June 30, 2012

"Deadly storms, intense heat bring misery to millions."

Are you okay?

131 comments:

Andy R. said...

While weather is not climate, the consensus among scientists is that under the man-made climate change model, we should expect to see more summer like this in the United States.

It's a good thing that humans' ability to influence the climate is a hoax thought up by 90% of the world's scientists, because I wouldn't want more and more summers like this.

kentuckyliz said...

I have been wanting to go rowing, but have decided against doing it in three digit temps. Good thing--a woman in S KY went jogging and died.

Baka Photos said...

Here in Phoenix we call this kind of weather "July."

Marica said...

When I saw the Drudge headlines about storms and outages in the DC area, the first thing that popped into my little brains was, "God is pissed." And I'm agnostic.

Paddy O said...

Out here in SoCal, it's entirely lovely. About 90 degrees where I'm at, humidity at 28%, perfectly blue sky.

May and June are often very overcast months, but this has been the least overcast May and June I remember. No gloom at all this June.

This isn't gloating. We've had our fires and heat and such in the past and no doubt will in the future. It's just been pretty mild.

kentuckyliz said...

Reminds me of the Summer of 88--the only summer I ever had a boyfriend and no AC. "Don't touch me!"

Fritz said...

We live 40 miles south of DC. We did fine. When I walked the dog at 11 PM last night it was hot, muggy and very still, but there was lightening flickering in the distance. Within minutes the wind storm hit, with sustained winds of 35 and gusts to 55.

It was a moderately intense thunderstorm too, and we got a badly needed half inch of rain, but the wind was the big story.

Aside from twigs and small branches down we had no damage, and I didn't see any damage to houses in the neighborhood, but there are lots of big limbs down.

We were fortunate and had power this morning. Many don't and likely won't for days.

Oh, and it's hot and muggy still; 90+.

kentuckyliz said...

Maybe in years I have AC, I should pretend I don't, and act bitchy and hard to get...then I'll get a boyfriend.

Mel said...

I dont know what is worse, the heat or the arrival of the Japanese Beetles on my roses.

Scott said...

Here in Rahway, NJ everything is just fine. We have four window air conditioners going. No brownout yet.

Palladian said...

While weather is not climate...

"...I'll proceed to splutter about some unrelated political matter in one of my embarrassing attempts to get a rise out of people."

Andy R. said...

"...I'll proceed to splutter about some unrelated political matter in one of my embarrassing attempts to get a rise out of people."

People thinking that the political issues surrounding global climate change are unrelated to what they will experience in day to day life is part of the problem.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I wouldn't want more and more summers like this.

It is beautiful here 86 and low humidity, although it is building and we may get a thunder bumper or two tomorrow, which is entirely normal. It always cools off quite nicely at night too with a westerly breeze that occurs every evening. Our temps have been below the normal for quite some time this summer and we had a fairly mild winter, even though we could have used some more rain.

I'm sorry for everyone sweltering in the higher than normal heat and the strong storms and hope everyone is safe. BUT....this is not a totally unknown type of weather pattern. It isn't the sky is falling OMG GLOBAL WARMING!!! that the chicken littles like Andy want to claim it is.

You live in an area where there are massive storms, high humidity, tornadoes etc don't be surprised when it happens to you. I live in California where we have earthquakes and from my house I can see at least one very large active volcano and several also giant dormant ones. If it (volcano or earthquake) happens to me I don't expect to be surprised or to have everyone weeping for me.

Weather is not climate.

Palladian said...

People thinking that the political issues surrounding global climate change are unrelated to what they will experience in day to day life is part of the problem.

Funny, you usually mock people for that sort of ludicrous magical thinking.

Palladian said...

"Deadly storms, intense heat bring misery to millions."

Douchebaggery, crooked hat bring misery to hundreds (of blog readers).

bwebster said...

We're in Colorado; just went through our several days of 100+ degree weather with low humidity and high winds -- hence the wildfires that have destroyed 600 or so homes. We're about 40 miles due north of the Waldo Canyon (Colorado Springs) fire and so have watched the smoke plumes and at times have smelled the smoke (even set off our house's smoke alarms in the middle of the night a few nights ago.

Andy R. said...

Funny, you usually mock people for that sort of ludicrous magical thinking.

I'm not sure I understand this. By "magical thinking", do you mean that the scientific consensus around global climate change is like religion?

Or are you getting at something else about the relationship between political issues and day to day life?

Anthony said...

Here in Seattle I don't believe we've hit 75 this year yet. YOU'RE WELCOME.

Shanna said...

Lots of my friends in DC have no power but all seem to be fine.

It is beautiful here 86 and low humidity

Lucky you. It's only 95 right now...it's cooled down significantly. But we had gorgeous 70ish spring weather from February to May, just about, so I can't complain.

cubanbob said...

Andy R. said...
While weather is not climate, the consensus among scientists is that under the man-made climate change model, we should expect to see more summer like this in the United States.

It's a good thing that humans' ability to influence the climate is a hoax thought up by 90% of the world's scientists, because I wouldn't want more and more summers like this.

6/30/12 6:07 PM

Gee I guess what I was taught in school that long before there were humans on the earth in any appreciable number the earth was warmer then magically an ice age occurred. Then by another magical act the earth warmed up and the ice age ended. All before humans consumed fossil fuels. Imagine that. Apparently Andy R had his two working neurons fried by the heat.

Shanna said...

People thinking that the political issues surrounding global climate change are unrelated to what they will experience in day to day life is part of the problem.

People thinking climate change is anything other than
1. inevitable and 2. completely normal is part of the problem.

Andy R. said...

People thinking climate change is anything other than
1. inevitable and 2. completely normal is part of the problem.


Are you agreeing that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the environment will be producing global climate change and warming the earth?

And you don't think this should concern humans? That we might want to try to do something about it?

Palladian said...

I'm not sure I understand this. By "magical thinking", do you mean that the scientific consensus around global climate change is like religion?

No, believing that there's any kind of "scientific consensus" is just stupidity.

I was referring to the silly, quasi-religious idea that personal or political action of any kind has any significant, experimentally demonstrable effect on giant physical systems, like climate.

Shanna said...

Are you agreeing that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the environment will be producing global climate change and warming the earth?

No, I'm agreeing that at various points in earth's history, with or without humans, it has been anywhere from very hot to very cold and somewhere in between! Imagine!

People freaking out about a possible degree or two change are nuts.

cubanbob said...

Palladian said...

Well look on the bright side. Now that Liarcare is the law of the land Andy R can now get a brain transplant and not worry about about being denied due to pre-existing stupidity.

Palladian said...

People who see a storm and think "Climate Change!" are the same as people who see a storm and think "God's Wrath!", only the former are usually far more annoying than the latter.

edutcher said...

We've been hot here, but not that hot. And luckily, the storms missed us.

Like me, I'm sure Ann remembers a few summers of 100 degree temps and 100% humidity when she lived in DE.

PS Hey, KY Liz. Glad to see you're back.

Andy R. said...

No, believing that there's any kind of "scientific consensus" is just stupidity.

There isn't scientific consensus around any issue or just not around climate change?

I was referring to the silly, quasi-religious idea that personal or political action of any kind has any significant, experimentally demonstrable effect on giant physical systems, like climate.

By personal, are you saying that no one human can have an impact, or do you mean that all of humanity together cannot impact the climate?

Paul Zrimsek said...

While weather is not climate, I'm going to completely forget that I've just got done saying weather is not climate, and talk like weather is climate.

Scott said...

We have no idea which survey is being cited, but here is an article about a survey of climate change scientists published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA that is probably being referenced. I hate making idiots look smart; and I hate people who cite statistics without linking to their documentary source. So we have a twofer here.

Read the study. It's not as clean as one might like.

Mike Smith said...

For those interested in the evolution of the storms themselves (rather than global warming) here is a posting with details: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/06/derecho-aftermath.html

Chip Ahoy said...

I just now shot off an email asking 'are you okay?' and I never do that. It was such a strange question to ask and then I open this window and here is that same question and it's like one of those incredible cosmic coincidental lining up things and I go whoa whoa whoa oh or maybe that's just logical.

Big Mike said...

Virginia has been hard-hit. We were without power for about 7 hours, but it's hard to go anywhere because so many stores are still without power, so many lights are out, etc. TV and radio news says there are one million homes in the Washington metro area without power.

Ah, Andy my friend, I don't know how to break it to you but we've had heat waves before in the United States. It has been known to get hot in late June.

caplight45 said...

In my part of Kansas we call this August. It's kinda early for a week of 100+ temps but not unheard of. It was 118 degrees in north central parts of the state yesterday. Here unfortunately the humidity is now creeping up so it feels worse on the scale of misery.

Paddy O: I've been out your way during "June Gloom" several times. Great for strawberries or something isn't it?

But I know I'm not in Hell because that's a dry heat.

Big Mike said...

By "lights" I meant traffic lights, of course.

Andy R. said...

You people realize that climate causes weather, right?

My point was to not say that we should use the weather to predict the climate. People who say that because it's hot today the earth must be getting warmer, are making a mistake. That's not what I said. [Incidentally, when it snows at an odd time and conservatives post mocking statements making fun of Al Gore, they are also being dumb.]

But the climate change models that scientists consider most likely to happen say that we will see more weather like today more often. That is what I was talking about. Global climate change is not some abstract issue with nebulous ephemeral implications. It predicts that, in general, we will have hotter summers that will kill a bunch of people.

Now this particular summer heat might not actually be caused by global climate change. It could just be a freak weather occurrence. And note, in my very first comment, how I didn't say that this weather was being caused by global climate change. What I did say was, under global climate change, we should expect to see more summers like this.

I'm not sure if people understand this and are playing dumb to try to score a cheap rhetorical point or really don't understand the relationship between climate and weather.

Palladian said...

You're the queen of cheap, rhetorical points, Andy.

Andy R. said...

In case people don't want to follow Mike's link:

"Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of [anthropogenic climate change] (ACC) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers."

ed said...

Meh. Water is under a boil before use advisory. Stupid water company had 3 water mains all adjacent to one another and on the same wooden structure. So when said wooden structure collapsed it took down all 3 water mains.

Single point of failure is idiotic.

Oh well. Otherwise; hot, humid, annoying New Yorkers and Long Islanders abounding. Pretty much a normal summer day.

ed said...

Shorter Andy R because: tl;dr

Like minded ideologues reference each other and ignore competing theories.

Indigo Red said...

Perfect weather here in Auburn, northern California - 90°F, clear sky with a 5 mph west wind, and 26% humidity.

Now, if the damned dog upstairs would stop barking...

Palladian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cubanbob said...

The problem with the models is that they can't account for all the variables. Show us a model that can accurately predict the climate of the last hundred years and maybe we will take you seriously. By the way, here is a news flash. Scientist just discovered the Antarctic ice shelves aren't melting.

Palladian said...

For instance, you [Andy] rushed to a post about the effects of specific storms on people in various cities in order to insert some blather about one of the left's pet issues.

Which leads me to a question I have asked before: why did so-called liberals latch onto "climate change" as one of their rhetorical issues? Why are ecological issues in general associated with the political left?

ed said...

"I don't know why people are getting so freaked out about global warming. Just turn up the AC and open the windows. It's bound to get cooler.

You know what your problem is? You over think things and that is why you can't come up with the easy solutions!"
- my aunt.

:)

Paul said...

Ann,

While I and my wife are not survivalist we do have extra water, food, gas, flashlights, small generator, first aid supplies, guns...

Why? Cause the 'government' cannot be depended on. Never could and never will. You are 'it' when the chips are down and you have better have a plan for you are own your own! (Just ask John Farnam.)

It's kind of like what Clint Smith's says... NOBODY CARES, so fix it yourself.

And you would do well to find out who those two men are and learn from them.

The welfare crowd, being so used to government largeness, just sit there waiting for handouts. and either starve or riot.

We won't.

Old Dad said...

Consensus is for suckers, rent seekers, and other whores.

Science is about data.

Ron said...

No....life sucks and I'm in a bad way.

Andy R. said...

Science is about data.

Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand this or are intentionally lying?

Old Dad said...

"Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?"

It obviously does not, else your beloved climate models could hit climate in the ass with a scatter gun.

cubanbob said...

Andy R. said...
Science is about data.

Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand this or are intentionally lying?

6/30/12 7:14 PM

It depends on where your grant money is coming from. Still why is it that 90% of mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and chemist who understand the underlying science and methodologies better than the climate scientists haven't gotten onboard?

Andy R. said...

"Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?"

It obviously does not,


This seems to be a somewhat widespread view among the right. And I'm really curious about how people manage to believe this.

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand climate science?

Or do you think that 90%+ are lying about their work and research?

Or is there some other alternative explanation about how 90%+ of the scientists in the field can believe something that the data obviously does not support?

damikesc said...

Here in lovely SC, its presently 104. It is also 8:30pm. We had heat indexes of the mid 110s the last two days. Uncomfortable.

David R. Graham said...

"Here in Seattle I don't believe we've hit 75 this year yet. YOU'RE WELCOME."

Shadap!, you gloating moron! You want more crowding, higher prices, more strain on the grids, especially electrical? You idiot!

Two or three years ago it was pushing 106F in Seattle and better than that in the Cascade foothills. Libraries and city halls were used as cooling centers. Also malls. You thoughtless meanie!

Old Dad said...

Andy,

This your last chance with me. I don't give a damn about your consensus.
Conclusive data produces and reproduces predictable results.

Your side fails.

As to why some "scientists" whore out their reputations, well some are whores. Many are misrepresented by dumbshits like you who so badly want Gaia to take a crap on the human race.

When your models are remotely predictive, try again.

Andy R. said...

Still why is it that 90% of mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and chemist who understand the underlying science and methodologies better than the climate scientists haven't gotten onboard?

What makes you think they haven't? I did some googling, and couldn't find any survey data, but I did find this article:

"The official position of the American Physical Society (APS) [the world's second largest organization of physicists] supports the theory that man's actions have inexorably led to the warming of the planet, through increased emissions of carbon dioxide."

The interesting thing to me about conservative rejection of science is that they often try to present it as them versus a narrow field of self-interested scientists as opposed to nutjob anti-science conservatives against established consensus views from every applicable field of science.

I know about this in most detail from evolution, where it's usually religious nutjobs painting it as an argument between them and the "evolutionists". In reality, support for evolution comes from bioligists, chemists, physicists, mathematicians, oceanographers, and plenty of other related fields.

The link above seems to demonstrate that the physicists support global climate change. I would be curious to hear if you have some evidence to the contrary, or if you think there are other scientific fields that are challenging global climate change.

Postscript: I did some more goolging, and apparently all the related sciencey organizations are on board. Again, not survey data, but the consensus is clear.

Andy R. said...

As to why some "scientists" whore out their reputations, well some are whores.

Does this mean you think the climate scientists who say that the data supports global climate change are intentionally lying to make money?

Bill said...

Ugh, Andy, quiet. Global warming exists, but it's largely a naturally recurring phenomenon. I suspect humans are speeding it up a bit, but we're not accelerating it way beyond the usual increase--it's part of the Earth's cycle.

Keeping it on topic: Absolute hell in DC last night. I was waiting for a bus when the wind hit--nothing like seeing a bunch of metal tables and chairs going flying past the street and crashing into a few cars. We sought refuge in a McDonald's while we waited for the bus to come. Man, what a mess.

Walking the dog this morning was incredible--I haven't seen that many downed trees in years.

DADvocate said...

When I was pulling out of the parking lot at work in downtown Cincinnati, the winds were just hitting and small limbs were being blown off the trees. Living 60 miles east of Cinci, I raced the storm home.

My small car felt ever buffet of wind. I stopped at Walmart to pick up some odds and ends and ogle the morbidly obese. While inside the storm hit bringing down hail with the winds.

No major damage in our area, but around Cincinnati over 176,000 customers lost power.

As genius Andy point out, we never had bad weather before climate change, except for the 1937 flood, and the Xenia tornado in 1974, and 1913 floods along the Great Miami River and Olentangy River, and the 1924 Sandusky-Lorain, Ohio tornado outbreak and the 1968 Wheelersburg, Ohio tornado outbreak, and ....

lewsar said...

anybody that uses "consensus" in conjunction with "science" does not understand the scientific process. if someone does not understand the scientific process, their fervent exclamations about "90+ percent of climate scientists" is pretty meaningless.

and then there is the statement that "climate causes weather". this is easily the most stupid thing i've read on the internet this week. weather is a measurement of atmospheric state; climate is an averaged record of regional weather over a lengthy period. to get from simple, obvious definitions to the statement "climate causes weather" is laughable.

in general, if one wishes to make authoritative statements on a subject, one first has to have some idea of what the hell is going on. otherwise, one looks like a moron.

andy, here's looking at you kid: you're really ignorant.

in other news, my 87 year old father and my 82 year old mother were chased out of their home by an advancing firestorm in northwest colorado springs. they still aren't able to go home yet. it seems the main issue now is turning the gas on again.

Rusty said...

Andy R. said...
"...I'll proceed to splutter about some unrelated political matter in one of my embarrassing attempts to get a rise out of people."

People thinking that the political issues surrounding global climate change are unrelated to what they will experience in day to day life is part of the problem.



No Andy. You adhering to the faddish wisdom du jur is the problem. I'll speculate that in the circles you move in 'Andy' is synonamous with 'blonde'.

caplight45 said...

David R Graham said:
"Shadap!, you gloating moron! You want more crowding, higher prices, more strain on the grids, especially electrical? You idiot!"

Now David, is that the path to inner peace and reconciliation?

Try, Ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Deb said...

Right now at 8:45 it's 96-99 degrees but the humidity is only 33%. I think it made it to 106 today. The forecast is that temperatures will fall back down to the 90's in the next day or two. It was this hot back in the early 1980s, when I lived in a house with no a/c, so I feel for those who have lost power.

AJ Lynch said...

I was working all day in a 95 degree house [money pit] that I bought as an investment during the real estate boom. So far, I have spent almost $100k on it and will never recoup that when I sell. But you know what, it will be fully remodeled and rented out in 60 days [I have been carrying it for 4 years] and then it will cover the nut for me. And I will live, life is good, I won't go broke on it and it will give me a sense of accomplishment when the total rehab is finally done. But best of all, I have a/c at home and an internet connection to read Althouse! Thanks for asking Professor.

edutcher said...

Andy R. said...

Science is about data.

Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand this or are intentionally lying?


Ever hear of Climategate?

Hatman is trying to fall back on, "The science is settled", the same way Zero would love to argue, "The debate is over", on the issue of ZeroTax isn't a tax.

Deb said...

"In other news, my 87 year old father and my 82 year old mother were chased out of their home by an advancing firestorm in northwest colorado springs"
Good luck to your folks.

rhhardin said...

Ohio is pretty much hot and blacked out. There are too many lines down and too few crew to fix them.

One or two weeks is the outlook.

If you're out for a very local reason, you're really out of luck. They do you last.

We were lucky and only lost DSL, not power.

Erika said...

Earlier this week it was hot but not miserably humid here in south Texas--104 on Tuesday--but it has cooled to the mid nineties for the last couple of days. Today we got a surprise morning of thunderstorms and extremely welcome rain. Less welcome are the mosquitoes. It's supposed to be around 93/94 for the next several days, which is practically a cold front for this time of year. I appreciate the tiny downturn in the cost of air-conditioning my house when this happens.

AJ Lynch said...

Andy, I was going to ignore your attempt to make this thread political but when you mentioned the UN Climate Change panel, I wondered what you'd think if you knew its chairman is a railroad engineer. Here is his Wiki info:

"Rajendra Kumar Pachauri (born 20 August 1940) has served as the chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2002, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007[2][3] during his tenure

Pachauri was born in Nainital, India. He was educated at La Martiniere College in Lucknow[4] and at the Indian Railways Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering in Jamalpur, Bihar. He belongs to the Special Class Railway Apprentices, 1958 Batch, an elite scheme which heralded the beginning of mechanical engineering education in India. [5] He began his career with the Indian Railways at the Diesel Locomotive Works in Varanasi. Pachauri was awarded an MS degree in Industrial Engineering from North Carolina State University, Raleigh, in 1972, as well as a joint Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering and Economics in 1974.[6] He lives in Golf Links, New Delhi.[7] He is a strict vegetarian, partly due to his beliefs as a Hindu, and partly because of the impact of meat-production on the environment.[8]"

Maguro said...

Yawn. Local heat waves always "prove" global warming, but local cold snaps are "just weather". Rinse and repeat as needed to reaffirm your belief in "the scientific consensus".

rhhardin said...

Climate science:

1. You can't solve the Navier Stokes equations. They do atmospheric models by pulling an equation out of their ass.

Such a model is an elaborate curve fitter, though they don't realize it.

Its predictions are worthless, though it can fit the past as nicely as anybody could want.

A humorist would use a climate model to fit the stock market just to show how it works. There are enough knobs in a made-up model to fit any past. Yet it says nothing at all about the future.

2. You can't distinguish a cycle from a trend using data that's short compared to the cycle to be excluded. No measurement is good enough to tell.

So: no model, no data. Other than that, the science is great.

AJ Lynch said...

Palladian:

Climate change is like Social justice is like Income equality is like Politically correct vehicle is like Politically correct sized house & family.

Few if any of these can be precisely defined and so they can't be measured nor achieved. So they become permanent rallying cries for liberals and serve as part of the Dem party platform.

crosspatch said...


While weather is not climate, the consensus among scientists is that under the man-made climate change model, we should expect to see more summer like this in the United States.


I hope you were being sarcastic as if you are serious that would be a very foolish statement.

We are talking about warming of the global average temperature of just a shade over 1 degree C over the past 150 years.

We started recovering in the 1800's from the coldest period in the Holocene (the period of time since the end of the last ice age).

There has been no statistically significant warming (any warming outside of the error bars of measurements) since the late 1990's.

Additionally, atmospheric CO2 response is logarithmic. For each given unit of CO2 you add to the atmosphere (say, ton) it has less impact than the previous unit.

Temperatures vary by more tha 1 C over the course of a day. MOST of that 1C has been in the polar regions.

Since 1998 the temperatures in the lower 48 of the US have declined nearly 1 degree F.

Paco Wové said...

(Golf clap)

Well-trolled, Andy. I bet you waited all day for a thread you could derail like that.

Penny said...

Are YOU ok?

Yeah, I am!

And thanks for asking.

I was the 73rd to comment when I came in, so I'm at least sure that 72 others are OK too!

Penny said...

Well..

Sort of "OK".

Penny said...

Course now I feel obligated to go back and read this thread.

Something tells me that not all 73 of us are going to SOUND so fine.

If I were a betting gal, I could make a TON of money on the odds.

n.n said...

Welcome to planet Earth. Where change is the rule and not the exception. This is neither extreme nor unprecedented.

It's a shame that the cycles are neither predictable nor ordered. The certainty would at least offer some comfort to people who are frightened by natural variance and prevent opportunists from exploiting their vulnerability.

David said...

No misery here north of Green Bay. Hasn't been much misery since the Giants stomped the Packers (again.) That was misery.

lewsar said...

@deb: thanks for your well wishes. they are doing just fine, and as far as anybody knows their house is untouched. a couple of miles away, to the south, whole neighborhoods are ashes drifting on the breeze.

the beetle kill in the colorado forests (up to 70% of the trees in some forests were killed by pine beetles) add a huge fuel load to any fire.

this sort of thing isn't over yet.

Nathan Alexander said...

We're south of DC.

Our electricity just came back on 20 minutes ago, after being out 23 hours.

Our house has some good shade, cool basement.

The biggest problem was finding ice to not lose our refrigerated food.

Costco had power, so we ate lunch there. A library 15 miles away had power, so we spent the afternoon there.

All is well. Hope we don't lose power tonight when the storms hit around 4am.

MadisonMan said...

Local heat waves always "prove" global warming, but local cold snaps are "just weather".

An interesting exercise is to compare the number of heat waves with the number of cold snaps. I'll let you guess which number has been far more prevalent in the past 30 years.

For example, Madison is -- so far -- running 1.6 degrees warmer than the previous warmest year. Of course, the year is only half over. Still, that's an incredible statistic!

If you want to read a nice blog on the derecho, check here. Bonus: It's from the UW!

Henry said...

Baka Photos wrote: Here in a Phoenix we call this kind of weather "July."

The consensus among scientists is that Phoenix doesn't count.

* * *

I once heard a radio talk show host explain how you could derail any talk show on the dial. Just call the show, whatever it is -- sports, relationships, business, politics -- and talk about the weather. And don't just talk about the weather in general; talk about the weather out your window. "Well it's definitely hot here on the East side and I can see some clouds on the horizon." Within a few callers (the ones on hold) some other yokel will call about the weather where she lives. "Here in Northville, the temperature has climbed one degree since noon." Then the show is hosed. "Here in Westerness, on the border of South Street..."

But what if the show is about the weather? Andy's just playing along.

MadisonMan said...

Since 1998 the temperatures in the lower 48 of the US have declined nearly 1 degree F.

This is a nonsense statistic.

1998 was the warmest year on record. So yes, if you compare temperatures now to the warmest year on record, you might see cooling -- although I question whether your statement will be valid at the end of this year, given how the first half has gone. It's as ridiculous as comparing the price of gas now to the price of gas 4 years ago when Bush was President (I've seen that all over facebook today).

Big Mike said...

@Andy, there are so many falsehoods in your 7:23 post I scarcely know where to begin. Are you a liar? Or is it that you listen to liars? Either way, you're a fool.

That seems to be a widespread view on the right.

Perhaps because it's true? The Antropogenic Global Warming (AGW) model made a number of predictions. These predictions have not come true. The position of anyone who is a real has to be unequivocal: the model is broken, and must be rejected. And it has, and even many of the scientists who originally embraced it are backing off -- James Lovelock, once one of the most vociferous, is only the latest to back off.

90% of climate scientists

That the latest lie. In order to say that 90% of the climate scientists support AGW folks like you are forced to exclude real climate scientists, and manage to include folks whose areas are things like "history of science" and other BS topics. You are aware, are you not, that this past year a Nobel laureate in physics quite the APS to register his objection to the APS position that "the science of AGW is settled"? That's a Nobel laureate in physics, where you have to do real science (as opposed to Krugman's Nobel for hating Bush or Obama's Peace Prize for not being Bush). Or is that an "inconvenient truth" that you'd rather not confront?

But here's the kicker. According to this report the US is actually reducing CO2 emissions without cap & trade, major economic dislocations, or any of the other overwrought "fixes" proposed by Democrats.

Maybe conservatives are onto something?

Christy said...

Knoxville had its highest recorded temps ever at 105° F, but its been dry heat - unusual for here. We have to watch out for Mom. She has never sweated and is vulnernable to heat. I stayed inside watching Wimbleton all day and wasn't tempted by the pool. We're supposed to get storms coming in tomorrow night.

While recent reports tell us we use less energy in air conditioning than in heating, peak electric use for many utilities is summer. Keep your eye on the grid.

Maguro said...

This is a nonsense statistic.

1998 was the warmest year on record. So yes, if you compare temperatures now to the warmest year on record, you might see cooling -- although I question whether your statement will be valid at the end of this year, given how the first half has gone. It's as ridiculous as comparing the price of gas now to the price of gas 4 years ago when Bush was President (I've seen that all over facebook today).


Not really, because the climate models that AGW theory is based upon predicted ever-rising temperatures from 1998 onward. So the fact that their model failed is very germane to the wuestion of whether we ought to buy what the climate science community is selling.

Big Mike said...

It's as ridiculous as comparing the price of gas now to the price of gas 4 years ago when Bush was President.

Outside of the fact that you don't much like Bush, what's wrong with that? You have someone in the White House who has basically shut down oil production and now the price of petroleum products has risen significantly. Now I'm a mere mathematician, and by no means an economist, but that seems plausible to me.

MadisonMan said...

The price of gas now is lower than it was 4 years ago, because the comparison now is to the time then when gas prices peaked in the Bush presidency.

I object to cherry-picking comparison dates. The temperature comparison to 1998 and the comparison to when Bush-era gas prices peaked are just that.

Shanna said...

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand this

I think 100% of climate scientists are worried about where their next grant comes from!

Shanna said...

Knoxville had its highest recorded temps ever at 105° F, but its been dry heat - unusual for here.

I noticed last year when it was consistently 107-111 for a week that the humidity dropped considerably (I'm in Arkansas). So it really didn't feel as bad as you might think. It was still really, really hot though.

MadisonMan said...

Here's another blog post on the weather.

MadisonMan said...

Oops.

Here

Penny said...

It's summer, Mad Man.

We got cars to drive, and places to go!

Least when the "oil gods" share their good fortune...as they appear to be doing this year at least.

Penny said...

And for those of you who resent the city folk riding public transit, so sure you should too?

NOW'S your time to rub it in the crack that centers their skinny asses!

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeee! It's Summer!

Better yet, you put that baby in drive!

Penny said...

Wow. Just had a less exuberant moment all of a sudden.

MadisonMan said...

places to go

Yes, I myself am driving up 17 tomorrow on the way back home.

Chip Ahoy said...

I can't believe this but I'm hearing fireworks in the distance in the direction. They're going on and on.

Paddy O that little baby there sure is cute.

Andy R. said...

You are aware, are you not, that this past year a Nobel laureate in physics quite the APS to register his objection to the APS position that "the science of AGW is settled"? That's a Nobel laureate in physics, where you have to do real science (as opposed to Krugman's Nobel for hating Bush or Obama's Peace Prize for not being Bush). Or is that an "inconvenient truth" that you'd rather not confront?

Please refer to my previous comment, at 7:40, and the article I linked to. The article was called: "Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Resigns Over Global Warming".

Is it your position that when a major physics organization puts out a statement in support of the science behind global climate change and one single physicist resigns that we should take that as evidence that global climate change is made up?

TMink said...

My family and I are taking our vacation. We traveled from Tennessee to Louisiana. And we will be 10 degrees cooler down in da bayou!

Trey

Penny said...

Lots in the news about Nora Ephron's death. I wasn't her friend, but so many people were, and they all spoke so lovingly about her, that I paid some attention to what she was leaving behind in her lists of things she would miss and things she wouldn't miss.

Ephron said she was going to most miss Spring and Fall.

Somehow

Summer....................Winter

Just fell off.

Quite like her life.

Alex said...

It seems like only an isolated spot in California and the Pacific Northwest are immune to this heat wave.

NotquiteunBuckley said...

It is too bad so many Americans did so much to power their progeny only for their progeny to disregard Reagan and whimper.

But what am I but a whimperer?

I suppose it's best not to ask.

Gene said...

MadisonMan: It's as ridiculous as comparing the price of gas now to the price of gas 4 years ago when Bush was President.

Why do you say that's not a valid comparison?

Big Mike said...

@Andy, if you were a real scientist you'd understand that the sort of people who rise to the top of a professional society are hardly ever the type of people who do real research.

Short answer to your question at 10:13, yes.

rhhardin said...

The approaching derecho had a very low frequency rumble, not quite parseable as distant thunder.

It did not sound like a freight train! Just a rumble off the low end of human hearing.

Which I gather was a huge front of straight-line wind, heard at a distance of tens of miles.

Wally Kalbacken said...

I'm in South FL and we are laughing at the rest of you poor schlubs. Sure, it's humid here, but rarely above 90 degrees in July and August. We have constantly changing air masses and no concentrations of industry to speak of, so never an ozone alert. At this time of the year the amazing thing here is the lack of diurnal temperature variation. You sometimes have a difference of 6-7 degrees from a daily high to a low.

Hang in there everybody, don't develop a rash!

Big Mike said...

The price of gas now is lower than it was 4 years ago, because the comparison now is to the time then when gas prices peaked in the Bush presidency.

The price of gasoline was ever higher during the 8 years of the Bush presidency than the 3 1/2 year of Obamanomics? Hard to believe.

The temperature comparison to 1998 and the comparison to when Bush-era gas prices peaked are just that.

Not quite. AGW predicted that the global temperatures would continue to climb -- Michael Mann's famous hockey stick. They've leveled off since 1998, perhaps even fallen very, very slightly. This is one of the predictions of AGW that has not come to pass.

Please take a look at Richard Feynman's famous Cargo Cult Science lecture. One of the things Feynman asked the '74 Cal Tech graduating class to do -- one of their responsibilities as real scientists -- is to bend over backwards to figure out why and how they might be wrong.

So why is Michael Mann not a real scientist by Feynman's definition? Because he apparently made no effort to validate his mathematical model. Because anybody could (and somebody did) run uncorrelated data through it and it still showed a hockey stick.

Why are the climate scientists at East Anglia not real scientists by Feynman's defintion? Because they cherry-picked their data, and they hid the cherry-picking by the simple expedient of not releasing it so somebody else could rerun their experiments.

Look, we know as a matter of historical record that about a thousand years ago it was warm enough in the Northern Hemisphere that colonies could survive on Greenland using ordinary medieval farming technology. They didn't survive by fishing; according to papers I've read no one has found fish bones in the midden heaps. How did they survive with ordinary farming if it wasn't substantially warmer than today?

rhhardin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rhhardin said...
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Icepick said...

Sure, I'm fine. Weather-wise at least. It'll be hot and muggy for the next two months. Then it will be hot and muggy during the day but will cool off a little at night for another one to two months. Then it will be winter and it will be warm and kind of muggy to cool and clammy. Then back to hot and muggy during the day but will cool off a little at night for another for a few months, and then hot and muggy again. Such is Florida weather, plus the occassional tropical weather event.

rhhardin said...

try links a third time

Dericho a few miles away.

Wind at its beginning. Video.

checklist: quotes around url's; url's are different.

okay try again.

It would be nice if preview worked.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

We're south of DC.

Our electricity just came back on 20 minutes ago, after being out 23 hours.


Congratulations!!

Not to make light of your situation...but... Try no electricity for 48 hours (or longer)in the winter when the temperatures are below freezing. This can be fairly typical of our area in the winter. At least you can sleep outside now in the summer, pretend you are camping.

I guess the good news for us is that when the power goes out in the winter....at least our freezer goods won't thaw out :-D

We all have our trials to bear. Live with it.....or move.

shirley elizabeth said...

Funny. The map at the link doesn't show AZ temperatures. It is about 9:30 pm and sitting at 105 here in Phoenix valley. The raging thunderstorms come every year (best part). I would say that if it wasn't so normal for every residence to have AC there would likely be many deaths from the heat, and most likely the old and young.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I would say that if it wasn't so normal for every residence to have AC there would likely be many deaths from the heat, and most likely the old and young.

OMG!! How did we ever live and survive before air conditioning. This must explain why the Anzasi faded away. No A/C. Life as we know it is over if we don't have air conditioning. /facepalm

heyboom said...

To paraphrase one of my favorite quotes, weather events aren't much different than they were 100 years ago, it's just that the media coverage is a whole lot better.

Penny said...

"We all have our trials to bear. Live with it.....or move."

No one here will EVER accuse you of being Ursa Minor, DBQ. Funny to even contemplate!

Ha ha

Course, you DO know how the gossip goes.

So!

Seems people want to know if you shit like the rest of us?.

Penny said...

And before you answer, and with all due respect, I gotta go!

Rest assured, I will check in during the day for your "bearish" response.

MadisonMan said...

The approaching derecho had a very low frequency rumble, not quite parseable as distant thunder.

I'm wondering if it was the wind producing the rumble.

The strangest sound I've heard before a storm approached -- I had no idea what it was -- was the rumble of falling hailstones. This was back in April of '06 (I think) when the huge hailstorm hit Madison. There's a forest south of my house, and the hail falling through the trees made a sound I'd never heard before.

HT said...

Baka Photos said...

Here in Phoenix we call this kind of weather "July."
6/30/12 6:10 PM

Phoenix, yes. The city that airconditioning built.



kentuckyliz said...

I have been wanting to go rowing, but have decided against doing it in three digit temps. Good thing--a woman in S KY went jogging and died.
6/30/12 6:10 PM

Clearly she had some kind of pre-existing condition.

kentuckyliz said...

Maybe in years I have AC, I should pretend I don't, and act bitchy and hard to get...then I'll get a boyfriend.
6/30/12 6:12 PM

I'm in DC where very very generally March was the most not pleasant month because it was very hot. I have turned my a/c on four times now. There are ways to get cool without it. We all used to do it, and I come from the deep south. IMHO, air conditioning has killed much of summer's pleasures.

The storm people are calling derecho was bad in DC, though I kind of slept through it. There are just so many trees down, especially the big ones, and especially in Northeast. The mall got hit too, but I have not been down there yet. It was worse than Irene in terms of unexpectedness. And many are without their Internet, fridges and airconditioning. So yeah, it's bad here.

Carnifex said...

It was hot here as well. Set the recored for June. HHmmpphh, imagine that setting a record. When everyone knows temperatures are allwas supposed to be the same for everyday, of every month of every year.

Tell me Andy, the previous record for June here was recorded in 1885.
Did they have AGW for that year too?

So, according to you, we've had a total of 2 degrees(from the previous record) of warming in over 100 years...

I can live with that.

I was talking to an old farmer the other day. He said the increasing heat was from the extra hour of daylight from daylight savings time. It accumulates.

AS for how we are, I've been better. Getting crowded here. Stepdaughter had to move in with us last year, and last month we had to move in a friend whose husband was abusing her. Plus all the cats, dogs, birds, etc. Thinking about renting an apartment just for the animals.

My wife claims to hate kids but she keeps feeding the rugrats from across the street.

So while we're hurting, we're better off than others.

Ugh... gotta' pick corn monday morning. We're doing it at 3 am to avoid the heat. Then set up the truck and sellin' it( don't tell the FDA nazis)

I saw were the Dread Traitor Roberts was leaving town. Rats fleeing a sinking ship.

MadisonMan said...

Setting an all-time record in June is quite unusual. As I said elsewhere (did I?), all-time records usually wait until mid-July or later so the Sun can work its magic for the longest possible time before the long gradual cool-down to blessed relief in Fall.

We just had a very nice morning thunderstorm here on the Bay. I so wish that would happen in Madison. Goodness but it's dry in Dane County.

Conserve Liberty said...

I think 90% of climate science isn't science - it is conjecture mixed with UN IPCC greed, envy and socialist politics.

Show me the data. The raw data.

Oh, wait. you can't. East Anglia lost it and UVa / Michael Mann refused to release it.

So fuck off.

"Do you think the data doesn't support the idea of global climate change?"

It obviously does not,

This seems to be a somewhat widespread view among the right. And I'm really curious about how people manage to believe this.

Do you think that 90%+ of climate scientists don't understand climate science?

Or do you think that 90%+ are lying about their work and research?

Or is there some other alternative explanation about how 90%+ of the scientists in the field can believe something that the data obviously does not support?

JAL said...

We;; yesterday I wasn;t hadly onineas the guys came to cfinsih baling the hay.

I think it went to 96, a bit humid besides. And the baler broke down in the field.

We had already planned on water, gatorade and sweet tea. Surrounded during the day by 60 lbs of ice.

It's Sunday morning and the guy is coming back to fix it. Finally. We hope. (Timing got screwed up.)

We have AC we use when we have to. This is then.

JAL said...

Nice to see you kentuckyliz.

I was thinking about you the other day, Hoping all was well.

Have I missed your posting recently?

Take some cool showers and sit in front of a fan?

Roger Zimmerman said...

And, just to rub it in for AndyR a little more - it is not a "consensus" that supports Darwinian evolution. It is data, mounds and mounds of data, buttressed by careful reasoning and the hypothesis/experimentation/confirmation (or rejection) cycle which has produced an explanatory framework that enables genuine prediction.

While computer programs have been written to model this framework, these are analyzed to ensure that they independently conform to the data-driven theory. It is only then that the models' predictions can be given any credence. The models used for climate science follow the opposite logical ordering: it is claimed that because they produce results which mimic past temperature trends (after tweaking to produce these results), they must represent the underlying physical mechanisms accurately. This is an invalid methodology.

Roger Zimmerman said...

Oh, and I forgot to mention:

The direct answer to AndyR's "Don't you believe the 90% are being sincere, blah, blah, blah" is: it's completely irrelevant what the percentage is and what their motives are: that's not how science operates.

Mr. D said...

Hot here in the Twin Cities, but not unbearably so.

Reading through the thread, I see it's dry in Dane County. Wish we could have sent some of our water your way. We've finally had a dry week here, but the problem in many parts of Minnesota is flooding, especially in and around Duluth.

Fernandinande said...

Our high temp so far this year is about 75 degrees.

Rick Lee said...

Charleston, WV... chaos here. No power... slept in sweltering heat last night. Everybody hoarding gas and food. Just found out my in-law's power came back on... we'll be sleeping there tonight.

ken in sc said...

I'm in SC. Its 100+ here but low humidity. It's not as bad as it sounds. My wife is in Austin Texas and it is in the 80s there and very nice, she says. Austin is supposed to be a lot hotter than here.