May 16, 2012

New Marquette Law School poll has Walker ahead by 6 percentage points (and Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin).

Full report here:
[W]ith three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided....

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents....


Voters split sharply along party lines in their evaluation of six personal traits of the candidates. The poll asked how well the following words or phrases described each candidate: honest, decisive, cares about people like you, fair, inspiring and provides strong leadership. Across the six traits, an average of 76 percent among Democrats said that these traits described Barrett either “extremely well” or “very well.” In contrast, an average of only 22 percent of Republicans said these various traits described Barrett. For Walker, an average of 88 percent among Republicans said these six traits described him well, while only 23 percent of Democrats thought so. Among independents, an average of 47 percent thought that the traits described Barrett well, while for Walker an average of 54 percent thought so. Barrett has a less firmly established image than does Walker, with 8-13 percent unable to say how well the traits described him. For Walker only 2-4 percent were unable to say if a trait applied to him.

Walker’s strongest trait among independents was “decisive,” with 70 percent saying that described him. His weakest trait among independents was “fair,” picked by 49 percent. For Barrett, independents thought “honest” was most descriptive, at 53 percent, while his weakest trait was “inspiring,” picked by 38 percent of independents. Crossing party lines, Barrett got his highest rating among 31 percent of Republicans for “honest,” while 48 percent of Democrats said that Walker was “decisive.”

In the Lt. Governor’s recall neither candidate is as well known as the top of the ticket contenders. Republican incumbent Rebecca Kleefisch has a 25 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating, with 43 percent unable to give an opinion. Democrat Mahlon Mitchell has a 19 percent favorable and 10 percent unfavorable rating, with 71 percent unable to give a rating.

Collective bargaining continues to divide the electorate by single digits. Voters prefer to keep the current collective bargaining law rather than return to what it was prior to last year, by a 50-43 percentage point margin. Restoring collective bargaining is supported by 78 percent of Democrats and opposed by 81 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 53 percent want to keep the current law while 38 percent want to return to the previous law. In the April poll, 49 percent said they favored limiting collective bargaining for most public employees, while 45 percent opposed such limits. In the January poll, using different wording, the public was more evenly split, with 48 percent favoring limiting public employee bargaining over benefits and non-wage issues, while 47 percent were opposed.

Walker’s job approval stands at 50 percent while 46 percent disapprove. In April 47 percent approved while 51 percent disapproved. Views of Walker also divide sharply over ends and means. The poll asked, “Which of the following statements come closest to your opinion of how Scott Walker has done as Governor? ‘I like what he’s done as Governor,’ ‘I like what he’s done but not how he’s done it’ or ‘I don’t like what he’s done as Governor.’” Thirty-seven percent said “I like what he’s done as Governor,” while 38 percent said “I don’t like what he’s done as Governor.” Twenty-two percent said “I like what he’s done but not how he’s done it.”
"Like what he's done" get's 2 versions — so you get to opine on the way he's done the thing you like. It would be funny if the "don't like" option had a choice to like the way he's done it: "I don’t like what he’s done, but I like the way he's done it."

Anyway. Seriously. Walker looks to be in fine shape, and what's more, conservatives seem highly activated and on task. The people of Wisconsin seem to be ripening into conservatives. On the morning of November 2, 2010, I wrote a post titled "Waking up in a red state." It was startling at the time: Walker, both houses of the legislature, Ron Johnson toppling Feingold. Those who didn't believe this could be happening fought hard. Maybe it was a weird and temporary deviation. The protesters chanted that they were what democracy looked like and they mounted their recall in search of the true read of the people of Wisconsin. Now, what?

38 comments:

Meade said...

Interesting data: Walker's approval mirrors Obama's disapproval. Q5, Q6

Robert said...

Would be hilarious if the first tangible evidence of Obama's implosion could be traced to the recall effort in WI.

Imagine the deterioration of the relationship between unions and the Democrat Party if that linkage were to become lore.

Original Mike said...

"Don't get cocky, kid."

Seeing Red said...

Via The Belmont Club:

John Cassidy reports from inside the bubble:


In my neck of artisanal, hormone-free Brooklyn, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, which shows Mitt Scissorhands leading “The First Gay President” by three points, landed with a nasty thud. “I can’t believe he might lose,” my wife said when she spotted the offending numbers on the Web. “People are really willing to vote for Mitt Romney? They hate Obama so much they’d vote for Romney?”

Seeing Red said...

I don't think it'll be a Reagan-like wave, but the woodshed is looming.

AJ Lynch said...

Take all sharp objects away from Garbage Mahal. On 2nd thought, don't.

Original Mike said...

Garage has been missing today. I picture him as the E-Trade baby buying and selling Walker/Barrett shares at Intrade.

Robert said...

I didn't take it far enough.

Imagine they trace Obama's implosion to the recall and, more specifically, to criticism of the recall by a certain Madison-based blogger and her intrepid spouse with his camera and seemingly unlimited amount of spare time.

Holy shit. Build that safe room now, Meade.

Ann Althouse said...

"You mean, "ding dong"?"

Haven't thought of the song "Sister Ray" in years.

Chip S. said...

Is "ding-dong" your pet name for garage mahal?

Or has autofill struck again?

Chip S. said...

Or, I suppose, for Meade.

Alex said...

It's a skewed right-wing poll. No doubt Walker is down 15 points in any honest poll. All the union guys I hang with at the local bar hate Walker.

Curious George said...

"Now, what?"

Click. Bang. Thump.

BarrySanders20 said...

I heard a "Backwards Barrett" radio ad on the way into work today. I am usually immune to any advertising but I listened to this one because it was amusing in that it so lightheatedly mocked Barrett, almost jokingly, as if the entire exercise of the recall was absurd.

Whichever pro-Walker group funded the ad seems confident.

edutcher said...

I keep thinking this idea that there are really that many safe Democrat states is a pipe dream and a lot more are in play than anybody wants to let on.

This tends to reinforce that.

Roger Simon seems to think so, too.

James said...

Does anyone know what's Barrett's motivation for running? He's lost twice before, and he's seen potential candidates like Feingold decline. To me its quite a mystery why he thinks this time would be any different.

Original Mike said...

I'd guess he drank the Kool-Aid, James. You've seen what that Kool-Aid does, right here on Althouse's blog.

Robert said...

Running for governor gets him out of Milwaukee.

Did you really need to ask?

Curious George said...

"James said...
Does anyone know what's Barrett's motivation for running? He's lost twice before, and he's seen potential candidates like Feingold decline. To me its quite a mystery why he thinks this time would be any different."

His last campaign against Walker was lackluster at best...he clearly didn't want to run because he knew he was toast, and had to be persuaded by the Demos. This time I can only believe he either thought there was real opportunity, or more likely saw it as a way to mend fences with the unions, who he has angered in the past. Probably the latter.

BarrySanders20 said...

Barrett thinks he lost because he was not fiesty enough last time.

That's wrong, but it's what he thinks.

So this time, we will see the feisty Barrett who will "fight for you" and grimace and really care and try to get chants going among his supporters.

And he will suffer the same result, only this time, lose by more than 5 points.

Original Mike said...

"So this time, we will see the feisty Barrett who will "fight for you" and grimace and really care and try to get chants going among his supporters."

Barret's primary victory speech was like a poor imitation of Al Gore's "digital brownshirts" speech.

James said...

@Robert. Nothing's keeping him in Milwaukee; he could have just as easily decided not to run again for Mayor earlier this year.

He has a very unassuming personality and I can't see how he could convincinly transform himself when he's been around for the past 8 years and so well known by the public.

Also, Barrett can't point to any achievement other than perhaps to claim he's not John Norquist and there's no Marilyn Figueroa lurking in his background.

David said...

That's a slim lead. One blunder or one believable slime job by the media and it gets very close.

America's Politico said...

Our internal poll show Walker losing by 10%.

We show that Obama defeats Romney by 20% in WI and every-where in the US of A.

We further show that Warren defeats Brown by 10%. We use the best and greatest model that was developed by the best liberal schools in Silicon Valley, CA.

It is o-v-e-r GOP. Game-set-match.

Michael K said...

"That's a slim lead. One blunder or one believable slime job by the media and it gets very close."

The trend is your friend. Works for me.

http://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2012/05/16/is-obama-imploding/

The London bookies still have Obama up but they may be missing the trend.

Johanna Lapp said...

I was kinda hoping that Walker would be recalled, so President Romney would be free to nominate him as the special master in the imminent California bankruptcy.

The powerful sweetness of genuine austerity, tinged with salty, bitter tears.

Fen said...

The poll interviewed 704 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone May 9-12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. There are 600 “likely voters,” those who said they were certain to vote, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1

Gee thanks thats really nice, now

can someone show me a poll with 1,000 Likely Voters and an MOE of 3.5% or less?

Thanks.

Roger J. said...

Alex: "All the union guys I hang with at the local bar hate Walker." The Paulene Kael of our time.

Methadras said...

Considering this is in the state that began the republican party it's only fitting to see the leftards get kicked in the balls for the absolute mockery they've made of themselves and their ideology. They have shafted the taxpayers by colluding with their leftard representatives to give them sweet-heart deals with no one negotiated on the side of taxpayers until now.

Garage and his monkey shit flinging ilk are the problem. They created this mess and guys like Walker are trying to fix it. So let him run around with scissors I say.

Unknown said...

---We further show that Warren defeats Brown by 10%.

Warren beats Brown by 10 war-ponies

NotquiteunBuckley said...

Awful nice blog you got up in here.

It would be a shame, a damn shame, if you lose it to copyright attorneys with time on their side, like Tom Cruise was in The Firm if I recall (in a manner more right than not I hope).

Sure sure, Righthaven might not be around for now, but there are millions to take its place. You might get written permission from 99 newspapers, but the one time you don't, watch out.

Perhaps we ought to start a legal fund for the blog and pay someone to interpret the law for us, as we don't want this awful nice blog to be gone, askew (mental note I must write now or risk forgotteness: askew is not spelled "ascue" but indeed the interwebs tell me that incorrect spelling does define a pornography term) of the will of the people as determined by their representatives.

My guess is for $300,000 - $450,000 we should be able to defend our host proper by buying understanding.

I don't recall, do we buy attorneys, juries, judges, witnesses, or other?

Scootie-Puff said...

Johanna Lapp said:

"
The powerful sweetness of genuine austerity, tinged with salty, bitter tears."

The makings of a fine margarita-like cocktail. I'll drink to that.

Scootie-Puff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MadTownGuy said...

Does the margin of error include out-of-state folks who come to Wisconsin long enough to meet the 28-day residency requirement (registering with a temporary address), vote, then go home? Seems like I've seen a lot of out of state license plates and more than a few of the vehicles have Recall Walker stickers on them.

a psychiatrist who learned from veterans said...

You know that late scene in the movie Sound of Music when the program manager of the musical presentations extends his arm out a bit in response to a Nazi salute and instead touches his extended fingers to his mustache as the bureaucrats move on not requiring his mirroring assent. Just the fact that one is left with all the schmaltzy presentation figuratively doing the same makes the ad endearing.

wldbil said...

This just in....Governor Walker announced on Greta Van Susteren's On The Record Wisconsin had a net gain of twenty seven thousand jobs in the past year....

Walker and my fellow Wisconsinites are going to show the nation once again that history repeats itself......Coolidge, Reagan, and Walker were right....
The path to economic growth is through less taxes, less regulation, and less government period.....

bandmeeting said...

Our internal poll show Walker losing by 10%

That would be the poll taken up,internally,your ass?

kcom said...

Just to be totally pedantic, the Waking up in a red state post was from the morning of November 3, not November 2. The election was on November 2 and the results were available on November 3.

There is never an election on November 1 so no results could be available on November 2 because the election is always scheduled on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. At a minimum, that puts any election no earlier than the 2nd of the month.

Lesson concluded.