December 23, 2010

Jonah Goldberg identifies "24 people who are beneficiaries of nontrivial presidential buzz."

"Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, John Bolton, Bob McDonnell, Jim DeMint, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Judd Gregg, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry."

He then whittles it down to:
Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Daniels. Romney is the organizational front-runner; Daniels is the first pick of wonks and D. C. eggheads; Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters; Gingrich will dominate the debates; and Pawlenty (vying with Daniels) is the least disliked.

75 comments:

edutcher said...

Of the 5, I don't think any will get the nod.

Not too sure about the other 19, either. Ryan or Perry, maybe.

If, of course, they run.

Quayle said...

And some people will watch the debates on a TV invented by a Mormon, and listen to it on a stereo invented by a Mormon, and still decide that they couldn't possibly vote for Romney because Mormons are too strange and foreign to America.

Go figure.

Kirby Olson said...

A reliable sense of humor will be the weapon needed against the one. Huckabee is the only one I see who has that.

The Big O has the media on his side, so you have to have one-line zingers that eat up Bytes, and remain memorable in the debates.

That's how Bush 2 beat Gore and Kerry, and how Reagan tripped his opponents.

Palin and Romney haven't got it. Of this whole batch, only Huckabee has it. Plus, Huckabee will take the whole south just on account of his name and faith.

Gahrie said...

I don't like Romney because he's a liberal, not because he's a Mormon.

Drew said...

What does that even mean? "Nontrivial presidential buzz"?

America's Politico said...

I know many were completely taken by the fast-moving lame-duck session. What a President! What accomplishments!

Wait till 2011. Our teleconference this morning had a list of 10-items per day next year. We are hoping for the GOP to be completely overwhelmed. They will roll over. The left is ours. The middle is ours. Soon the right will be ours.

We will win 2012 in more dramatic fashion than we did in 2008.

Bob_R said...

Goldberg expanded a bit in a Corner post. He basically said that this is a description of the current trajectory and a straight line projection of the current trajectory is almost certainly wrong. Taken in that spirit I think it's a pretty good article. Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Paul are the only ones we have seen in reasonably long national campaigns. One or two of the others (or someone not on the list) is going to surprise us.

James said...

I can't see Paul Ryan giving up chairmanship of the Budget Committee to run for president.

David said...

Twenty three reasons why Obama looks good for re-election. And Chris Christie.

David said...

Also 22 reasons why Palin has a good shot at the Republican nomination.

New "Hussein" Ham said...

Romney = Obamacare. Pfft.

Mitch Daniels = Short people got ... no reason to live.

Pawlenty and Palin, Baby!

Let's P on the Democrats!

P on their graves!

New "Hussein" Ham said...

"I don't like Romney because he's a liberal, not because he's a Mormon.

Mitt Romney is a paler Obama with a crappier jump shot whose wife knows enough to keep her fucking trap shut.

His only redeeming quality is that he can actually produce a birth certificate shows he's born here.

Other than that ... two peas in a pod.

New "Hussein" Ham said...

"and still decide that they couldn't possibly vote for Romney because Mormons are too strange and foreign to America."

That's right.

And here's why. Although Mormons are kick ass folk when you need some primo entertainment center gadgetry ... they're fucking wackjobs in practically every other area of life.

For example: Mormons believe that people should be forced to purchase health insurance.

When he was governor of the state of Massachuetts, Barack Obama forced everyone to purchase health insurance from his campaign donors.

No, wait.

That wasn't Barack "Hussein" Obama.

That was Mitt "Hussein" Romney.

I don't care if they wear funny underwear and have 12 wives.

When they start with the indentured servitude, me and the Mormons part company.

Mitt Romney will never be president.

c3 said...

AP;
We will win 2012 in more dramatic fashion than we did in 2008.

I think that was a typo, I think you meant:

We will win 2012 in more dramatic fashion than we did in 2010.

And you could learn a thing or two about trolling from New Ham; he does it well.

knox said...

I could live with Daniels or Pawlenty. Herman Cain, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are my dream candidates, I guess, though I would prefer Ryan to stay where he is. He's got control of the money now, which is what matters.

Penny said...

If reality TV shows like Survivor and The Apprentice have become little microcosms of life, those with a vote or a voice threw their weight behind the person who pissed them off the least.

We'll have to wait and see if this is an emerging pattern in our collective thought process, or merely a fluke.

On Goldberg's list, that would give Pawlenty and Daniels the edge, since they are disliked the least.

Cedarford said...

Taken in that spirit I think it's a pretty good article. Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Paul are the only ones we have seen in reasonably long national campaigns.

============
Right Wing Goddess Palin was announced Sept 2nd, "went rogue" by Oct 15th.

I know under two months seems like a long time for people that say "Our Sarah had plenty of time as Governor to be a seasoned Presidential candidate in 2012."
"And she had her long national campaign, just like the other candidates that actually did the Primaries thing..."

==============
Campaigning is still a long way away. Things could change to make one of those most mentioned more palatable over others, or create an opening for someone in the 2nd tier.

I don't think we will repeat the idea of thinking someone like Obama, with limited experience in high office, is acceptable.

MathMom said...

Pawlenty? Under Pawlenty, the MSP airport has gotten footbaths for Muslims and taxi drivers who won't carry dogs or people with alcohol.

Meh. I want someone who will fight Sharia law. It ain't beanbag.

Quayle said...

"Although Mormons are kick ass folk when you need some primo entertainment center gadgetry...."

Entertainment center gadgetry?

Come on! That's like..what?..the remote control or the dimmer in the home theater room.

Entertainment center core components! That's what I'm talking about.

The Crack Emcee said...

Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters

And that's all that matters,...

Jon said...

Here's the current ranking on Intrade, which I think is about right

Romney $21
Palin $19
Thune $9
Daniels $7
Huckabee $6.7
Pawlenty $6.1
Gingrich $4

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Daniels!!

God help us.

Harry said...

Quayle said...And some people will watch the debates on a TV invented by a Mormon, and listen to it on a stereo invented by a Mormon. . .

And don't forget, go deer hunting with their Winchester 1894, carry a Colt .45 for self defense, and fight wars with a Browning M2 .50 caliber, all invented by that Mormon John Moses Browning (1855–1926), the greatest firearms designer of all time.

WV "deman": "John Moses Browning; he deman!"

Bruce Hayden said...

My short list would be Romney, Palin, Gingrich, and Huckleberry. If his brother hadn't left the White House less than 2 years ago, I would include Jeb Bush.

The problem, as I see it, is that while Democrats need to nominate unknowns to win the general election, Republicans invariably nominate someone who is well known to Republican voters. And, most often, it seems like the best known, and the one who has run the most times, is the one who gets the nomination.

Most of us just don't know enough about Pawlenty or Daniels to give them the nod. And, the same argument can be made for Thune, Pence, Barbour, Ryan, Petraeus, Paul, Bolton, etc. And who the heck are Herman Cain or Gary Johnson?

I do feel a bit sorry for Romney. He is the candidate whom I think could have beaten Obama last time around. He is smarter, more knowledgeable, has more Harvard degrees, has made a nice fortune in business, had executive experience, has a better looking wife and kids, etc. But it was McCain's turn, and he didn't have the temperament for the job.

Now, the country is tired of a Harvard degree passing for experience and competence. And is unlikely to vote for the guy who gave Mass. RomneyCare.

In short, Romney would be Obama-lite, at a time when the country is likely more interested in an anti-Obama.

Bender said...

(1) Truce Daniels is going absolutely nowhere, so let's just call a truce on him right now.

(2) If somebody disliked Yawnlenty, that would be an improvement -- at least they thought about him.

(3) RomneyCare.

(4) Seriously? Newt? He's a great ideas man, and was a good Speaker, but the opposition HATES him.

(5) OK, perhaps they don't hate Newt as much as the Sarahcudda, the only one with enough commonsense, a real life nose for what people think and want, and raw smarts, but the undeserved mouth-foaming hate from Dems and prissy elitist Republicans (the kind that just surrendered in the lame duck session after winning huge victories in the election) also doom her prospects. Many pansy Republicans, especially, would rather turn their guns around and fire their cannon into their own boat than support Sarah Palin.

Kirby Olson said...

"I just don't remember it as being that bad," Barbour said the other day.

I think that's enough to count him out.

It's a war of sound bytes, and you have to be telegenic, and produce lots of key moments where you look presidential.

That one remark by Barbour is enough to do him in, I should think. Imagine Goebbels' wife saying more or less the same thing, or one of his kids saying something like that (Goebbels shot them all so that they didn't have to face the music).

You need someone inclusive, who understands how to put Adam Smith out there next to Keynes, and can talk circles like a smooth lawyer, and have good keen judgement.

It's a very hard job, plus Obama is a lawyer, goodlooking, and understands the weight of words, and is very skillful at motivating his base when he wants to be.

I think the only one who can beat him is Huckabee.

mccullough said...

Daniels is the only one of these candidates who has been a very successful governor with fiscal issues. He's also very smart and articulate. He almost certainly would be the best President of the group. Pawlenty's pretty good as well.

The rest of the field ain't too good.

Romney was a one-term mediocre governor. Palin was a half-term governor and small-town mayor with not nearly enough substantive knowledge and experience to be President of the U.S., much less beat Obama on more than 6 states. Gingrich's only executive decisions were divorcing his first two wives. And Huckabee was a 10-year big-government governor with no accomplishments to speak of. Except for his stances on gay marriage and abortion, he could be Jerry Brown.

If we're going on superficiality, Thune is tall and good looking. He sort of looks like a middle-aged Tom Brady. So he's got a good shot to win the Republican nomination. But he would only beat Obama in a debate if you have the sound on the TV turned down.

The Musket said...

If we need someone that can use humor and charisma in general we have to go with Palin on the list. Huckabee is nothing more that a 'compassionate' regulator -- me, I'm not interested. The South won't necessarily vote for him -- especially after he agreed with Michelle O on that food thing.

Palin wouldn't roll over for Sharia law either and although she didn't run a long campaign, she's definitely been vetted and has learned media savvy.

I am a Palin fan, but not necessarily a Palin-for-President fan. I don't think she'd be as effective as we'd need her to be in office because of the opposition against her personally. Pity, I think she'd do well.

I'd love to see Fred Thompson or Christ Christy, although I'd hate to take Christy away from NJ -- they need him desperately.

Titus said...

Mitt Romney is the biggest flip flopper EVAH.

He wouldn't win any state in the south either. He's from Massachusetts, went to Harvard and is a Mormon-forgetaboutit.

Romenycare
Prochoice now prolife
Ralled against Eastern Elites-hilarious.
Loved Stem Cell Research-now not so much.
Doesn't want to go back to the time of "Reagan". Ouch, on video.

Oh and he is better for gays than Ted Kennedy-and sadly it is on video.

Palin or Huck-take your pick.

He would win in Utah though.

Titus said...

I guess the love for Scott Brown is gone.

Poor Scott Brown.

That lasted less than a year.

bagoh20 said...

Ryan / Christie or vise versa. They could win and would actually make a difference if they did. Otherwise, why have the election? This nation needs a new direction, not more of the chickenshit fence sitters who can fall of either side when the wind blows.

traditionalguy said...

The dream ticket is Palin and Cain. Both are good leaders and both appeal to voters.The nomination of a woman to lead the GOP Old Boys Club will be the ultimate cage fight of the 2012 campaign. My money is on the point guard who can run a damn fine team full of ...gasp...conservative women. The SaraCuda just does not know a woman's place, according to Rove and Romney.She will introduce them to a place called the land of losers. Check out your blogs, twitter, and face book to see her daily political barrages hitting their targets.

Penny said...

"I don't think we will repeat the idea of thinking someone like Obama, with limited experience in high office, is acceptable."

That's pretty funny, Cedarford.

And here's the rub...

VP candidate Sarah Palin's limited experience in 2008 was far superior to Presidential hopeful, Obama.

Now that Obama won that battle against McCain/Palin, to the dismay of many commenters here at Althouse, Palin can't hope to position herself, EVER again, as being more "experienced" for the role of President, than President Barrack Obama.

And frankly, nor can any other contenders from either party who have not been prior Presidents.

Seems to me that "experience" as Governor or Senator PALES to that "experience" of being President.

So???

Voila!

"Experience" will likely fall off the table as a winning talking point for ANY presidential hopeful... unless they are BHO."

Ha ha...So now what?

We've inadvertently "dumbed down" the "experience" requirement for future presidents. All in the name of "Hope and Change".

A good thing... or not?

Quayle said...

Huck would be the first republican to lose Utah in over 60 years.

Titus said...

Haley Barbour would be fab.

traditionalguy said...

Huckabee is a smooth talking Southern baptist preacher who always seems to know more than anyone else...ask him. He will alienate the independents who will not fall for that blowing himself up style of leadership. He is only being touted as a blocking move to Sarah Palins large margin of victory. The Southern Baptists will not allow women leaders because the men are so lazy that they need to use the women followers to do all of the work while the males goof off. That is the way it really is, folks.

Clyde said...

I like Marco Rubio, and I voted for him for Senator, but it is WAY too early to even be thinking about a presidential run for him. His resume is positively Obaman at this point.

peter hoh said...

I agree that Huckabee would do well in a debate with Obama. I suspect the same is true for Christie.

If the GOP settles on Huckabee prior to the primaries, he could do well in the general election.

But he won't make it through a competitive, hard fought primary. Huckabee doesn't have the backing of the business wing of the GOP, and someone else is going to hammer him on his pardon of the guy who went on to kill a couple of Washington police officers.

Re. Bruce Hayden @ 6:34 -- could someone explain to me why Jeb didn't run in 2000? He seems like the most competent of the Bush sons.

Palin has enough loyalists within the party to win the nomination, but her negatives with independent voters are too high.

Clyde said...

@ Penny

To paraphrase Reggie Jackson, Obama may be the straw that stirs the drink, but he can only stir it bad.

1jpb said...

Tradguy,

Watch your back.

You mess w/ Huck, you mess w/ Chuck.

traditionalguy said...

1jpb...Politics to gain power ain't bean bag. Huck is not God's candidate like he implies, so I'll take my chances. IMO Huck is an attack wolf dressed up in a sincere sheep's clothing.

Bruce Hayden said...

Re. Bruce Hayden @ 6:34 -- could someone explain to me why Jeb didn't run in 2000? He seems like the most competent of the Bush sons.

He had only been elected governor in 1998, while his brother had been elected first in 1994. It was the difference between 2 and 6 years as governor.

I remember the election of 1994, when both brothers were running for governor the first time. George W. squeaked by, and Jeb barely lost. The pundits at the time were saying that if Jeb won that election, he would be the best Bush to run for President. He didn't, and the rest is history.

But it is interesting to speculate how it might have gone down, if things had reversed election day 1994. In the 2000 election, Florida likely would not have been in play, and likely not Texas either. So, no fight between the Florida and U.S. Supreme Court as to the outcome. Plus, Jeb is likely to have done better with the Hispanic vote, given his wife and family (remember when his half-Hispanic son was rated like the #3 most eligible bachelor?) NM for one was close enough that it may easily have switched R as a result.

peter hoh said...

So, who's at the bottom of the list? I'm thinking Rick Santorum.

Revenant said...

I'm hoping for Daniels.

Bruce Hayden said...

1jpb...Politics to gain power ain't bean bag. Huck is not God's candidate like he implies, so I'll take my chances. IMO Huck is an attack wolf dressed up in a sincere sheep's clothing.

Maybe like a lot of people with Palin, but the more I see of Huckleberry, the less I like him. His TV show just creeps me out, esp. when he gets up there with his gee-tar.

His biggest problem though is that, like Romney, he is the candidate for a previous election cycle. He represents the religious right, and they are not going to win the election for anyone this time. He and Romney are the two candidates who are least likely to excite the Tea Party people. And energizing them is what I think will win the election.

1jpb said...

IMHO, It probably doesn't matter who makes it on the R side.

The strategy will be to run against BHO. I'm not sure that the particular flavor of the alternative will matter. Rather, the decision will be: same (BHO) vs new (insert generic R).

Sure, there is plenty of polling showing that some of the Rs do better vs BHO. But, as long as the Rs avoid someone totally unserious (e.g. O'Donnel, Maes, Palin?) the question will be BHO or not-BHO, where the particular flavor of the 'not' shouldn't matter too much. The current polling probably benefits the Rs who are already well known. But, a presidential run will necessarily ensure that any R nominee will become well known. So, this far out, I don't thing a strong polling result vs BHO means anything.

I think the Evangelicals could be scared into voting for Romney. Romney can run hard on the effect of the POTUS on social issues (i.e. SCOTUS) to the base, and the religious right will get show up on election day.

Tradguy,

I was kidding. Even though he's a huge Huckster, I don't really think Chuck Norris is after you.

But, it is totally likely that Huck will try to win you over by hunting you down and serenading you w/ his four string.

Revenant said...

He and Romney are the two candidates who are least likely to excite the Tea Party people.

Especially since he's to the left of George Bush on the economy.

Fred4Pres said...

I like Mitch Daniels but I have a feeling he is less motivated than Fred Thompson.

Synova said...

I thought Petraeus was a Democrat.

For real.

Fred4Pres said...

Imagine Rubio-Thompson. Has a ring to it, doesn't it.

1jpb said...

MarkFred4Pres

1jpb said...

MarcoFred4Pres

America's Politico said...

YOU ALL know I am right. I am correct. The GOP will get their behinds kicked so bad it will be sore/red for years to come in 2012.

Yes, it is December 2010, and the result of 2012 are known to you.

What can you do? Nothing. Not a thing. Start rolling over beginning Jan. 3. Yes, we won big in 2008, but this is going to be so much bigger that people are going to be talking about it for years to come.

Are you ready for being kicked? Are you ready for Political Football? Are you ready for the Nov. 2012 Tuesday night party?

Synova said...

I'm trying to imagine an Obama/Palin debate and I'm having a tough time. I think that Palin would be tearing into Obama the whole time, which would be her job at that point. What I can't decide is if Obama would have the self-control to avoid snide comments at a personal level.

Bender said...

if Obama would have the self-control to avoid snide comments at a personal level

He makes denigrating, contemptuous, snide comments at a personal level on a daily basis. What would ever lead you to even consider that he would stop then?

Alex said...

Isn't Jonah Goldberg a neocon hack?

HDHouse said...

a regular murderers row let me tell ya'

I'm more than happy with any of these sterling examples of medioctrity.

...and who left out Dan Quayle...for shame!

Juba Doobai! said...

Romney is the organizational front runner?!?!? ROFLMAO!!!

Let me correct Jonah Goldberg, an NRO Beltway Elite: Romney is the favorite of Beltway Elites. Palin is the GOP party builder who can reach the base like no one else can.

Huckabee is a vicious little prig. For a sense of humor, see Palin.

JAL said...

Petreaus.

Under the radar.

Princeton and Military.

Organizational and management skills.

Risk taker. Job getter-doner.

Sworn to uphold the Constitution and does without caveats.

Just a thought.

And I think he has a sense of humor.

I know he's smarter than the present POTUS. If that matters to anyone, really.

JAL said...

Actually the Repubs have more potential candidates than the Dems. And not just because there is a potential incumbent in office.

Who is really out there to run for the Dems? Besides BHO and Hillary?

(Algore, Kerry, Edwards have all committed some form of hari kari.)

JAL said...

@ Kirby Huckabee will take the whole south just on account of his name and faith.

Speaking from the South: No no no no no no no. (Inflected correctly.)

Stop writing us off as idiots.

Trooper York said...

I was just reading this book in the airport and it looks like Jack Ryan is gonna run again.

cubanbob said...

Unless the republicans ran Pat Buchanan is there a plausible republican candidate that won't defeat Obama?

Harry said...

Bruce Hayden said...Maybe like a lot of people with Palin, but the more I see of Huckleberry, the less I like him. His TV show just creeps me out, esp. when he gets up there with his gee-tar.

Agree. Can't stand him. He seems like a typical phony, smarmy, televangelist, and he has those cold, beady little eyes. I don't believe he has any political principles.

Newt is a total non-starter. He's just a self-important gasbag with a new ten-point program every day. Has to mention his Stepford wife Callista in every other sentence. There's nothing appealing about Newt.

Clyde said...

@ HDHouse

Before you criticize your brother for the potatoe in his eye, you should remove the medioctrity from your own.

Revenant said...

Let me correct Jonah Goldberg, an NRO Beltway Elite: Romney is the favorite of Beltway Elites.

"Romney is the organizational leader" just means "Romney has the lead in putting together his campaign organization", Juba. It doesn't mean he can win.

Palin is the GOP party builder who can reach the base like no one else can.

Palin is the GOP party builder who can reach the base and no one else.

davis,br said...

It's Sarah's to lose. Everything else is just gas.

Kirk Parker said...

peter,

Huck's parolee killed four officers.

rdkraus said...

Romney thought, and still thinks, that state run health care is a good idea.

What else do you need to know about him?

Palin. I can't get comfortable with the idea of her as president, yet more often than any of the others, she's on the right side of the issue, or presents the argument in a way that cuts through the crap and drives the Dem's nuts: think Death Panels.

Lotta names in there I don't know enough about.

michaele said...

If he decides to throw his hat in the ring and hence, participates in the debates, people are in for a big and pleasant surprise with Herman Cain.He is very articulate, has a sense of humor, has been a successful businessman, has a passion for this country and knows how to communicate the specialness of America. In a crazy way, it's almost a shame he is black because if the Repubs nominate him, it might look like a copy cat move...except he is a black man who will readily present his birth certificate. He's feisty and can handle an argument because he's been in talk radio for a while. He'll make things interesting and lively.

NotYourTypicalNewYorker said...

peter hoh said...

So, who's at the bottom of the list? I'm thinking Rick Santorum.


I'm thinking Barack Obama.

The Crack Emcee said...

As usual, I'm with Traditional Guy:

The only question is who the Saracudda's running mate will be for the political cage match of the new century! If you're not "down" with her yet - well you'd better get "down" with her - and fast.

In case you haven't noticed (and that in itself would say a lot) this thing's already started.

former law student said...

He and Romney are the two candidates who are least likely to excite the Tea Party people.

Especially since he's to the left of George Bush on the economy.


And we all know ideology is the most important factor driving the economy, just as it is with surgery.

In the operating room, Reagan joked, "Please tell me you're all Republicans." Giordano, a liberal Democrat, replied, "Today Mr. President we're all Republicans."

The GOP needs a competent executive candidate as well as some red meat for its base:

Romney-Palin 2012

You heard it here first.

Synova said...

It really depends on the economy.

If my teenagers all have jobs in 2012, Obama will get re-elected.

Revenant said...

"Especially since he's to the left of George Bush on the economy."

And we all know ideology is the most important factor driving the economy, just as it is with surgery.

If left-wing surgeons believed that the best form of surgery was to replace the body's organs with hand-picked government oversight committees, ideology would be as important in picking a surgeon as it is in picking a President.