November 6, 2012

Playing out the Electoral College counts.

A great graphic depiction. (Click on options at the top, picking states and see the various paths to victory.)

31 comments:

Andy R. said...

How many paths to victory does Romney have after he loses Ohio?

Matthew Sablan said...

FL, VA and OH are where the interesting things will happen. If Romney loses Ohio, but wins in FL/VA, things will be crazy. OH is still close, so we won't know what's happening till well after its poll closes.

Matthew Sablan said...

As for if Romney loses OH, that matters if you still consider NC a toss up or have accepted that is a Romney lock, as well as how iffy you feel about WI and PA. I am not of the opinion PA will flip, other people are though.

Either or, if Romney loses OH, then he needs to take FL, VA, WI, CO and IA. If he takes OH (and by definition, if he does that, he's probably taking FL and VA as well), he just needs 4 more EVs (I'm using the CNN electoral map). So, Romney can lose Ohio and still win; it just is not a pleasant scenario to try.

Nathan Alexander said...

Looking at how many paths are open to a win is missing the point.

The number of paths to victory is an illusion of strength or weakness. The ratios of number of paths doesn't indicate strength or weakness.

wyo sis said...

If Obama wins Florida things get pretty narrow pretty fast for Romney. That pretty much ruins your day.

rcommal said...

Time will tell.

Nathan Alexander said...

Winning the states will not be sequential, but simultaneous.

So it really isn't like, "Okay, Romney won/lost Ohio, so now let's look at how the smaller states are doing".

Wargaming the electoral college is what adds the illusion of sequence.

EDH said...

Isn't that graphic predicated on every nontoss-up state being already accurately predicted?

Marshal said...

It should be organized easiest win to toughest win for each candidate. Instead the states are listed by EVs. The identification line is nice, but it would be easier if it flowed through a normal analysis tree.

jrberg3 said...

"If Obama wins Florida things get pretty narrow pretty fast for Romney."

Let's face it, if Obama wins Florida the election is over. It would mean that the polls out there favoring Dem turnout numbers and naturally picking Obama to win were right and we would be looking at an Obama electoral wipe-out.

traditionalguy said...

The siren call of personal commitment to the brave and loving Obama has been going out loud and clear.

How many fools do we have. That is the question. It really matters, as the German people discovered when the end came and their loving leader wanted them all to die for him.

Stay tuned.

Matthew Sablan said...

Note: If you simply concede North Carolina as a Romney pick up, it goes from 431 Obama victory scenarios to 76 Romney victory scenarios to: 193 Obama victory scenarios to 59 Romney victory scenarios.

So, what does this tell us? They're gamed out system is not that great. I'm also not sure why Romney -loses ways to win- if he picks up a state. That's a flaw in the model (or they did not game out enough scenarios.)

Marshal said...

EDH said...
Isn't that graphic predicated on every nontoss-up state being already accurately predicted?


Yes, but if anything outside this tree is switching the victor is obvious.

Matthew Sablan said...

Note: Obama also loses ways to win by picking up a state. If you pick up a state that pushes you -above- the magic number, that shouldn't be a unique, distinct "way to win." It doesn't matter if he scores 300 or 271; what matters are what valid combinations reach above 270.

TML said...

Where's the info for how they picked all the other states? Those assumptions would be good to know. I didn't see it on the page anywhere.

Saint Croix said...

Who the hell is campaigning in Florida? Or North Carolina? Sending the first lady to the airport is not campaigning.

The technology is fun but the ideology is really annoying. Pennsylvania is not in play? Michigan is not in play?

It's like this gadget was designed by Axlerod's moustache.

Romney 331
Obama 207

Matthew Sablan said...

PA is not in play, and I have my doubts about Michigan too.

If Romney wins either of those, I'll be shocked.

Matthew Sablan said...

But, if Romney does pick up either Michigan or PA somehow, then he can suffer to lose FL or OH. It still won't be pretty, mind you, but it becomes doable. If he picks up both, we're looking at a massive tide of red.

Amexpat said...

Pennsylvania is not in play? Michigan is not in play? If Romney wins either of those states he'll win by a landslide. Some for Obama if he wins North Carolina.

Obama is now over 70% at Intrade. Be interesting to see where it moves in a couple of hours.

Matthew Sablan said...

Likewise, if this is true, I'm almost tempted to say that we should instead be gaming out how Obama wins without Ohio.

Matthew Sablan said...

Hah. And the moment after I post that link, it is updated noting that the link to the original source has been pulled.

Carnifex said...

Is everyone else at all happy that we will never have to hear from Nate Silver again, after this election?

Matthew Sablan said...

Chickens, eggs -- the not hatched counting there-of.

Saint Croix said...

Here's the link to the early votes in Ohio. Show Romney with a big lead.

Shouting Thomas said...

Is everyone else at all happy that we will never have to hear from Nate Silver again, after this election?

He's being shot?

Matthew Sablan said...

You'll have to hear from Silver till he retires. If Romney wins he'll just say: "One of those corner-case scenarios I predicted. Aren't I great? I predict -everything.-"

Saint Croix said...

Democrats have lost 300,000 early votes in Florida. That number alone is enough to turn the blue to red. Nate Silver was right!

ricpic said...

How many fools do we have...the German people discovered when the end came and their loving leader wanted them all to die for him.

Hey tradguy, after Stalingrad Hitler was almost as disappointed with the German people as Michelle will be disappointed with the American people tomorrow. Almost. But not the black black disappointment Michelle will harbor. And let's not forget that she and her paramour will have two months left to wreak havoc, total havoc, before they're whisked out the door.

Marshal said...

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground-ohio/332637/what-look-ohio-vote-comes-tuesday-night-david-hartline

Here's a useful description of the Ohio details to follow tonight.

edutcher said...

Frankly, I like Bob Krumm's map.

Andy R. said...

How many paths to victory does Romney have after he loses Ohio?

You ought to come here, genius, you'd see how stupid that remark is.

Saint Croix said...

Who the hell is campaigning in Florida? Or North Carolina? Sending the first lady to the airport is not campaigning.

The technology is fun but the ideology is really annoying. Pennsylvania is not in play? Michigan is not in play?

It's like this gadget was designed by Axlerod's moustache


Almost, the Gray Lady.

EMD said...

The reason Obama has more paths to win is because he's a lock to win CA, NY and ILL. His base of electoral votes is larger from the get-go.