June 12, 2012

How support for Scott Walker grew between 2010 and 2012 — mapped.

Craig Gilbert at the Journal Sentinel displays this map...



... and says:
Walker's biggest gains over 2010 were in northern Wisconsin, in counties stretching from the Minnesota border across the state to Green Bay.

In other words, the governor's victory Tuesday wasn’t just a by-product of turning out his hardcore base in the southeastern Wisconsin suburbs. Those voters did turn out in droves. Ozaukee (73%), Waukesha (72%) and Washington (70%) had the highest turnout rates in the state, measured by the percentage of voting-age adults who went to the polls. Walker’s vote margin in Waukesha was almost as big as Barrett’s in Dane – a terrible sign for a Democrat, since Dane is bigger....

In other words, Democrats ended up dangerously over-reliant on the Milwaukee and Madison vote Tuesday. That vote materialized, but it couldn’t come close to compensating for Barrett’s weakness in much of rural and suburban outstate Wisconsin, especially when the GOP base was also turning out en masse.
I think this suggests something more general about the way Democrats work to build their majorities around the country.

62 comments:

Ross said...

This gives me hope for November 6th.

Rich B said...

In related news, President Obama says that he was too busy to campaign in Wisconsion. I think he has been reading Mencken and applying it to his field of endeavor - "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

dmoelling said...

Ann you are correct. The Democrats have become an Urban machine party. Not just in issues but in style and manners as well. The left wing suburbanites are tolerated as well, but the urban core is the key. That's why all the old Tammany tricks are valued and the old good government fixes to voter fraud are hampered.

bagoh20 said...

I might be looking to buy on the peninsula. My kind of country.

chickelit said...

I noticed something geographically similar after the Kloppenburg election: link

Chuck66 said...

I see angry Katheleen Vinehouts area really flipped for Walker. I wonder if her nasty angry rants and attacks on the Governor (and Catholic schools, and businesses, and on and on and on) turned people away from the Democrats.

chickelit said...

bagoh20 said...
I might be looking to buy on the peninsula. My kind of country.

Perhaps you could buy Washington Island. It's beautiful up there with lots of shipwrecks too.

Sorun said...

But Tammy Baldwin will do fine up there. Hahaha.

CJinPA said...

Well, as for the Big Picture, the left will tell you that this is all nice, but people who "look like" Walker/GOP supporers (wink-wink) are dying off, that demographics dictate that these surges are simply delaying the inevitable.

I think they assume too much, but every election year, the trot it out:

"GOP problem: 'Their voters are white, aging and dying off'"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/21/politics/gop-census-latino/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

Chuck66 said...

I spent some time in St Paul Minnesota. While there, I noticed a couple of things that lead to a very Democrat city:
A) The people there are very relient on the gov’t. – Welfare payments. Gov’t employees. Financially secure urbanists who wanted gov’t funded fun stuff (bike trails, art museums, pools, hockey rinks, theaters, etc) but didn’t want to pay for those things themselves.
B) Business owners who may have been more conservative/libertarian, but realized that you had to become part of the Democrat party machinery and engage in crony capitalism if you wanted to survive in a high tax, high regulation city. I attended meetings for projects and realized that the people there had to become Democrats if they wanted any say in how the city and their businesses were run.
I imagine much of Milwaukee is the same. Maybe some of Madison.

Michael Haz said...

Bago - Buy in the interior, rural portion of the peninsula. The west side is all Chicago-ified, the east side is all Lake Michigan-y prepetually cold.

I continue to believe that the outcome of the election could have been different if the Democrats had fully embraced the passage of the mining bill that would have brought thousands of jobs to northern Wisconsin.

The Democrats and Tom Barrett would have had a big, big positive issue to campaign on in the nothern part of the state, and the private-sector union vote in other parts of the state wouldn't have been as split as it was.

Jay said...

Hey, remember when higher turnout meant Republicans lose elections?

Chuck66 said...

Michael H...agree. That is why Bob Jauch is an idiot. He thought that by siding with Madison-Milwaukee Democrats and killing the mine, that would hurt Walker (due to less job creation).

He must have thought that people of northern Wisconsin are stupid.

chickelit said...

I continue to believe that the outcome of the election could have been different if the Democrats had fully embraced the passage of the mining bill that would have brought thousands of jobs to northern Wisconsin.

That simply would have created too much wealth--anathema to current Party thinking.

Hagar said...

The Democrats have lost "the Solid (white) South" and are working hard to lose the blue-collar union part of the old Roosevelt coalition. It is doubtful they can stay in the majority with what is left "left."

Ann Althouse said...

"But Tammy Baldwin will do fine up there. Hahaha."

That is to say: The Democrats are not even going to seriously attempt to keep the Herb Kohl seat.

No one is running against her. I can't conceive of how she expects to win.

Ann Althouse said...

No one is running against her for the Democratic Party nomination (I mean).

David said...

Keep your Wisconsin peninsulas straight, Bago. Dere's da Upper Pennisula, which is part of Michigan. Dey your Uoopers, und dey's a lot like cheeseheaders. But dey ain't, aina?

Den dere's da Door pennisula, which is da place where da tourists from dat Illnois place go. Dat ain't so cheese heady, really, especially in dose places Ep-ri-am and Fish Crick.

Deys all nice in were ounway but dere's defferinces, ya know.

David said...

Ann Althouse said...
"No one is running against [Baldwin] for the Democratic Party nomination (I mean)."

Which tells you most of what you need to know about Democrats in Wisconsin these days.

chickelit said...

That simply would have created too much wealth--anathema to current Party thinking.

Better to mine pre-existing wealth; damage to the political environment be damned.

bagoh20 said...

I saw a lot of older people at those protests. The aging demographics cut both ways.

The problem that Democrats are gonna face now is that human beings sometimes learn from mistakes and from fixing them.

Michael K said...

" but people who "look like" Walker/GOP supporers (wink-wink) are dying off, that demographics dictate that these surges are simply delaying the inevitable. "

The vote in the Central Valley part of California is showing another dynamic. The third generation Hispanics have turned Republican. The reason is that they were f**ked over by the San Francisco environmentalists who turned off the water to the world's richest agricultural area to save the delta smelt, a non-native 3 inch fish.

The unemployment rate in the east valley is 30%.

Even PBS seems to understand.

MadisonMan said...

Let's not forget the best peninsula: Chequamegon.

Michael K said...

"The Democrats have lost "the Solid (white) South" and are working hard to lose the blue-collar union part of the old Roosevelt coalition. It is doubtful they can stay in the majority with what is left "left."

Jay Cost's book is really important on this topic.

CJinPA said...

"The third generation Hispanics have turned Republican."

That's the part I think Dems are assuming - that immigrants will always vote Dem, always. And, of course, that the borders will always be open, always.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Where's RV? I thought he would still be here, post election, expressing concern for all those soon-to-be disenfranchised public land deer hunters. I would hate to think he was being disingenuous.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Same thing happened with the Gay Marriage vote in North Carolina. They looked at the larger cities, crammed fulll of refugees from the Rust Belt and Northeast Corridor, saw support and thought they had it made. No one had the brains to go out into the small towns and rural areas to see what the natives thought.

chickelit said...

They looked at the larger cities, crammed fulll of refugees from the Rust Belt and Northeast Corridor, saw support and thought they had it made.

The Democrat's War On Rurals.

Oh, the urbanity!

Alex said...

The GOP war on everyone will soon pay dividends!

Methadras said...

Leftards can only operate in large urban areas. For some reason the larger the population the more delusional the leftards that run them. Look at every major city and look at the leftards who run them from San Fransisco, to Seattle, to New York. Look at their policies. All fucked up and out of idea. Why do you think they want to get rid of the electoral college and move to a popular vote?

Calypso Facto said...

Just like I said about those northern counties a month ago.

Political punditry, here I come!

TMink said...

I think it also relates to the perception that working people have no friends in the Democratic party. They spend too much of our money and make it too easy for people to mooch off us. One of my favorite posters from Tea Party events goes "Redistribute my work ethic, not my paycheck."

Then there is the whole "private sector is fine" attitude. I think working Americans have come to the conclusion that the Democrats are not interested in them anymore.

Trey

Alex said...

Why do you think they want to get rid of the electoral college and move to a popular vote?

They can fantasize all they like, but it will never ever happen. All the republican institutions the left hates - the Senate, the electoral college will be with us to the end of time.

bagoh20 said...

Per chickenlit's recommendation, I bought all of Washington island. I got a 5 year adjustable loan, so I gotta make some quick work of it.

I renamed it "Wachutalkinboutwillis Island". I think it sounds Wisconsiny. It's gonna be organized as a libertarian fiefdom. Every Friday is beer and brats, Saturday is margaritas, chips and salsa, and Sunday is a day of rest. All open lands become off leash dog parks.

Each fall we will hold an election to choose who to get rid of. Anyone who gets 100 votes or more will be executed. There are no other laws so, just be nice to your neighbor and you won't get the axe.

The lord of this land will be in Hawaii from October till May.

Carry on.

kcom said...

"Every Friday is beer and brats, Saturday is margaritas, chips and salsa, and Sunday is a day of rest.

Each fall we will hold an election..."


If you want it to be Wisconsiny, shouldn't every Tuesday be an election?

kcom said...

I think they assume too much, but every election year, the trot it out:

"GOP problem: 'Their voters are white, aging and dying off'"


What they fail to take into account is that every year the Democrats' voters are getting older and wiser (and taking on more real responsibility). There's a new crop maturing every year. And skin color's got nothing to do with it.

Also, just as the allergic reaction to Jimmy Carter's imcompetence innoculated the body politic for many years against electing a misguided, left-leaning Democrat so it will be again after the Obama experience. It appears sad but true that every generation has to touch the stove itself to learn what it means to get burned. Book learning just doesn't do it. They won't forget it, though.

Alex said...

Democrats have book smarts, and Republicans have street smarts!

But they're both fucking amazing!

chickelit said...

Each fall we will hold an election to choose who to get rid of.

Let he who is Wisconsin cast the first ballot.

AllieOop said...

We just call it Door County.

MadisonMan said...

I bought all of Washington island

I hope you're still selling grain to the Death's Door Distillery.

bagoh20 said...

Alex, you should reconsider your habit of reading in the street. Pick one.

bagoh20 said...

At half the former price. We have our version of social justice.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

Stupid tourist trick #32893: Drink shots of bitters on Washington island. (Don't forget the beer chaser)

edutcher said...

All those school districts going from millions in the red to thousands in the black were going to have consequences.

And consequences have elections, you know.

Original Mike said...

"Every Friday is beer and brats"

Sheesh. Friday is Fish Fry, bagoh. In Door County, you'll also need to know about Fish Boils.

Clearly, you are in need of an advisor. I am available.

bagoh20 said...

"Clearly, you are in need of an advisor. I am available."

I proclaim you Pope, but you are still vulnerable to the fall election. 100 votes - that's all it takes - be careful.

This is what democracy looks like.

chickelit said...

I hope you're still selling grain to the Death's Door Distillery.

Cool! Is that stuff available in Madison?

Original Mike said...

"I proclaim you Pope"

Does that come with a stipend?

AllieOop said...

Friday fish fries consist of a couple potato pancakes, applesauce, cole slaw, rye bread and butter, and as many batter fried fish you can eat, with tarter sauce and lemon.

And of course a big cold beer, dark rich German is best.

bagoh20 said...

"Does that come with a stipend?

You now only need 99 votes.

Original Mike said...

Yeah, I think Allie would make a peachy adviser for you.

Triangle Man said...

Those look like regional effects. My northern Wisconsin relatives are fed up with the way they perceive their State Income tax dollars flowing exclusively to the Milwaukee and Dane County area. They aren't opposed to State government spending per se, they just thing there should be more State dollars going to the northern counties. If they want to keep the services, short of moving some Departments or offices up there, I don't know how that can be solved.

bagoh20 said...

Allie, your in. That fish fry stuff sounds good, but I thought Germans were bad with food. I'm 100% German and I never liked our family cooking. Wisconsin will learn me to be a gooder German.

AllieOop said...

Well Bagoh, you haven't had any Hungarian German cooking. Some Germans left Germany in the 1700's and travelled up the Danube to settle lands in what would be known as Austria Hungary, after the Turks were defeated by Maria Teresa's troops. She wanted her Germanic subjects to pioneer and settle the lands and keep the Turks from coming back.

Those Germans settled along the banks of the Danube and then kept pressing further eastward. Some of those Germans that remained in the Austria Hungarian lands were known as Donauschwaben, that's me. They were heavily influenced by the Magyars, the Hungarians, in food, dress, some customs, but kept their German language. Paprika is king is Hungarian cooking.

Chicken paprikash, goulash, Hungarian sausgae, lots of pickled peppers and sweet Masnica, or in German Nuss Kuchen, is a ground walnut sweet yeast bread.

Traditional German food is bland, bah.

I won't say how we got to America, yet. I was born on the banks of the Danube, but further north in Austria.

AllieOop said...

Yikes, I hope I didnt thread jack again sorry, or in German, entschuldigung bitte.

bagoh20 said...

Allie that all sounds much better than what we ate in my family.

I just found out this year through Ancestry.com that both sides of my family are German and left Germany in the late 1700s.

The women always cooked a lot of cabbage, fatty meats, and entirely too many vegetables for me. I'm more of a skittles and ice tea kinda German.

AllieOop said...

Don't wear a hoodie.

RonF said...

"The Democrats have become an Urban machine party"

The Democrats have become the party for people who would rather be subjects than citizens, who would trade a little temporary security for liberty.

"He must have thought that people of northern Wisconsin are stupid."

He thought that people would rather sit and scoop up the crumbs that the government lets fall to them than go out and work for a living. He was 46% right.

"GOP problem: 'Their voters are white, aging and dying off'"

And as the younger voters age and start paying taxes a lot of them switch from Dem to GOP. I did, for the most part. Unless they stay in academia or on the government dole.

marylynn said...

Okay i am late to this discussion, but Bagoh you have to travel out of the Door to the "up nort" area. Fishing for perch and bluegills, drinking old fashioneds while snacking on summer sausage and cheese, dinner at the local supper club .....it doesn't get much better

Michael The Magnificent said...

Anyone who gets 100 votes or more will be executed.

Tossed off Deaths Door Bluff.

chuck of NYC said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chuck of NYC said...

My beloved Outagamie County: the Wyoming of Wisconsin.