November 7, 2010

"... Republicans won an even higher percentage of Senate races than House races..."

"... they won 65 percent of the 37 Senate races, versus approximately 56 percent of the 435 House races."

51 comments:

The Crack Emcee said...

Weeee are the champions, my friends,...and we'll keep on fiiiighting, 'till the end,...

edutcher said...

Very interesting stats, and they place a certain disappointment in not doing better in the Senate races in its proper perspective.

PS Alpha, Montagne, et al., complaining Ann is twisting the knife in 5, 4, 3...

The Crack Emcee said...

"twisting the knife"

It's you-know-what,...

America's Politico said...

The GOP will never win back the Senate. The GOP will never win the 2012 Presidency.

The most likely outcome: The GOP will lose the House in 2012.

Thus, GOP will have nothing come Nov. 2012: WH, Senate, and House.

How do you like your future? My crystal ball is amazing clear. There is total clarity here. Save yourself: Leave the GOP.

Florida Gator said...

All Democratic Senators voted the deciding vote on Obamacare, the House members did not!

AJ Lynch said...

I saw David Gergen the other night. He said the Tea Party was only partly successful because the Reps won the House but they lost the Senate! WTF ? Hello they added seats in both houses Mr. Dumbass Liberal Dweeb Apologist David Gergen.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

America's Politico just can't be for real. C'mon, fellow conservatives, 'fess up. Whose sock puppet is he?

Ben (The Tiger in Exile) said...

"America's Politico" is a conservative's distillation of the messages the media are pushing at us, no?

That was always my assumption.

Christopher said...

America's Politico is performance art. Awe is the proper response.

Fen said...

Agreed. This New Year's, Ann needs to poll on the Best Althousian Sockpuppet.

traditionalguy said...

Please don't do it America's Politico. You will jump the shark if you start telling the GOP that picking the dynamic Little Mitch Daniel as its candidate is its only hope. Besides that whopper has already been written by expert after expert this month.

garage mahal said...

Great. When are the tax cuts coming? Where are the jobs promised? When does ObamaCare get repealed? Where can I find a like-minded friend to make signs?

MadisonMan said...

Meanwhile, in Green Bay....

Tyrone Slothrop said...

On the other hand, garage is all too real.

Chase said...

The GOP will never win back the Senate.

Actually, it will almost impossible for the GOP to NOT win the Senate in 2012. The GOP did not lose even one seat they already had that was up for election this go around. In 2012 there will be 21 Democrat seats and 2 independent seats up for election, and only 10 Republican seats.

It's called Demographics.
The economy won't matter, the war(s) won't matter. And they will spell red. The only question is how big the Republican margin will be.

In the House - well, just take a look at Ann's post below about State Houses and Governorships - the people who set the District lines.

Can you say even bigger "GOP Sweep in 2012"?

Can you say "Goodbye Donkey"?

I knew you could.

stevenehrbar said...

The Republicans will keep the House no matter what.

There have been, since the ratification of the 17th Amendment, 20 flips of a chamber of Congress by a vote of the people. 17 of them happened when the incumbent President was the same party as the party that controlled the incumbent chamber. One was a result of both a weird muddle (the 2000 election) followed by a wartime rally effect in the next election (2002). Two happened in 1948, which was a strange election (that was the "Dewey Defeats Truman" year).

So, since a Democrat will be President in 2012, the House will remain Republican.

See, if people think things are going well, they vote for incumbents. (See Clinton in '96, and how the Republicans retained Congress, or see Reagan in '84, and how the Democrats retained the House.) If they think things are going poorly, people will vote against the President's party (see 2008 or 1996, where the party of the incumbent president lost the presidency but the incumbent opposite-party Congress stayed in power). Since the Republicans are both the House incumbents and not the president's party, they're in good shape for 2012.

Throw in that a bunch of state legislatures went GOP, while California handed over Congressional redistricting to an independent commission, and the post-Census 2012 districts are going to generally be more favorable for Republicans.

rhhardin said...

Senate districts are less gerrymandered though, so are easier to win with a sentiment shift.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

garage mahal said...

Great. When are the tax cuts coming? Where are the jobs promised? When does ObamaCare get repealed? Where can I find a like-minded friend to make signs?


I care about tax cuts only insofar as they force spending cuts. Spending cuts mean smaller government which means more personal liberty. Obamacare gets repealed when our miscreant president acknowledges the will of the American people and does not veto the bill repealing it. You're on your own with the signs.

Sixty Grit said...
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Capt. Schmoe said...

The republicans are going to have to produce something other than obstructionism.

The people are pissed off beyond party lines and are tired of the BS from both sides of the aisle.

2012 is up for grabs, we'll see who can close the deal and actually get something done.

Sixty Grit said...
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Sloanasaurus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sloanasaurus said...

I think the 65% stat is a little misleading. Republicans clearly underperformed in the Senate races relative to the other races. They would have won Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware with different non tea-party candidates. In California and Washington, they ran the best candidates they had.

However, as noted in Althouse's post on state elections, the trade off for the tea party senate candidates came in the states. While independent voters may have been hesitant to send sharron angles to the U.S. senate the sent droves of them to the state houses. This will have devastating effects on democrats electorally. For example, in Minnesota, the GOP took the state senate for the first time ever (since partisan elections were allowed in 1973). Now that the GOP controls both houses they can pass ballot initiatives that are popular in polling but have long been blocked by democrats in the legislature. This includes stuff like voter I.D. requirements, right to work laws, and other election reform. These reforms will further reduce the Democrat share of the vote here (as well as in other states).

The ultimate end electorally for democrats is the defeat of Obama in 2012 and the repeal of the entire Obama agenda.

former law student said...

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

Maguro said...

Not really a valid comparison since House districts are gerrymandered beyond belief and Senates seats aren't and can't be. There's no doubt the Rs left a few Senate seats on the table by nominating O'Donnell, Angle and perhaps Buck. Probably a fair price to pay for energy and enthusiasm that the tea partiers provided.

garage mahal said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
garage mahal said...

Obamacare gets repealed when our miscreant president acknowledges the will of the American people and does not veto the bill repealing it. You're on your own with the signs.

Shit. If I'd known that I might as well just sat home and jacked off.

America's Politico said...

Sixty-Grit: Methinks you are a total loser. Yes, my polling back-fired as I did not understand the voters. Big deal. But, I am determined to get back into the game. I predict a total wipe-out in 2012 for the GOP. You can take that to the bank. I am already taking classes in advance statistical/polling methods. There is no way the GOP can win the Presidency. No way. There is no Hollywood film producer/writer/director who can even imagine such a scenario. You should not try, unless you are at a mental institution. Get it? Give it up, guy. GOP is for losers.

Bruce Hayden said...

The republicans are going to have to produce something other than obstructionism.

As a certain well known pundit said, not only the party of no, but the party of hell no!

It is all relative - from one point of view or another. The call of obstructionism is usually a call by the left that the right is not on-board for their various priorities. But, that assumes the answer to the question of who gets to determine the agenda.

Well, the voters have spoken, and have demanded that federal spending be cut, health care "reform" be repealed, earmarks be eliminated, etc. And when Republican bills get to the Senate, and, if they survive the obstructionists in the Senate, get to the obstructionist in-chief to sign into law, who are going to be the obstructionists?

My position right now is that the Republicans have the mandate, and their policies and preferences will only fail to be enacted if obstructed by the Democrats in the Senate and the White House.

As I said, its all relative.

Penny said...

"Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss"

This meme is stale and destructive, no matter how many times it is repeated, or how true it is in the "scheme of things", both positive and negative.

In a period of massive uncertainty, faltering economics, high unemployment, increased terrorist threats and unending, line-in-the-sand politics, it seems to offer no "hope", and that's just plain bullshit.

Some few of us believe that those words are a "good thing", and TRUE, and POSITIVE. We believe it is exactly how it was designed to be by those who did the heavy lifting in 1776.

Never underestimate the value of CONTINUITY, and never forget that anarchists come in all shapes, flavors and sizes, if only to suit your personal discontent to their own unstated purposes.

I am suggesting that this very popular meme needs to GO AWAY unless it finds more realistic and discussable interpretations.

And that's the "rub", as Shakespeare would say. Memes are about emotions, and have not one thing to do with OBJECTIVITY.

Stop angsting about "bosses", and Presidents too. At least for now. They will always be there, just like our Constitution...Continuity.

Search for some semblance of OBJECTIVITY in our dazzling world of emotional memes.

Not easy, yet doable.

Never doubt.

Penny said...

Bruce?

Is that you?

I fear you have fallen victim to the MEME monster!

Snap out of it!

Alex said...

Don't you know that if the GOP House doesn't behave like the Dem house from the last 4 years, the voters will be outraged and vote the Dems back in? Obstructing the Obama agenda is exactly what American wants right now.

Alex said...

Althouse would vote for Pawlenty in 2012.

Penny said...

Sheesh, sorry, Bruce.

It's just that I thought you were an objective type losing himself to "the meme".

Was trying out my John Stewart impression.

*thud*

Methadras said...

American Politico is actually Titus, but then who is Titus?

New "Hussein" Ham said...

"The republicans are going to have to produce something other than obstructionism."

Sez you.

Frankly, obstructionism ... stopping Barack Obama ... represents an improvement over allowing him to destroy America with his Socialist policies.

If that's all the Republican Party can manage given the obstructionism of Harry Reid in the Senate and the obstructionist veto threats of Barack Obama, then Republicans will have achieved all the victory possible a party with limited power in the country.

Democrats still control the Senate and White House. Republicans command only a slight majority in the House ... and so Democrats are still effectively in control of the country until we can have another election or until Republicans arrest and imprison Barack Obama for the crimes he committed while trying to pass health care reform.

As a previous commenter noted ... 21 Democrat Senators are up for re-election in 2012 and Barack Obama will also have to stand before a largely unemployed electorate again and try to explain himself.

Morning in America is right around the corner. The good news is that good times are just ahead if we do the right thing.

Alex said...

Frankly, obstructionism ... stopping Barack Obama ... represents an improvement over allowing him to destroy America with his Socialist policies.

The public increased the GOP count in the House by +61 despite KNOWING that they were "anything but liberal Democrats" agenda. So the idea that suddenly in January 2011, the public will be revulsed by that is beyond any credulity.

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edutcher said...

Capt. Schmoe said...

The republicans are going to have to produce something other than obstructionism.

If he means a bill to repeal ZeroCare, I doubt most voters will construe that as obstructionism.

The Demos will do the obstructing. With the Senate and White house in Demo hands, all the Republicans will be able to do is propose ideas and pass them as legislation which will be shot down by the Senate or vetoed by The Zero.

JAY said...

>Great. When are the tax cuts coming?

Um, the Republicans want to extend the Bush tax cuts. That would be: keeping tax rates where they are today.

Can you get a new talking point please?

Sixty Grit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fred4Pres said...

It is not how many Senators you have but how you use them.

Brian said...

As far as the Obamacare, it can't substantially change for now, because Obama will veto it, or the Senate won't pass it. However, there's still the state lawsuits making their way through the courts. If that strikes down the individual mandate, it guts Obamacare. A Democratic congress would then have quickly passed an amendment to the law clarifying the individual mandate as a tax, and tried to pass it as quickly as possible, in order to preserve Obamacare. But with a Republican house, this won't happen.

As far as the other facets of the law, such as keeping your adult offspring on your insurance until they are 26, no lifetime insurance benefit limit, etc., they remain in effect. My insurance cost is increasing as a result. It would have gone up anyway, but it's really going up now.

Shanna said...

As far as the other facets of the law, such as keeping your adult offspring on your insurance until they are 26

I really sort of resent this one since, a. I was paying for my own insurance at 22, since I was an adult! And b. my company pays towards other employees family, but it still requires me to pay part of my insurance (even though the total cost for my insurance is much lower than coworkers with families). So in essence, I am subsidizing other people’s 26 year old “kids”.

c3 said...

Republicans need to remember 2006. Democrats swept in due to anti-war/war-weariness sentiment and a healthy dose of Abramoff scandal. By 2008 neither were big issues.

So Republicans need to consider that while jobs and deficit reduction are important and noble goals they may be forgotten by 2012, particularly if the economy improves.

Additionally, too much time and focus on health care will hurt them in the long run. Americans both love (i.e. choice and high tech) and hate (i.e. personal cost and bureaucracy) their healthcare system. Any one who "fixes" it will become the target of public wrath toward "what's wrong in healthcare". (Besides, since the BIG changes with healthcare don't start till 2014 doing nothing will allow Obamacare to be the focus of that ire.)

Cedarford said...

AJ Lynch said...
I saw David Gergen the other night. He said the Tea Party was only partly successful because the Reps won the House but they lost the Senate! WTF ? Hello they added seats in both houses Mr. Dumbass Liberal Dweeb Apologist David Gergen
======================
The tea party energy was a net positive. However, they lost the initial lesson of winning by nominating an electable "RINO traitor!" like Scott Brown in a state a far right zealot had no chance in. They nominated out of the mainstream candidates in Delaware, Nevada, Colorado, and Alaska with deep personal flaws that proved unelectable.

The Tea Party people in Nevada and Delaware were, in particular, dolts.

Delaware tea party voters traded a sure winner in Mike Castle for a sure loser in Christine O'Donnell. Nevada ones gave us the only Republican it appeared was inept enough to lose to the hated Harry Reid.

Big Mike said...

Two things wrong with this facile analysis.

First, the goal was ten seats so saying that "Republicans won an even higher percentage of Senate races ..." is a "how cares."

Second, the gerrymandering done by Democrats after the 2000 census absolutely guarantees a floor below which Democrats cannot go in the House of Representatives because certain congressional districts are packed with deep blue precincts. An example is VA-8 (Jim Moran), which has had nearly every majority Black precinct in Arlington and Fairfax counties, and nearly every limousine liberal precinct in Fairfax county packed into it after the last redistricting. So when you compare state-wide races with congressional races you are comparing apples to pomegranates.

former law student said...

My position right now is that the Republicans have the mandate,

I hope they fail. I'm going to make sure that John Boehner is a one-term House Speaker.

It's time to double down. Lose the LINOS, and provide the American people with the liberal government that they demanded in 2008, but which the Democrats were too candy-assed to provide them.

Big Mike said...

Make that "who cares."

Worthless spell checker.

Hagar said...

Cedarford seems to have quite an authoritarian attitude to life.
The fact remains that the "Tea Party" did not nominate any candidates anywhere. The candidates nominated themselves as candidates to run as the Republican candidates in the fall election, and the voters chose who they wanted to represent them in the primary elections.

Jim said...

It's time to double down. Lose the LINOS,

You already did that on November 2nd. If there are other LINOs that you'd like to cut loose as well, I'm sure that Pelosi as Minority Leader will helpfully oblige in 2012. It does seem to be the one thing she's really good at which has proven popular with voters.