October 26, 2011

A Democratic Party-affiliated poll reveals that it's unlikely any Democrat will succeed in a recall election against Scott Walker.

Public Policy Polling reports:
Walker's still not popular- 47% of voters approve of him, compared to 51% who disapprove. But those numbers represent continuing improvement over the course of the year. He hit his lowest point in PPP's polling in May at 43/54. By August he'd improved to 45/53, and now that improvement has continued over the last couple months. Republicans continue to stand pretty uniformly behind Walker, and Democrats pretty uniformly against him. Where the shift is occurring is with independents. In May only 40% approved of him with 56% disapproving. Now those numbers are almost flipped with 52% approving to 44% who disapprove.

Walker's not out of the woods by any means. 48% of voters in the state want to recall him, while 49% are opposed to such a move. But it's not clear if Democrats will have a candidate strong enough to unseat Walker. The only one who beats him in a hypothetical recall is Russ Feingold. But Feingold's already said he's probably not going to run, and his margin over Walker is just 3 points at 49-46. In May Feingold led Walker 52-42 and in August Feingold had a 52-45 advantage. So even with their strongest possible candidate Democrats' prospects against Walker are slipping.
But Walker opponents will still sign that recall petition, I'll bet. It will set up an opportunity for the normally low-profile Walker to step into the light and defend himself. I predict he'll become quite a bit more popular as people pay direct attention to his policies (as opposed to picking up the demonization message from his antagonists).

30 comments:

ALH said...

"I predict he'll become quite a bit more popular as people pay direct attention to his policies (as opposed to picking up the demonization message from his antagonists)."


"Antagonists", i.e. the press in Wisconsin. The local rag won't come out and admit it, but the school district is saving money and teachers have kept their jobs because of Walker. He will be tough to beat when the sky doesn't fall and people start to see benefits.
You are correct.

MarkG said...

I met a public school parent who absolutely hated Walker last spring. She liked her kid's school and was worried about its future.

Now the next school year is here and it's not so bad, is it? Maybe just a lot of fear-mongering to make the protests seem meaningful.

Fuck public sector unions.

America's Politico said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Roux said...

Why is anyone paying attention to PPP polling? It's a bogus polling organization. Sheesh...

m stone said...

One too many shots IMHO.

MarkG said...

I read some of the comments over at TPM. Here are some of the current complaints about Walker:

• His smirk.
• His beady eyes.
• His voters include "'fraidy cat white folk around Delafield, the soul-less inhabitants of sprawlville"

Well, that's a good start.

Gerad Hibbs said...

So, you are saying that the Progressives will get results the opposite of their stated intentions? Who has ever heard of such a thing?

Issob Morocco said...

Polls that matter occur in November, specifically on the first Tuesday of an election year.

Walker will pass this hurdle and win a second term by 8 to 10 points in 2014.

On Wisconsin!!

rocketeer67 said...

Reactionaries, Garage Mahal's Trash-Talking Hardest Hit.

ALH said...

OK, nothing to comment about but had to make use of my wv that is currently posted:

wv: wifetab

sorepaw said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Petunia said...

The recall types had a meeting here in Madison last night, featuring their top three potential candidates, former Congressperson David Obey, former Dane County executive and several-time statewide-office loser Kathleen Falk, and fleebagger Jon Erpenbach.

If Feingold were running, I might be kind of worried. But he's afraid he'll lose, so he won't run.

edutcher said...

Since Ann has already posted an item of how a school district went from millions in the red to hundreds of thousands in the black, that kind of statistic will be hard to beat.

PS OT, but related: Very good discussion on Hannity about OH Issue 2 including a good presentation by Kasich.

This is the kind of exposure it needs.

garage mahal said...

So Feingold not running saves Walker. Thanks Russ!

Love the "low profile" Walker bit. Walker didn't campaign for one Republican in the recalls. I wonder why not?

Is the first PPP Poll posted Althouse? I thought you relied on Rasmussen.

crosspatch said...

I say fine, let the Democrats waste even more money. Every dollar spent now is a dollar they can't spend in November 2012.

MarkG said...

The whole recall Walker thing is getting dull. Not much action here. I think it'll all fade away to nothing.

How disappointing.

Sue D'Nhym said...

I bet this thread will not get 400 comments.

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...

Walker didn't campaign for one Republican in the recalls. I wonder why not?"

Ah, the standard garage mahal public opinion poll.

It has a margin of error of "certain"

Chuck66 said...

There are a lot of people are there who didn't vote for Governor Walker in November 2010, and won't vote for him in November 2014, but don't want the recall.

Only the hard core haters want to subject Wisconsin (and eastern Minnesota) to $25,000,000 worth of negative political commercials next spring.

ignatzk said...

How 'bout billboards with a really big picture of Jim Doyle's head with the words "Miss Me Yet?"

Don't Tread 2012 said...

Good.

Dan from Madison said...

Curious George: It has a margin of error of "certain" - you win one internet for that one.

AllenS said...

Ok, so let's say that they get enough votes for a recall election, then what? Will Walker face one Democrat, or will three or four Democrats be on the ballot? How will the Democrats sort this out. What a waste of time and taxpayer money.

Curious George said...

"AllenS said...
Ok, so let's say that they get enough votes for a recall election, then what? Will Walker face one Democrat, or will three or four Democrats be on the ballot? How will the Democrats sort this out. What a waste of time and taxpayer money."

There will be a primary if there are multiple candidates. Winner of that gets to lose to Walker.

vet66 said...

I read that Wisconsin is now recognizing most other states concealed carry permits, including my state, Arizona. Talk about a razor thin margin of sanity in that state if Walker's approval rating as stated is correct.

Let us hope the silent majority in Wisconsin continues to support the Constitution as written as opposed to the progressives who wish to dispense with it through the judiciary.

Speaking of judiciary, things have sure been quiet in Wisconsin since the theatrics of the so-called choking incident put paid to those drama queens. Progressives sure know how to shoot themselves in their collective feet.

Christopher in MA said...

Keep the dream alive, garage. It'll just make that heaping plateful of crow you're going to have to choke down so much more bitter.

Calypso Facto said...

And those poll numbers are best case: A left-leaning pollster polling Walking against generic or hypothetical opponents. Wait until there's an actual candidate to negatively associate a history with.

The media loves to pump up the recall attempt because guess who stands to benefit the most? The media. Why wait two more years for another opportunity at $50 million in political ads when you can generate that extra demand today?

Most people I talk to outside of Madison, whether for or against Walker policies, don't like the idea of a state money-wasting recall effort.

MadisonMan said...

I'm sure all the media in Wisconsin wants a recall -- talk about a certain revenue source!

I'll go out and say it: A Democrat who has already held political office will not beat Walker. I do think Walker is vulnerable on things like jobs (That laser-like focus on jobs is unable to penetrate the fog surrounding socially-conservative legislators). And the John Doe investigation is certainly a wild card.

Kit said...

Are you thinking of Epic's Judy Faulkner? I'd be on board for that.

Calypso Facto said...

Are you thinking of Epic's Judy Faulkner?

A top one percent-er to lead the revolution!