October 16, 2012

Daily Kos/SEIU poll: Obama 46%, Romney 50%.

"At a time when other polls are moving back in the president's direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:"
Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55
And in the swing states, it's Obama 47, Romney 50.

43 comments:

Matthew Sablan said...

Ace points to this PPP tweet from last week: "Impt to note on our national poll- 75% of interviews conducted within 48 hrs of debate. Would encourage Dems to wait a week before PANIC"

So, can we panic yet? (I still think it is too early for polls. But... I can see the appeal.)

cubanbob said...

As Glenn says let's not get cocky. A week in politics can be a lifetime.

Jay said...

Note:

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank

The latest Gallup/ USA Today Battleground survey shows President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48)


If Romney ties Obama with women voters on election day, he will easily get 300 EV's.

edutcher said...

Let's see tomorrow's Ras.

The Romster led Zero all weekend by 2.

Nonapod said...

If the polls are to be believed there must be hundreds of thousands, if not millions of individuals out there who've changed their opinion back and forth multiple times over the last month or so.

Matthew Sablan said...

Nonapod: I dunno; hasn't Obama been pretty much always ahead by slightly higher than MOE, and his support base slowly eroding until the Tsunami of the Debate Heard Round the Electorate? I don't really follow the polls, but I sort of felt that was the trend.

Shouting Thomas said...

Dick Morris has been predicting a Romney landslide for several months.

Of course, Dick Morris has been wrong in every one of his previous predictions.

Matthew Sablan said...

(And, note, that's with wonky D+6 or D+11 samples that were common in the summer; I think recent ones have settled on more reasonable D+1-4 or, slightly less reasonable than D+1-4, but more reasonable than D+9-11, R+1-3 sample sizes.)

Original Mike said...

"At a time when other polls are moving back in the president's direction, ..."

Huh?

Seeing Red said...

Morris said a few years ago Hillary will never be president.

We will see what 2016 brings........

ndspinelli said...

"Houston, We have a problem."

David said...

The Sunday sample is so far out of whack with the others that it's suspect.

Or Biden really, really bombed.

AF said...

Glad to see the PPP polls get some love from Althouse!

At this point, you don't have to cherry-pick polls to argue that Romney is WINNING. What with Romney's recently-revealed Greatness, the persuadable women of America finally snapping to the hateful narcissism of Obama, and the worse-than-Watergate Libya scandal, everything is looking rosy for Mitt.

TosaGuy said...

Presidential campaigns are marathons and not sprints.

Romney appears to be pacing it properly. He holds serve in the tonight's debate and he ticks off another comfortably run mile while Obama is huffing and puffing a little more.

If you carefully watch a distance race and see two runners running together virtually the entire time, you can see the precise moment where the winner destroys the spirit of the loser. The winner kicks it up a quarter step, the loser trys for about four strides to keep up but then you see the shoulders collapse and resignation take over.

Now the guy who takes off that quarter step sometimes breaks too soon and can be reeled in if the other guy doesn't give up. Then you have a great race to the end.

edutcher said...

Shouting Thomas said...

Dick Morris has been predicting a Romney landslide for several months.

Of course, Dick Morris has been wrong in every one of his previous predictions.


No, he did pretty well with the mid-terms.

I'd also add several other bloggers (Don Surber, if you read him) have predicted a big win for the Romster, as in 40 states or so.

Matthew Sablan said...

I don't see a big win happening; if it happens, it will probably be on the scale of how Obama beat McCain (sizable, but not a blow out.) Of course, that didn't stop people from claiming a mandate, so, whatever.

SteveR said...

In other words SEIU folks.. "vote early, vote often"

Scott M said...

Alan Colmes mentioned on his radio show the fact that the polls all seem to be skewing toward Romney. His exasperated question to the GOP was, in essence, "If you thought the polls were rigged and skewed before, why do you believe them when they are in your favor?"

The point Colmes misses is that if one assumes the polls are rigged because those behind the work want to see Obama re-elected, those same polls skewing toward Romney, with that bias already baked in, are doubly devastating for POTUS.

sonicfrog said...

And the comments at KOS are pretty subdued.

Shouting Thomas said...

If Romney does prevail, will that be the end of the line for the legacy media like the NY Times?

They've shot their wad managing the news to advance Obama's candidacy.

What a repudiation of the legacy media a Romney victory would be!

Freeman Hunt said...

I think Romney is going to win.

Unfortunately, I thought Fred Thompson was going to win last time.

Amexpat said...

If I had to bet, I'd now bet on Romney to win. Perhaps that's cause I'm now leaning towards Romney, something that I did not expect before the first debate.

Odd thing is that Obama is still over 60% at Intrade.

deepelemblues said...

What other polls are these that are shifting back to Obama?

Not Pew, not Gallup...

deepelemblues said...

Not USA Today either...

Jay said...

What other polls are these that are shifting back to Obama?

Not Pew, not Gallup...


It is probably a reference to the WAPO Poll that showed Obama +3 with a D+9 sample.

Marshal said...

It is funny to watch the left hype the "gender gap", which in their parlance this means a deficit of women for Romney. But the race is tied, and there are only two genders, so there must be a corresponding gender gap of men for Obama. Do they really think hyping the one does anything except highlight their pro-Obama bias?

Jay said...

I love that these losers are now reduced to saying you "Need to read Nate Silver, he cuts through the bullshit"

It must be so hard being a liberal needing that blanket of lies to keep you warm & toasty...

Scott M said...

If I had to bet, I'd now bet on Romney to win.

Not so fast. As we saw recently, one debate performance can change quite a bit (unfortunately, because it appears sheeple put more stock in that than policy). If Obama has a good night while Romney has a poor one, everything could swing the other way. On the other hand, Romney could sew it up tonight and odds are he knows it.

If this debate goes the same way as the last one, as far as Obama's performance is concerned, don't expect the liberal punditry to lose it like they did on the last one. They are steeling themselves today to ward off any such outbursts. ManBearPig will probably blame the air again, though.

kcom said...

"If you thought the polls were rigged and skewed before, why do you believe them when they are in your favor?"

Two answers:

1) They are a lot more believable when the samples are D+3 instead of the ridiculous D+11 put-up jobs we were seeing earlier.

2) Even if we don't fully believe them, we can still enjoy the panic they are causing in it-was-all-over-in-September Democrats.

furious_a said...

Odd thing is that Obama is still over 60% at Intrade.

Pump-and-dump.

K in Colorado said...

Haven't we seen this before? As the election gets closer, the pollsters with D+6 or D+9 suddenly start using D+3 or less. On a funny note, in a weatlthy, mostly liberal Denver neighborhood, I've been seeing a panhandler with a sign "Give me a Dollar and I won't Vote for Romney". I bet he's been raking in a bundle.

I have seen several Romney-Ryan signs going up, lots of bumper sticker on cars around my area (suburban Arapahoe County, one of the main swing counties for the swing state of Colorado). Very few Obama signs and bumper stickers.

MadisonMan said...

Unfortunately, I thought Fred Thompson was going to win last time.

I never thought Thompson would win.

Other than that, I agree with you.

I'm trying to remember my acumen at predicting election results. But I can't recall.

Marshal said...

Scott M said...If Obama has a good night while Romney has a poor one, everything could swing the other way

This is not quite true. If the exact same perceived difference occurs in the second debate (whichever direction) the impact will be smaller for two reasons. (1) The portion of swayable voters has decreased, and (2) the reason the first debate had such a dramatic effect was audience expectations. Since expectations among undecideds are largely set by the MSM they believed Romney was a scary religious nut and an economic idiot to boot. This debate can't have the same effect because expecations are different.

Matthew Sablan said...

Also, everything is going to be looked at in reflection of the last debate. "Well, I guess Obama isn't as terrible as I thought," will be the thought not: "Well, that last debate was a non-event I should ignore."

Ultimately, has any debate been as talked about as what, someday, may be known as the flashpoint in the 2012 election?

kcom said...

"the flashpoint in the 2012 election?"

You mean the October Surprise?

Jay said...

From Time:

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+. See the map above.

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

tiger said...

FTA: 'At a time when other polls are moving back in the President's direction...'

Huh?

Just how high are the folks at DKos?
The ONLY polls moving towards Obama are the ones that are heavily over-sampling Dems/Leftists.

It always amazes me when people - and I mean the Left - lie with such aplomb and don't get called out by the MSM...oh! Wait! Never mind.

tiger said...

' Shouting Thomas said...
Dick Morris has been predicting a Romney landslide for several months.

Of course, Dick Morris has been wrong in every one of his previous predictions.


He hasn't but thanks for calling.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

K in Colorado,

Haven't we seen this before? As the election gets closer, the pollsters with D+6 or D+9 suddenly start using D+3 or less.

Thereby motivating/panicking Democratic voters who wouldn't have bothered voting when all the polls were showing a comfortable Democratic win? Not implausible. If an election hinges on turnout, as this one certainly will, it's in both candidates' interests to portray it as neck and neck -- and that, moreover, in as many states as possible.

It must be heartening for the Republicans to see, finally, some actual enthusiasm about Romney, as opposed to the "Well, at least he's better than the last guy/gal who imploded" vibe that ran through the interminable primaries. Meanwhile the Obamamania of 2008 is certainly missing this year. And the thing about close elections in which the level of enthusiasm is about the same between the parties is that Republicans tend to win them, because their part of the electorate generally shows up to vote.

Crunchy Frog said...

Polling anecdote:

Last night I sat through the most blatant push polling I have ever experienced. Got a call last night at 9pm - gal on the phone wanted to talk to the woman voter of the household. After I told her there wasn't one, she asked me if I was familiar with [CA] Prop 34? Uh, sure. (It's the one to abolish the death penalty. I knew there was one, didn't know what number it was.)

She then goes to tell me of how much money we will save that can go to the schools, and parks, and libraries, if we don't have to pay for that pesky appeals process, and how there have been over 800 people sentenced to death in Cali and only 13 that have been executed. (Sad, but true. Most DP inmates die of old age.)

After all that, she asks me how I intend to vote. I said I was undecided. I lied. I didn't feel like telling her that if we had a more rational appeals process like Texas, we would be killing a lot more dudes who needed killing.

If this is an example of the polling that people are subjected to, it's no womder there is a 9% response rate, and that the numbers are so far divorced from reality.

Crunchy Frog said...

Polling anecdote:

Last night I sat through the most blatant push polling I have ever experienced. Got a call last night at 9pm - gal on the phone wanted to talk to the woman voter of the household. After I told her there wasn't one, she asked me if I was familiar with [CA] Prop 34? Uh, sure. (It's the one to abolish the death penalty. I knew there was one, didn't know what number it was.)

She then goes to tell me of how much money we will save that can go to the schools, and parks, and libraries, if we don't have to pay for that pesky appeals process, and how there have been over 800 people sentenced to death in Cali and only 13 that have been executed. (Sad, but true. Most DP inmates die of old age.)

After all that, she asks me how I intend to vote. I said I was undecided. I lied. I didn't feel like telling her that if we had a more rational appeals process like Texas, we would be killing a lot more dudes who needed killing.

If this is an example of the polling that people are subjected to, it's no womder there is a 9% response rate, and that the numbers are so far divorced from reality.

cold pizza said...

Remember, BJ Clinton won when Ross Perot split a sizable portion of Rs away from Bush Sr. Who is there to split the Rs away from R/R? Johnson? To quote Jay:

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!"

-CP

Alex said...

Don't get cocky kid.