August 17, 2012

Tommy Thompson is 11 points ahead of Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race in Wisconsin.

Tommy didn't win Tuesday's GOP primary by much. The old man had to fight off a handsome newcomer — Eric Hovde — and a lot of negative advertising was thrown around. But he's nevertheless way out in front of Baldwin already. This was utterly predictable, as is his ultimate victory over Baldwin in November.

The excitement in Wisconsin will have to be of the presidential political kind. Obama will have to show up here, and I wonder how much he will bother to help the predictable loser Baldwin. Remember, Obama did not stop by Wisconsin to try to help the Democratic challenger to Governor Scott Walker in the recall election last June. I think he didn't want his lack of magic to show and knew Tom Barrett was going to lose. But now Obama faces his last election — or so he says.* The polls showing Baldwin's dreary prospects are and will be much worse than what the public saw about Barrett. (But I believe Obama was looking at internal polls that show Barrett doing far worse than what the public saw before the recall election.)

Now, Obama needs to come to Wisconsin. These 10 electoral votes matter... a lot. They could determine the outcome of the presidential election. He must come to Wisconsin. Will he stand by Baldwin and promote her lost cause? It's a risk! It's not just the problem of getting loser on him, which we know from the recall he has an aversion to. It's that Baldwin is a lefty liberal, whose career has been based in Madison, and Obama needs to win voters from those parts of the state he's avoided in the past. He likes to show up for adoration in Madison and Milwaukee, but he won't win Wisconsin that way, and showing up in Madison/Milwaukee pushing Tammy Baldwin is not the way to talk to the rest of Wisconsin.

The rest of Wisconsin — including many Democrats — are going to vote for Tommy Thompson. Obama must talk to these people. Think about it:

Tommy has coattails!

Mitt Romney might win the presidency riding on Tommy's coattails.

It's all about Wisconsin, baby.
_______________________________

* I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after he leaves the presidency. (But in/from which state? Is he going to go live in Illinois when he's done being President? I doubt it.)

55 comments:

edutcher said...

Anything that makes Choom spend more money that he doesn't have is a good thing and, if it's spent in WI, so much the better.

Ann Althouse said...

The old man had to fight off a handsome newcomer

I seem to recall Ann describing the Romster and Ryan as a couple of "dreamboats" when they campaigned together during the primaries (it stuck in my head because I haven't heard that word in about 50 years).

Ann, you're not one of those women who votes with her, um..., heart, are you?

MisterBuddwing said...

I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after he leaves the presidency.

Why not the U.S. House of Representatives? It was good enough for John Quincy Adams.

AllenS said...

Obama will not show up here.

Wally Kalbacken said...

Tommy T is going to roll it up by at least 15 points.

Matthew Sablan said...

Honestly, I think ex-Presidents can do a lot more good outside of politics. Just look at the charitable works Bush and Clinton have accomplished since leaving office.

TML said...

Maybe Obama can campaign in the Bucky Badger mascot costume and avoid any hard questions that way.

AllenS said...

Obama will send Biden instead. LOL.

AJ Lynch said...

Allens: Great to see you back here on a regular basis!

madAsHell said...

This is Obama's last election.
His tele-prompter is resigning.
His empty suit is going to the thrift store.

AJ Lynch said...

Biden would have to bring Topher Grace who can handle the "Hello Wisconsin" yell like he did in his sitcom, The 70's Show.

dbp said...

A smart thing for Obama to do is to make campain stops in Minnesota and Michigan. Hopefully, for him that is, there will be some helpfull spillover into Wisconsin.

If he sets foot in Wisconsin, whatever he does there will hurt him.

Curious George said...

Obama will not run for office again. He would never run for anything but POTUS (unless God becomes an office). He is a shallow, brittle, narcissist.

The Democrats had o suffer through the 2010 midterm slaughter, and will get more of the same in 2012. They are going to blame someone, and that someone is Barry. They will not do so publicly, but they will cast him as elder statesmen, feed his ego with spots at conventions, new shows, etc. But they will never trust him at the helm.

Beldar said...

Prof. Althouse, of one assumes for a moment that Obama is considering replacements for Biden — you may think that ridiculous, but this is simply a hypothetical — would Russ Feingold help offset Ryan in Wisconsin?

Robert said...

Shouldn't you be asking which country he'll be living in instead of which state?

AllenS said...

AJ, I know it's been a while, but it's AllenS not Allens. :)

I don't think that word verification wants be back though.

Curious George said...

"dbp said...
A smart thing for Obama to do is to make campain stops in Minnesota and Michigan. Hopefully, for him that is, there will be some helpfull spillover into Wisconsin."

LOL seriously? What does visiting a neighboring state have to do with Wisconsin? He either comes here, or doesn't. Close doesn't matter. It actually hurts him. This was a matter of contention in the recall, where he flew over WI going from one fund raiser in IL to another in MN.

He will come to WI, because he has to.


Matthew Sablan said...

It is hard for Obama to fit in time to his schedule to visit Wisc., after all, he has half a dozen or so more states on his agenda than Romney.

... Was that below the belt?

Curious George said...

3% are undecided doesn't bode well for the first open lesbian in the House. I was a Hovde guy, but the silver lining is that WI knows Tommy...how can Baldwin move enough voters. She can't.

Curious George said...

She had better start moving voters soon though or the money is going to dry up like, well never mind. Barry isn't going to give her any of his for sure.

Christopher in MA said...

I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after leaving the Presidency.

That will happen about the same time the Syphilitic Hillbilly shows his commitment to monogamy.

dbp said...

" What does visiting a neighboring state have to do with Wisconsin?"

Eh, his options are not good, but I think if he showed up in Minneapolis, whatever speach he made would be covered by Western Wisconsin TV stations.

Here in Massachusetts, if it wasn't for our proximity to New Hampshire, I doubt we would hear much about national elections. When national figures make appearances in Manchester or Nashua it makes the news in all the local Boston stations.

MadisonMan said...

Tommy T is going to roll it up by at least 15 points.

Doubt it.

What's the over-under on the final difference? That is, at which point would you give even odds? I'd say 10 -- 55-45ish.

Feingold beat Michels by that amount in '04.

dreams said...

I hope Thompson does help Romney-Ryan in Wisconsin.

After Obama is defeated this Nov., He will get big rich by charging high speaking fees and can finally get on to what is really important in life -- playing golf full time. He'll need the R&R because transforming our country to a socialist welfare state has left him burned out.

Curious George said...

"dbp said...
" What does visiting a neighboring state have to do with Wisconsin?"

Eh, his options are not good, but I think if he showed up in Minneapolis, whatever speach he made would be covered by Western Wisconsin TV stations." LOL And all 128 are the viewers would see it? Not only is the premise dumb, but you don't know anything about WI's population and who they vote for. Take a look http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/152346265.html

But again, the premise is dumb. Networks don't carry full coverage of stump speeches. And the ten second clip and mention of the speech will still have Western Wisconsinites as well as the rest of the state saying "why not Wisconsin?".

CrankyProfessor said...

Shouldn't the great constitutional scholar instead seek to follow in Taft's footsteps and become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? Surely President Hillary Clinton would appoint him to that post?

Curious George said...

"MadisonMan said...
Tommy T is going to roll it up by at least 15 points.

Doubt it.

What's the over-under on the final difference? That is, at which point would you give even odds? I'd say 10 -- 55-45ish.

Feingold beat Michels by that amount in '04."

Tammy ain't Feingold (who also had the advantage of being an imcumbant), Michels ain't Tommy (he was a political first timer), this isn't 2004 (with the unpopular Iraq War the issue).

Other than that, you make some good points.

traditionalguy said...

All Thompson has to do is live long enough to reach until election day and swearing in. So its not a sure thing yet.

MadisonMan said...

All Thompson has to do is live long enough to reach until election day and swearing in. So its not a sure thing yet.

I don't want Thompson to die. I will just say that it would make for a very interesting Senatorial Campaign if that happened.

Not sure what the State Law is if he were to pass after being elected but before being sworn in.

Richard Dolan said...

With TT and Paul Ryan on the ballot, what could possibly go wrong for Romney? As Insty would say, don't get cocky, get to work.

Sheridan said...

Where are his roots? Where has he lived? Where are the best golf courses and most compliant residents? Kansas. So Cal. New York. Massachusetts. Illinois. Indonesia? Where could he go where he would be elected to office - any office - without any meaningful opposition? I believe California as folks there would elect a photograph of Obama (no need for the actual guy, he's playing golf!)The photo wouldn't even have to be signed.

Sheridan said...

Oops! I forgot Hawaii! What are the politics in Hawaii?

Methadras said...

I said 7 to 10. 11 was damn close.

Defenseman Emeritus said...

Shouldn't the great constitutional scholar instead seek to follow in Taft's footsteps and become Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?

Chief Justice of the Supreme Court! What great men he would join. John Marshall...Charles Evans Hughes...Warren Burger...mmmmmm, burger.

dbp said...

Curious George, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I would just say, let's see what they do, but really, just because the Obama camp does something doesn't mean it was a good idea. Or necessarily a bad idea either.

It is clear that the whole region--which Obama won last time--is now in play. I suspect you will see a lot more television ads this time than four years ago.

Palladian said...

Where are his roots? Where has he lived? Where are the best golf courses and most compliant residents?

Secretary-General of the United Nations. In the Obama sort of worldview, it's the only higher office than President of the US, and all the office requires is making lofty speeches to rapt Europeans, doling out largess to cronies and facilitating massive corruption.

Oh, and you get to pass resolutions against Israel.

Being a US Supreme Court justice would be far too much work and far too little camera time for Mr Obama.

Beldar said...

@ Sheridan (8/17/12 11:32 AM): Obama never lived in Kansas. That was a deception encouraged by his campaign in 2008. He has as much or more connection to Texas than he does to Kansas, i.e., his maternal grandparents lived there a while during his mother's childhood.

Beldar said...

@ Sheridan: You're far from alone, though. Obama's been in office almost four years, and half the country still doesn't know what places Obama grew up in. Tell me that's not wack.

Christy said...

But in/from which state? Is he going to go live in Illinois when he's done being President? I doubt it.

How much value has his house in Chicago lost, do you figure? What will MO do after being first lady? Speaker on the race baiting circuit? What value will a failed Obama have for his current 1% pals?

Strelnikov said...

Looks like another election will stolen from The People by The Man.

Nichevo said...

Palladian, you disappoint me, don't you know that Obama cannot be Secretary-General of the United Nations ? The SG cannot be a citizen of any of the 5 founding UN states, USA, Russia, China, France, Britain. Not that Obama wouldn't defect in order to get the job...or claim Kenyan citizenship, LOL.

Strelnikov said...

Hay, MadisonMan. Didn't you skip a Senatorial election or two in there? How did Feingold do in those? I bet you picked him winning out.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

First he'll run for President of North Americam then President of the World.

Curious George said...

"dbp said...
Curious George, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I would just say, let's see what they do, but really, just because the Obama camp does something doesn't mean it was a good idea. Or necessarily a bad idea either."

No, you're just wrong. Obama avoided WI like it had the herp during the recalls, and it was noticed. As Althouse says, he needs WI. So he'll be here. But if he stumps for Baldwin, he is going to alienate many swing voters who like and want Tommy. If he ignore's Baldwin he is going to piss off his base which he needs in a big turnout. I say he goes with #2. Lesser of two evils. And doing stu mp speeches nearby, you're original premise, is not a substitute. It only hurts him.

Amexpat said...

Obama has more passion for basketball than politics, so I think he'll go for Commissioner of the NBA after his presidency.

george said...

The only thing I would like to see Obama's commitment to is an asylum.

Unknown said...

@Amexpat
If Obama does does as well for the NBA as he's done for the USA, I'd wager that hockey has a pretty bright future.

MadisonMan said...

Hay, MadisonMan. Didn't you skip a Senatorial election or two in there? How did Feingold do in those? I bet you picked him winning out.

I didn't pick any of Kohl's elections. No one wanted to run against him, really, and his money, so his opponents weren't too strong (He beat Lorge 67 to 30 in '06 and Gillespie 61 to 37 in '00 and Welch 58 to 40 in '94). Feingold lost 52-47 to Johnson, but won 55-44 against Michels, 51-48 against Neumann and 52-46 against Kasten, who really lost as soon as the BKSOD party was formed at the UW).

I don't think I thought Feingold would win. I wasn't too upset when he lost, compared to others in Madison who tore their clothes and beat the breasts. Any time an incumbent loses, the Country wins.

JAL said...

Where Obama is going to live after he's out really is interesting.

He and Michelle only get Secret Service protection for up to 10 years. (Even that has an expioration date.) The kids till they are 16.

If he is Sec General of the UN, it will take him a couple years to make that happen, although with the low opinion many have of him around the world, even that is not a given.

Greenwich? Putnam County? The Riggio mansion in Chappaqua? (Too suburb middle class.)

I think he may end up teaching (what?) at Stanford or maybe even Harvard. U of Chicago for a short transistional gig, maybe. Winters are too harsh.

Stanford.

Though Hillary could make him her Sec of State. That would be a hoot.

Mmmm.

Gabriel Hanna said...

I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after he leaves the presidency.

I'd like to see him get a job, frankly; contributing to the economy of America rather than disposing of taxpayers' money.

I am more than ever convince that government office should be chosen by lot, like jury duty. Worked for the Republic of Venice for about a millenium.

Cedarford said...

He could best serve America by seeing if he can handle a real job in the private sector.

711 manager?

Nichevo said...

Would you eat something he had made?

David R. Graham said...

"The only thing I would like to see Obama's commitment to is an asylum."

Asylum? Not guilty by reason of insanity?

I submit a system of justice would find him guilt of high crimes and misdemeanors and sentence him to the outer wastes at least. Him and his two harpies together.

Curious George said...

Althouse: "I'd like to see him show his commitment to American politics by running for Governor or the Senate after he leaves the presidency"

This has been grating on me for a day. Why?

He was a do-nothing race baiter as a state senator. "Present!"

He was a do-nothing junior U.S. Senator who spent most of his time running for POTUS.

He won both those races by dirty tricks...getting his opponent to drop from the race and basically running opposed.

He has been a disaster as POTUS at every level. So bad that his reelection bid has turned into a race playing smear campaign.

And you want this fucktard to run again? This is idiocy. The world has had enough on Obama. He is a vile disgusting narcissist. He won't go away sadly. But in control of anything? No.

jvermeer51 said...

The messiah as 1 of 435 reps? No way. 1 of 100 senators? No way. Governor? No, that might entail real work. No, the messiah must have a high profile job with little responsibility and vast opportunity to emit shallow liberal propaganda. Sounds like the UN, something in Geneva or and Ivy League college.

Holmes said...

The Obamas will live in a no income tax state.