August 16, 2012

Romney is now up by 1 in Wisconsin, and by 2 in Florida.

According to new Rasmussen polls. In Wisconsin, it's Romney 48%, Obama  47%...
In late July, it was Obama 49%, Romney 46%.  This is the Republican’s largest level of support yet in the Badger State. Prior to this survey, the president has earned 45% to 52% of the vote, while Romney has picked up 41% to 46% of the vote.
In Florida, it's Romney 45%,  Obama 43%.
Last month, it was Romney 46%, Obama 45%...

Retirees are a sizable bloc of voters in Florida, and Democrats are already criticizing Ryan’s Medicare reform proposal in an effort to win those voters. But 48% of the state’s voters fear the president’s health care law more than Ryan’s proposal when it comes to the future of Medicare. Just 41% fear Ryan’s proposal more.

Among seniors, 54% are more fearful of the president’s plan.
Horrible to think that this election turns on who can scare old people more.

ADDED: Proposal for a satirical essay: The 2 parties realize that the election will turn on who can scare old people more. They run scarier and scarier ads, and old people start dying. They're scared to death! Genius ad-makers have reached into the deep core of the elderly brain and hit the mortal terror button. Ironically, so many old people kick off that they no longer determine the outcome of the election. At the last minute, the candidates realize that they need to speak to the young, but they are so deeply mired in scare-the-oldies campaigning that they can't find a way...

53 comments:

the wolf said...

Among seniors, 54% are more fearful of the president’s plan.

Inasmuch as "spending to oblivion" can be called a "plan."

AprilApple said...

Fearing ObamaCare is logical.

Matthew Sablan said...

It would be a plus if we could get them both to at least try scaring old people about truthful parts of the plans, as opposed to made up parts of the plans.

shoutingthomas said...

I'm an old person and I'm not scared.

Most old people that I know are pretty well off and capable of taking care of themselves.

From whence comes the notion that we are all paupers dependent on government care?

I'm not looking to the government to take care of me in my old age. I read recently that the next batch of Social Security recipients will be the first to receive less in payouts than they paid in.

Geoff Matthews said...

My idea for a movie about old people being killed was young people killing them out of anger over the wealth transfers (SS, MC, pension funds, etc.).
I think the science (and math) is much firmer with this.

Nonapod said...

For some reason the whole scaring old people track got me thinking about that SNL commercial about robot insurance.

Bob Ellison said...

SNL covered the Professor's basic theme pretty well with the Old Glory Robot Insurance commercial.

Bob Ellison said...

Nonapod, darn it!

Sloanasaurus said...

Obama has been stuck around 45-48% approval rating for the last year and a half. In past elections, Presidents do not exceed their approval ratings of likely voters at the polls. (GW hit his approval rating in 2004). There really is no way that approval rating is going to go up unless there is some "beneficial event."

Theoretically, it is possible that you could get people who don't approve of Obama to still vote for him, if they feel the other guys is not qualified or worse. This is why Obama's campaign has been so negative.

I think the only chance Obama has for this election is to get people to believe that Ryan/Romney will "end medicare as we know it." But they are stumbling already with that message.


Bob Ellison said...

Also, Christopher Buckley did a good job in Boomsday.

Tom Spaulding said...

What! Political winds are shifting in the Place Where Democracy Died?

Paul Zrimsek said...

Last time the election turned on the shallowness and excitability of the young, so we might as well let the fear and greed of the old have its innings.

traditionalguy said...

The Death Paneled MediCare is not that important to the old folks when compared with their Pensions, their Social Security paid into over a life time and all of their dollar fixed investments being Destroyed in the Great Obama Financial Apocalypse of 2013.

Why else are another Federal Agency per week suddenly ordering millions of rounds of ammunition, riot gear and the Marines starting up three new Civil Riot Suppression Brigades?

bagoh20 said...

It's completely backwards. The older you are, the less you have to fear from either of them. This choice is really about the future. Seniors' lives are not going to change much regardless, but the young will either have a vibrant life like the boomers had or one of malaise and limited opportunities at best. The worst possibilities are very bad indeed, but only for the young - the ones who think they will live forever and still don't vote. Like I said, it's backwards.

Sloanasaurus said...

The problem for Obama and benefit for Ryan/Romney with the medicare issue is that Ryan/Romney have found a way to discuss Medicare in the context of Obamacare. (the fact that Obama took money from medicare to pay for Obamacare). Since so many people dislike Obamacare, it kind of offsets the mediscare fakery put forward by Obama...

dreams said...

The Dems medicare scare tactics won't work this time because the older generation today where young when they first started hearing those scare tactics. Plus, the current older generation today aren't as low information voters as were previous generations. Ryan is well liked by the seniors because seniors too, as Romney-Ryan, want to leave our country a better place for their children and grandchildren.

Original Mike said...

"Horrible to think that this election turns on who can scare old people more."

I'm not sure it's fair to characterize Romney as "scaring" old people by giving them the facts.

Original Mike said...

"Most old people that I know are pretty well off and capable of taking care of themselves.

From whence comes the notion that we are all paupers dependent on government care?"


You'll be singing a different tune when you can't find a doctor.

Kirk Parker said...

shouting,

Not scared about the government failing to be our nanny, no. But scared that the government will drive health-care providers out of business, criminalize what should be ordinary economic activity in the health-care sector, etc? You're damn right I'm worried about that!

Kirk Parker said...

Up by 1 in Wisconsin? That's a good start, but really we have to win by such a big margin that cheating is impossible...

Jay said...

From whence comes the notion that we are all paupers dependent on government care?


From the Democrats.

Everyone 65 and older lives alone in their apartment eating cat food (that Romney wants to take away) according to them.

bgates said...

Horrible to think that this election turns on who can scare old people more

As William F Buckley said about the KGB and the CIA, to say that the Democrats and the Republicans engage in similar practices is the equivalent of saying that the man who pushes an old lady into the path of a hurtling bus is not to be distinguished from the man who pushes an old lady out of the path of a hurtling bus: on the grounds that, after all, in both cases someone is pushing old ladies around

Jay said...

By the way, the vice chair of the DNC blurted out this morning that Medicare doesn't need that $717 billion anyway.

So team O has it covered, wingnuts!

Matthew Sablan said...

Ooh. Another potential person to make a hostage video a la Booker.

Matthew Sablan said...

Speaking of the race, in general, The press is going to stop shielding Obama very, very soon I think. You saw it in how Blitzer took down DWS. It is going to be beautifully tragic.

Tom Spaulding said...

Speaking of the race, in general, The press is going to stop shielding Obama very, very soon I think.

At some point they have to weigh their future access to the new admin vs. covering for the old one. Can't be begging for scoops and leaks if you alienate the incoming admin.

edutcher said...

Don't worry Choom has 90% of the unlikely voters.

Matthew Sablan said...

I think it is that they're just fed up with being treated like dirt. I think a Politico writer (J. Martin?) put out a story about the VP's people trying to taint the pool reports before they went out. It was one thing to expect them to self-censor, and another to step in and try and censor.

Colonel Angus said...

The R&R Team can scare the youth vote by explaining its going to be them that will be carrying the burden of a $15+ trillion debt if Obama is elected again.

Personally I don't think we should be pitting one demographic of Americans over another to win an election but then Democrats wouldn't have a campaign strategy.

Methadras said...

Bullshit. Ryan/Romney are up much higher. These polls are bogus crap.

Balfegor said...

Scaring old people? Pshaw! These politicians are pikers! This is how it's done. And you know both Romney and Obama are vulnerable on this issue.



(Because they're robots).

Will Richardson said...

If the scare ads kill enough of the elderly then that would solve the current Social Security and Medicare fiscal crisis.

The Drill SGT said...

Sloanasaurus said...
The problem for Obama and benefit for Ryan/Romney with the medicare issue is that Ryan/Romney have found a way to discuss Medicare in the context of Obamacare. (the fact that Obama took money from medicare to pay for Obamacare).


Add from Ryan,

My Mom's a Florida senior on Medicare. Our plan improves and secures Medicare for her and others like her.


Worth +5 in Florida

For the Rest of the Nation, expect to see a lot of Erskine Bowles saying:
Sensible, Straightforward, Honest, Serious’

DrSquid said...

@Shouting Thomas:

I've enjoyed your commentary in the past and I'm glad your'e doing well, but you'd have to be doing extremely well to handle your own health care costs in your senior years. I suspect you mean that you don't rely on government ot take care of you for costs of living, and any social security you receive will not be critical to your survival. But one trip inside the hospital for a bypass or a valve or perhaps cancer treatment could wipe out the savings of most individuals.

I don't mention this as a defense of the status quo, but as an indicator that neither party actuaaly addresses the real problem of sustaining medicare i.e. it is simply not sustainable. Old folks (like me) can't get health insurance because of the certainty that we will consume huge amounts of healthcare resources. Have the gov't step in to foot the bill has only caused the total bill to skyrocket.

I love Paul Ryan and admire his courage in taking on this issue vs the Demo's plan to further the elderly populations dependency on the government. But even his plan is doomed to fail, because the premise of unlimited free health care for an aging population, provided by an industry of dynamic innovators who understood a generation ago that they have tapped into the national treasury--this situation re-defines "unsustainability."

My advice to all: try to stay young.

DrSquid said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fen said...

Althouse: Horrible to think that this election turns on who can scare old people more.

False equivalence. The "both sides do it" fallacy. Sad that you would push it Ann, you are better than this.

Jason said...

People - especially independents who dont really associate with either party - gravitate towards politicans who can coherently explain their positions and do it in a positive way.

Some may not agree with Ryan, but his ability to explain his positions, back it up with facts, and actually talk like he knows his shit (unlike the current administration) are going to attract voters.

Original Mike said...

@Fen: Yeah, I'm getting really tired of the "both sides do it" meme as well.

BrianE said...

Seniors (along with everyone else) have reason to be concerned with ACA.

This year, for the first time in 8 years, the doctor said I didn't need a PSA screening during my annual exam.

He did a manual exam, but told me it wasn't reliable and there was no reason to do it.

And I'm entering prime prostrate cancer years. Hmmm. Is this sudden change due to new ACA rules that are coming into effect?

Cost control (which includes not authorizing procedures) doesn't mean quality improves.

HSA's are a valuable tool, since the patient has more of a stake in what procedures are considered. That way the choice of a PSA screening or not is my economic choice, not the governments.

Methadras said...

Fen said...

Althouse: Horrible to think that this election turns on who can scare old people more.

False equivalence. The "both sides do it" fallacy. Sad that you would push it Ann, you are better than this.


Fen, it isn't just false equivalence. It's false moral equivalence. This is the excuses children use when tattle-telling on each other, "well, johnny did it too." or "If he can have one, why can't I?"

Democrats and leftards are masterful at it. The fact that Ann pulls that canard out of her skirt whenever she feels like it only indicates that trying to shed the image of being an aging ex-lefty that has shifted into moderate-hood is hard to do. I mean for God's sake, HER SON IS GAY!!! The horror of it all!! (maudlin weeping can now commence).

AndyN said...

In 2008, 65+ was the only age group that McCain won. I'm sure there was no punitive intent when Obama signed a health care reform law that will be harmful to those 65 and older. I'm equally sure that the knowledge that changes in health care law that will result in fewer surviving voters over the age of 65 will also result in a future net decrease in the number of Republican voters never entered Obama/Reid/Pelosi's decision making process.

David said...

I fear the seniors most of all.

And I am one.

Cedarford said...

I'm thinking it is a good idea for Paul Ryan to introduce his Mom at the Convention or at a major rally in Florida.
Only candidate with a living parent though Romney's Mom lived to 92 and last time I was surprised McCains mom was kicking around.

All she has to say is her dear young Paulie would never, ever mess with seniors like her getting their medicare and SS but the system good for 55 years and older people now must be changed so younger folks can have a retirement....
And two million seniors on the sidelines because they are worried go with Romney-Ryan because a 65+ Mom TRUSTS her son.
And maybe a million and a half women on the sidelines worried because they Feeeeeeeeeel Ryan and Romney will push granny off a cliff start feeeeeeling the other way.

chickelit said...

That's an excellent idea, C4, but this would open her to all kinds of cruel and unnecessary abuse from the left. Plus what if she's a Dem?

Cedarford said...

Chickenlit - No one blasts a Mom for speaking up for their son, unless it is the HIV-ravaged brain of Andrew Sullivan.

So it is clear sailing for Paul Ryan to say that she thinks her little Paul will not only take care of seniors like her, but also their children and grandchildren whose futures are being robbed by Obama.
As a plus, if she has a little primetime pre-intro at the Convention, she could herself be introduced by the 100-year old Roberta McCain..Who apparantly is still active and as good-looking as a 100 year old can be.
Who could say she is glad a much younger woman like Ryan's Mom is carrying on the tradition of speaking up for the real defenders of the elderly, like she did recommending her young John..(76 years old).

wildswan said...

Old people - the only shovel ready project

Our motto - Not dead yet

Michael K said...

" Old folks (like me) can't get health insurance because of the certainty that we will consume huge amounts of healthcare resources. Have the gov't step in to foot the bill has only caused the total bill to skyrocket. "

The cash model will surprise a lot of you (us). The busiest hip replacement surgeon in Newport Beach CA quit Medicare several years ago and does total hips for about $1700. That is about what Medicare actually pays him and he can do without a back office now and cut his expenses way back.

His fee doesn't cover the hospital but Medicare is still an option there. It will not be too long before, assuming Obama is re-elected, the Medicare world will be doctor free. How about a nurse-practitioner doing your total hip ?

Back in the early days of heart valve replacement, the rumor was that an old colored lab tech who worked for Al Starr was the best heart surgeon in the world, although his practice was limited to lab animals.

Judy said...

As a Grandmother, I am way more concerned about their future than mine. Any politician that thinks they can scare me, or any grandparent, will have a rude awakening come November.

SmartAssets said...

Hopefully Wisconsinites are smart enough to know that the proposed entitlement changes won't affect them and/or that we can't continue down the path to bankruptcy.

Autolycus said...

Michael K, you sure you aren't thinking of Vivien Thomas, who was Alfred Blalock's surgical tech? Thomas, although not an MD, did assist with human surgery. He was not restricted entirely to the animal lab.

Not sure how it's relevant anyway, but that's the better-known story of a tech who was likely better at the procedure than his MD counterparts--and at Hopkins with some of the most talented counterparts in the entire world, no less.

AF said...

Dog bites man. Rasmussen has had Romney up by around 3 points the entire election cycle. In light of that, Wisconsin is exactly what you'd expect from Rasmussen and Romney would actually seem to be underperforming in Florida.

To be clear, I'm not saying Rasmussen is necessarily wrong, though that's the way to bet. The point is there's nothing new here. There's no movement toward Romney.

Sam L. said...

Well, Obama is scaring me. Not with his ads, though; it's him.

ken in sc said...

I think the press may stop shielding Obama soon. They stopped shielding Carter around 1980. I was in the Philippines in 1979, so I was really shocked at how the networks were treating Carter when I returned. We did not see that on Armed Forces TV overseas. When they turn, they really turn. Of course, it was easier for them to vilify him because he was a southerner.