter suppression". At least that what the venomous shrew said happened today.

RecChief said...

As far as nationally this November, don't forget, the GOP has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

cubanbob said...

As far as nationally this November, don't forget, the GOP has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory"

Chief what's the Vegas line on the Republicans blowing it November? I'm thinking of making a side bet. Just to ease the pain if they act true to form.

traditionalguy said...

The Florida Dems will dreaming of Jaws music and Sharknado attacks tonight.

Grief Counselors are needed.

roger said...

and so it begins.......

SteveR said...

It isn't over yet. I'm sure they'll demand a recount and find a bunch of absentee ballots in the trunk of a car like the Al Franken race.

Did garage go to Florida?

gregq said...

RecChief said...

I wonder if Sink's comments about not having housekeepers and landscapers without illegal immigrants played any part?

Oh, I'm sure that hurt.

But if the rule for Nov is "Democrats expected to win by 3 pts or less will only win if they run a perfect campaign", it's going to be a huge party for Republicans in November.

Paul said...

Hmmm.. District went for Obama twice (which means they hare real soft noggins.)

Libertarians got 5 %.

Lots of 'snowbirds' from up north (and thus more soft noggins.)

Add to that Obamacare's pitiful numbers that have signed up and I can see TROUBLE IN RIVER CITY.

"Trouble, oh we got trouble,
Right here in River City!
With a capital "T"
That rhymes with "P"
And that stands for Piss Poor Democrats"

Hope for change in 2014. And it's coming!!!

Michael said...

But Inga and Crack said......

Michael said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sane_voter said...

The fact that Sink sunk is just further evidence of the GOP's War on Womyn.

AJ Lynch said...

I googled Sink and learned she is a descendent of Chang and Eng, the fanmous Siamese twins. How about that!

MadisonMan said...

The war on women by Republicans claims another casualty.

RecChief said...

"....run a perfect campaign" ? gosh I would think avoiding racist stereotypes would be a pretty low bar. Oh.....but now I remember, Crack and Inga have told me many many times that only the GOP contains racists. Forgot, sorry.

The truth of the matter is that Democrats own the ACA, to use the charitable description, whether they voted for it or not. There are only so many parts of it the President can unilaterally delay for obviously political reasons.

If the GOP can avoid its natural tendency to self destruction, it could be a bleak November for the Democrat Party.

RecChief said...

alongside "voter suppression" look for a second message from the Democrat Party: "Special Elections aren't indicative of anything"

Tom said...

If the Democrats cry voter suppression, I have this question. If the GOP can suppress 7% of the vote in a toss up district, don't you think Romney would be president?

RecChief said...

@Tom -
I didn't say it would make sense, but they will say those things anyway, to play to the base

RecChief said...

By the way, sink carried the 13th district when she ran for governor in 2010.

David said...

AJ Lynch said...
I googled Sink and learned she is a descendent of Chang and Eng, the fanmous Siamese twins. How about that!


Chang or Eng, please.

Chang and his wife had 10 kids and Eng and spouse had 11. And that's just counting the kids by the wives. Apparently they got around quite nicely.

I hope they liked to watch because there was no other option.

David said...

Massive victory for the Republicans. Just massive. The Democrats are doomed. Sunk, you might say. Nothing else matters but this very important and truly earth shattering election.

RecChief said...

David - This was described as a "must win" for Democrats. Stu Rothenberg put it on the same level as a Presidential election. The Democrat Party put a lot into the race, even forcing one candidate out of the primary so that Sink could take the district.

NotquiteunBuckley said...

Let us hope Jolly votes for Boehner.

Republicans need history to show how they spent more than anyone ever.

And borrowed more money than anyone ever.

Because, by God, the Speaker has no power and no choice. They only control 1/2 of 1/3 of the federal government. Not to mention the gosh-darned bureaucracy.

So elect Republicans so things aren't way, way worse. The other side will spend even more, by God.

Now pay me. I gave you dolts much needed advice, so cough it up.

mccullough said...

Birkel,

The constitution guarantees the right to petition government for redress. Not to hire someone to do it for you.

But I personally like when lobbyists serve in Congress. It's more efficient. Companies can cut out the middle man.

NotquiteunBuckley said...

As I've said before, you need to support with your money (fuck your opinion) Republicans so they can turn around and use their impotence as reason for, you guessed it, more money (from you by any means).

To stop the DemLibs 'cause they are worse.

We would be, at minimum, $40 Trilion, which is a Helluva lot of zeros, in debt were it not for our Republican saviors holding down our fort.

AlanKH said...

If he ever runs for Prez, can he find a running mate named Roger?

eric said...

Is Crack on record predicting a Dem win here? I've been hearing him toot his own past predictions lately. Are there any current predictions we can examine the accuracy of?

NotquiteunBuckley said...

Crack may have been correct regarding Romney.

I voted for him and that 40 something choir boy of a running mate he had.

I thought they would win.

But they fucked up the logistics, the personnel to run their voter outreach, and the campaign as measured by the result.

Then Ryan rapes people who earned their compensation in order to rescind the Sequester, which rescinded Ryan and the simplistic view of some not dumb former Republicans.

The Minority Leader is okay with everything in Washington except the Tea Party, and people still think an election victory matters tonight.

Leftists are correct to laugh and mock this glaring stupidity. They do it with evil which becomes more repellent than the foe.

gregq said...

RecChief said...

"....run a perfect campaign" ? gosh I would think avoiding racist stereotypes would be a pretty low bar.

Yes, but there's lots of politicians who can't beat it.

The point is, she had a pretty good deal going for her, with only one dumb statement that got any press, in a "must win" election where she had the full support of the Democrat Party, a weak opponent, and a district where she won in 2010 (Gov race). She had a very short gap between a divisive Republican primary (hers was unopposed) and the start of voting, and she still lost.

If the conditions in November are like the conditions today, then the Democrats will be lucky to only lose 10 seats in the Senate, and another 5 - 10 in the House.

But the odds are, the conditions will be worse for the Democrats than they are now. Because after this election, if you're a big money donor, giving money to the Democrats just looks like a complete waste. Esp. in House races. But even in the Senate, the smart money's going to be "the Republicans will win control of the Senate." Which means more money in bribes, I mean campaign contributions, to Republican Senate candidates, and less to Democrats. Which means the Republican challengers will have the funds to get out their message.

Which means a lot of Democrat Senators are going to get a chance to enjoy ObamaCare in the private sector next year.

Levi Starks said...

Nice story NYT, but your thorough reporting failed to mention that the Republican candidate was seriously outspent by the Democrat.
Not a omission that would have been made if the Republican had been the big spender....

avwh said...

RecChief:
Sink carried the district by 2 pts in 2010 against the GOP wave (the first one against Obamacare), and she only lost the governor's race by about a point.

So, she had more money, a ton more name recognition, no primary fight, and in a district Zero carried twice.

Let's see, whatever happened between Nov 2012 and today?? Obamacare = electoral poison.

The Crack Emcee said...

It's Florida - a slave state.

Means nothing.

RecChief said...

@NotQuiteUnbuckley,

Actually, I don't think that you are that far off. I agree, especially the congresses from 2000 to 2006, there are a lot of GOPers that have no problem with Big Government and big spending (which means big borrowing).

Steven said...

As far as nationally this November, don't forget, the GOP has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

. . . by doing things like nominating the only guy in the Presidential primary field who couldn't run against Obamacare their top-of-ticket candidate.

I mean, there are still people who defend that bit of utter idiocy. "Yeah, sure, it always polled badly, energized the base, and was the one policy that Obama was unequivocally responsible for and unable to backtrack on, but it was more important to nominate the candidate the media was being nicest to in the primaries, even though you could have predicted they'd turn on him in the general if you had the IQ of a turnip."

Let's see, whatever happened between Nov 2012 and today??

Mostly, Romney was no longer on the ticket. Obamacare was a loser before is was a demonstrated failure, starting back with Scott Brown before the thing even passed. All the Republicans have had to do to win elections is be able to run against Obamacare.

damikesc said...

just a got a text from a liberal "friend", apparently the leftist line tomorrow will be "voter suppression". At least that what the venomous shrew said happened today.

Isn't that the claim in EVERY election they lose?

Humperdink said...

Crack said:

"It's Florida - a slave state.

Means nothing."

That is the funniest comment I have read in quite some time.

Crack, you forgot to mention the Seminole Indian tribe and it's impact on this election. And what about Juan Ponce de León?

The Drill SGT said...

Saint Croix said...
She had a lot more money than he did.

Sink and Jolly pulled in about $2.5 million and $1 million, respectively,

Outspend him 2.5 to 1. And lost by seven.

Levi Starks said...
Nice story NYT, but your thorough reporting failed to mention that the Republican candidate was seriously outspent by the Democrat.


Guys, deep in the NYT Story you get:

"Outside groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the House Majority PAC, a Democratic group, spent more than $9 million on mostly negative television ads, robocalls and mailings devoid of nuance. "

RecChief said...

"...devoid of nuance. "
There is a battle cry of the left. Where was the nuance when the Democrat Party was showing Paul Ryan push granny over a cliff? Yeah, they're wedded to nuace. How about the nuance in "Mitt Romney killed a woman, with cancer, by notigiving her husand free healthcare. Layers of nuance over there at the NYT.

Also, I love how it's "outside groups" which is supposed to trigger the response that it was all on the GOP side. I would like to see a breakdown on which leftist groups spent and how much vs conservative groups and how much. Betting it ended up pretty even spending wise.

Robert Cook said...

That guy is only 41?! With those graying temples, he looks at least mid-50s.

The Crack Emcee said...

Humperdink,

That is the funniest comment I have read in quite some time.

Coming from a guy named "Humperdink" I don't know what to make of that.

I'm going to find a dink to hump and get back to ya

Brennan said...

These results are going to draw way more political spending to the state of Florida this year. This is bad for Republicans. Republicans need bigger victories to reduce the amount of political spending they will have to direct to a state like Florida where there is no chance for any pickup of US Senate seats.

RecChief said...

and right on time, the Washington Post serves up two articles about this election, both in Chris Cilliza's blog:

1. Outside money from republicans swayed the election, even though the writer admits in the 3rd paragraph that the Democrat Party and its fellow travelers outspent the GOP side.

2. to paraphrase, "it was s special election, so it's not really a harbinger of things to come in November" Which could be correct, but it's jarring to see a venerable newspaper work so hard to buck of the base of one party.

My, how the Washington Post has fallen

Curious George said...

"RecChief said...
it's jarring to see a venerable newspaper work so hard to buck of the base of one party.

My, how the Washington Post has fallen"

Did you just wake up Mr. Van Winkle?

damikesc said...

These results are going to draw way more political spending to the state of Florida this year. This is bad for Republicans. Republicans need bigger victories to reduce the amount of political spending they will have to direct to a state like Florida where there is no chance for any pickup of US Senate seats.

That actually isn't a bad thing.

The Democrats are seriously cash poor and in debt. They have far fewer resources. Unions have less and less every year as well (true, it's multiple of what the Kochs have ever done, but still). Forcing them to spend in quixotic efforts is a good idea.

to paraphrase, "it was s special election, so it's not really a harbinger of things to come in November" Which could be correct, but it's jarring to see a venerable newspaper work so hard to buck of the base of one party.

Didn't they argue de Blasio winning in NYC was a sign that hard Leftism was a new trend?

gerry said...

The truth of the matter is that Democrats own the ACA, to use the charitable description, whether they voted for it or not. There are only so many parts of it the President can unilaterally delay for obviously political reasons.

If the GOP can avoid its natural tendency to self destruction, it could be a bleak November for the Democrat Party.


Obamacare is the Democrat death magnet. It destroys Democrats everywhere. It is irresistible, sucking the life out of Democrat, Liberal, and Progressive political lives and careers. It is the manifestation of the contradictions of Progressive thought, the fuel of the magnet, which creates suffering for the citizens and thus hatred for Obamacare and its foundational philosophy.

Soros wasted billions to get us here. I wonder if he's happy?

Humperdink said...

Crack said: "Coming from a guy named "Humperdink" I don't know what to make of that.

I'm going to find a dink to hump and get back to ya "

Witty Crack. There are three of wits around here Crack, my friend. Dim, half and nit. You qualify in all categories.

My apologies to all commenters for feeding the Crack. I will try and do better.

The Crack Emcee said...

Humperdink,

My apologies to all commenters for feeding the Crack. I will try and do better.


Yeah, I thought you should've thought of that when you first opened your flap.

Stupis white man.

The Crack Emcee said...

Just like your ancestors, you just can't help yourself.

Gotta have a piece of black flesh,...

cubanbob said...

Obama and the Democrats sold the ACA as America winning a powerball. Obama and the Democrats delayed the employer mandate another two years. They just delayed the individual mandate another two years. Who delays cashing in a powerball ticket for two years?

MadisonMan said...

Who delays cashing in a powerball ticket for two years?

Bad metaphor. You have only 6 months to a year -- depending on the state -- to claim your winnings. Otherwise they revert to the state.

Scott M said...

2. to paraphrase, "it was s special election, so it's not really a harbinger of things to come in November" Which could be correct, but it's jarring to see a venerable newspaper work so hard to buck of the base of one party.

Probably not needing to be mentioned, but what the hell...had it gone the other way, I doubt seriously this sentence would have found it's way into the piece. More likely there would be some bloviating about how all the ACA albatross/deathnell predictions are so much crap. Or something close to that.

cubanbob said...

Bad metaphor. You have only 6 months to a year -- depending on the state -- to claim your winnings. Otherwise they revert to the state."

Ho Ho! They just admitted that only a chump would cash this negative lottery ticket.

ErnieG said...

just a got a text from a liberal "friend", apparently the leftist line tomorrow will be "voter suppression". At least that what the venomous shrew said happened today.

"Voter Suppression" indeed. I live in neighboring Hillsborough County, and when I vote I have to show my drivers license. That means I only get to vote once, and my late father doesn't get to vote at all. If I were a Democrat I would rightfully consider my second and third votes to have been suppressed, as well as my father's.

DanTheMan said...

Ernie,
That's why the mail-in vote always favors the Dems in Pinellas county... all the dead and barely alive in nursing homes exercising their right to vote. With some "assistance", of course.
When concious, alive people vote in Pinellas, the R's come out on top.
Dan
PS CW "Bill" Young spoke at my graduation, back in the 70's. His district kept getting smaller, but it was always his.

Jason said...

I think you also have to count all the Democrat money that got routed to the Libertarian candidate as Democrat spending. No doubt there was a lot of it. It's what I would have done in their shoes.

RecChief said...

I'm still wondering how Crack sees Sink's statement that Florida needs illegal immigrants so the hotel industry can get janitors and landcapers. talk about racism!

eric said...

"I'm still wondering how Crack sees Sink's statement that Florida needs illegal immigrants so the hotel industry can get janitors and landcapers. talk about racism! "

Let me try.

Those immigrants she is talking about are White.

White's owned slaves.

Therefore, they should pay reparations.

DanTheMan said...

Eric, your analysis is much too comprehensive and detailed.

Allow me to summarize all of Crack's posts:
"White = bad."

All the rest is just filler.

gregq said...

I thought the Chris Cilliza article was quite good:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/03/11/republicans-won-the-florida-special-election-heres-what-it-means/

Spin is spin. Here's the reality.

This was a race that most political observers expected Sink to win. Jolly was a lobbyist -- not exactly the best profession in this political environment -- who was decidedly unproven as a candidate. He had to beat back a sitting state representative in a primary that drained his resources to the point where Sink was able to drastically outspend him. And, he did spend the entirety of the race bashing Obamacare, the issue that Republicans insist will be their silver bullet issue in the fall.