September 30, 2012

Why is Obama postponing a trip to Columbus, Ohio to come to Madison, Wisconsin the day after the first debate?

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says: "Obama naturally would want to be on friendly turf after the debate, and he may think he'll draw a bigger turnout here than in Columbus... Columbus is mixed politically... Madison is heavily Democratic." And: "He may want to declare victory in the debate right there in Ryan's backyard."

Ben Sparks, spokesman for the Romney campaign in Wisconsin says: "He's finally acknowledging he has a Wisconsin problem."

Charles Franklin, director of political polling at Marquette University, flips that analysis around: Maybe Obama thinks he doesn't have an Ohio problem.

44 comments:

BarryD said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
BarryD said...

I suspect he wants to go to a supportive crowd.

Obama may or may not have a Wisconsin problem, but Madison is probably second only to Berkeley, California as a comically-left-wing college town. If Obama has a Wisconsin problem, it's not in Madison.

Columbus is a swing city in a swing state. It's the kind of place that any candidate, Democan or Republicrat, will get mixed responses, and will be asked to explain himself. That's the LAST thing Obama wants to do, the day after the debate. My wife worked in Athens, a good number of years ago now...

Anyone suggesting that Obama doesn't have an Ohio problem is full of it. EVERY candidate, in every election, has an Ohio problem. I visited there, late one October. Ohio feels viscerally different from most places. Every house, it seems, has yard signs from different candidates from what the neighbors' signs are. I had never experienced anything like Ohio, but the locals say that's how it is every four years.

Sorun said...

I'm going! Now where did I put that "Recall Walker" sign...

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

Meadhouse should go to protest.

At a minimum y'all need to video document the event.

Althouse can show you cons how you should use video to uncover the evils of libs w/o being so called (by Althouse) racists.

The Drill SGT said...

Well the local tv stations. Have got o be pleased

Free content

Full ad schedule

What's not to lik

Bryan C said...

Maybe Obama sees Ohio as a lost cause. That's at least as probable as Marquette's suggestion.

Penny said...

Obama... "Presidential Vampaigner-In-Chief!"

If you smell blood, you gotta be there.

Michael K said...

Interesting. Madison is probably safe but the polls are nonsense this year.

Andy R. said...

Maybe Obama sees Ohio as a lost cause. That's at least as probable as Marquette's suggestion.

Ohio poll: Obama has 9-point lead over Romney
...
In the past week, two other surveys showed the president crossing the 50 percent mark among likely voters in Ohio. A Washington Post poll found Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent among those most likely to turn out, and a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed a 10-point Obama lead among definite voters.

Yeah, at least as probable.

bagoh20 said...

Hey, did that hunger striker dude get out of Jenny Craig yet?

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

"Madison is probably safe"

Probably, but we can't be sure, we know that the librul lamestream media trying to fool us.

BHO could lose Madison. Those polls are lies.

pbAndjFellowRepublican said...

And, it'd be nice for Meadhouse to try and collect rally video that elicits more interesting comments than "look, no minorities" and "look, no attractive people."*

*FTR, at the last BHO rally there was at least one attractive person and there was at least one asian person. It is true that this was still only one person, IIRC there was an attractive Asian gal in the BHO video.

Penny said...

On a more practical note...

Bag-o-bama-bones is hungry.

MadisonMan said...

So few Obama signs this year.

Better leaf color in Madison for a backdrop than in Ohio?

One thing's for sure: It'll be the last warm day here for a while. But he better get out of town before 6 PM, or the weather will turn on him.

Penny said...

Or is he thirsty?

Ron said...

Althouse, he's sent the personal emails...he's seen your headshot on the blog...he's coming to publicly declare his love! #CuckoldMeade2012

"How Ann Won Me"

Penny said...

Chip!

Our President needs some "sugar".

I have a feeling he could care less if it is mixed with water and colored dye..but?

Carnifex said...

@Pb&J

The polls are not lies. The pollsters make random calls to random houses, and report the results. The interpretation of the poll is where the art leaves the science behind. You have to look at the internals to understand a poll.

One of the big toodoo's by conservatives id the over-sampling of D's on almost all the polls. But that can be explained away as more human nature than conspiracy. Who is dramatically more in your face , D's or R's and I's. D's obviously. Who is more likely to be at home to receive the polling call? D's on public assistance or R's and I's trying to earn a living. And finally, who trusts the media more? If someone I don't know calls me and asks if they can ask me some questions, I know I'm not gonna' be effusive in my answering.

So the poll is weighted pro D, not by choice, but chance. The reading of the poll is next, and when you realize that all polls should be issued with the caveat, "at this time, the people we did ask". That doesn't mean that is how the election is going to go. Look at the polling for Florida, Zero is leading by say 4 pts, with and added 10 pts. in weighted advantage. But in the 2008 election, exit polling showed that Zero won with a +3 of D weighting. The 2010 midterms were won by R's with a 3 pt. exit weighting. So the pollster is NOT saying that the D's are going to exit poll at 3 times what they did in a historic turnout election. Far from it. But the people reading and relating the polls, the LSM, is in the tank for Zero, and is trying to supress R turnout. One merely has to look at the FL panhandle vote in 2004. Bush was winning the panhandle 2 to 1, but then the LSM declared Gore the winner and people stopped going to vote.

Don't trust the LSM to interpret the polls for you. Use your own common sense, and you will be a lot calmer about the election.

Do you really believe Zero is going to turn out BIGGER numbers than in 2008? With the ME in flames, gas doubled in price, a stagnant economy, and unemployment pegged at 8 percent(but really higher, due to people dropping off the unemployment rolls). Off course not.

Just remember, that you do still have to vote though. If you think that Mittens has it in the bag so you won't bother, then they have succeeded in supressing you.

Maguro said...

Maybe he wants to check out the giant papier-mache puppets.

Penny said...

Course I only said "but" because I was thinkin' 'bout "BUTT".

MadisonMan said...

He's not coming here for the cheap gasoline, that's for sure.

Carnifex said...

I should add that I'm not nor have I ever been a pollster. Nor has any family member been one. The closest I can recollect is my slimy used car salesman uncle, who later ran for mayor. He was defeated handily in the primary, thank God.( I have no truck with yella' dog democrats, of which, he was one)

For those not familiar with the term. a YDD will vote D even if the candidate was a yella' dog.

bagoh20 said...

The question is: how will the Obamabots react if the polls do turn out to be lies?

Will they be angry at the pollsters for lying, or appreciative that they at least tried to suppress the conservative vote.

No, they will blame them for suppressing the Obama vote. Anything but blame the worst record, worst recovery, worst Presidency since WWII. Anything but admit their very bad decision.

Penny said...

Thinking about butt?

... Michelle, ascending ...

Inga said...

I'll be there with bells on.

clint said...

"Maybe Obama thinks he doesn't have an Ohio problem."

Right... and so he's going to Wisconsin?

Re: polls -- just learned, via Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit... the response rate to polls has dropped to an astounding 9%. Really makes you wonder who the people responding to the polls are, and how they could possibly be a representative sample.

Thomas said...

Obama is more likely to have an Ohio problem than a Wisconsin problem. If he doesn't have either problem, why not go to Missouri, where an Obama win might help McCaskill return to the Senate? Why not go to Indiana, where there's another close Senate race?

bagoh20 said...

The pollsters only call people with Obama phones.

kimsch said...

Obama can postpone a scheduled trip to Columbus but can't postpone a trip to meet with Netanyahu....

Peggy Coffey said...

BarryD
I live in Columbus and you would be hard pressed to find an Obama sign this year. Maybe in Bexley, rich, jewish liberals, but I have not seen an Obama yard sign yet. Have seen a few Romney signs. Columbus is weird, we have a black mayor that is never seen unless he is cutting a ribbon somewhere. Black on black crime is out of control and he is a no show. But the blacks keep electing him. Typical Dim mentality.

Joe Sixpack said...

Penny- thinking about butt

Michelle eclipsing

Martin said...

So, this Franklin would have us believe that Obama is running better in Ohio than in Wisconsin?

Possible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.

The other theories make sense--either Obama's campaign wants to be sure of a big, friendly crowd after teh debate, or he has a WI porblem--or both--Madison being friendly and WI as a whole being in play.

But Franklin's idea just doesn't make pas st6he laugh test.

Martin said...

So, this Franklin would have us believe that Obama is running better in Ohio than in Wisconsin?

Possible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.

The other theories make sense--either Obama's campaign wants to be sure of a big, friendly crowd after teh debate, or he has a WI porblem--or both--Madison being friendly and WI as a whole being in play.

But Franklin's idea just doesn't make pas st6he laugh test.

pm317 said...

He goes where people think he is eye candy.

David said...

@Carnifex: "So the poll is weighted pro D, not by choice, but chance."

Not most polls. Most (though not all) pollsters weight according to a mathematical model chosen by, well, frankly, guess or personal bias. Now, some pollsters' models are based on guesses informed by as much other data as possible, some seemingly notsomuch. Yes, internals reveal a lot, and the raw data, if available, can be informative, but then one applies one's OWN model based on assumptions from personal observations and flat-out guesses about who's likely to turn up at the real polls, and...

It's all guess work. Some of it is better than others. (Scott Rassmussen seems to have been consistently closest over the past few election cycles, but even he's still guessing about who will actually show up to vote.)

edutcher said...

In the past month or so, Zero's campaigned twice in Akron and last week in Cleveland. He should own both places, but we've seen but one (1) O '12 sign and a good many R/R ones, so, if he's going to WI, rather than downstate OH, where he's not that popular, he's probably got a problem in WI.

And, if the problem is in Madison (he may be intent on wooing the fair Ann), he definitely has a WI problem.

Andy R. said...

Maybe Obama sees Ohio as a lost cause. That's at least as probable as Marquette's suggestion.

Ohio poll: Obama has 9-point lead over Romney
...


A mail poll?

Like the one the Pentagon sent out to gauge opposition to the repeal of DADT?

Where 45% of respondents were from the Coast Guard?

Sure.

TWM said...

"I'll be there with bells on."

You better be. It'd be very embarrassing if Barry can't get a big crowd in Madison.

Jay said...

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters shows President Barack Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, a point closer than a week ago and still within the margin of error. Romney now leads by 4 points among independents, up slightly from a week ago.”

paminwi said...

A little tidbit of information from the 2008 campaign. Obama came to Madison during the World Dairy Expo and specifically asked to address the World Dairy Expo and was told "NO THANK YOU!" (The Expo is one of the largest national/international gatherings in the US - representatives from over 80 countries and 60,000+ attendees)

So, remember Obama ended up meeting with kids at LaFollette High School that were practicing their fall sports?

You think he'll ask again to speak?

gerry said...
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gerry said...

This may be a better indicator of Ohio's momentum.

Bryan C said...

"Ohio poll: Obama has 9-point lead over Romney"

Could be, Andy. Polls really don't seem particularly useful this time around, especially in swing states. Given the volatility of the results we've seen, even in well-conducted polls, I wouldn't rely very much on a mail-in survey that ended back on September 19th.

Carnifex said...

@Inga

If you're just going to be wearing bells, I'll be there too , hun. :-)

@bagoh

They'll respond like they did in Fl in 2004. Like little spoiled children, claiming something was "stolen" from them. Only this time, there will be rioting. And the LSM should be held complicit for fostering this sense of "entitlement".(where have I heard that word used in conjunction with this administration before?)

@David

While it's true that the modeling base does influence how the questioned are chosen, if a pollster chooses a model that he "thinks" is beneficial to his ulterior motives, then his modeling is suspect. He should be enough of a professional to know this. And his clients should be pissed at him for stealing their money.(an unconscious bias is assumed by anyone using polling for "scietific" data. Or at least should be)

Questioning people on how the think or feel about a subject is inherently subjective.

Again, use your own common sense when reacting to polls. The people pushing them have an agenda. The pollster for one, wants at the least, a steady clientele. The client, especially in politics, wants a certain response, Their guy in the lead, and if not, why not. These polls are called internals, and are the true polls, and are never, ever, ever, shared with the public. The public polls are paid for by a media that want's liberals to win. So they go to polling agencies that do push polling. Ising weighted questions to ellicit the response they want. "Do you think Gov. Romney still beats his wife?" "Is Zero nice to his kids?"
"who is more likable, Zero, or Mittens?"

Sabinal said...

the only reason I question the polls is because they do not reflect reality.
We are without a doubt worse now than the last day W was in office. Gas has more than doubled.
We have 8-10% unemployment (close to 15% if you add underemployment) and O jumps off to Vegas when an ambassador (of a place where HE was responsible for ousting the dictator)gets killed in a brutal action.
I think the press knows this is not good but their bosses, who might hope to lunch with Obama someday, might be the ones telling them what to write and what to hide. Especially based on the anecdotal evidence I heard from everyone.