November 6, 2012

"For every inch above normal rainfall, overall turnout drops by a little less than 1%, but Democratic turnout drops by 2.5%."

"Every inch above average snowfall decreases turnout by 0.5%. Since the water equivalent of 10 inches of snow usually equals an inch of rain, it's more likely snow will effect an election."

The word is affect, but okay, thanks for the info.
Wisconsin could have some rain in major Democratic areas and snow in the swing area around Green Bay. If the race were tighter in the badger state, I'd wonder more about whether the weather could flip the race.
Hmm. Tighter than 49% to 49%?

Anyway, the weather here in southern Wisconsin is "Light Snow Mist." Soon to be rain.

74 comments:

AF said...

Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?

After all, the open secret in this election is that Mitt is Great. Doesn't that suggest that he should be able to win despite good turnout from Dems?

Surfed said...

I think we went through the effect/affect thing once before in the comments...

garage mahal said...

Doesn't that suggest that he should be able to win despite good turnout from Dems?

And against the worst president EVAR.

Paul Zrimsek said...

If a mayor were to make a Bloomberg-style botch of snow removal, and everyone got mad and signed recall petitions, you could say that snow effected the election.

AF said...

And against the worst president EVAR.

Who just went through a scandal far worse than Watergate.

jd said...

Althouse's coastal cities fantasy didn't pan out so she has to grasp at straws, hope for low turnout, post fake exit polls, and hypocritically complain about typos (she is the typo queen)

garage mahal said...

Who just went through a scandal far worse than Watergate.

Who threatens our very Judeo-Christian lifestyle, and who will bring a 1000 years of darkness if reelected.

marshall2twr said...

But, what I want to know is how much broken glass will depress turnout?

Wyatt Gwyon said...

Good news, then. The sun is shining in Cuyahoga County.

Paul Zrimsek said...

On the other hand, Obama does not threaten the very existence of lady parts. So there's that.

AF said...

And while there may be questions about the Ohio numbers that Gannett has admitted were fake, we all know in our gut they're accurate.

These fake but accurate numbers show Romney with a solid lead in Cuyahoga county. No Republican has won Cuyahoga County since Richard Nixon in 1972.

Conclusion: Romney landslide! We want these voters at the polls. They're gonna vote for Mitt the Great.

Chip S. said...

I always root for low turnout among low-information voters.

Citizens who do not even go to the polls sometimes explain that they are too uninformed about the candidates to vote.

dreams said...

We know that the Dems are less inform, less motivated and especially less motivated to get up and go to work. Where's my check?

AF said...

Who threatens our very Judeo-Christian lifestyle, and who will bring a 1000 years of darkness if reelected.

Who is plotting his revenge on white people.

Mike said...

Ha ha ha ha ha.

Why is that rain has a partisan effect, I wonder? Women and minorities are harder hit? Republicans own umbrellas?

Marshal said...

garage mahal said...
Who just went through a scandal far worse than Watergate.

Who threatens our very Judeo-Christian lifestyle, and who will bring a 1000 years of darkness if reelected.


There's nothing more ridiculous than garage, and democrats generally, mocking others for overstatement. As if their candidate's entire campaign weren't based on hyperbolic scare tactics ten times more ridiculous.

Romney threw that senior off the cliff! Romney killed his employee's wife! The biggest assholes, like garage, are the first to claim outrage when others use their tactics. One difference though: the Obama campaign actually makes the asinine comments above, while garage has to make up the Romney counterpart. But at least garage gets to grandstand, that's what's important to him.

Mike said...

Ann can't you put a "LIKE" button under Marshal's icon so I can click it?

IggyRules said...

That's because most farmers are Democrats and have more chores to do in bad weather. Everyone knows that.

Curious George said...

"AF said...
Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?"

Perhaps you could point our exactly where she is "openly rooting for a low turnout?"

What a fucking moron.

Chip S. said...

It's a penumbra that emanates from the post.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

AF said...

Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?

I don't know. If the rain makes it too much trouble to vote more than once, or keeps the dead from bothering to vote, that might be a good thing.

garage mahal said...

The biggest assholes, like garage, are the first to claim outrage when others use their tactics.

It's not outrage. It's laughter at all the hysterical bullshit that has come from the right wing the last four years.

Drago said...

Apparently picturing Paul Ryan wheeling his own grandmother over a cliff is not "hysterical bullshit".

Who knew?

marshall2twr said...

Still waiting on that Scott Walker indictment.......

AF said...

It's not outrage. It's laughter at all the hysterical bullshit that has come from the right wing the last four years.

Right. In addition, I tried to limit my ridicule to hysterical bullshit that Althouse herself has perpetuated.

wildswan said...

Nomination for Broken Glass Voter 2012:
Just got finished helping a friend whose absentee ballot got messed up so he flew in from California to vote in Wisconsin.

Marshal said...

garage mahal said...
It's not outrage. It's laughter at all the hysterical bullshit that has come from the right wing the last four years.


Yes, it's so hysterical you have to make it up, all while ignoring the hysterical bullshit foaming from your own mouth. Missed your laughter at Obama's Throw Grandma From the Cliff campaign. Must have been because you were repeating it so fast it didn't occur to you to actually think about it.

Pose for us some more garage. but get a mirror first, so at least someone will be impressed.

Drago said...

AF: "In addition, I tried to limit my ridicule to hysterical bullshit that Althouse herself has perpetuated."

Well, since you have already, in this thread, completely misrepresented what Althouse wrote in her blog, perhaps your time would be better spent trying to put a lid on your own hysterical bullshit.

Better yet, you could point out precisely what it was that Althouse wrote that leads you to believe she is openly rooting for low turnout.

Don't worry, none of us will be holding our breath.

EMD said...

Citizens who do not even go to the polls sometimes explain that they are too uninformed about the candidates to vote.

I admit to skipping a race in which I had very little idea who either of the candidates were, their positions or the office that they will serve.

I also admit to partially voting for Rick Beer as a county commissioner because of his name.

X said...

I gather AF is some kind of 3rd tier prof who doesn't "do" facts.

garage mahal said...

Yes, it's so hysterical you have to make it up, all while ignoring the hysterical bullshit foaming from your own mouth.

I didn't make anything up. Don't have to. The "Obama threatens our Judeo-Christian lifestyle" was just said by Paul Ryan on the stump.

The "1000 years of darkness" was a Chuck Norris quip.

echo said...

"Who threatens our very Judeo-Christian lifestyle, and who will bring a 1000 years of darkness if reelected."

+1

Drago said...

X: "I gather AF is some kind of 3rd tier prof who doesn't "do" facts."

Rather it appears that AF (as most leftists) proceeds from a vast array of "known facts" which form an unstable foundation for actual fact-based discussions.

This is why objective facts are to be avoided like the plague.

Nonapod said...

At this point I'm still astonished at how people can defend Obama. The guy's been a disaster. I'm not talking about if you believe he's a socialist or Marxist or if you believe he's been consciously attempting to destroy/remake America. I personally have no idea. But just from what I've seen I've concluded that he's incompetent at best and utterly morally bankrupt at worst.

This is a guy who has shamelessly accused his opponent of lying even though he has stretching the truth, equivocating, being evasive, and blatantly lying so often it's ridiculous. He accuses his opponent of flip flopping despite breaking multiple campaign promises himself, changing (evolving) his position on several major issues. It's really insane how people can be so blindly loyal.

jrberg3 said...

The snark and sarcasm is strong with the libs today. I get that sense of forboding and desparation from them.

Drago said...

Here's what garage said Ryan said: "The "Obama threatens our Judeo-Christian lifestyle" was just said by Paul Ryan on the stump."


Here's an account that more accurately captures precisely what Ryan said: http://nation.foxnews.com/paul-ryan/2012/11/05/paul-ryan-obama-would-compromise-judeo-christian-western-civilization-values

snip: "The GOP vice presidential nominee said in the “critical battleground states” it will make a “big difference” if people ”are worried about…whether or not we’re going to go down the path the President has put us on.”

“It’s a dangerous path,” Ryan said on his opening remarks on the call, which has been rescheduled at least once. “It’s a path that grows government, restricts freedom and liberty, and compromises those values, those Judeo-Christian, western civilization values that made us such a great an exceptional nation in the first place.”


Quite different indeed.

It's almost like that much philosophical context overwhelmed garage.

Methadras said...

garage mahal said...

Who just went through a scandal far worse than Watergate.

Who threatens our very Judeo-Christian lifestyle, and who will bring a 1000 years of darkness if reelected.


No, just 4 more years of his particular darkness, but you go right on ahead projecting your mongoloid retarded hyperbolic crap. it's what you do best.

Marshal said...

garage mahal said...
Yes, it's so hysterical you have to make it up, all while ignoring the hysterical bullshit foaming from your own mouth.

I didn't make anything up. Don't have to. The "Obama threatens our Judeo-Christian lifestyle" was just said by Paul Ryan on the stump.

The "1000 years of darkness" was a Chuck Norris quip.


Yeah, Chuck's joke versus the Obama campaign's own ads. It's clear why laughter is appropriate.

But don't be confused: we're laughing at you, not with you.

Ann Althouse said...

"Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?"

Imagine the poor taste the liberals would show if there were anything like this shaking out for them?

Anyway, I think it's good to have the most serious-minded people voting. If it's mainly a fair-weather outing for you, don't vote. That's a good idea.

I celebrate all the people who don't care enough or know they don't know enough and refrain from voting.

Refrain away! It's the better part of wisdom.

People are not given enough credit for the things they refrain from doing.

edutcher said...

Registered Demos tend to be low-info, unreliable voters, that's why the graveyard vote is so important.

You can count on the dead to stay dead.

AF said...

Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?

After all, the open secret in this election is that Mitt is Great. Doesn't that suggest that he should be able to win despite good turnout from Dems?


High turnout favors the Romster.

And while there may be questions about the Ohio numbers that Gannett has admitted were fake, we all know in our gut they're accurate.

These fake but accurate numbers show Romney with a solid lead in Cuyahoga county. No Republican has won Cuyahoga County since Richard Nixon in 1972


Even in Cuyahoga County, the Romney signs far outnumber the Zero signs.

traditionalguy said...

We need to put Garage on a suicide watch tonight.

Think of your Lab, Garage. She needs you and she will be kind to you despite Romney's Rule.

Michael K said...

" Blogger Mike said...

Ha ha ha ha ha.

Why is that rain has a partisan effect, I wonder? Women and minorities are harder hit? Republicans own umbrellas?"

In Los Angeles when I was a medical student, the quietest place in town was the pediatric ER on a rainy night. The parents wouldn't take the kid to the ER if it was raining. Obama voters every one.

Shanna said...

I admit to skipping a race in which I had very little idea who either of the candidates were, their positions or the office that they will serve.

I do the same on occasion. If you don't have an opinion or know anything about the candidates, why not skip it? I have voted against several people because their commercials pissed me off.

traditionalguy said...

A rainy day will make bicycle riding too dangerous. Then the Madison Progressives will be stuck at home.

jrberg3 said...

"If it's mainly a fair-weather outing for you, don't vote. That's a good idea."

This about sums up my feelings on early voting. We seem to keep going down the road of making voting as easy as possible where it doesn't have to effect (or affect!!) our daily routines.

If voting is our civic duty then it shouldn't be done along the path of least resitance.

AF said...

Drago: "Better yet, you could point out precisely what it was that Althouse wrote that leads you to believe she is openly rooting for low turnout."

Althouse: "If it's mainly a fair-weather outing for you, don't vote. That's a good idea. I celebrate all the people who don't care enough or know they don't know enough and refrain from voting."


Drago said...

That's it?

That's rooting for low turnout?

LOL

Rusty said...

X said...
I gather AF is some kind of 3rd tier prof who doesn't "do" facts.


He seems to lack the critical thinking skills needed to be a leader. Although if by chance he is a professor of anything he's stealing his paycheck. So 'bravo' for that.

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Rocketeer said...

Refrain away! It's the better part of wisdom.

People are not given enough credit for the things they refrain from doing.


"'Better than nothing' is a high standard," voting edition.

Curious George said...

"AF said...

Althouse: "If it's mainly a fair-weather outing for you, don't vote. That's a good idea. I celebrate all the people who don't care enough or know they don't know enough and refrain from voting."

So you saw into the future? Just fess up that you're a dumbass.

AF said...

"So you saw into the future?"

No, I understood the clear import of Althouse's post, which she later confirmed.

Maguro said...

The thing is, an inch is a lot of rain, let alone an inch above normal. Typical rainfall for Madison in November is 2.3 inches for the whole month, so over an inch above normal on election day probably doesn't happen much.

Rocketeer said...

AF, you continue to see something that is not there, simply because you wish it were there.

Read.

Slowly.

Think.

Comprehend, if you can.

What she said (and even implied, broadly interpreted) is not what you say she said. It is something altogether different. I suspect it's the nuance throwing you off.

I suspect it's not entirely your fault, and that it's philosophically hard-wired. Liberals, despite their self-professed expertise in the field of nuance, don't actually do it very well in real life.

Curious George said...

"AF said...
"So you saw into the future?"

No, I understood the clear import of Althouse's post, which she later confirmed."

Yet when asked for how, you can produce nothing.


And the only thing confirmed is that when one describes a group as not th "most serious-minded people voting" you assume that it means Democrats.

You really are a moron.

Rocketeer said...

And the only thing confirmed is that when one describes a group as not the "most serious-minded people voting" you assume that it means Democrats.

Again, the nuance thing. They're just not good at it, even when it might prevent them from pointing th gun back on themselves.

Daddy Binx said...

Do I have to say it?

Rain is RAAACIST!

garage mahal said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
traditionalguy said...

I suspect those ancient Greeks had mostly good weather in Athens.

We use those ancient Greek customs in November in North America at our own peril.

Triangle Man said...

Imagine the poor taste the liberals would show if something were increasing voter turnout?

Ignorance is Bliss said...

People are not given enough credit for the things they refrain from doing.

If I'd had college professors like you, I could've graduated in 4 years.

creeley23 said...

High turnout favors the Romster.

edutcher: That's my thinking too, rain and snow notwithstanding.

Turnout may be the best way to get a sense of how the election is going until there are respectable numbers of counted votes.

So yeah, I'm rooting for high turnout.

Paddy O said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Paddy O said...

In horrible weather, I sneeze and I lose the puppets.

I'm thinking Governor Romney won't do that.

creeley23 said...

Googling, I see many news stories about high turnout. I do not believe those extra motivated voters are showing up for Obama.

harrogate said...

AF asks:

"Professor Althouse: Isn't it in slightly poor taste for you to be openly rooting for low turnout?"


Blogger answers:

"Imagine the poor taste the liberals would show if there were anything like this shaking out for them?"

shorter blogger answer: Yeah, it's in poor taste. But so what?

More honesty is a good thing. People are not given enough credit for the lies they refrain from telling, after all. So, I applaud this response.

BCC said...

The Guardian is a Socialist rag. They have no feet on the ground re/ US polling, they're just churning CW to the benefit of their own point of view. End of story.

Having said that, their weather/swing state predictions are laughable. This is probably because as Englishmen, they (and dogs) have unfathomably high comfort levels with rain.

Finally, who cares if the Guardian's reporting suppresses voter turnout in Manchester and Leeds? How many electoral votes does the North Country have anyhow?

mccullough said...

Althouse is right about people not getting enough credit for refraining. Some of the best parents I know are those who decided not to have kids.

Calypso Facto said...

I drove through a veritable blizzard of wintry mix in the northern half of Wisconsin today, but I have no idea if that will tip the scales in either direction. Will non-voting by unenthusiastic Democrats who stay home be offset by conservative seniors who don't want to drive in the slippery conditions? Will more rural folks stay home than urban? We'll probably never really know what the impact has been.

BCC said...

My broken glass story -

I'm home at sick with the flu, as is my 4 y.o. (youngest of 3). After dosing up on cold medicine and a long nap, I hauled us both over to the polls to stand in line and vote for Romney.

In case I forgot to mention, I live and vote in Washington, DC. I know how important my vote is in the EC, but I needed to cast it.

Conservatism in DC is truly the "Lord's work"...

creeley23 said...

NRO has some specific swing-state voting data from the Romney campaign that look promising: higher turnout in Republican counties, lower turnout in Democrat counties.

Of course, it's picked by the Romney people, so no telling if it's representative, but if it is, it's going to be a good night for Rs.

creeley23 said...

BCC: Good job!

Drago said...

Triangle Man: "Imagine the poor taste the liberals would show if something were increasing voter turnout?"

I remember quite distinctly how the "bushmcchimpyhitler" left reacted when the Bush/Rove Base Election strategy increased significantly republican voter turnout in 2004.

Poor taste indeed.

Many on the left STILL claim that Bush "stole" the 2004 election.

Election troofers!

Chip Ahoy said...

Yes, دردشة ومنتديات عراقنا, that's a very a good point, but that panhandle bit of Florida on the other side of the hour line is red neck country, I read somewhere, and they mostly vote Republican on account of them being red necks.