May 2, 2012

"Marquette Law School Poll shows Barrett leads Falk in recall primary; Walker and Barrett within single percentage point."

The primary is next Tuesday, and the poll has Tom Barrett ahead of Kathleen Falk 38 percent to 21 percent — a big, but not that big margin.

More interesting is looking ahead to next month:
In a June general election between Barrett and Governor Scott Walker, Barrett leads by one percentage point, 47-46, among all registered voters, while Walker leads by one percentage point, 48-47, among likely voters. Both results are well within the margin of error of the poll. Walker leads former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters and 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.
No one should be complacent. Turnout will matter. Here's the pollster, Charles Franklin talking about the poll:



It should be noted that Walker is the one with the money:
Gov. Scott Walker's campaign announced today he raised more than $13 million during the most recent reporting period pushing his overall haul to fend off a recall attempt at $25 million. 
Walker's campaign said in a release he finished the pre-primary period, which covers through April 23, with $4.8 million in recall and general campaign funds....
Barrett's campaign announced Friday he raised $750,000 in a little more than three weeks after getting into the race March 30. Falk's campaign said she raised $1 million between mid-January and April 23.
After next Tuesday, Walker will spend all that money attempting to crush his opponent. We've seen all the attacks on Scott Walker for the past year, but what we haven't seen is the sudden, intense barrage of negativity against whoever it is that wins the primary.

41 comments:

Petunia said...

If Barrett beats Falk, does that mean the unionistas will go away? Please?

David said...

Barrett is going to beat Falk.

The cw is that this will alienate enough lefties to keep them home and tip the general election to Walker.

Could be, but you have to remember how much they hate Walker and everything he stands for.

Will Falk be a good soldier and campaign hard for Barrett?

Bet on it. There's a reward for her down the road for doing so.

edutcher said...

MOE is about 4.5. Grain of salt, etc.

Blue@9 said...

If Barrett beats Falk, does that mean the unionistas will go away? Please?

Of course not. The puppet may change but the hand remains the same.

MadisonMan said...

I can easily see why Barrett leads Falk. Heck, even Mayor Dave has a Barrett sign in his yard. Who wants to vote for a Union Shill?

I do not think Barrett will beat Walker, but that's just me. What do I know?

Titus said...

I just came back from Bogota and is was fucking fab.

The women are incredible and the city is thriving.

I didn't get held for ransom but that is so 1990's.

Bogota. The new hot destination. Tons of Euro tourists.

Go. You will love it.

We stayed in the G District.

Even better than Wisconsin.

tits.

traditionalguy said...

Is it too late for Falk to claim Native American Status? Just her Female status is not getting her affirmative Democrat action.

David said...
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James Pawlak said...

I am of generally Polish decent, but note that there was an infusion of Tartar and Mongol genetic material into that nation. Until spinal surgery erased it, I had the "oriental spot" at the base of my spine, evidence of some Asian background. This was likely at a 2 to the minus 6th level.

Should I have claimed to be Asian in seeking civil service promotions?

leslyn said...
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Terry Canaan said...

I wouldn't get too excited about all Walker's money. He's already been spending like crazy and it hasn't budged the needle in the polls.

leslyn said...
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Richard Dolan said...

What is Barrett's argument to the voters, since he took advantage of the Walker reforms to deal with his own budget problems in Milwaukee? That plus Walker's $25 mil -- to remind voters that they were right to reject Barrett last time, and he doesn't have much of a program this time -- spells deep trouble for the D team.

marylynn said...

Really Leslyn? The millions of dollars in union money that has poured into this state over the lasst year, the year long non-stop union propaganda, didnt buy a recall???

Petunia said...

Obama's up a bit in the polls, with an approval rating somewhere around 50%. Too bad we can't recall HIM.

leslyn said...
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Patrick said...

I'm curious about the statement "a big, but not that big a margin." There's an awful lot about statistics that I don't know, but that seems like an "enormous" margin. Barrett is polling nearly double. That's huge.

The lady has apparently outlived her usefulness to the Democrats.

Meade said...

Vinehout's and La Follete's support could easily swing to Falk and that would give Falk the edge. It would still leave another, what, 27% undecided to join Falk supporters?

One big problem Walker-hating Dems have with Barrett is that, as mayor of Milwaukee, he apparently enthusiastically used Act 10 tools to get his city's budget back in line. Sacrilege.

Beta Rube said...

If Walker is recalled the message will be clear: Wisconsin is the private domain of government employee unions, and businesses will flee.

More taxes will be levied on a shrinking base of income, and we will become California in short order.

I know small and medium business folk who are waiting for June 6th to make decisions on expansion and investment.

Recalling a man who was elected fair and square, who broke no laws and caused no scandal, this is a disgrace, and if the unions win, the victory will be Pyrrhic, as the tax base required to restore lavish benefits steadily shrinks.

ALH said...

Who is "Kevin Barrett" (tagged)?

ALH said...

I will be voting for Falk next Tuesday, then Walker in June. Hopefully my conspiracy isn't detected by Kevin Barrett.

Chuck66 said...

Walker needs to show what is going on in California and Illinos.

As Altheads know, both states gave their public employees the gravy train, and raised taxes to fund this. Check out both states bond ratings.

ignatzk said...

It feels good to crush a leftist with money.

Seeing Red said...

We saw the crush of negativity when Palin was announced.

Rusty said...

Chuck66 said...
Walker needs to show what is going on in California and Illinos.

As Altheads know, both states gave their public employees the gravy train, and raised taxes to fund this. Check out both states bond ratings.



Cook County is raising property taxea again. I some areas property taxes will be so high home owners will never be able to sell. See Berwin.
In Kane County my property tax payment per month almost equals my mortgage payment.

damikesc said...

Cook County is raising property taxea again. I some areas property taxes will be so high home owners will never be able to sell. See Berwin.

I'd feel bad --- but, you know, this is what the voters there wanted. They have no right to complain about their desires being given to them.

Which is why if Obama wins, I will stop voting or worrying about politics at all. If this country wants to die, fine. I'll get mine and not worry about the consequences any longer.

We definitely are not all in this together.

garage mahal said...

Walker apparently has already spent 24 million, and he's losing ground from the last MU poll. Uh oh!

Going to be close. Is everyone excited???

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Walker apparently has already spent 24 million, and he's losing ground from the last MU poll. Uh oh!

Going to be close. Is everyone excited???"

Not going to be that close. Once Walker is head to head, he will pull away. Barrett's got no message that will resonate, and plenty of baggage. June 6th is going to Christmas and nothing under the tree for the recallers.

So yes, very excited.

Rusty said...

damikesc said...


I'd feel bad --



No don't feel bad , but it is a lesson.
Illinois borrows money to pay pensions. That's like taking out a loan to get a hooker.
The tax base is shrinking and they raised taxes.
Eventually they will have to default on some pension payments.
Pay close attention to the lesson.
In other News.
The machinist union-not really machinist machinists but that's another story- are going to strike Caterpillar at their Joliet Illinois factory. Management will once again take to the shop floor and production will increase. If you're looking for a used RV or boat head down to Joliet.

Ann Althouse said...

"I will be voting for Falk next Tuesday, then Walker in June. Hopefully my conspiracy isn't detected by Kevin Barrett."

LOL.

Thanks for the heads-up on my auto-complete screwup.

Ann Althouse said...

"I'm curious about the statement "a big, but not that big a margin." There's an awful lot about statistics that I don't know, but that seems like an "enormous" margin. Barrett is polling nearly double. That's huge."

He only has 38%. Remember all the talk about Romney not being able to break 50% against the nonRomneys.

The not-Barrett people are 62%, and turnout is everything. The Republican side of the state is strong for Walker.

Do the math!

Rusty said...

leslyn said...
Really, marylynn. Put your numbers up in comparison and give us a cite. Althouse did.


marylynn won't , but I will. Here ya go.






From media tracker


EXCLUSIVE: Big Labor Pours $7 Mil. Into Recall, Likely to Exceed 2011 Spending

By: Brian Sikma

Just released campaign finance documents show Big Labor both inside and outside of Wisconsin pouring just over $7 million into the effort to recall Governor Scott Walker and four GOP state senators. In the 2011 recall campaign combined total spending by unions and progressive groups reached $14.7 million, or just over twice what labor unions alone have managed to raise or spend in what is the opening round of the effort to knock out Governor Walker less than two years into his term.

roesch/voltaire said...

Of little note is the sum of money Walker has ready spent on lawyers to "cooperate" with the John Doe investigation. As Wisconsinites get a closer look at he folks who surround Walker and the huge amounts of outside money pouring into his campaign, they might like him just a little less, just enough less to get us back to our forward state tradition with Barrett as governor.

leslyn said...
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leslyn said...
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leslyn said...
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leslyn said...
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leslyn said...
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leslyn said...
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