June 7, 2012

"The Romney Campaign's 'Route to 270' Doesn't Get to 270."

The Atlantic's Molly Ball asserts.
So I did the math: If Romney flips those six states [Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia] and no others, how many electoral votes would he end up with? Romney starts from a baseline of 179 electoral votes -- McCain actually won 173 electoral votes, but Census-based reapportionment has added electoral votes to red states and subtracted them from blue states. Add to that Colorado's 9 votes, Florida's 29 votes, Iowa's 6 votes, Nevada's 6 votes, Ohio's 18 votes and Virginia's 13 votes, and you get 260. 
So you need 10 more electoral votes? Hmmm.... can we think of a state that has 10 electoral votes? Let me think really hard, because for the last year and a half, I've just been so distracted by....

Wisconsin.

By the way, do we usually shift over to talking in Electoral College terms this early in the election season? It seems to me that June 7th is really early for ruminating over how the challenger to the incumbent gets to 270.

54 comments:

Scott M said...

I saw "Romney" and "270" and thought it was going to be a story about Romney being in St Louis today. 270 is our loop highway, which AA and Meade well know.

sane_voter said...

They are already assuming Indiana and North Carolina are Romney's. There is no way those two don't go to Romney and the others on the list do. That puts him comfortably over 270.

fleetusa said...

Over at Sabato's Crystal Ball they give Romney 206 and B0 247 votes with 85 undecided - toss up. They put WI in the "leans D" category, i.e. included in the 247.

edutcher said...

Throw in PA (coal and Catholics), WV (coal), and just about any state that turned out a Demo governor (and/or state house majority) for a Republican.

And sane's right - NC (First Gay etc) and IN are in the mix, too.

But, yes, Madame, WI is definitely in play.

PS Michael Reagan said CA might even be in play because of the votes in SD and San Jose. That's a stretch, but this is more like 1932 than 1992, so we may see some weird flips.

Scott M said...

PS Michael Reagan said CA might even be in play because of the votes in SD and San Jose. That's a stretch, but this is more like 1932 than 1992, so we may see some weird flips.

That's not a stretch. That's a drawing and quartering.

tim in vermont said...

Voter ID in WI is going to help Romney, for certain.

TosaGuy said...

All Romney has to do is win the states that Bush won in 2004. It is easier to win those states than it is to win a state that last went GOP in 1984.

The best thing WI can do for the national GOP is win the open senate seat and hold the two house seats flipped in 2010.

Obama has to win Wisconsin. Romney does not. If Obama loses Wisconsin, he will lose a bunch of other states that lean blue in presidential elections.

I don't think WI is the best use of Romney's resources.

Matthew Sablan said...

Isn't Obama's favorables down to 48% in California? I doubt it is in play, but Obama will actually have to expend effort there not to look weak.

edutcher said...

You'd be surprised where Zero's down, but the CA number was out last week.

Matthew Sablan said...

I think I saw Obama down in Michigan, but within a percent or two, so probably just statistical noise. But still.

Glenn Howes said...

Doesn't Romney only have to get to 269 as the Republicans will likely have the majority of House seats in the majority of states?

Bertram Wooster said...

I'm astonished that the Republicans don't already have BO and his Clown Show's nuts floating in a jar of formaldehyde. Even considering the dem's death grip on the black vote.

For decades I've watched these two bumbling, amorphous dipshit societies we call political parties pretending to oppose one another and looking as if the contest was to see which one could fumble the ball in their own end zone.

The country is starving for leadership and all they can offer us is Romney and six months of "horse race" and "too close to call". As if it makes the least difference.

Tim said...

Who the hell does not think NC and IN are the first states in the parade of states pulling their heads out of their asses, and flipping from their insane vote in '08 to a rational vote in '12??

AJ Lynch said...

I see a Romney blowout no matter what a probably young, under-informed Molly Ball sees.

X said...

Obama can't get to 270 and he knows it. The strategy is to try and bullshit everyone that there hasn't been a preference cascade. Neck and neck just like Walker/Barrett

Tim said...

Bertram Wooster said...

"I'm astonished that the Republicans don't already have BO and his Clown Show's nuts floating in a jar of formaldehyde. Even considering the dem's death grip on the black vote."

EVERYTHING hinges on the "feel first, think last" independent/swing voter who doesn't know what they think about anything other than what their fellow soccer mommies and newscasters are talking about. This willfully ignorant block of voters holds the balance to power; they are extraordinarily immune to critically thinking about Democrat shibboleths like Social Security, Medicare, affirmative action, arts funding, gay rights, i.e., all the barriers/distractions to meaningful reform necessary to living within our means and stimulating economic growth.

As long as those people vote, we're never going to get the kind of federal government that does what is right, for the right reasons.

cubanbob said...

Five more months of this lousy economy and incompetent governance and its game over for Obama.
The MSM will be calling it a tight race and will quote optimistic exit polls until 10pm EST. The only question will be is how well does the GOP do in the senate and in the state and local elections. This isn't going to be a 2000 election. Probably not 1932 or 1972 but bad enough for the left. Thats a good thing.

edutcher said...

FWIW, here are Zero's positive approval numbers as of last Fall, granted 9 months is a long time, but the economy looked better then.

The states may surprise some:

VA 40
FL 39
NV 42
NC 40
NM 46
IN 42
CO 44
NJ 44
PA 36
OH 41
NY 35
CA 46
CT 48
WV 28
WI 44

X said...

Matthew Sablan, you know who the big winner is if Romney wins Michigan?

Obama.

Pastafarian said...

sane_voter and a host of others beat me to the punch. This Molly Ball is a buffoon.

I've been playing around with 270 to win.com, and right now I've got it 236 Romney, 210 Obama, with the following states up in the air:

VA, PA, OH, MI, WI, IA, CO

VA has a lot of government employees, but I still think they'll go R this year. WI might flip for the Rs, but let's be conservative and put them in the D column. IA, I think, will go R, and CO will remain D.

So that leaves us at 255 Romney, 225 Obama; if Romney wins any one of the remaining 3 states (OH, MI, PA), he wins. Obama would have to sweep all 3.

And Romney's dad was governor of Michigan; and in PA, voters now have to show a photo ID. That should reduce the number of dead people voting in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh by about 200,000 people.

If Romney wins a pretty liberal state like WI, then he'll easily carry PA and OH.

The Farmer said...

EVERYTHING hinges on the "feel first, think last" independent/swing voter who doesn't know what they think about anything other than what their fellow soccer mommies and newscasters are talking about. This willfully ignorant block of voters holds the balance to power; they are extraordinarily immune to critically thinking about Democrat shibboleths like Social Security, Medicare, affirmative action, arts funding, gay rights, i.e., all the barriers/distractions to meaningful reform necessary to living within our means and stimulating economic growth.

The only smart voters are the ones who pledge allegiance to the GOP. Noted.

Rich B said...

How long ago were we being told that BHO was unbeatable?

Phil 3:14 said...

flip Arizona?

Curious George said...

"Rich B said...
How long ago were we being told that BHO was unbeatable?"

If you were watching WTMJ Channel 4 Milwaukee Tuesday night during the recall coverage, they're "Democratic Political Genius" declared this.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Isn't Obama's favorables down to 48% in California? I doubt it is in play, but Obama will actually have to expend effort there not to look weak.


I doubt it too. However, California as a whole is not as liberal or 'blue' as people think.

Here is the election map by county for the 2004 presidential race. Note that with the exception of the urban and coastal areas the majority of the counties are Republican. Even in the 'blue' counties like San Diego there is a strong presence of Conservative and Repub voters.

Very conservative in the inland areas and away from the coastal enclaves.

I doubt that Ca would actually go Republican for the Presidential race, but I think it will be much closer than people think because of the disgust among the voters with the economy of the State and the perception that Obama is just making everything worse.

I was surprised and gladdened by the overwhelming repudiation of public unions in the San Jose vote and San Diego too.

edutcher said...

Pasta, with Kasich a now-popular governor and a Republican state house, OH will go for the Romster - only Cleveland and some parts of NE OH will support Zero.

Most of the rest is pretty Conservative and even the Akron/Canton 'burbs (as such) are pretty sparse with the O signs this time.

Curious George said...

"Pastafarian said...

If Romney wins a pretty liberal state like WI..."

Really, has no one been paying attention? Wisconsin is not now and has not been a pretty liberal state.

Original Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Original Mike said...

"So you need 10 more electoral votes? Hmmm.... can we think of a state that has 10 electoral votes?"

Oh, man! I am so going to volunteer for the Wisconsin recount. I want to "be" that bug-eyed guy in Florida who scrutinized every ballot.

t-man said...

This column is ridiculous. In the end, the authori admits that Romney easily passes 270, if you include Indiana, which has been considered in the Republican column for a while.

So sorry, Ms. Ball, the you need the obvious spelled out for you.

Original Mike said...

"Voter ID in WI is going to help Romney, for certain."

Why has everybody been assuming we're going to have voter ID come November?

mik said...

@Dust Bunny Queen

"Here is the election map by county for the 2004 presidential race. Note that with the exception of the urban and coastal areas the majority of the counties are Republican. Even in the 'blue' counties like San Diego there is a strong presence of Conservative and Repub voters.

Very conservative in the inland areas and away from the coastal enclaves."

It just a shame that all those inland counties don't have many people eligible to vote. Plenty of Democrat leaning illegals though.

So all you have to do is populate inland counties with a few reliable GOP voters imported from other states or countries.

About 7 Million will be sufficient to overcome LA and SF.
Look to Poland and Ukraine that have millions of GOP leaning future voters.

mik said...

"Michael Reagan said CA might even be in play because of the votes in SD and San Jose."

Governor Whitman (-14%) and Senator Fiorina (-10%) totally agree.

Original Mike said...

"However, California as a whole is not as liberal or 'blue' as people think."

Sorry, we're still not counting on California to deliver us from bondage.

tim in vermont said...

"n PA, voters now have to show a photo ID"

I did not know that. Add to that Obama's war on Pennsylvania coal, PA could get interesting. In 2000 PA was stolen by the Dems. Specter was mad that the Philly machine didn't get him re-elected after he sold his soul.

Mitch H. said...

Yeah, they're counting Indiana and North Carolina as solid red, which they seem to be this year.

And Tosa; Nevada and Colorado are much more purple than they were in 2000-2004, their status as Red States have suffered from a Hispanic and Californian influx in the last ten years. At this point, I'm willing to bet that Pennsylvania is an easier get than Nevada, likewise for Ohio and Colorado.

Pasta, I can't get my 270towin map to reflect a 210/236 split, unless you're making a really non-intuitive guess about one of the three-vote states, like Montana going Blue or something like that.

Unknown said...

What about Indiana and North Carolina? No one has suggested Obama has a shot to retain Indiana, and the last Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 7 in North Carolina. And that was before Obama "evolved" (or actually, re-re-evolved) and then declared North carolina voters had made "the wrong choice" on same sex marriage. Obama is not going to carry either NC nor Indiana. I'm not sure what she means by "flip" Arizona, since Arizona went for McCain and the latest poll showed Romney leading there. But if you add NC and Indiana to her list Romney would be at 287 and going to the White House. With Rove's 3+2 plan (1 EV in Ne, Va, NC, IN, Fl, Oh) and one additional swing state would put Romney over the top, and she's lconceeding 3: Nv, Co, IA.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Sorry, we're still not counting on California to deliver us from bondage.

No kidding. I would fall over in shock if California went anything but liberal Democrat in the national election.

Third Coast said...

Latest poll has Romney and Obama even up in Michigan. If Obama can't win Michigan where he "saved" the auto industry, he's toast.
http://www.freep.com/article/20120607/NEWS06/120607030/Poll-Barack-Obama-dead-heat-Mitt-Romney-Michigan-popularity-slips

Cedarford said...

Kind of stupid to talk about what a horserace it is now when the nasty summer of Europe and more economic trouble for Americans awaits.

Socialist and Green European nations are going down. Greece for sure, possibly Spain. Voters will see where Obama's socialist policies and wrecking jobs and getting domestic energy in the name of Green!! - would take us.

The bad jobs reports and stock market erosion await. The state elections where unlike Obama borrowing trillions from China....voters have to make Wisconsin-like choices.

The months were Romney will fight and hopefully succeed in defining himself as a "sterling" executive leader of good character and voters not buy the growingly (to me) desperate Team Axelrod "narrative" of a evil fatcat jobs destroyer at war with women, Julia, suffering black folk that look like Obama's son, if he had a son.

Also factor in we have had 4 years of soaring, grandiose Obama speeches that once enthralled so many - that now appear to independents that voted for him as so much hot air.

(One thing Romney really has to wath though, is the insidious nature of the Neocon advisors he has gravitating to him..who want new exciting wars for "The Heroes".. to go in new lands and bleed in to "save the noble Muslim freedom-lovers". )

kcom said...

"Also factor in we have had 4 years of soaring, grandiose Obama speeches..."

Also, factor in the fact that there's a decision on ObamaCare coming. I think that's a game changer no matter what the ruling. And all these theoretical discussions never even seem to acknowledge that elephant in the room, let alone disucss its impact. What will happen to the race if it's upheld? What will happen to the race if it's completely thrown out? Is it even remotely predictable?

Cedarford said...

kcom- I had the decision on Obamacare foremost in my mind of things that will change the election picture considerably this summer - then forgot to put it in my post!!
I put it on an equal to the picture Europe is showing us - what will happen to America next if we too go down the Green Nazi-Socialist path.

But that is for "issues oriented" parts of the electorate.
The main movement will be if Latinos, women, and independents come to believe Romney is: honorable, highly competent, trustworthy and will lead America in a way that benefits them.

Then all the talk about "how close it is now, and projecting out from there and the 2008 electoral map becomes as silly as pudits projecting the 1960, 1968 or 1980 "electoral maps" to predict the 1964, 1972, or 1980 results.

cokaygne said...

Cut to the chase. One thing that WIRecall proved is that voters are up for cutting govt.

Romney has embraced Ryan's budget. Dems have offered NOTHING!

If the GOP makes that the message at all levels of the federal election. They will win, even in states where both sides think they don't have a chance.

Alex said...

We'll see after the conventions, way too early to be obsessing about EC now.

chickelit said...

Matthew Sablan said...
Obama will actually have to expend effort there not to look weak.

And because he will focus on West Hollywood and San Francisco, he will miss connecting with latino swing voters. This is probably why Axelrod harrumphed about Rubio.

dbp said...

I see any decision on Obamacare as a looser for Obama:

If it is upheld, then the only way to get rid of the unpopular law (given the certain veto) is for Obama to not be president.

If it is thrown-out, then Obama can be painted as inept: Constitutional law prof wasted most of his first term on an unconstitutional law.

Unknown said...

North Carolina? What are we? Chopped liver?

Terry Canaan said...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/231445-obama-leads-in-first-post-recall-election-poll-in-wisconsin

DaveO said...

Obviously, people forgot that Indiana and North Carolina went to O last time, as well as one CD in Nebraska. Those should be the easiest ones to flip, even before any of the six states mentioned. Then, flip those six, and Romney will be far past 270.

Greg said...

Please tell me Molly Ball doesn't get paid for writing. I mean, she acknowledged why the road to 270 actually goes to 270 at the end of her article, which obviates the point she tried to make earlier.

rfhirsch said...

Ms Ball missed one more likely vote for Romney: the one Nebraska vote that went to Obama due to their apportioning one Electoral College vote to each Congressional District. And Romney could well get one of the two votes Maine assigns to its Congressional Districts.

Saint Croix said...

The road to 361...

McCain states (180)

+ Florida (29)
+ Pennsylvania (20)
+ Ohio (18)
+ Michigan (16)
+ North Carolina (15)
+ New Jersey (14)
+ Virginia (13)
+ Indiana (11)
+ Massachusetts (11)
+ Wisconsin (10)
+ Colorado (9)
+ Iowa (6)
+ New Mexico (5)
+ New Hampshire (4)

Seeing Red said...

Vodkapundit already started wargaming. CO has put legalizing pot on the ballot. That will draw out the young'uns.

Methadras said...

My Tyco magic 8 ball clearly is smarter that Urkel.