November 26, 2013

Dems plummet from 50%-42% edge for 2014 congressional elections to a 47%-49% deficit.

A 10 point shift in one month.

58 comments:

Lauderdale Vet said...

So.

What happened in the past month?

Consequences.

Memories are short these days though.

campy said...

Hard to poll in the trunks of the fraudsters' cars.

Scott M said...

I heard something about this at lunch...something to the effect that the GOP hasn't enjoyed a lead since 2010 and 1994 before that. Two years that chill a DNC operatives 3-sizes-to-small heart.

Lauderdale Vet said...

The saddest thing I wonder is whether it is because of what is actually happening, or because culture itself seems to be turning.

I think more opinions follow culture than reality.

SteveR said...

Based on what I've observed from my dem/liberal/progressive interactions lately, outside of Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and some amorphous Tea Party/Koch Bros conspiracy kabal, there isn't much for them to hope for next year and plenty to be concerned about. A non presidential election.

rhhardin said...

Obama was lying in 2008, as men knew.

This is just women catching up with the obvious.

Big Mike said...

In retrospect the Republicans look as though they were trying to rescue the people who, it turned out, really couldn't keep their insurance and their doctors after all. The Democrats look like gullible fools for their total support to what turned out to be disasterous at multiple level.

But 11 months is a long time.

Thorley Winston said...

I fully expect Republicans to do something between now and next November to reverse whatever gains they’ve made in the past month.

TosaGuy said...

When your average Democrat is disappointed with how things are going when their folks are screwing up, they stay home on election day.

Brando said...

Sort of a meaningless figure, eleven months to the next election and only covering the generic ballot. After all, a month ago and the GOP's numbers were in the toilet. And I have faith in the Republicans' ability to screw up their chances next year by nominating some O'Donnells and Akins.

But it does make one think--imagine with all the bumbling and corruption of the Democrats, just where the Republicans could be if they could make a smart play for moderates. They could have had a veto-proof majority in Congress by now.

tim maguire said...

I can imagine people who would not vote Republican under any circumstance, but I cannot imagine any circumstance where a person might vote Democratic.

jacksonjay said...

Looks like the MSM has a lot of work to do.

MadisonMan said...

I fully expect Republicans to do something between now and next November to reverse whatever gains they’ve made in the past month.

Yup. I expect the (R) weirdos who see the Poll Results and think it's a call to run will come out of the woodwork. And the Media will be all over them. So it's not just the Republicans who will be doing something.

The alarming thing is that Mark Pocan will probably still win re-election in WI-2, because the Republican Nominee will be someone who is afraid of women and Gays, and shows it.

mccullough said...

Agree with Brando. The GOP needs good Senate candidates. Conservative is good, stupid is not. There are open senates from Dems retiring in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana.

And there are weak Dems running for re-election in North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana.

7 seats in states that Romney won.

There are also open seats in Iowa and Michigan, which have Republican governors.



Chef Mojo said...

November spawned a monster.

Marshal said...

Brando said...
They could have had a veto-proof majority in Congress by now.


More likely Obamacare would have had a handful of Republican votes and the media would be constantly referring to Obamacare as "bipartisan" legislation.

It would be nice to kick the nuts out of the room though.

Original Mike said...

"...the Republican Nominee will be someone who is afraid of women and Gays, and shows it."

Whether he is or isn't won't matter. He'll be painted that way.

Jim said...

I think Healthcare.gov is working as well as it could be expected. I guess the deathpanels are for red state Democrat's election prospects.

lemondog said...

Any way we can have both parties lose and have the Halls of Congress vacant?

Rendell mentioned the party problems of Obamacare and somebody hanging around called Albert Ross....

RecChief said...

I lvoe the smell of Preference Cascade in the afternoon

Brennan said...

Any way we can have both parties lose and have the Halls of Congress vacant?

Who will provide oversight of President 18 Holes?

The Drill SGT said...

Big Mike said...

But 11 months is a long time.


True, but there are new Obamacare icebergs ahead every other month. Let me count the ways...

Jan: Stories of folks who used to be covered, now with lapsed policies seeking care

Feb: Folks who thought they'd enrolled, but did not make the payment, or the feds didn't make the subsidy payment, or the 834 was FUBAR, who seek care, (see Jan).

March: Adverse Selection stories

Apr-Jun: Much higher Rates forecast for FY15

Jul-Aug: Small business group cancelations

Sep 30 hour week stories

Oct Large Group employer rate increases,

Nov, FY 15 Rate shock...

Think any of those don't scare the dicks off Dems?


The Drill SGT said...

Left off the:

- don't get to keep Doc stories

- huge new deductible stories

- childrens cancer patient can't go to out of network hospital

- Possible bankruptcies for non-networked hospitals (e.g. 10 of 26 NH hospitals)

Shouting Thomas said...

It's still a year until the mid-term elections.

I'm not going to fret my way through 12 months of imaginary crises.

Wake me up in mid-September, 2014.

Who knows what will be going on then?

Christy said...

The dam has broken. Now The People have permission to dislike Obama's policies (and by extension his Congressional enablers running for reelection) without fear of secretly suspecting they themselves might be racists.

jr565 said...

Ha Ha! - said Nelson style. (from Simpsons).

jr565 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joe said...

Republicans will still fuck this up since they don't understand that disgust at liberalism means the electorate is willing to embrace conservatism.

The poll really should ask; at this point in time, are Democrats of Republicans the biggest assholes?

hombre said...

"... while Democrats have gained strength in the past month among some of their natural constituencies, such as non-white voters and lower-income Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland."

"Natural" overlooks the effects of the Democrat and Obamamedia's racialist and class warfare bombardment of those groups to produce voting patterns that are against their interests.

damikesc said...

That's going to take a heck of a lot of fraud to overcome that.

And the worst thing is --- people who were correct on the problems, such as Palin, got demonized and mocked.

And they were 100% right.

Where the fuck is her apology?

lemondog said...

Least Productive Congress in History? Current One Could Be

This Congress has passed only 52 public laws since it came into session in January, legislative statistics show.

Isn't that a good thing?!

davinci78 said...

Brando said:

"But it does make one think--imagine with all the bumbling and corruption of the Democrats, just where the Republicans could be if they could make a smart play for moderates. They could have had a veto-proof majority in Congress by now."

Thats a big part of what we're trying to get away from. Trying to appeal to moderates. You're not a conservative, so it makes sense what your saying. But, without trying to appeal to moderates, we've made a positive move. THAT is a good sign.

Sorun said...

That good government is proportional to the number of laws passed is just liberals doing the most complex algebra they understand:

y = Ax

David said...

Abortion!

Birth control!

Racism!

There, problem solved.

Curious George said...

If you like your Congressperson, you can keep them.

Michael K said...

""Natural" overlooks the effects of the Democrat and Obamamedia's racialist and class warfare bombardment of those groups to produce voting patterns that are against their interests."

But it does take into account the stupidity of the average Democrat voter. The elites are concerned only with social issues. The economy doesn't worry them. If you doubt that look at a lefty site.

Big Mike said...

At this point it's fair to ask whether there will be fewer uninsured individuals thanks to Obamacare, or will there be more.

It's starting to look like the latter.

If so, then someone has to pay politically for that mistake, and all the talking points in the world can't pin it on the Republicans.

Inga said...

I would encourage Republicans to continue to embrace all they have for the last 5 years. It's a winner, they should stick to it.

sane_voter said...

I know the GOP gets tagged with being the stupid party, but really, could the Dems have fucked up their wet dream any worse than they have?

By the middle of 2009 they had 60 Senators (including the two "independents" that always vote D) and 258 Congressmen. By totally overreaching on Obamacare, they get blown out in the 2010 elections, which causes historic gains in the House and in state government, which gives the GOP unprecedented ability to gerrymander many states at the federal and state level that will lock in GOP majorities for a decade or more.

If they hadn't overreached on Obamacare, the Dems would have been able to lock in their historic gains at the state and federal level. Thank god they royally screwed the pooch.

Now 2014 is portending to be an even greater debacle for the Dems than 2010. Pass the popcorn . . .

cubanbob said...

Tip O'Neil once said all politics are local yet by voting 100% for ObamaDemocratCare they have managed to put themselves in a position to nationalize the health insurance issue. Almost every Democrat running for re-election is going to be facing angry constituents, especially if the projected numbers of people lose their employer provided plans.

cubanbob said...

I would encourage Republicans to continue to embrace all they have for the last 5 years. It's a winner, they should stick to it.

11/26/13, 6:54 PM"

Inga you are right. It won them the house in 2010 and it appears they will keep the house and pick up the senate next year. They should stick with their positions.

El Pollo Raylan said...

Large scale enfranchisement of non-voting citizens could turn that disadvantage upside down.

El Pollo Raylan said...

Inga said...
I would encourage Republicans to continue to embrace all they have for the last 5 years. It's a winner, they should stick to it.

In a better but not perfect world, Tea Party and Tea Party friendly Republicans will make significant gains in both Houses in 2014 as well as Governorships and State legislators. They can restore a balance to the legislative branch, undo some of legislative folly of the Democrats, and begin weakening an over-reaching Executive branch. In a perfect world, the 2016 election will be for a caretaker/bill-signer executive rather than another messiah/autocrat.

Achilles said...

Blogger Inga said...
I would encourage Republicans to continue to embrace all they have for the last 5 years. It's a winner, they should stick to it.

11/26/13, 6:54 PM

Inga is Right in her sarcasm. If Republicans want to come off as bigger jerks than the Democrats they should nominate some retards to go on about traditional marriage and abortion. Because people would totally rather have the republicans tell them how they are morally deficient than have democrats ruin their economic future. Throw in some brilliant lines about the war on drugs. They should also come up with some giant new entitlements like medicare part D. Running two white moderate big government moderate males Like Christie and Portman would be Icing on the cake. Heck with Christie you get anti-gun rights too! How could they resist?

You know this is going to happen. The republican party is more afraid of the tea party than democrats because they like big government too. You don't win elections as the kinda big government party.

ndspinelli said...

I encourage all LPN's w/ a "Bachelor and Masters Degree in Nursing from Marquette" to finally move from an LPN license and take the RN boards.

mtrobertsattorney said...

One good deed deserves another:

I would encourage the democrats to embrace their tried and true theories of white racism and white privilege and run with them.

They should develop these two themes in great detail and explain how they are the real cause of the Obamacare meltdown, Benghazi, the Chicago murder rate and the Justice Department's gun running program.

This strategy is guaranteed to change American politics forever.

mtrobertsattorney said...

One good deed deserves another:

I would encourage the democrats to embrace their tried and true theories of white racism and white privilege and run with them.

They should develop these two themes in great detail and explain how they are the real cause of the Obamacare meltdown, Benghazi, the Chicago murder rate and the Justice Department's gun running program.

This strategy is guaranteed to change American politics forever.

Broomhandle said...

As long as there's free stuff to hand out a majority of the electorate will continue to vote Democrat even if Donk GOTV workers have to leave a trail of EBT cards to get them to the polls. The beast is either growing or starving. If the Republicans can't starve it they're screwed. The moochers will vote Democrat despite Obamacare or even the most egregious of scandals. It ain't rocket science. Stand in line at any Wal-mart around the beginning of the month.

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Carl Pham said...

Pfui. A 10 point shift in approval of Democrats is just a blip, a fluctuation -- gives absolutely no clue at all to how voters will feel in 11 months.

Now, those polls showing increasing support for gay marriage among 18-year-olds. That is the ineluctable march of history right there, and can be used very reliably to predict the politics of 2050.

Bruce Hayden said...

I don't see the Dems recovering before the next elections, a bit over 11 months away. It isn't really the website, except that it is a symbol of why liberalism and big govt don't work. It makes clear that progressivism is built on a demonstrably false set of premises: that the best and brightest work for the govt; that the govt can do much with any decent level of competence; etc.

Yes, Obama true believers, like Inga, Freder, etc, are going to spend the next 11 months trying to distract everyone from the problems. Won't work, as pointed out by others above. Kids are going to die because of ObamaCare, and they have names. Millions have lost their coverage and are losing their doctors and hospitals. And many more millions are going to face this shortly. We are seeing $600-$800 a month increases for some, and many are seeing large increases. All for often inferior coverage (covering irrelevancies, but cutting out their doctors, meds, etc). Not being able to buy that new car, or send their kids to a good college, or take a vacation is the sort of thing people remember in the voting booth.

Mid term elections are about intensities. In 2012, the Dems were able to motivate the takers with fear that the spigot would be turned off, and single women with fear about conservatives stealing their lady parts, or something like that. Their freebies and lady parts are pretty safe under Obama, at least until 2016, and so, I expect, will lack passion in Nov 2014. Not so with those losing coverage, doctors, hospitals, meds, etc, and/or facing major rate increases. Or those knowing these people.

Something else. Obama has been caught repeatedly, over the last 3-4 years, blatantly lying about something very important to a lot of people, and life and death for some. And he screwed himself by adding "period" to the ends of his false promises, thereby effectively denying himself and his minions the ability to later qualify these promises. And when he so brazenly lies about the big stuff, why trust him on anything else? I would suggest that his credibility has taken irreparable harm over the last month or so, which will be hard to recover from. (How can you tell when Obama is lying? Because his lips are moving. ;-)

And this is going to matter, because public good will has allowed Obama survive a number of scandals that would have been catastrophic to a Republican - I.e. Fast and Furious; IRS; Benghazi; loss of Iraq and soon Afghanistan; record long recession and debt; NSA; etc. Much more skepticism in the future - why believe such a blatant and continual lier? Many more won't.

MadisonMan said...

Bruce, I can't argue with what you write. But I think you underestimate the Republican's abilities to be screwed out of this opportunity.

Polls such as those cited by Althouse are always about generic Candidates. Once actual candidates are there -- and vilified by the media for supposed offenses, the races will all tighten.

moistwilly said...

"This Congress has passed only 52 public laws since it came into session in January, legislative statistics show.

Isn't that a good thing?!"

who needs "laws" when we can just write regulations into open ended congressional actions?

gerry said...

Obama doesn't care about stinking polls. He's begun rehearsing protestors as a way to justify a dictatorship.

Yeah, it's a bit over the top (I hope), but do the people in San Francisco actually think that's how government works here?

grackle said...

But 11 months is a long time.

More than enough time for several political reversals and gains for both sides. We live in interesting times.

Right now the MSM seems a bit ticked off at Obama, being forced screaming and kicking into some negative Obamacare coverage because the obvious nature of the screw-ups have made it difficult to apply the usual gloss on events.

Until now the MSM has been able to stack the deck, dealing race cards off the bottom to the left, deuces to the right, but Obama has unexpectedly left them a weak hand. Who would have thought that Obama, master of a widely admired tech-savvy campaign organization, would not be able to roll out what amounts to a sales outlet on the web?

So the MSM was caught by the surprise. Give them time … they'll come up with something. I've noticed that the MSM has established a 80% sign-up rate for the Obamacare site as the baseline success rate. This will allow the MSM to consign any failures to the now deemed insignificant 20%, which will lessen or eliminate the negative anecdote problem which they have at the moment. It also allows Obama to lie about the actual stats. He will finally be able to act as if Obamacare is succeeding.

takirks said...

What I suspect will happen, absent Obamacare getting fixed before April, is a steadily rising panic among Democratic Senators, who are going to be hearing from all the special interests that they are beholden to that, gee, Senator Smith, you're no good to us once you're out of office, or in the minority...

The unspoken bit is going to be that none of the establishment types, whether in government or out, want to be dealing with an energized, activist Congress. The new guys aren't going to know where the skeletons are supposed to remain buried, and a whole lot of long-unnoticed corruption and sweetheart deals are going to come unraveled if that happens.

Soooo... When the numbers get bad enough, and the odds of a bunch of upstart new members get high enough, look for a little deputation from the Senate Democrats to go have a little private tete-a-tete at the White House, where he'll likely be told that he's either going to sign the bill rescinding 99% of his signature Obamacare legislation, or he's going to be impeached. They may even tell him that he's the fall guy for the whole mess, and that it's in his best interest to resign.

Shortly after, there will probably be a little delegation from the Congressional Black Caucus, telling him the same thing, and adding in that he either cooperates in rescinding the bill, or he goes. And, that when he goes, he's not going to be remembered as America's first black president, but as that half-white SOB who screwed everything up...

The next year in politics figures to be very interesting, and I expect a far bigger fallout than Watergate. This is some watershed stuff, that's going on right now. Watch it, and pay attention: Your kids and grandkids are going to be asking questions about it.

Now, the question is, will they be asking those questions around a campfire in some burned-out Federal Building somewhere, or will they be asking them at the dinner table as they do their homework? Who knows, but this next year is going to be politically momentous in a sense that most of us haven't seen in our lifetimes.

grackle said...

When the numbers get bad enough … look for a little deputation from the Senate Democrats … likely be told that he's either going to sign the bill rescinding 99% of his signature Obamacare legislation, or he's going to be impeached. Shortly after, there will probably be a little delegation from the Congressional Black Caucus, telling him the same thing …

Will. Never. Happen. Wish it would, but no.

takirks said...

Grackle, do you really think that the Senate Democrats are going to risk losing the whole shooting match, just to enable a bad law?

I'm betting the establishment types, both Democrat and Republican, are going to look at the poll numbers coming this spring and early summer, and they're all going to be scared spitless. Odds will probably be very good that damn near every incumbent who voted for Obamacare, or who even evinced a slight support for it, is going to get thrown out on their ears come November.

That fact, along with the desire for the people behind the scenes to keep on keeping on with the status quo, is what will doom Obama to either spending his last years in office as a figurehead, or to being thrown out of office by brute force.

I honestly would not be surprised to see an impeachment move coming from the Democrats come early summer. They either get this thing working, which is virtually impossible by design, or they get rid of the figurehead behind it, rescind the damn law entirely, and beg the electorate for forgiveness. It's that bad.

Watergate got a lot of people angry at theoretical crimes by Richard Nixon. This crap reaches out into the pockets of millions of Americans, takes money from them, and then provides lousy health insurance. D'ya think that's going to be somehow less damaging to the incumbency?

Right now, in terms of metaphorical comparison to the sinking of the Titanic, we're right about at the point where the lookout has announced that he sees an iceberg. We're going to hit that iceberg come January, when people who sign up for health care find out that they don't have policies at all, because the idiots in charge didn't get the back end finished that handles payments and subsidies to the insurance companies. Those are going to be the equivalent of the first few rivets going...

When the employer mandates kick in, and the business community realizes it can't afford health insurance as a benefit, anymore? And, then starts dropping millions of employees? That's the point where the Titanic has broken it's back and is plunging to the bottom.

The likely recessionary effects, as people realize how much this is all going to cost them? Probably, those hit this coming summer.

From the perspective of the Democrat establishment types who are in Congress, right now? This is disaster after disaster, all the way forward.

I honestly think they're going to come to their senses and start trying to unwind this whole mess as a bad job, come about April. If they don't, God alone knows what comes next. All I can say for sure is that it's going to be huge.